Effectiveness of a conditional cash transfer programme on TB cure rate: a retrospective cohort study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Despite the efforts of the National Tuberculosis Programme, TB cure rates in Brazil are sub-optimal. The End TB Strategy for post-2015 identifies conditional cash transfer interventions as powerful tools to improve TB control indicators, including TB cure rate. This study aims to inform the new policy by evaluating the role of the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP), one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world, on TB cure rates in Brazil. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study, based on an unprecedented record linkage of socioeconomic and health data, to compare cases of patients newly diagnosed with TB in 2010 receiving BFP cash benefits (n=5788) with those who did not (n=1467) during TB treatment. We used Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate the relative risks for TB cure adjusted for known confounders. RESULTS: The cure rate among patients exposed to BFP during TB treatment was 82.1% (4752/5788), 5.2% higher than among those not exposed. This was confirmed after controlling for TB type, diabetes mellitus, HIV status and other relevant clinical and socioeconomic covariates (RR=1.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.11 for cure rates among BFP beneficiaries). This association seemed higher for patients not under directly observed treatment (RR=1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.16). CONCLUSIONS: Although further research is needed, this study suggests that conditional cash transfer programmes can contribute to improve TB cure rate in Brazil.

Cardiovascular disease and impoverishment averted due to a salt reduction policy in South Africa: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

The South African Government recently set targets to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) by lowering salt consumption. We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to model the potential health and economic impacts of this salt policy. We used surveys and epidemiologic studies to estimate reductions in CVD resulting from lower salt intake. We calculated the average out-of-pocket (OOP) cost of CVD care, using facility fee schedules and drug prices. We estimated the reduction in OOP expenditures and government subsidies due to the policy. We estimated public and private sector costs of policy implementation. We estimated financial risk protection (FRP) from the policy as (1) cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted or (2) cases of poverty averted. We also performed a sensitivity analysis. We found that the salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in healthcare subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year. The cost to the government would be only US$ 0.01 per capita; hence, the policy would be cost saving. If the private sector food reformulation costs were passed on to consumers, food expenditures would increase by <0.2% across all income quintiles. Preventing CVD could avert 2400 cases of CHE or 2000 cases of poverty yearly. Our results were sensitive to baseline CVD mortality rates and the cost of treatment. We conclude that, in addition to health gains, population salt reduction can have positive economic impacts-substantially reducing OOP expenditures and providing FRP, particularly for the middle class. The policy could also provide large government savings on health care.

Comparing the health and social protection effects of measles vaccination strategies in Ethiopia: An extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

Vaccination coverage rates often mask wide variation in access, uptake, and cost of providing vaccination. Financial incentives have been effective at creating demand for social services in a variety of settings. Using methods of extended cost-effectiveness analysis, we compare the health and economic implications of three different vaccine delivery strategies for measles vaccination in Ethiopia: i) routine immunization, ii) routine immunization with financial incentives, and iii) mass campaigns, known as supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We examine annual birth cohorts of almost 3,000,000 births over a ten year period, exploring variation in these outcomes based on economic status to understand how various options may improve equity. SIAs naturally achieve higher levels of vaccine coverage, but at higher costs. Routine immunization combined with financial incentives bolsters demand among more economically vulnerable households. The relative appeal of routine immunization with financial incentives and SIAs will depend on the policy environment, including short-term financial limitations, time horizons, and the types of outcomes that are desired. While the impact of financial incentives has been more thoroughly studied in other policy arenas, such as education, consideration of this approach alongside standard vaccination models such as SIAs is timely given the dialog around measles eradication.

