Unmet healthcare needs, access to services and experiences with health providers among persons with spinal cord injury in Australia.

STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. OBJECTIVES: Appropriate and timely lifelong access to healthcare following a spinal cord injury (SCI) is critical, yet unmet healthcare needs in this population are common. Poor experiences with healthcare providers can be a barrier to health-seeking behaviour, and we hypothesised that there would be an association between unmet healthcare needs and care experiences. This study aimed to: (1) describe healthcare provider utilisation in the past year, unmet care needs and satisfaction with healthcare services; (2) explore the association between experiences with healthcare providers and unmet healthcare needs; and (3) explore the association between healthcare provider utilisation and participant characteristics, including unmet healthcare needs. SETTING: Community. METHODS: Analysis of data for 1579 Australians aged ≥ 18, who were ≥ 1-year post-SCI and living in the community. Bayesian penalised regression was used to model six binary outcomes: unmet healthcare needs; the use of general practitioners (GPs), allied health practitioners, rehabilitation specialists; medical specialists; and hospitalisations in the past 12-months. RESULTS: Unmet needs were reported by 17% of participants, with service cost the common deterrent. There was evidence of an effect for provider experiences on unmet healthcare needs, but no evidence that unmet healthcare needs was associated with the use of GPs, allied health practitioners, and rehabilitation or medical specialists. CONCLUSIONS: Unmet healthcare needs were reported in the context of high healthcare use and large proportions of secondary conditions in a cohort with long-term SCI. Improved health access for people with SCI include better primary-secondary care collaboration is needed.

The COST of liver disease: The Cirrhosis Outcomes Score in Trauma Study.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis in trauma patients is an indicator of poor prognosis, but current trauma injury grading systems do not take into account liver dysfunction as a risk factor. Our objective was to construct a simple clinical mortality prediction model in cirrhotic trauma patients: Cirrhosis Outcomes Score in Trauma (COST). METHODS: Trauma patients with pre-existing cirrhosis or liver dysfunction who were admitted to our ACS Level I trauma center between 2013 and 2021 were reviewed. Patients with significant acute liver trauma (AAST Grade ≥ 3) or those that developed acute liver dysfunction while admitted were excluded. Demographics as well as ISS, MELD, complications, and mortality were evaluated. COST was defined as the sum of age, ISS, and MELD. Univariate and multivariable analysis was used to determine independent predictors of mortality. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was calculated to assess the ability of COST to predict mortality. RESULTS: A total of 318 patients were analyzed of which the majority were males 214 (67.3%) who suffered blunt trauma 305 (95.9%). Mortality at 30-days, 60-days, and 90-days was 20.4%, 23.6%, and 25.5%, respectively. COST was associated with inpatient, 30-day, and 90-day mortality on regression analyses and the AUROC for COST predicting mortality at these respective time points was 0.810, 0.801, and 0.813. CONCLUSION: Current trauma injury grading systems do not take into account liver dysfunction as a risk factor. COST is highly predictive of mortality in cirrhotic trauma patients. The simplicity of the score makes it useful in guiding clinical care and in optimizing goals of care discussions. Future studies to validate this prediction model are required prior to clinical use.

