Development and validation of a risk assessment tool for BKPyV Replication in allogeneic stem cell transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: BK polymavirus (BKPyV), a member of the family Polyomaviridae, is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in allogeneic stem cell transplant recipients. METHODS: In our previous retrospective study of 2477 stem cell transplant patients, BKPyV replication independently predicted chronic kidney disease and poor survival. In this study, using the same cohort, we derived and validated a risk grading system to identify patients at risk of BKPyV replication after transplantation in a user-friendly modality. We used 3 baseline variables (conditioning regimen, HLA match status, and underlying cancer diagnosis) that significantly predicted BKPyV replication in our initial study in a subdistribution hazard model with death as a competing risk. We also developed a nomogram of the hazard model as a visual aid. The AUC of the ROC of the risk-score-only model was 0.65. We further stratified the patients on the basis of risk score into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. RESULTS: The total risk score was significantly associated with BKPyV replication (P < .0001). At 30 days after transplantation, the low-risk (score ≤ 0) patients had a 9% chance of developing symptomatic BKPyV replication, while the high-risk (score ≥ 8) of the population had 56% of developing BKPyV replication. We validated the risk score using a separate cohort of 1478 patients. The AUC of the ROC of the risk-score-only model was 0.59. Both the total risk score and 3-level risk variable were significantly associated with BKPyV replication in this cohort (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: This grading system for the risk of symptomatic BKPyV replication may help in early monitoring and intervention to prevent BKPyV-associated morbidity, mortality, and kidney function decline.

Early Post-Transplant Minimal Residual Disease Assessment Improves Risk Stratification in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

We studied if the inclusion of early post-stem cell transplantation (SCT) minimal residual disease (MRD) assessments improved prognostication in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Two hundred sixty-nine AML patients in morphological complete remission (CR) who underwent a first SCT were included if they had evaluable pre-SCT MRD assessment by multiparametric flow cytometry. Post-SCT MRD assessments were performed at days +30, +100, and +180. The primary outcome was 1-year relapse incidence (RI). Of 269 patients in CR, 83 (30.8%) had detectable MRD pre-SCT. Post-SCT, during routine disease assessment time points, 9 of 241 evaluable patients (3.7%) at day +30, 6 of 191 evaluable patients (3.1%) at day +100, and 4 of 133 evaluable patients (3%) at day +180 were MRD positive while in CR. MRD positivity at day +30 predicted the highest risk of relapse at 1 year (group 1, 1-year RI 78%). Among MRD-negative patients at day +30, either adverse risk category by European Leukemia Net (ELN) or intermediate risk who were aged ≥60 years and/or pre-SCT MRD-positive represented the intermediate-risk group (group 2, 1-year RI 29%). The remaining patients represented the low-risk group (group 3, 1-year RI 5%). For patients in CR beyond day +30 post-SCT, detectable MRD at any time point predicted impending relapse within 2 months. Early post-SCT MRD assessment-combined with pre-SCT MRD assessment, ELN risk category, and age-improves risk stratification for relapse in AML patients post-transplant. Studies aimed at preventing impending relapse in this high-risk population are urgently needed.