Human biomonitoring and toxicokinetics as key building blocks for next generation risk assessment.

Human health risk assessment is historically built upon animal testing, often following Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) test guidelines and exposure assessments. Using combinations of human relevant in vitro models, chemical analysis and computational (in silico) approaches bring advantages compared to animal studies. These include a greater focus on the human species and on molecular mechanisms and kinetics, identification of Adverse Outcome Pathways and downstream Key Events as well as the possibility of addressing susceptible populations and additional endpoints. Much of the advancement and progress made in the Next Generation Risk Assessment (NGRA) have been primarily focused on new approach methodologies (NAMs) and physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling without incorporating human biomonitoring (HBM). The integration of toxicokinetics (TK) and PBK modelling is an essential component of NGRA. PBK models are essential for describing in quantitative terms the TK processes with a focus on the effective dose at the expected target site. Furthermore, the need for PBK models is amplified by the increasing scientific and regulatory interest in aggregate and cumulative exposure as well as interactions of chemicals in mixtures. Since incorporating HBM data strengthens approaches and reduces uncertainties in risk assessment, here we elaborate on the integrated use of TK, PBK modelling and HBM in chemical risk assessment highlighting opportunities as well as challenges and limitations. Examples are provided where HBM and TK/PBK modelling can be used in both exposure assessment and hazard characterization shifting from external exposure and animal dose/response assays to animal-free, internal exposure-based NGRA.

OECD harmonised template 201: Structuring and reporting mechanistic information to foster the integration of new approach methodologies for hazard and risk assessment of chemicals.

In the European Union, the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability (CSS) highlights the need to enhance the identification and assessment of substances of concern while reducing animal testing, thus fostering the development and use of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) such as in silico, in vitro and in chemico. In the United States, the Tox21 strategy aims at shifting toxicological assessments away from traditional animal studies towards target-specific, mechanism-based and biological observations mainly obtained by using NAMs. Many other jurisdictions around the world are also increasing the use of NAMs. Hence, the provision of dedicated non-animal toxicological data and reporting formats as a basis for chemical risk assessment is necessary. Harmonising data reporting is crucial when aiming at re-using and sharing data for chemical risk assessment across jurisdictions. The OECD has developed a series of OECD Harmonised Templates (OHT), which are standard data formats designed for reporting information used for the risk assessment of chemicals relevant to their intrinsic properties, including effects on human health (e.g., toxicokinetics, skin sensitisation, repeated dose toxicity) and the environment (e.g., toxicity to test species and wildlife, biodegradation in soil, metabolism of residues in crops). The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of the OHT standard format for reporting information under various chemical risk assessment regimes, and to provide users with practical guidance on the use of OHT 201, in particular to report test results on intermediate effects and mechanistic information.

Towards best use and regulatory acceptance of generic physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models for in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) in chemical risk assessment.

With an increasing need to incorporate new approach methodologies (NAMs) in chemical risk assessment and the concomitant need to phase out animal testing, the interpretation of in vitro assay readouts for quantitative hazard characterisation becomes more important. Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models, which simulate the fate of chemicals in tissues of the body, play an essential role in extrapolating in vitro effect concentrations to in vivo bioequivalent exposures. As PBK-based testing approaches evolve, it will become essential to standardise PBK modelling approaches towards a consensus approach that can be used in quantitative in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) studies for regulatory chemical risk assessment based on in vitro assays. Based on results of an ECETOC expert workshop, steps are recommended that can improve regulatory adoption: (1) define context and implementation, taking into consideration model complexity for building fit-for-purpose PBK models, (2) harmonise physiological input parameters and their distribution and define criteria for quality chemical-specific parameters, especially in the absence of in vivo data, (3) apply Good Modelling Practices (GMP) to achieve transparency and design a stepwise approach for PBK model development for risk assessors, (4) evaluate model predictions using alternatives to in vivo PK data including read-across approaches, (5) use case studies to facilitate discussions between modellers and regulators of chemical risk assessment. Proof-of-concepts of generic PBK modelling approaches are published in the scientific literature at an increasing rate. Working on the previously proposed steps is, therefore, needed to gain confidence in PBK modelling approaches for regulatory use.

IVIVE: Facilitating the Use of In Vitro Toxicity Data in Risk Assessment and Decision Making.