Economic evaluation of shortened, bedaquiline-containing treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (STREAM stage 2): a within-trial analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The STREAM stage 2 trial assessed two bedaquiline-containing regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a 9-month all-oral regimen and a 6-month regimen containing an injectable drug for the first 2 months. We did a within-trial economic evaluation of these regimens. METHODS: STREAM stage 2 was an international, phase 3, non-inferiority randomised trial in which participants with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis were randomly assigned (1:2:2:2) to the 2011 WHO regimen (terminated early), a 9-month injectable-containing regimen (control regimen), a 9-month all-oral regimen with bedaquiline (oral regimen), or a 6-month regimen with bedaquiline and an injectable for the first 2 months (6-month regimen). We prospectively collected direct and indirect costs and health-related quality of life data from trial participants until week 76 of follow-up. Cost-effectiveness of the oral and 6-month regimens versus control was estimated in four countries (oral regimen) and two countries (6-month regimen), using health-related quality of life for cost-utility analysis and trial efficacy for cost-effectiveness analysis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN18148631. FINDINGS: 300 participants were included in the economic analyses (Ethiopia, 61; India, 142; Moldova, 51; Uganda, 46). In the cost-utility analysis, the oral regimen was not cost-effective in Ethiopia, India, Moldova, and Uganda from either a provider or societal perspective. In Moldova, the oral regimen was dominant from a societal perspective. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the oral regimen was likely to be cost-effective from a provider perspective at willingness-to-pay thresholds per additional favourable outcome of more than US$4500 in Ethiopia, $1900 in India, $3950 in Moldova, and $7900 in Uganda, and from a societal perspective at thresholds of more than $15 900 in Ethiopia, $3150 in India, and $4350 in Uganda, while in Moldova the oral regimen was dominant. In Ethiopia and India, the 6-month regimen would cost tuberculosis programmes and participants less than the control regimen and was highly likely to be cost-effective in both cost-utility analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. Reducing the bedaquiline price from $1·81 to $1·00 per tablet made the oral regimen cost-effective in the provider-perspective cost-utility analysis in India and Moldova and dominate over the control regimen in the provider-perspective cost-effectiveness analysis in India. INTERPRETATION: At current costs, the oral bedaquiline-containing regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis is unlikely to be cost-effective in many low-income and middle-income countries. The 6-month regimen represents a cost-effective alternative if injectable use for 2 months is acceptable. FUNDING: USAID and Janssen Research & Development.

Diagnostic Inaccuracies Using Extended Focused Assessment With Sonography in Trauma for Traumatic Pneumothorax.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic pneumothorax (PTX) can be deadly, and rapid diagnosis is vital. Ultrasound (US) is rapidly gaining acceptance as an accurate bedside diagnostic tool. While making the diagnosis is important, not all PTX require tube thoracostomy. Our goal was to evaluate the predictive ability of ultrasound in identifying clinically significant PTX. METHODS: Over 13 months, data was collected on patients undergoing evaluation for trauma. Patients were included if they underwent US, radiograph chest X-ray (CXR), and computed tomography of the chest. Predictive ability of ultrasound was evaluated in identifying clinically significant PTX. RESULTS: Ninety-four patients received evaluation by all 3 modalities. Of these, 32% were diagnosed with PTX. Sixteen patients (17%) had a clinically significant PTX. Chest X-ray and US both had a sensitivity of 75%; however, US had more than twice as many false positives, resulting in a much lower positive predictive value (63% vs 80%). CONCLUSIONS: While US can reliably rule out PTX, it may be overly sensitive diagnosing clinically significant PTX. Ultrasound alone should not be used in determining the need for tube thoracostomy as many patients will not require acute intervention.

Economic evaluation of short treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, Ethiopia and South Africa: the STREAM trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate cost changes for health systems and participants, resulting from switching to short treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. METHODS: We compared the costs to health systems and participants of long (20 to 22 months) and short (9 to 11 months) MDR tuberculosis regimens in Ethiopia and South Africa. Cost data were collected from participants in the STREAM phase-III randomized controlled trial and we estimated health-system costs using bottom-up and top-down approaches. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by calculating the incremental cost per unfavourable outcome avoided. FINDINGS: Health-care costs per participant in South Africa were 8340.7 United States dollars (US$) with the long and US$ 6618.0 with the short regimen; in Ethiopia, they were US$ 6096.6 and US$ 4552.3, respectively. The largest component of the saving was medication costs in South Africa (67%; US$ 1157.0 of total US$ 1722.8) and social support costs in Ethiopia (35%, US$ 545.2 of total US$ 1544.3). In Ethiopia, trial participants on the short regimen reported lower expenditure for supplementary food (mean reduction per participant: US$ 225.5) and increased working hours (i.e. 667 additional hours over 132 weeks). The probability that the short regimen was cost-effective was greater than 95% when the value placed on avoiding an unfavourable outcome was less than US$ 19 000 in Ethiopia and less than US$ 14 500 in South Africa. CONCLUSION: The short MDR tuberculosis treatment regimen was associated with a substantial reduction in health-system costs and a lower financial burden for participants.

Advances in clinical trial design: Weaving tomorrow's TB treatments.

Christian Lienhardt and co-authors discuss the conclusions of the PLOS Medicine Collection on advances in clinical trial design for development of new tuberculosis treatments.

Cost-effectiveness of intrapleural use of tissue plasminogen activator and DNase in pleural infection: evidence from the MIST2 randomised controlled trial.