Health gains and financial risk protection afforded by public financing of selected interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The way in which a government chooses to finance a health intervention can affect the uptake of health interventions and consequently the extent of health gains. In addition to health gains, some policies such as public finance can insure against catastrophic health expenditures. We aimed to evaluate the health and financial risk protection benefits of selected interventions that could be publicly financed by the government of Ethiopia. METHODS: We used extended cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the health gains (deaths averted) and financial risk protection afforded (cases of poverty averted) by a bundle of nine (among many other) interventions that the Government of Ethiopia aims to make universally available. These nine interventions were measles vaccination, rotavirus vaccination, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination, diarrhoea treatment, malaria treatment, pneumonia treatment, caesarean section surgery, hypertension treatment, and tuberculosis treatment. FINDINGS: Our analysis shows that, per dollar spent by the Ethiopian Government, the interventions that avert the most deaths are measles vaccination (367 deaths averted per $100,000 spent), pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (170 deaths averted per $100,000 spent), and caesarean section surgery (141 deaths averted per $100,000 spent). The interventions that avert the most cases of poverty are caesarean section surgery (98 cases averted per $100,000 spent), tuberculosis treatment (96 cases averted per $100,000 spent), and hypertension treatment (84 cases averted per $100,000 spent). INTERPRETATION: Our approach incorporates financial risk protection into the economic evaluation of health interventions and therefore provides information about the efficiency of attainment of both major objectives of a health system: improved health and financial risk protection. One intervention might rank higher on one or both metrics than another, which shows how intervention choice-the selection of a pathway to universal health coverage-might involve weighing up of sometimes competing objectives. This understanding can help policy makers to select interventions to target specific policy goals (ie, improved health or financial risk protection). It is especially relevant for the design and sequencing of universal health coverage to meet the needs of poor populations.

Annual rates of decline in child, maternal, HIV, and tuberculosis mortality across 109 countries of low and middle income from 1990 to 2013: an assessment of the feasibility of post-2015 goals.

BACKGROUND: Measuring a country's health performance has focused mostly on estimating levels of mortality. An alternative is to measure rates of decline in mortality, which are more sensitive to changes in health policy than are mortality levels. Historical rates of decline in mortality can also help test the feasibility of future health goals (eg, post-2015). We aimed to assess the annual rates of decline in under-5, maternal, tuberculosis, and HIV mortality over the past two decades for 109 low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: For the period 1990-2013, we estimated annual rates of decline in under-5 mortality (deaths per 1000 livebirths), the maternal mortality ratio (deaths per 100 000 livebirths), and tuberculosis and HIV mortality (deaths per 100 000 population per year) using published data from UNICEF and WHO. For every 5-year interval (eg, 1990-95), we defined performance as the size of the annual rate of decline for every mortality indicator. Subsequently, we tested the feasibility of post-2015 goals by estimating the year by which countries would achieve 2030 targets proposed by The Lancet's Commission on Investing in Health (ie, 20 deaths per 1000 for under-5 mortality, 94 deaths per 100 000 for maternal mortality, four deaths per 100 000 for tuberculosis mortality, and eight deaths per 100 000 for HIV mortality) at observed country and aspirational best-performer (90th percentile) rates. FINDINGS: From 2005 to 2013, the mean annual rate of decline in under-5 mortality was 4·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·9-4·6), for maternal mortality it was 3·3% (2·5-4·1), for tuberculosis mortality 4·1% (2·8-5·4), and for HIV mortality 2·2% (0·1-4·3); aspirational best-performer rates per year were 7·1% (6·8-7·5), 6·3% (5·5-7·1), 12·8% (11·5-14·1), and 15·3% (13·2-17·4), respectively. The top two country performers were Macedonia and South Africa for under-5 mortality, Belarus and Bulgaria for maternal mortality, Uzbekistan and Macedonia for tuberculosis mortality, and Namibia and Rwanda for HIV mortality. At aspirational rates of decline, The Lancet's Commission on Investing in Health target for under-5 mortality would be achieved by 50-64% of countries, 35-41% of countries would achieve the 2030 target for maternal mortality, 74-90% of countries would meet the goal for tuberculosis mortality, and 66-82% of countries would achieve the target for HIV mortality.