Assessment of clinically significant portal hypertension by two-dimensional shear wave elastography.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To evaluate two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2DSWE) in parallel with transient elastography (TE) for diagnosing clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and high-risk varices (HRV) in patients with chronic liver disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with suspicion of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) [liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 10 kPa by TE, or morphological signs suggestive of cACLD on imaging], with no history of liver decompensation, underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement, transjugular liver biopsy and esophagogastroduodenoscopy, which served as the reference methods for diagnosing CSPH, cACLD and HRV. All patients underwent LSM and spleen stiffness measurements (SSM) by 2DSWE and TE. RESULTS: Seventy-six (76) patients were included (78% men, mean age 62 years, body mass index 28.3 kg/m2 , 36.8% alcoholic, 30.3% non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 14.5% viral hepatitis). Of them, 80.3%, 69.7%, 52.6% and 22.4% had cACLD, cirrhosis, CSPH and HRV respectively. LSM performed better than SSM in diagnosing CSPH and HRV. For CSPH, AUROCs (0.926 vs. 0.866), optimal cut-offs (20.1 vs. 20.2 kPa) and sensitivity/specificity (80.5%/94.3% vs. 77.5% /86.1%) were comparable for 2DSWE and TE. Ruling-out of CSPH by 2DSWE (LSM at cut-off with ≥90% sensitivity (13.5 kPa) and platelets ≥ 150 x 109 /L) performed comparably to TE, with 1/24 cases falsely classified as negative. For HRV, AUROCs were similar (0.875 2DSWE, 0.851 TE) with similar optimal LSM cut-offs enabling 100% sensitivity and ruling-out HRV. CONCLUSION: Liver stiffness measurement by 2DSWE appears to perform equally well as TE for diagnosing CSPH and ruling-out HRV in compensated chronic liver disease.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of an outreach model of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) assessment to facilitate HCV treatment in primary care.

The effects of hepatitis C virus (HCV), such as morbidity and mortality associated with cirrhosis and liver cancer, is a major public health issue in Australia. Highly effective treatment has recently been made available to all Australians living with HCV. A decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the hepatology partnership, compared to usual care. A Markov model was chosen, as it is state-based and able to include recursive events, which accurately reflects the natural history of the chronic and repetitive nature of HCV. Cost-effectiveness of the new model of care is indicated by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), where the mean change to costs associated with the new model of care is divided by the mean change in quality adjusted life-years (QALYs). Ten thousand iterations of the model were run, with the majority (73%) of ICERs representing cost-savings. In comparison to usual care, the intervention improves health outcomes (22.38 QALYs gained) and reduces costs by $42,122 per patient. When compared to usual care, a partnership approach to management of HCV is cost-effective and good value for money, even when key model parameters are changed in scenario analyses. Reduction in costs is driven by improved efficiency of the new model of care, where more patients are treated in a timely manner, away from the expensive tertiary setting. From an economic perspective, a reduction in hospital-based care is a positive outcome and represents a good investment for decision-makers who wish to maximise health gain per dollar spent.

Protocol for a randomised trial testing a community fibrosis assessment service for patients with suspected non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: LOCal assessment and triage evaluation of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (LOCATE-NAFLD).

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common type of chronic liver disease in Australia and its recent increase mirrors the obesity and type 2 diabetes epidemics. Currently, many patients who present to primary care with abnormal liver function tests or steatosis on liver ultrasound are referred for assessment in secondary care. Due to the large number of patients with NAFLD, this results in long waits for clinical and fibrosis assessment, placing unnecessary burden on the public hospital system. METHODS: We will conduct a 1:1 parallel randomised trial to compare two alternative models of care for NAFLD. Participants will be randomised to usual care or the LOCal Assessment and Triage Evaluation (LOCATE) model of care and followed for 1 year. We will recruit patients from the non-neighbouring Sunshine Coast and Metro South Hospital and Health Services (HHSs) in Queensland, Australia. Our primary outcome of interest is time to diagnosis of high-risk NAFLD, based on the number of participants in each arm of the study who receive a diagnosis of clinically significant fibrosis. Two hundred and 34 participants will give us a 95% power to detect a 50% reduction in the primary outcome of time to diagnosis of high-risk disease. We will also conduct an economic evaluation, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of the new model of care. We will also evaluate the implementation of the new model of care. DISCUSSION: It is anticipated that the results of this study will provide valuable new information regarding the management of NAFLD in the Australian setting. A relatively simple change to care could result in earlier identification of patients with significant liver disease and lower overall costs for the health system. Results will be directly disseminated to key staff for further distribution to consumers, policy- and decision-makers in the form of evidence briefs, plain language summaries and policy recommendations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on 30 January, 2020 and can be found via ANZCTR - number ACTRN12620000158965.