The MIST2 (Second Multicentre Intrapleural Sepsis Trial) trial showed that combined intrapleural use of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and recombinant human DNase was effective when compared with single agents or placebo. However, the treatment costs are significant and overall cost-effectiveness of combined therapy remains unclear.An economic evaluation of the MIST2 trial was performed to assess the cost-effectiveness of combined therapy. Costs included were those related to study medications, initial hospital stay and subsequent hospitalisations. Outcomes were measured in terms of life-years gained. All costs were reported in euro and in 2016 prices.Mean annual costs were lowest in the t-PA-DNase group (EUR 10 605 for t-PA, EUR 17 856 for DNase, EUR 13 483 for placebo and EUR 7248 for t-PA-DNase; p=0.209). Mean 1-year life expectancy was 0.988 for t-PA, 0.923 for DNase, and 0.969 for both placebo and t-PA-DNase (p=0.296). Both DNase and placebo were less effective, in terms of life-years gained, and more costly than t-PA. When placebo was compared with t-PA-DNase, the incremental cost per life-year gained of placebo was EUR 1.6 billion, with a probability of 0.85 of t-PA-DNase being cost-effective.This study demonstrates that combined t-PA-DNase is likely to be highly cost-effective. In light of this evidence, a definitive trial designed to facilitate a thorough economic evaluation is warranted to provide further evidence on the cost-effectiveness of this promising combined intervention.

Comparison of estimated energy requirements using predictive equations with total energy expenditure measured by the doubly labelled water method in acute spinal cord injury.

STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, observational OBJECTIVES: To evaluate agreement between a reference method (doubly labelled water, DLW) of total energy expenditure (TEE) and published equations for estimating energy requirements in acute spinal cord injury (SCI). SETTING: Victoria, Australia METHODS: Twenty participants (18 male) within 8 weeks of traumatic SCI completed DLW, anthropometric and dietary intake assessments. Energy requirements were predicted using Harris-Benedict, Schofield, Henry, Nelson, Buchholz and Chun equations, multiplied by a combined activity and stress factor of 1.3, and the ratio method (kJ/kg body weight). Fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) were calculated from TBW-derived DLW and from bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS). RESULTS: Median time since injury was 41 days. Median TEE was 9.1 MJ. Fair agreement was found between TEE and predicted energy requirements for the Chun (rc = 0.39), the Harris-Benedict equation (rc = 0.30), the ratio method (rc = 0.23) and the Buchholz (rc = 0.31) and Nelson equations (rc = 0.35), which incorporate measures of FFM and/or FM. Other equations showed weak concordance with DLW. When two hypermetabolic patients were removed, agreement between TEE and predicted energy requirements using the Buchholz equation increased to substantial (rc = 0.72) and using the Nelson (rc = 0.53) and Chun equations (rc = 0.53) increased to moderate. The Buchholz equation had the smallest limits of agreement (-2.4-2.3 MJ/d). CONCLUSION: The population-specific Buchholz equation that incorporates FFM, predicted from either BIS or DLW, demonstrated the best agreement in patients with acute SCI. SPONSORSHIP: The study was funded by grants from the Institute for Safety, Compensation and Recovery Research (ISCRR Project # NGE-E-13-078) and Austin Medical Research Foundation. M Panisset was supported by an Australian Postgraduate Award.

A randomised controlled trial to compare the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of doxycycline (200 mg/day) with that of oral prednisolone (0.5 mg/kg/day) for initial treatment of bullous pemphigoid: the Bullous Pemphigoid Steroids and Tetracyclines (BLISTER) trial.

