Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.

Estimates of future climate change impacts using numerical impact models are commonly based on a limited selection of projections of climate and other key drivers. However, the availability of large ensembles of such projections offers an opportunity to estimate impact responses probabilistically. This study demonstrates an approach that combines model-based impact response surfaces (IRSs) with probabilistic projections of climate change and population to estimate the likelihood of exceeding pre-specified thresholds of impact. The changing likelihood of exceeding impact thresholds during the 21st century was estimated for selected indicators in three European case study regions (Iberian Peninsula, Scotland and Hungary), comparing simulations that incorporate adaptation to those without adaptation. The results showed high likelihoods of increases in heat-related human mortality and of yield decreases for some crops, whereas a decrease of NPP was estimated to be exceptionally unlikely. For a water reservoir in a Portuguese catchment, increased likelihoods of severe water scarce conditions were estimated for the current rice cultivation. Switching from rice to other crops with lower irrigation demand changes production risks, allowing for expansion of the irrigated areas but introducing a stronger sensitivity to changes in rainfall. The IRS-based risk assessment shown in this paper is of relevance for policy making by addressing the relative sensitivity of impacts to key climate and socio-economic drivers, and the urgency for action expressed as a time series of the likelihood of crossing critical impact thresholds. It also examines options to respond by incorporating alternative adaptation actions in the analysis framework, which may be useful for exploring the types, choice and timing of adaptation responses.

Literature review on the implications of decriminalization for the care of drug users in Portugal and Brazil. / Revisão da literatura sobre implicações para assistência de usuários de drogas da descriminalização em Portugal e Brasil.

INTRODUCTION: Substance use problems remain at the core of public concern in countries sharing a common culture and a distinct history like Brazil and Portugal. OBJECTIVE: To describe findings of scientific literature about the implications of drug legislation change for the care of drug users in Brazil and Portugal. METHODS: This is an integrative review of literature that considers inclusion and exclusion criteria, sample selection, analyses and categorization of 21 articles selected that were published in databases PubMed, SciELO and Biblioteca do Conhecimento on-line (B-ON) and included ordinances and laws related to the subject. RESULTS: We observed that production on the repercussions of changes of legislation on care is scarce. Alcohol and tobacco are still a matter of concern in both countries. In Portugal, concerns about heroin-related issues have declined in recent years, but opioids use prevalence rates remain well above those of Brazil. Crack-related problems are a Brazilian reality without parallel in Portugal. In both cases, some actions are in place to change the policy in favor of a reduced repressive approach, with differentiation between users and drug dealers, increased punishment of dealers and reduced punishment of drug users.

Os problemas relacionados ao uso de drogas se mantêm como foco de preocupação em países que têm uma história em comum e trajetórias distintas como Brasil e Portugal. Objetivo: descrever os achados na literatura científica sobre os impactos das mudanças na legislação sobre drogas na assistência a estas pessoas nos dois países. Método: revisão integrativa da literatura, por meio de critérios de inclusão e exclusão, seleção da amostra, análise e categorização dos estudos com a escolha de 21 artigos publicados nas bases PubMed, SciELO e Biblioteca do Conhecimento on-line, mais portarias e leis referentes ao tema. Resultados: Observa-se que é escassa a produção sobre as repercussões das mudanças da legislação para a assistência. Nos dois países, o álcool e o tabaco se mantêm como foco de preocupação. Em Portugal, a preocupação com os problemas relacionados ao uso de heroína diminuiu nos últimos anos, mas as taxas de prevalência do uso de opióides se mantêm muito acima das do Brasil. Os problemas com o crack configuram uma realidade brasileira sem paralelo em Portugal. Em ambos os casos, há iniciativas para a mudança da política em direção à diminuição da abordagem repressiva, com a diferenciação entre usuários e traficantes, o aumento da punição dos traficantes e abrandamento da punição dos usuários.

Revisão da literatura sobre implicações para assistência de usuários de drogas da descriminalização em Portugal e Brasil / Literature review on the implications of decriminalization for the care of drug users in Portugal and Brazil

Resumo Os problemas relacionados ao uso de drogas se mantêm como foco de preocupação em países que têm uma história em comum e trajetórias distintas como Brasil e Portugal. Objetivo: descrever os achados na literatura científica sobre os impactos das mudanças na legislação sobre drogas na assistência a estas pessoas nos dois países. Método: revisão integrativa da literatura, por meio de critérios de inclusão e exclusão, seleção da amostra, análise e categorização dos estudos com a escolha de 21 artigos publicados nas bases PubMed, SciELO e Biblioteca do Conhecimento on-line, mais portarias e leis referentes ao tema. Resultados: Observa-se que é escassa a produção sobre as repercussões das mudanças da legislação para a assistência. Nos dois países, o álcool e o tabaco se mantêm como foco de preocupação. Em Portugal, a preocupação com os problemas relacionados ao uso de heroína diminuiu nos últimos anos, mas as taxas de prevalência do uso de opióides se mantêm muito acima das do Brasil. Os problemas com o crack configuram uma realidade brasileira sem paralelo em Portugal. Em ambos os casos, há iniciativas para a mudança da política em direção à diminuição da abordagem repressiva, com a diferenciação entre usuários e traficantes, o aumento da punição dos traficantes e abrandamento da punição dos usuários.

Abstract Introduction: Substance use problems remain at the core of public concern in countries sharing a common culture and a distinct history like Brazil and Portugal. Objective: To describe findings of scientific literature about the implications of drug legislation change for the care of drug users in Brazil and Portugal. Methods: This is an integrative review of literature that considers inclusion and exclusion criteria, sample selection, analyses and categorization of 21 articles selected that were published in databases PubMed, SciELO and Biblioteca do Conhecimento on-line (B-ON) and included ordinances and laws related to the subject. Results: We observed that production on the repercussions of changes of legislation on care is scarce. Alcohol and tobacco are still a matter of concern in both countries. In Portugal, concerns about heroin-related issues have declined in recent years, but opioids use prevalence rates remain well above those of Brazil. Crack-related problems are a Brazilian reality without parallel in Portugal. In both cases, some actions are in place to change the policy in favor of a reduced repressive approach, with differentiation between users and drug dealers, increased punishment of dealers and reduced punishment of drug users.

Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.