During the past few decades, the science of toxicology has been undergoing a transformation from observational to predictive science. New approach methodologies (NAMs), including in vitro assays, in silico models, read-across, and in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE), are being developed to reduce, refine, or replace whole animal testing, encouraging the judicious use of time and resources. Some of these methods have advanced past the exploratory research stage and are beginning to gain acceptance for the risk assessment of chemicals. A review of the recent literature reveals a burst of IVIVE publications over the past decade. In this review, we propose operational definitions for IVIVE, present literature examples for several common toxicity endpoints, and highlight their implications in decision-making processes across various federal agencies, as well as international organizations, including those in the European Union (EU). The current challenges and future needs are also summarized for IVIVE. In addition to refining and reducing the number of animals in traditional toxicity testing protocols and being used for prioritizing chemical testing, the goal to use IVIVE to facilitate the replacement of animal models can be achieved through their continued evolution and development, including a strategic plan to qualify IVIVE methods for regulatory acceptance.

A Systematic Review of Published Physiologically-based Kinetic Models and an Assessment of their Chemical Space Coverage.

Across multiple sectors, including food, cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, there is a need to predict the potential effects of xenobiotics. These effects are determined by the intrinsic ability of the substance, or its derivatives, to interact with the biological system, and its concentration-time profile at the target site. Physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models can predict organ-level concentration-time profiles, however, the models are time and resource intensive to generate de novo. Read-across is an approach used to reduce or replace animal testing, wherein information from a data-rich chemical is used to make predictions for a data-poor chemical. The recent increase in published PBK models presents the opportunity to use a read-across approach for PBK modelling, that is, to use PBK model information from one chemical to inform the development or evaluation of a PBK model for a similar chemical. Essential to this process, is identifying the chemicals for which a PBK model already exists. Herein, the results of a systematic review of existing PBK models, compliant with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) format, are presented. Model information, including species, sex, life-stage, route of administration, software platform used and the availability of model equations, was captured for 7541 PBK models. Chemical information (identifiers and physico-chemical properties) has also been recorded for 1150 unique chemicals associated with these models. This PBK model data set has been made readily accessible, as a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet, providing a valuable resource for those developing, using or evaluating PBK models in industry, academia and the regulatory sectors.

Opportunities and challenges related to saturation of toxicokinetic processes: Implications for risk assessment.

Top dose selection for repeated dose animal studies has generally focused on identification of apical endpoints, use of the limit dose, or determination of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The intent is to optimize the ability of toxicity tests performed in a small number of animals to detect effects for hazard identification. An alternative approach, the kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD), has been proposed as a mechanism to integrate toxicokinetic (TK) data into the dose selection process. The approach refers to the dose above which the systemic exposures depart from being proportional to external doses. This non-linear external-internal dose relationship arises from saturation or limitation of TK process(es), such as absorption or metabolism. The importance of TK information is widely acknowledged when assessing human health risks arising from exposures to environmental chemicals, as TK determines the amount of chemical at potential sites of toxicological responses. However, there have been differing opinions and interpretations within the scientific and regulatory communities related to the validity and application of the KMD concept. A multi-stakeholder working group, led by the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI), was formed to provide an opportunity for impacted stakeholders to address commonly raised scientific and technical issues related to this topic and, more specifically, a weight of evidence approach is recommended to inform design and dose selection for repeated dose animal studies. Commonly raised challenges related to the use of TK data for dose selection are discussed, recommendations are provided, and illustrative case examples are provided to address these challenges or refute misconceptions.

Assessment of the predictive capacity of a physiologically based kinetic model using a read-across approach.

