A Century of Change: Unraveling the Impact of Socioeconomic/Historical Milestones on Age at Menarche and Other Female Reproductive Factors in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive factors such as age at menarche are known to be associated with disease risk, but data on trends in these factors in Japan are limited. In this study, we investigated secular trends in reproductive factors and explored their potential association with socioeconomic and historical events. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 62,005 Japanese women born between 1890 and 1991 using a survey conducted over 25 years. Trends in reproductive factors were analyzed using linear and joinpoint regression models, and their associations with major historical events involving Japan were evaluated. RESULTS: We found that the age at menarche showed a significant downward trend (P-value<0.001) over the century. Three joinpoints were identified, in 1932 (15.23 years old), 1946 (13.48 years old), and 1959 (12.71 years old), which indicated that average age at menarche decreased by approximately 0.8% per year between 1932 and 1946, and then by 0.4% per year between 1946 and 1959, both of which were statistically significant. However, after 1959, age of menarche remained stable. Analyses of other reproductive factors found significant changes, including a decrease in parity and the number of babies breastfed, and an increase in age at first birth. CONCLUSION: Age at menarche showed a long-term downward trend in Japan, with significant change points in annual percent change. Other factors showed secular changes in trends as well. These change points were observed at the same time as historical events, namely wars and economic development, suggesting that socioeconomic and environmental changes at the population level affect reproductive factors in females.

Burden of total and cause-specific mortality related to tobacco smoking among adults aged ≥ 45 years in Asia: a pooled analysis of 21 cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer risk: a revisit with an assessment of the nicotine dependence phenotype.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is a well-established risk factor of pancreatic cancer (PC). Although an association between nicotine dependence phenotype, namely time to first cigarette (TTFC) after waking, and the risk of several smoking-related cancers has been reported, an association between TTFC and PC risk has not been reported. We assessed the impact of smoking behavior, particularly TTFC, on PC risk in a Japanese population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using 341 PC and 1,705 non-cancer patients who visited Aichi Cancer Center in Nagoya, Japan. Exposure to risk factors, including smoking behavior, was assessed from the results of a self-administered questionnaire. The impact of smoking on PC risk was assessed with multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Cigarettes per day (CPD) and/or smoking duration were significantly associated with PC risk, consistent with previous studies. For TTFC and PC risk, we found only a suggestive association: compared with a TTFC of more than 60 minutes, ORs were 1.15 (95%CI, 0.65- 2.04) for a TTFC of 30-60 minutes and 1.35 (95%CI, 0.85-2.15) for that of 0-30 minutes (p trend=0.139). After adjustment for CPD or smoking duration, no association was observed between TTFC and PC. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found no statistically significant association between TTFC and PC risk. Further studies concerning TTFC and PC risk are warranted.