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an autoimmune blistering skin disorder with increased morbidity and mortality in the elderly. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of a strategy of initiating BP treatment with oral doxycycline or oral prednisolone. We hypothesised that starting treatment with doxycycline gives acceptable short-term blister control while conferring long-term safety advantages over starting treatment with oral prednisolone. DESIGN: Pragmatic multicentre two-armed parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation. SETTING: A total of 54 dermatology secondary care centres in the UK and seven in Germany. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with BP [three or more blisters at two sites and positive direct and/or indirect immunofluorescence (immunoglobulin G and/or complement component 3 immunofluorescence at the dermal-epidermal junction)] and able to give informed consent. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were allocated using online randomisation to initial doxycycline treatment (200 mg/day) or prednisolone (0.5 mg/kg/day). Up to 30 g/week of potent topical corticosteroids was permitted for weeks 1-3. After 6 weeks, clinicians could switch treatments or alter the prednisolone dose as per normal practice. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes: (1) the proportion of participants with three or fewer blisters at 6 weeks (investigator blinded) and (2) the proportion with severe, life-threatening and fatal treatment-related events at 52 weeks. A regression model was used in the analysis adjusting for baseline disease severity, age and Karnofsky score, with missing data imputed. Secondary outcomes included the effectiveness of blister control after 6 weeks, relapses, related adverse events and quality of life. The economic evaluation involved bivariate regression of costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from a NHS perspective. RESULTS: In total, 132 patients were randomised to doxycycline and 121 to prednisolone. The mean patient age was 77.7 years and baseline severity was as follows: mild 31.6% (three to nine blisters), moderate 39.1% (10-30 blisters) and severe 29.3% (> 30 blisters). For those starting on doxycycline, 83 out of 112 (74.1%) had three or fewer blisters at 6 weeks, whereas for those starting on prednisolone 92 out of 101 (91.1%) had three or fewer blisters at 6 weeks, an adjusted difference of 18.6% in favour of prednisolone [90% confidence interval (CI) 11.1% to 26.1%], using a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) analysis. Per-protocol analysis showed similar results: 74.4% compared with 92.3%, an adjusted difference of 18.7% (90% CI 9.8% to 27.6%). The rate of related severe, life-threatening and fatal events at 52 weeks was 18.2% for those started on doxycycline and 36.6% for those started on prednisolone (mITT analysis), an adjusted difference of 19.0% (95% CI 7.9% to 30.1%; p = 0.001) in favour of doxycycline. Secondary outcomes showed consistent findings. There was no significant difference in costs or QALYs per patient at 1 year between doxycycline-initiated therapy and prednisolone-initiated therapy (incremental cost of doxycycline-initiated therapy £959, 95% CI -£24 to £1941; incremental QALYs of doxycycline-initiated therapy -0.024, 95% CI -0.088 to 0.041). Using a willingness-to-pay criterion of < £20,000 per QALY gained, the net monetary benefit associated with doxycycline-initiated therapy was negative but imprecise (-£1432, 95% CI -£3094 to £230). CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of starting BP patients on doxycycline is non-inferior to standard treatment with oral prednisolone for short-term blister control and considerably safer in the long term. The limitations of the trial were the wide non-inferiority margin, the moderate dropout rate and that serious adverse event collection was unblinded. Future work might include inducing remission with topical or oral corticosteroids and then randomising to doxycycline or prednisolone for maintenance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13704604. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Doxycycline versus prednisolone as an initial treatment strategy for bullous pemphigoid: a pragmatic, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid is a blistering skin disorder with increased mortality. We tested whether a strategy of starting treatment with doxycycline gives acceptable short-term blister control while conferring long-term safety advantages over starting treatment with oral corticosteroids. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial of adults with bullous pemphigoid (three or more blisters at two or more sites and linear basement membrane IgG or C3). Participants were randomly assigned to doxycycline (200 mg per day) or prednisolone (0·5 mg/kg per day) using random permuted blocks of randomly varying size, and stratified by baseline severity (3-9, 10-30, and >30 blisters for mild, moderate, and severe disease, respectively). Localised adjuvant potent topical corticosteroids (<30 g per week) were permitted during weeks 1-3. The non-inferiority primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants with three or fewer blisters at 6 weeks. We assumed that doxycycline would be 25% less effective than corticosteroids with a 37% acceptable margin of non-inferiority. The primary safety outcome was the proportion with severe, life-threatening, or fatal (grade 3-5) treatment-related adverse events by 52 weeks. Analysis (modified intention to treat [mITT] for the superiority safety analysis and mITT and per protocol for non-inferiority effectiveness analysis) used a regression model adjusting for baseline disease severity, age, and Karnofsky score, with missing data imputed. The trial is registered at ISRCTN, number ISRCTN13704604. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2009, and Oct 31, 2013, 132 patients were randomly assigned to doxycycline and 121 to prednisolone from 54 UK and seven German dermatology centres. Mean age was 77·7 years (SD 9·7) and 173 (68%) of 253 patients had moderate-to-severe baseline disease. For those starting doxycycline, 83 (74%) of 112 patients had three or fewer blisters at 6 weeks compared with 92 (91%) of 101 patients on prednisolone, an adjusted difference of 18·6% (90% CI 11·1-26·1) favouring prednisolone (upper limit of 90% CI, 26·1%, within the predefined 37% margin). Related severe, life-threatening, and fatal events at 52 weeks were 18% (22 of 121) for those starting doxycycline and 36% (41 of 113) for prednisolone (mITT), an adjusted difference of 19·0% (95% CI 7·9-30·1), p=0·001. INTERPRETATION: Starting patients on doxycycline is non-inferior to standard treatment with oral prednisolone for short-term blister control in bullous pemphigoid and significantly safer in the long-term. FUNDING: NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Profile and costs of secondary conditions resulting in emergency department presentations and readmission to hospital following traumatic spinal cord injury.