With current progress in science, there is growing interest in developing and applying Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) models in chemical risk assessment, as knowledge of internal exposure to chemicals is critical to understanding potential effects in vivo. In particular, a new generation of PBK models is being developed in which the model parameters are derived from in silico and in vitro methods. To increase the acceptance and use of these "Next Generation PBK models", there is a need to demonstrate their validity. However, this is challenging in the case of data-poor chemicals that are lacking in kinetic data and for which predictive capacity cannot, therefore, be assessed. The aim of this work is to lay down the fundamental steps in using a read across framework to inform modellers and risk assessors on how to develop, or evaluate, PBK models for chemicals without in vivo kinetic data. The application of a PBK model that takes into account the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion characteristics of the chemical reduces the uncertainties in the biokinetics and biotransformation of the chemical of interest. A strategic flow-charting application, proposed herein, allows users to identify the minimum information to perform a read-across from a data-rich chemical to its data-poor analogue(s). The workflow analysis is illustrated by means of a real case study using the alkenylbenzene class of chemicals, showing the reliability and potential of this approach. It was demonstrated that a consistent quantitative relationship between model simulations could be achieved using models for estragole and safrole (source chemicals) when applied to methyleugenol (target chemical). When the PBK model code for the source chemicals was adapted to utilise input values relevant to the target chemical, simulation was consistent between the models. The resulting PBK model for methyleugenol was further evaluated by comparing the results to an existing, published model for methyleugenol, providing further evidence that the approach was successful. This can be considered as a "read-across" approach, enabling a valid PBK model to be derived to aid the assessment of a data poor chemical.

Current EU regulatory requirements for the assessment of chemicals and cosmetic products: challenges and opportunities for introducing new approach methodologies.

The EU Directive 2010/63/EU   on the protection of animals used for scientific purposes and other EU regulations, such as REACH and the Cosmetic Products Regulation advocate for a change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. Whilst the Cosmetic Products Regulation bans animal testing altogether, REACH aims for a progressive shift from in vivo testing towards quantitative in vitro and computational approaches. Several endpoints can already be addressed using non-animal approaches including skin corrosion and irritation, serious eye damage and irritation, skin sensitisation, and mutagenicity and genotoxicity. However, for systemic effects such as acute toxicity, repeated dose toxicity and reproductive and developmental toxicity, evaluation of chemicals under REACH still heavily relies on animal tests. Here we summarise current EU regulatory requirements for the human health assessment of chemicals under REACH and the Cosmetic Products Regulation, considering the more critical endpoints and identifying the main challenges in introducing alternative methods into regulatory testing practice. This supports a recent initiative taken by the International Cooperation on Alternative Test Methods (ICATM) to summarise current regulatory requirements specific for the assessment of chemicals and cosmetic products for several human health-related endpoints, with the aim of comparing different jurisdictions and coordinating the promotion and ultimately the implementation of non-animal approaches worldwide. Recent initiatives undertaken at European level to promote the 3Rs and the use of alternative methods in current regulatory practice are also discussed.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling and human biomonitoring data for mixture risk assessment.

Human biomonitoring (HBM) data can provide insight into co-exposure patterns resulting from exposure to multiple chemicals from various sources and over time. Therefore, such data are particularly valuable for assessing potential risks from combined exposure to multiple chemicals. One way to interpret HBM data is establishing safe levels in blood or urine, called Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE) or HBM health based guidance values (HBM-HBGV). These can be derived by converting established external reference values, such as tolerable daily intake (TDI) values. HBM-HBGV or BE values are so far agreed only for a very limited number of chemicals. These values can be established using physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling, usually requiring substance specific models and the collection of many input parameters which are often not available or difficult to find in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the suitability and limitations of generic PBK models in deriving BE values for several compounds with a view to facilitating the use of HBM data in the assessment of chemical mixtures at a screening level. The focus was on testing the methodology with two generic models, the IndusChemFate tool and High-Throughput Toxicokinetics package, for two different classes of compounds, phenols and phthalates. HBM data on Danish children and on Norwegian mothers and children were used to evaluate the quality of the predictions and to illustrate, by means of a case study, the overall approach of applying PBK models to chemical classes with HBM data in the context of chemical mixture risk assessment. Application of PBK models provides a better understanding and interpretation of HBM data. However, the study shows that establishing safety threshold levels in urine is a difficult and complex task. The approach might be more straightforward for more persistent chemicals that are analysed as parent compounds in blood but high uncertainties have to be considered around simulated metabolite concentrations in urine. Refining the models may reduce these uncertainties and improve predictions. Based on the experience gained with this study, the performance of the models for other chemicals could be investigated, to improve the accuracy of the simulations.