Increasing Hospitalization Rates for Cirrhosis: Overrepresentation of Disadvantaged Australians.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about hospitalization rates for cirrhosis in Australia. METHODS: Using information on all hospital episodes of care for patients admitted to Queensland hospitals during 2008-2016, we report age-standardized hospitalization rates/10,000 person-years, in-hospital case-fatality rate among these admissions (n = 30,327), and examine the factors associated with hospital deaths using logistic regression analyses. FINDINGS: Hospitalization rates increased from 8.50/10,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.18-8.82) to 11.21/10,000 (95%CI 10.87-11.54) between 2008 and 2016, and peaked in men aged 55-59 years (34.03/10,000) and in Indigenous Australians (32.79/10,000). The number of admissions increased by 61.7% from 2701 admissions in 2008 to 4367 in 2016. During the same period, the percentage increase varied by socioeconomic disadvantage (3.2%/year in the most affluent vs. 9.4%/year in the most disadvantaged quintile; p < 0.001). Alcohol misuse was a contributing factor for cirrhosis in 55.1% of admissions, and socioeconomic disadvantage in 26.8%. The overall in-hospital case-fatality rate was 9.7% for males and 9.3% for females, and decreased in males (p < 0.001). Predictors of in-hospital mortality included hepatorenal syndrome (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.24, 95%CI 5.99-8.75), HCC (AOR = 2.53, 95%CI 2.20-2.91), hepatic encephalopathy (AOR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.61-2.34), acute peritonitis (AOR = 1.93, 95%CI 1.61-2.33), jaundice (AOR = 1.82, 95%CI 1.20-2.75), age ≥ 70 years (AOR = 1.63, 95%CI 1.38-1.92), a higher comorbidity index (p = 0.021), and residence outside of a "major city" (p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: The increasing healthcare use by Australians with cirrhosis has resource and economic implications. Our data highlight the disproportionate impact of cirrhosis on Indigenous Australians and people from the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. FUNDING: Brisbane Diamantina Health Partners.

Cost-comparison analysis of FIB-4, ELF and fibroscan in community pathways for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients with advanced liver fibrosis secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains challenging. Using non-invasive liver fibrosis tests (NILT) in primary care may permit earlier detection of patients with clinically significant disease for specialist review, and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease. We constructed an analytical model to assess the clinical and cost differentials of such strategies. METHODS: A probabilistic decisional model simulated a cohort of 1000 NAFLD patients over 1 year from a healthcare payer perspective. Simulations compared standard care (SC) (scenario 1) to: Scenario 2: FIB-4 for all patients followed by Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test for patients with indeterminate FIB-4 results; Scenario 3: FIB-4 followed by fibroscan for indeterminate FIB-4; Scenario 4: ELF alone; and Scenario 5: fibroscan alone. Model estimates were derived from the published literature. The primary outcome was cost per case of advanced fibrosis detected. RESULTS: Introduction of NILT increased detection of advanced fibrosis over 1 year by 114, 118, 129 and 137% compared to SC in scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively with reduction in unnecessary referrals by 85, 78, 71 and 42% respectively. The cost per case of advanced fibrosis (METAVIR ≥F3) detected was £25,543, £8932, £9083, £9487 and £10,351 in scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Total budget spend was reduced by 25.2, 22.7, 15.1 and 4.0% in Scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 compared to £670 K at baseline. CONCLUSION: Our analyses suggest that the use of NILT in primary care can increases early detection of advanced liver fibrosis and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease and is cost efficient. Adopting a two-tier approach improves resource utilization.

The accuracy of respiratory rate assessment by doctors in a London teaching hospital: a cross-sectional study.

Respiratory rate (RR) is one of the most sensitive markers of a patient condition and a core aspect of multiple clinical assessment tools. Doctors use a number of methods to assess RR, including formal measurement, and 'spot' assessments, although this is not recommended. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of the methods of RR measurement being used by doctors. A cross-sectional study assessing the accuracy (range, bias, and imprecision) of doctors' 'spot' and 'formal' respiratory rate assessments, using videos of mock patients. 54 doctors in a London teaching hospital participated. Both methods showed high levels of inaccuracy, though formal methods were more accurate than 'spot' assessments. 52 and 19% of doctors did not identify the respiratory rates shown as abnormal, using 'spot' and formal assessment methods respectively. We observed a trend towards decreasing accuracy of 'spot' assessments with increasing clinical experience (p = 0.0490). Current methods of RR assessment by doctors are inaccurate. This may be significantly delaying appropriate clinical care, or even misguiding treatment.