INTRODUCTION: People with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) face complex challenges in their care, recovery and life. Secondary conditions can develop to involve many body systems and can impact health, function, quality of life, and community participation. These secondary conditions can be costly, and many are preventable. The aim of this study was to describe the type and direct costs of secondary conditions requiring readmission to hospital, or visit to an emergency department (ED), within the first two years following traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using population-level linked data from hospital ED and admission datasets was undertaken in Victoria, Australia. The incidence and direct treatment costs of readmission to hospital and ED visit within 2-years post-injury for secondary conditions related to SCI were measured for the 356 persons with traumatic SCI with a date of injury from 2008 to 2011. RESULTS: Of the 356 cases, 141 (40%) experienced 366 (median 2, range 1-11) readmissions to hospital for secondary conditions. 95 (27%) visited an ED at least once, within two years of injury for a secondary condition. The cost of hospital readmissions was AUD$5,553,004 and AUD$87,790 for ED visits. The mean±SD cost was AUD$15,172±$20,957 per readmission and AUD$670±$198 per ED visit. Urological conditions (e.g. urinary tract infection) were most common, followed by pressure areas/ulcers for readmissions, and fractures in the ED. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalisation for complications within two years of traumatic SCI was common and costly in Victoria, Australia. Improved bladder and pressure area management could result in substantial morbidity and cost savings following SCI.