New approach methodologies (NAMs) for human-relevant biokinetics predictions. Meeting the paradigm shift in toxicology towards an animal-free chemical risk assessment

For almost fifteen years, the availability and regulatory acceptance of new approach methodologies (NAMs) to assess the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME/biokinetics) in chemical risk evaluations are a bottleneck. To enhance the field, a team of 24 experts from science, industry, and regulatory bodies, including new generation toxicologists, met at the Lorentz Centre in Leiden, The Netherlands. A range of possibilities for the use of NAMs for biokinetics in risk evaluations were formulated (for example to define species differences and human variation or to perform quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolations). To increase the regulatory use and acceptance of NAMs for biokinetics for these ADME considerations within risk evaluations, the development of test guidelines (protocols) and of overarching guidance documents is considered a critical step. To this end, a need for an expert group on biokinetics within the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to supervise this process was formulated. The workshop discussions revealed that method development is still required, particularly to adequately capture transporter mediated processes as well as to obtain cell models that reflect the physiology and kinetic characteristics of relevant organs. Developments in the fields of stem cells, organoids and organ-on-a-chip models provide promising tools to meet these research needs in the future.

PBPK model reporting template for chemical risk assessment applications.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling analysis does not stand on its own for regulatory purposes but is a robust tool to support drug/chemical safety assessment. While the development of PBPK models have grown steadily since their emergence, only a handful of models have been accepted to support regulatory purposes due to obstacles such as the lack of a standardized template for reporting PBPK analysis. Here, we expand the existing guidances designed for pharmaceutical applications by recommending additional elements that are relevant to environmental chemicals. This harmonized reporting template can be adopted and customized by public health agencies receiving PBPK model submission, and it can also serve as general guidance for submitting PBPK-related studies for publication in journals or other modeling sharing purposes. The current effort represents one of several ongoing collaborations among the PBPK modeling and risk assessment communities to promote, when appropriate, incorporating PBPK modeling to characterize the influence of pharmacokinetics on safety decisions made by regulatory agencies.

Regulatory assessment and risk management of chemical mixtures: challenges and ways forward.

This paper summarizes current challenges, the potential use of novel scientific methodologies, and ways forward in the risk assessment and risk management of mixtures. Generally, methodologies to address mixtures have been agreed; however, there are still several data and methodological gaps to be addressed. New approach methodologies can support the filling of knowledge gaps on the toxicity and mode(s) of action of individual chemicals. (Bio)Monitoring, modeling, and better data sharing will support the derivation of more realistic co-exposure scenarios. As knowledge and data gaps often hamper an in-depth assessment of specific chemical mixtures, the option of taking account of possible mixture effects in single substance risk assessments is briefly discussed. To allow risk managers to take informed decisions, transparent documentation of assumptions and related uncertainties is recommended indicating the potential impact on the assessment. Considering the large number of possible combinations of chemicals in mixtures, prioritization is needed, so that actions first address mixtures of highest concern and chemicals that drive the mixture risk. As chemicals with different applications and regulated separately might lead to similar toxicological effects, it is important to consider chemical mixtures across legislative sectors.

Membrane transporter data to support kinetically-informed chemical risk assessment using non-animal methods: Scientific and regulatory perspectives.

Humans are continuously exposed to low levels of thousands of industrial chemicals, most of which are poorly characterised in terms of their potential toxicity. The new paradigm in chemical risk assessment (CRA) aims to rely on animal-free testing, with kinetics being a key determinant of toxicity when moving from traditional animal studies to integrated in vitro-in silico approaches. In a kinetically informed CRA, membrane transporters, which have been intensively studied during drug development, are an essential piece of information. However, how existing knowledge on transporters gained in the drug field can be applied to CRA is not yet fully understood. This review outlines the opportunities, challenges and existing tools for investigating chemical-transporter interactions in kinetically informed CRA without animal studies. Various environmental chemicals acting as substrates, inhibitors or modulators of transporter activity or expression have been shown to impact TK, just as drugs do. However, because pollutant concentrations are often lower in humans than drugs and because exposure levels and internal chemical doses are not usually known in contrast to drugs, new approaches are required to translate transporter data and reasoning from the drug sector to CRA. Here, the generation of in vitro chemical-transporter interaction data and the development of transporter databases and classification systems trained on chemical datasets (and not only drugs) are proposed. Furtheremore, improving the use of human biomonitoring data to evaluate the in vitro-in silico transporter-related predicted values and developing means to assess uncertainties could also lead to increase confidence of scientists and regulators in animal-free CRA. Finally, a systematic characterisation of the transportome (quantitative monitoring of transporter abundance, activity and maintenance over time) would reinforce confidence in the use of experimental transporter/barrier systems as well as in established cell-based toxicological assays currently used for CRA.