Assessment of liver function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a new evidence-based approach-the ALBI grade.

PURPOSE: Most patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have associated chronic liver disease, the severity of which is currently assessed by the Child-Pugh (C-P) grade. In this international collaboration, we identify objective measures of liver function/dysfunction that independently influence survival in patients with HCC and then combine these into a model that could be compared with the conventional C-P grade. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We developed a simple model to assess liver function, based on 1,313 patients with HCC of all stages from Japan, that involved only serum bilirubin and albumin levels. We then tested the model using similar cohorts from other geographical regions (n = 5,097) and other clinical situations (patients undergoing resection [n = 525] or sorafenib treatment for advanced HCC [n = 1,132]). The specificity of the model for liver (dys)function was tested in patients with chronic liver disease but without HCC (n = 501). RESULTS: The model, the Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade, performed at least as well as the C-P grade in all geographic regions. The majority of patients with HCC had C-P grade A disease at presentation, and within this C-P grade, ALBI revealed two classes with clearly different prognoses. Its utility in patients with chronic liver disease alone supported the contention that the ALBI grade was indeed an index of liver (dys)function. CONCLUSION: The ALBI grade offers a simple, evidence-based, objective, and discriminatory method of assessing liver function in HCC that has been extensively tested in an international setting. This new model eliminates the need for subjective variables such as ascites and encephalopathy, a requirement in the conventional C-P grade.

Digital image analysis of collagen assessment of progression of fibrosis in recurrent HCV after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Histological assessment of fibrosis progression is currently performed by staging systems which are not continuous quantitative measurements. We aimed at assessing a quantitative measurement of fibrosis collagen proportionate area (CPA), to evaluate fibrosis progression and compare it to Ishak stage progression. METHODS: We studied a consecutive cohort of 155 patients with recurrent HCV hepatitis after liver transplantation (LT), who had liver biopsies at one year and were subsequently evaluated for progression of fibrosis using CPA and Ishak staging, and correlated with clinical decompensation. The upper quartile of distribution of fibrosis rates (difference in CPA or Ishak stage between paired biopsies) defined fast fibrosers. RESULTS: Patients had 610 biopsies and a median follow-up of 116 (18-252) months. Decompensation occurred in 29 (18%) patients. Median Ishak stage progression rate was 0.42 units/year: (24 (15%) fast fibrosers). Median CPA fibrosis progression rate was 0.71%/year (36 (23%) fast fibrosers). Clinical decompensation was independently associated by Cox regression only with CPA (p=0.007), with AUROCs of 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.91) compared to 0.68 (95% CI 0.56-0.81) for Ishak stage. Fast fibrosis defined by CPA progression was independently associated with histological de novo hepatitis (OR: 3.77), older donor age (OR: 1.03) and non-use/discontinuation of azathioprine before 1 year post-LT (OR: 3.85), whereas when defined by Ishak progression, fast fibrosers was only associated with histological de novo hepatitis. CONCLUSIONS: CPA fibrosis progression rate is a better predictor of clinical outcome than progression by Ishak stage. Histological de novo hepatitis, older donor age and non-use/discontinuation of azathioprine are associated with rapid fibrosis progression in recurrent HCV chronic hepatitis after liver transplantation.

Resource implications of expanding the use of donation after circulatory determination of death in liver transplantation.

In the United Kingdom, liver transplantation using donation after circulatory determination of death (DCDD) organs has increased steadily over the last few years and now accounts for 20% of UK transplant activity. The procurement of DCDD livers is actively promoted as a means of increasing the donor pool and bridging the evolving disparity between the wait-list length and the number of transplants performed. The objective of this retrospective study of a cohort of patients who were matched for age, liver disease etiology, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was to determine whether differences in perioperative costs and resource utilization are associated with the use of such organs. Our results showed an increased prevalence of reperfusion syndrome in the DCDD cohort (P < 0.001), a prolonged heparin effect (P = 0.01), a greater incidence of hyperfibrinolysis (P = 0.002), longer periods of postoperative ventilator use (P = 0.03) and vasopressor support (P = 0.002), and a prolonged length of stay in the intensive therapy unit (ITU; P = 0.02). The peak posttransplant aspartate aminotransferase level was higher in the DCDD group (P = 0.007), and there was significantly more graft failure at 12 months (P = 0.03). In conclusion, we have demonstrated different perioperative and early postoperative courses for DCDD and donation after brain death (DBD) liver transplants. The overall quality of DCDD grafts is poorer; as a result, the length of the ITU stay and the need for multiorgan support are increased, and this has significant financial and resource implications. We believe that these implications require a careful real-life consideration of benefits. It is essential for DCDD not to be seen as a like-for-like alternative to DBD and for every effort to be continued to be made to increase the number of donations from brain-dead patients as a first resort.

