Understanding the Environmental Background of an Invasive Plant Species (Asclepias syriaca) for the Future: An Application of LUCAS Field Photographs and Machine Learning Algorithm Methods.

For developing global strategies against the dramatic spread of invasive species, we need to identify the geographical, environmental, and socioeconomic factors determining the spatial distribution of invasive species. In our study, we investigated these factors influencing the occurrences of common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.), an invasive plant species that is of great concern to the European Union (EU). In a Hungarian study area, we used country-scale soil and climate databases, as well as an EU-scale land cover databases (CORINE) for the analyses. For the abundance data of A. syriaca, we applied the field survey photos from the Land Use and Coverage Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) Land Cover database for the European Union. With machine learning algorithm methods, we quantified the relative weight of the environmental variables on the abundance of common milkweed. According to our findings, soil texture and soil type (sandy soils) were the most important variables determining the occurrence of this species. We could exactly identify the actual land cover types and the recent land cover changes that have a significant role in the occurrence the common milkweed in Europe. We could also show the role of climatic conditions of the study area in the occurrence of this species, and we could prepare the potential distribution map of common milkweed for the study area.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Maps of heavy metals in the soils of the European Union and proposed priority areas for detailed assessment.

Soil contamination is one of the greatest concerns among the threats to soil resources in Europe and globally. Despite of its importance there was only very course scale (1/5000km(2)) data available on soil heavy metal concentrations prior to the LUCAS topsoil survey, which had a sampling density of 200km(2). Based on the results of the LUCAS sampling and auxiliary information detailed and up-to-date maps of heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn, Sb, Co and Ni) in the topsoil of the European Union were produced. Using the maps of heavy metal concentration in topsoil we made a spatial prediction of areas where local assessment is suggested to monitor and eventually control the potential threat from heavy metals. Most of the examined elements remain under the corresponding threshold values in the majority of the land of the EU. However, one or more of the elements exceed the applied threshold concentration on 1.2Mkm(2), which is 28.3% of the total surface area of the EU. While natural backgrounds might be the reason for high concentrations on large proportion of the affected soils, historical and recent industrial and mining areas show elevated concentrations (predominantly of As, Cd, Pb and Hg) too, indicating the magnitude of anthropogenic effect on soil quality in Europe.