Capturing the applicability of in vitro-in silico membrane transporter data in chemical risk assessment and biomedical research.

Costs, scientific and ethical concerns related to animal tests for regulatory decision-making have stimulated the development of alternative methods. When applying alternative approaches, kinetics have been identified as a key element to consider. Membrane transporters affect the kinetic processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of various compounds, such as drugs or environmental chemicals. Therefore, pharmaceutical scientists have intensively studied transporters impacting drug efficacy and safety. Besides pharmacokinetics, transporters are considered as major determinant of toxicokinetics, potentially representing an essential piece of information in chemical risk assessment. To capture the applicability of transporter data for kinetic-based risk assessment in non-pharmaceutical sectors, the EU Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) created a survey with a view of identifying the improvements needed when using in vitro and in silico methods. Seventy-three participants, from different sectors and with various kinds of expertise, completed the survey. The results revealed that transporters are investigated mainly during drug development, but also for risk assessment purposes of food and feed contaminants, industrial chemicals, cosmetics, nanomaterials and in the context of environmental toxicology, by applying both in vitro and in silico tools. However, to rely only on alternative methods for chemical risk assessment, it is critical that the data generated by in vitro and in silico methods are scientific integer, reproducible and of high quality so that they are trusted by decision makers and used by industry. In line, the respondents identified various challenges related to the interpretation and use of transporter data from non-animal methods. Overall, it was determined that a combined mechanistically-anchored in vitro-in silico approach, validated against available human data, would gain confidence in using transporter data within an animal-free risk assessment paradigm. Finally, respondents involved primarily in fundamental research expressed lower confidence in non-animal studies to unravel complex transporter mechanisms.

Pathway-based predictive approaches for non-animal assessment of acute inhalation toxicity.

New approaches are needed to assess the effects of inhaled substances on human health. These approaches will be based on mechanisms of toxicity, an understanding of dosimetry, and the use of in silico modeling and in vitro test methods. In order to accelerate wider implementation of such approaches, development of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) can help identify and address gaps in our understanding of relevant parameters for model input and mechanisms, and optimize non-animal approaches that can be used to investigate key events of toxicity. This paper describes the AOPs and the toolbox of in vitro and in silico models that can be used to assess the key events leading to toxicity following inhalation exposure. Because the optimal testing strategy will vary depending on the substance of interest, here we present a decision tree approach to identify an appropriate non-animal integrated testing strategy that incorporates consideration of a substance's physicochemical properties, relevant mechanisms of toxicity, and available in silico models and in vitro test methods. This decision tree can facilitate standardization of the testing approaches. Case study examples are presented to provide a basis for proof-of-concept testing to illustrate the utility of non-animal approaches to inform hazard identification and risk assessment of humans exposed to inhaled substances.

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment.

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.

Ab initio chemical safety assessment: A workflow based on exposure considerations and non-animal methods.

We describe and illustrate a workflow for chemical safety assessment that completely avoids animal testing. The workflow, which was developed within the SEURAT-1 initiative, is designed to be applicable to cosmetic ingredients as well as to other types of chemicals, e.g. active ingredients in plant protection products, biocides or pharmaceuticals. The aim of this work was to develop a workflow to assess chemical safety without relying on any animal testing, but instead constructing a hypothesis based on existing data, in silico modelling, biokinetic considerations and then by targeted non-animal testing. For illustrative purposes, we consider a hypothetical new ingredient x as a new component in a body lotion formulation. The workflow is divided into tiers in which points of departure are established through in vitro testing and in silico prediction, as the basis for estimating a safe external dose in a repeated use scenario. The workflow includes a series of possible exit (decision) points, with increasing levels of confidence, based on the sequential application of the Threshold of Toxicological (TTC) approach, read-across, followed by an "ab initio" assessment, in which chemical safety is determined entirely by new in vitro testing and in vitro to in vivo extrapolation by means of mathematical modelling. We believe that this workflow could be applied as a tool to inform targeted and toxicologically relevant in vitro testing, where necessary, and to gain confidence in safety decision making without the need for animal testing.