A multicentre randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of continuous positive airway pressure for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome in older people: PREDICT.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic and economic benefits of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) have been established in middle-aged people. In older people there is a lack of evidence. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical efficacy of CPAP in older people with OSAS and to establish its cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A randomised, parallel, investigator-blinded multicentre trial with within-trial and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: Two hundred and seventy-eight patients, aged ≥ 65 years with newly diagnosed OSAS [defined as oxygen desaturation index at ≥ 4% desaturation threshold level for > 7.5 events/hour and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score of ≥ 9] recruited from 14 hospital-based sleep services across the UK. INTERVENTIONS: CPAP with best supportive care (BSC) or BSC alone. Autotitrating CPAP was initiated using standard clinical practice. BSC was structured advice on minimising sleepiness. COPRIMARY OUTCOMES: Subjective sleepiness at 3 months, as measured by the ESS (ESS mean score: months 3 and 4) and cost-effectiveness over 12 months, as measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) calculated using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and health-care resource use, information on which was collected monthly from patient diaries. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Subjective sleepiness at 12 months (ESS mean score: months 10, 11 and 12) and objective sleepiness, disease-specific and generic quality of life, mood, functionality, nocturia, mobility, accidents, cognitive function, cardiovascular risk factors and events at 3 and 12 months. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy-eight patients were randomised to CPAP (n = 140) or BSC (n = 138) over 27 months and 231 (83%) patients completed the trial. Baseline ESS score was similar in both groups [mean (standard deviation; SD) CPAP 11.5 (3.3), BSC 11.4 (4.2)]; groups were well balanced for other characteristics. The mean (SD) in ESS score at 3 months was -3.8 (0.4) in the CPAP group and -1.6 (0.3) in the BSC group. The adjusted treatment effect of CPAP compared with BSC was -2.1 points [95% confidence interval (CI) -3.0 to -1.3 points; p < 0.001]. At 12 months the effect was -2.0 points (95% CI -2.8 to -1.2 points; p < 0.001). The effect was greater in patients with increased CPAP use or higher baseline ESS score. The number of QALYs calculated using the EQ-5D was marginally (0.005) higher with CPAP than with BSC (95% CI -0.034 to 0.044). The average cost per patient was £1363 (95% CI £1121 to £1606) for those allocated to CPAP and £1389 (95% CI £1116 to £1662) for those allocated to BSC. On average, costs were lower in the CPAP group (mean -£35; 95% CI -£390 to £321). The probability that CPAP was cost-effective at thresholds conventionally used by the NHS (£20,000 per QALY gained) was 0.61. QALYs calculated using the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions were 0.018 higher in the CPAP group (95% CI 0.003 to 0.034 QALYs) and the probability that CPAP was cost-effective was 0.96. CPAP decreased objective sleepiness (p = 0.02), increased mobility (p = 0.03) and reduced total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.05, p = 0.04, respectively) at 3 months but not at 12 months. In the BSC group, there was a fall in systolic blood pressure of 3.7 mmHg at 12 months, which was not seen in the CPAP group (p = 0.04). Mood, functionality, nocturia, accidents, cognitive function and cardiovascular events were unchanged. There were no medically significant harms attributable to CPAP. CONCLUSION: In older people with OSAS, CPAP reduces sleepiness and is marginally more cost-effective than BSC over 12 months. Further work is required in the identification of potential biomarkers of sleepiness and those patients at increased risk of cognitive impairment. Early detection of which could be used to inform the clinician when in the disease cycle treatment is needed to avert central nervous system sequelae and to assist patients decision-making regarding treatment and compliance. Treatment adherence is also a challenge in clinical trials generally, and adherence to CPAP therapy in particular is a recognised concern in both research studies and clinical practice. Suggested research priorities would include a focus on optimisation of CPAP delivery or support and embracing the technological advances currently available. Finally, the improvements in quality of life in trials do not appear to reflect the dramatic changes noted in clinical practice. There should be a greater focus on patient centred outcomes which would better capture the symptomatic improvement with CPAP treatment and translate these improvements into outcomes which could be used in health economic analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN90464927. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 40. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Cannabinoid Use in Progressive Inflammatory brain Disease (CUPID) trial: a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel-group multicentre trial and economic evaluation of cannabinoids to slow progression in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The Cannabinoid Use in Progressive Inflammatory brain Disease (CUPID) trial aimed to determine whether or not oral Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ(9)-THC) slowed the course of progressive multiple sclerosis (MS); evaluate safety of cannabinoid administration; and, improve methods for testing treatments in progressive MS. OBJECTIVES: There were three objectives in the CUPID study: (1) to evaluate whether or not Δ(9)-THC could slow the course of progressive MS; (2) to assess the long-term safety of Δ(9)-THC; and (3) to explore newer ways of conducting clinical trials in progressive MS. DESIGN: The CUPID trial was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, multicentre trial. Patients were randomised in a 2 : 1 ratio to Δ(9)-THC or placebo. Randomisation was balanced according to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, study site and disease type. Analyses were by intention to treat, following a pre-specified statistical analysis plan. A cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) substudy, Rasch measurement theory (RMT) analyses and an economic evaluation were undertaken. SETTING: Twenty-seven UK sites. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18-65 years with primary or secondary progressive MS, 1-year evidence of disease progression and baseline EDSS 4.0-6.5. INTERVENTIONS: Oral Δ(9)-THC (maximum 28 mg/day) or matching placebo. ASSESSMENT VISITS: Three and 6 months, and then 6-monthly up to 36 or 42 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were time to EDSS progression, and change in Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale-29 version 2 (MSIS-29v2) 20-point physical subscale (MSIS-29phys) score. Various secondary patient- and clinician-reported outcomes and MRI outcomes were assessed. RMT analyses examined performance of MS-specific rating scales as measurement instruments and tested for a symptomatic or disease-modifying treatment effect. Economic evaluation estimated mean incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: Effectiveness - recruitment targets were achieved. Of the 498 randomised patients (332 to active and 166 to placebo), 493 (329 active and 164 placebo) were analysed. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: no significant treatment effect; hazard ratio EDSS score progression (active : placebo) 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.23]; and estimated between-group difference in MSIS-29phys score (active-placebo) -0.9 points (95% CI -2.0 to 0.2 points). Secondary clinical and MRI outcomes: no significant treatment effects. Safety - at least one serious adverse event: 35% and 28% of active and placebo patients, respectively. RMT analyses - scale evaluation: MSIS-29 version 2, MS Walking Scale-12 version 2 and MS Spasticity Scale-88 were robust measurement instruments. There was no clear symptomatic or disease-modifying treatment effect. Economic evaluation - estimated mean incremental cost to NHS over usual care, over 3 years £27,443.20 per patient. No between-group difference in QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The CUPID trial failed to demonstrate a significant treatment effect in primary or secondary outcomes. There were no major safety concerns, but unwanted side effects seemed to affect compliance. Participants were more disabled than in previous studies and deteriorated less than expected, possibly reducing our ability to detect treatment effects. RMT analyses supported performance of MS-specific rating scales as measures, enabled group- and individual person-level examination of treatment effects, but did not influence study inferences. The intervention had significant additional costs with no improvement in health outcomes; therefore, it was dominated by usual care and not cost-effective. Future work should focus on determining further factors to predict clinical deterioration, to inform the development of new studies, and modifying treatments in order to minimise side effects and improve study compliance. The absence of disease-modifying treatments in progressive MS warrants further studies of the cannabinoid pathway in potential neuroprotection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN62942668. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme, the Medical Research Council Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, Multiple Sclerosis Society and Multiple Sclerosis Trust. The report will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Continuous positive airway pressure in older people with obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (PREDICT): a 12-month, multicentre, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic and economic benefits of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) syndrome have been established in middle-aged people; however, the benefits in older people are unknown. This trial was designed to address this evidence gap. METHODS: This 12-month, multicentre, randomised trial enrolled patients across 14 National Health Service sleep centres in the UK. Consecutive patients aged 65 years or older with newly diagnosed OSA syndrome were eligible to join the trial. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) into parallel groups to receive either CPAP with best supportive care (BSC) or BSC alone for 12 months. Randomisation was done by the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit with computer-generated randomisation. The main investigator at each centre was masked to the trial randomisation. Coprimary endpoints were Epworth sleepiness score (ESS) at 3 months and cost-effectiveness over the 12-month trial period. Secondary outcomes were subjective sleepiness at 12 months, plus objective sleepiness, quality of life, mood, functionality, nocturia, mobility, accidents, cognitive function, and cardiovascular risk factors and events at 3 months and 12 months. The analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN90464927. FINDINGS: Between Feb 24, 2010, and May 30, 2012, 278 patients were randomly assigned to the trial, of whom 231 (83%) completed the trial. 140 patients were allocated to and received CPAP plus BSC and 138 were allocated to and received BSC only. CPAP reduced ESS by 2·1 points (95% CI -3·0 to -1·3; p<0·0001) at 3 months for 124 (89%) of 140 patients compared with 124 (90%) of 138 patients given BSC, and by 2·0 points (-2·8 to -1·2; p<0·0001) at 12 months for 116 patients compared with 122 patients given BSC. The effect was greater in patients with higher CPAP usage or higher baseline ESS. Quality-adjusted life-years were similar between the groups (treatment effect 0·01 (95% CI -0·03 to 0·04; p=0·787) and health-care costs were marginally reduced with CPAP (-£35, -390 to 321; p=0·847). CPAP improved objective sleepiness (p=0·024), mobility (p=0·029), total cholesterol (p=0·048), and LDL cholesterol (p=0·042) at 3 months, but these were not sustained at 12 months. Measures of mood, functionality, nocturia, accidents, cognitive function, and cardiovascular events remained unchanged. Systolic blood pressure fell in the BSC group. 37 serious adverse events occurred in the CPAP group, and 22 in BSC group; all were independently classified as being unrelated to the trial and no significant harm was attributed to CPAP use. INTERPRETATION: In older people with OSA syndrome, CPAP reduces sleepiness and is marginally more cost effective over 12 months than is BSC alone. On the basis of these results, we recommend that CPAP treatment should be offered routinely to older patients with OSA syndrome. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment, NIHR Respiratory Biomedical Research Unit at the Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust and Imperial College London.