Comparison of the sequential organ failure assessment score with the King's College Hospital criteria and the model for end-stage liver disease score for the prognosis of acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure.

Acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (ALF) is a complex multiorgan illness. An assessment of the prognosis is essential for the accurate identification of patients for whom survival without liver transplantation (LT) is unlikely. The aims of this study were the comparison of prognostic models [King's College Hospital (KCH), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II)] and the identification of independent prognostic indicators of outcome. We evaluated consecutive patients with severe acetaminophen-induced ALF who were admitted to the intensive care unit. At admission, demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters were recorded. The discriminative ability of each prognostic score at the baseline was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In addition, using a multiple logistic regression, we assessed independent factors associated with outcome. In all, 125 consecutive patients with acetaminophen-induced ALF were evaluated: 67 patients (54%) survived with conservative medical management (group 1), and 58 patients (46%) either died without LT (28%) or underwent LT (18%; group 2). Group 1 patients had significantly lower median APACHE II (10 versus 14) and SOFA scores (9 versus 12) than group 2 patients (P < 0.001). The independent indicators associated with death or LT were a longer prothrombin time (P = 0.007), the inspiratory oxygen concentration (P = 0.005), and the lactate level at 12 hours (P < 0.001). The KCH criteria had the highest specificity (83%) but the lowest sensitivity (47%), and the SOFA score had the best discriminative ability (AUC = 0.79). In conclusion, for patients with acetaminophen-induced ALF, the SOFA score performed better than the other prognostic scores, and this reflected the presence of multiorgan dysfunction. A further evaluation of SOFA with the KCH criteria is warranted.

Assessment of adrenocortical reserve in stable patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Adrenal insufficiency (AI) is reported in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and is associated with increased mortality. It is unclear if AI is an underlying condition or triggered by critical events (e.g. sepsis). We investigated AI in cirrhosis without infection or hemodynamic instability. METHODS: A total of 101 consecutive patients with cirrhosis were studied. AI was defined by a total serum cortisol (TC) <18 µg/dl at 20 or 30 min after injection of 1 µg of tetracosactrin. Transcortin, calculated free cortisol (cFC), and free cortisol index (FCI) were assessed in a subgroup of 41 patients, with FCI>12 representing normal adrenal function. RESULTS: AI was present in 38 patients (38%). Child score (median, 10 vs 7, p<0.0001), MELD score (median, 17 vs 12, p<0.0001), ascites (68% vs 37%, p<0.01), basal TC (median,7.6 vs 14.9 µg/dl, p<0.001), albumin (28 ± 0.8 vs 33 ± 0.7 g/L, p<0.0001), INR (median, 1.6 vs 1.2, p<0.0001), total bilirubin (median, 51 vs 31 µmol/L, p<0.05), total cholesterol (median, 120 vs 142, p<0.05), and LDL (median, 76 vs 81, p<0.05) were significantly different between those with and without AI. ROC curves showed a basal TC ≤ 12.8 µg/dl to be a cut-off value closely associated with AI. The cFC was significantly related to TC for baseline values (R=0.94, p<0.0001), peak values (R=0.90, p<0.0001), and delta values (R=0.95, p<0.0001), in patients with and without AI. However, no patient had a FCI<12. CONCLUSIONS: AI defined by an abnormal response to 1 µg tetracosactrin is frequent in stable patients with cirrhosis, in the absence of infections or hemodynamic instability and is related to the severity of liver disease. However, evaluation of the true incidence of AI should comprise direct assays of free cortisol. Clinical consequences of AI need to be explored.

RIFLE classification as predictive factor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: To evaluate the association of the Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss and End-stage renal failure (RIFLE) score on mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: A cohort of 412 patients with cirrhosis consecutively admitted to ICU was classified according to the RIFLE score. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the factors associated with mortality. Liver-specific, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and RIFLE scores on admission, were compared by receiver-operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: The overall mortality during ICU stay or within 6 weeks after discharge from ICU was 61.2%, but decreased over time (76% during first interval, 1989-1992 vs 50% during the last, 2005-2006, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that RIFLE score (odds ratio: 2.1, P < 0.001) was an independent factor significantly associated with mortality. Although SOFA had the best discrimination (area under receiver-operator characteristic curve = 0.84), and the APACHE II had the best calibration, the RIFLE score had the best sensitivity (90%) to predict death in patients during follow up. CONCLUSIONS: RIFLE score was significantly associated with mortality, confirming the importance of renal failure in this large cohort of patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU, but it is less useful than other scores.