Investigating the state of physiologically based kinetic modelling practices and challenges associated with gaining regulatory acceptance of model applications.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models are used widely throughout a number of working sectors, including academia and industry, to provide insight into the dosimetry related to observed adverse health effects in humans and other species. Use of these models has increased over the last several decades, especially in conjunction with emerging alternative methods to animal testing, such as in vitro studies and data-driven in silico quantitative-structure-activity-relationship (QSAR) predictions. Experimental information derived from these new approach methods can be used as input for model parameters and allows for increased confidence in models for chemicals that did not have in vivo data for model calibration. Despite significant advancements in good modelling practice (GMP) for model development and evaluation, there remains some reluctance among regulatory agencies to use such models during the risk assessment process. Here, the results of a survey disseminated to the modelling community are presented in order to inform the frequency of use and applications of PBK models in science and regulatory submission. Additionally, the survey was designed to identify a network of investigators involved in PBK modelling and knowledgeable of GMP so that they might be contacted in the future for peer review of PBK models, especially in regards to vetting the models to such a degree as to gain a greater acceptance for regulatory purposes.

The margin of internal exposure (MOIE) concept for dermal risk assessment based on oral toxicity data - A case study with caffeine.

Route-to-route extrapolation is a common part of human risk assessment. Data from oral animal toxicity studies are commonly used to assess the safety of various but specific human dermal exposure scenarios. Using theoretical examples of various user scenarios, it was concluded that delineation of a generally applicable human dermal limit value is not a practicable approach, due to the wide variety of possible human exposure scenarios, including its consequences for internal exposure. This paper uses physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling approaches to predict animal as well as human internal exposure dose metrics and for the first time, introduces the concept of Margin of Internal Exposure (MOIE) based on these internal dose metrics. Caffeine was chosen to illustrate this approach. It is a substance that is often found in cosmetics and for which oral repeated dose toxicity data were available. A rat PBK model was constructed in order to convert the oral NOAEL to rat internal exposure dose metrics, i.e. the area under the curve (AUC) and the maximum concentration (Cmax), both in plasma. A human oral PBK model was constructed and calibrated using human volunteer data and adapted to accommodate dermal absorption following human dermal exposure. Use of the MOIE approach based on internal dose metrics predictions provides excellent opportunities to investigate the consequences of variations in human dermal exposure scenarios. It can accommodate within-day variation in plasma concentrations and is scientifically more robust than assuming just an exposure in mg/kg bw/day.

Evaluation of Interindividual Human Variation in Bioactivation and DNA Adduct Formation of Estragole in Liver Predicted by Physiologically Based Kinetic/Dynamic and Monte Carlo Modeling.

Estragole is a known hepatocarcinogen in rodents at high doses following metabolic conversion to the DNA-reactive metabolite 1'-sulfooxyestragole. The aim of the present study was to model possible levels of DNA adduct formation in (individual) humans upon exposure to estragole. This was done by extending a previously defined PBK model for estragole in humans to include (i) new data on interindividual variation in the kinetics for the major PBK model parameters influencing the formation of 1'-sulfooxyestragole, (ii) an equation describing the relationship between 1'-sulfooxyestragole and DNA adduct formation, (iii) Monte Carlo modeling to simulate interindividual human variation in DNA adduct formation in the population, and (iv) a comparison of the predictions made to human data on DNA adduct formation for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol. Adequate model predictions could be made, with the predicted DNA adduct levels at the estimated daily intake of estragole of 0.01 mg/kg bw ranging between 1.6 and 8.8 adducts in 10(8) nucleotides (nts) (50th and 99th percentiles, respectively). This is somewhat lower than values reported in the literature for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol in surgical human liver samples. The predicted levels seem to be below DNA adduct levels that are linked with tumor formation by alkenylbenzenes in rodents, which were estimated to amount to 188-500 adducts per 10(8) nts at the BMD10 values of estragole and methyleugenol. Although this does not seem to point to a significant health concern for human dietary exposure, drawing firm conclusions may have to await further validation of the model's predictions.