Prophylactic antibiotics to prevent cellulitis of the leg: economic analysis of the PATCH I & II trials.

BACKGROUND: Cellulitis (erysipelas) is a recurring and debilitating bacterial infection of the skin and underlying tissue. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic antibiotic treatment to prevent the recurrence of cellulitis using low dose penicillin V in patients following a first episode (6 months prophylaxis) and more recurrent cellulitis (12 months prophylaxis, or 6 months in those declining 12 months). METHODS: Within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using the findings of two randomised placebo-controlled multicentre trials (PATCH I and PATCH II), in which patients recruited in the UK and Ireland were followed-up for up to 3 years. Incremental cost, reduction in recurrence, cost per recurrence prevented and cost/QALY were estimated. National unit and reference costs for England in 2010 were applied to resource use, exploring NHS and societal perspectives. A total of 397 patients from the two trials contributed to the analysis. RESULTS: There was a 29% reduction in the number of recurrences occurring within the trial (IRR: 0.71 95%CI: 0.53 to 0.90, p = 0.02), corresponding to an absolute reduction of recurrence of 0.31 recurrences/patient (95%CI: 0.05 to 0.59, p = 0.02). Incremental costs of prophylaxis suggested a small cost saving but were not statistically significant, comparing the two groups. If a decision-maker is willing to pay up to £25,000/QALY then there is a 66% probability of antibiotic prophylaxis being cost-effective from an NHS perspective, rising to 76% probability from a secondary, societal perspective. CONCLUSION: Following first episode or recurrent cellulitis of the leg, prophylactic low dose penicillin is a very low cost intervention which, on balance, is effective and cost-effective at preventing subsequent attacks. Antibiotic prophylaxis reduces cellulitis recurrence by nearly a third but is not associated with a significant increase in costs.

Intensive exercise program after spinal cord injury ("Full-On"): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Rehabilitation after spinal cord injury (SCI) has traditionally involved teaching compensatory strategies for identified impairments and deficits in order to improve functional independence. There is some evidence that regular and intensive activity-based therapies, directed at activation of the paralyzed extremities, promotes neurological improvement. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of a 12-week intensive activity-based therapy program for the whole body with a program of upper body exercise. METHODS/DESIGN: A multicenter, parallel group, assessor-blinded randomized controlled trial will be conducted. One hundred eighty-eight participants with spinal cord injury, who have completed their primary rehabilitation at least 6 months prior, will be recruited from five SCI units in Australia and New Zealand. Participants will be randomized to an experimental or control group. Experimental participants will receive a 12-week program of intensive exercise for the whole body, including locomotor training, trunk exercises and functional electrical stimulation-assisted cycling. Control participants will receive a 12-week intensive upper body exercise program. The primary outcome is the American Spinal Injuries Association (ASIA) Motor Score. Secondary outcomes include measurements of sensation, function, pain, psychological measures, quality of life and cost effectiveness. All outcomes will be measured at baseline, 12 weeks, 6 months and 12 months by blinded assessors. Recruitment commenced in January 2011. DISCUSSION: The results of this trial will determine the effectiveness of a 12-week program of intensive exercise for the whole body in improving neurological recovery after spinal cord injury. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01236976 (10 November 2010), ACTRN12610000498099 (17 June 2010).

Penicillin to prevent recurrent leg cellulitis.

BACKGROUND: Cellulitis of the leg is a common bacterial infection of the skin and underlying tissue. We compared prophylactic low-dose penicillin with placebo for the prevention of recurrent cellulitis. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial involving patients with two or more episodes of cellulitis of the leg who were recruited in 28 hospitals in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Randomization was performed according to a computer-generated code, and study medications (penicillin [250 mg twice a day] or placebo for 12 months) were dispensed by a central pharmacy. The primary outcome was the time to a first recurrence. Participants were followed for up to 3 years. Because the risk of recurrence was not constant over the 3-year period, the primary hypothesis was tested during prophylaxis only. RESULTS: A total of 274 patients were recruited. Baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. The median time to a first recurrence of cellulitis was 626 days in the penicillin group and 532 days in the placebo group. During the prophylaxis phase, 30 of 136 participants in the penicillin group (22%) had a recurrence, as compared with 51 of 138 participants in the placebo group (37%) (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35 to 0.86; P=0.01), yielding a number needed to treat to prevent one recurrent cellulitis episode of 5 (95% CI, 4 to 9). During the no-intervention follow-up period, there was no difference between groups in the rate of a first recurrence (27% in both groups). Overall, participants in the penicillin group had fewer repeat episodes than those in the placebo group (119 vs. 164, P=0.02 for trend). There was no significant between-group difference in the number of participants with adverse events (37 in the penicillin group and 48 in the placebo group, P=0.50). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with recurrent cellulitis of the leg, penicillin was effective in preventing subsequent attacks during prophylaxis, but the protective effect diminished progressively once drug therapy was stopped. (Funded by Action Medical Research; PATCH I Controlled-Trials.com number, ISRCTN34716921.).