Early economic evaluation to guide the development of a spectroscopic liquid biopsy for the detection of brain cancer.

OBJECTIVES: An early economic evaluation to inform the translation into clinical practice of a spectroscopic liquid biopsy for the detection of brain cancer. Two specific aims are (1) to update an existing economic model with results from a prospective study of diagnostic accuracy and (2) to explore the potential of brain tumor-type predictions to affect patient outcomes and healthcare costs. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis from a UK NHS perspective of the use of spectroscopic liquid biopsy in primary and secondary care settings, as well as a cost-consequence analysis of the addition of tumor-type predictions was conducted. Decision tree models were constructed to represent simplified diagnostic pathways. Test diagnostic accuracy parameters were based on a prospective validation study. Four price points (GBP 50-200, EUR 57-228) for the test were considered. RESULTS: In both settings, the use of liquid biopsy produced QALY gains. In primary care, at test costs below GBP 100 (EUR 114), testing was cost saving. At GBP 100 (EUR 114) per test, the ICER was GBP 13,279 (EUR 15,145), whereas at GBP 200 (EUR 228), the ICER was GBP 78,300 (EUR 89,301). In secondary care, the ICER ranged from GBP 11,360 (EUR 12,956) to GBP 43,870 (EUR 50,034) across the range of test costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the potential for the technology to be cost-effective in both primary and secondary care settings. Additional studies of test use in routine primary care practice are needed to resolve the remaining issues of uncertainty-prevalence in this patient population and referral behavior.

Development of high-throughput ATR-FTIR technology for rapid triage of brain cancer.

Non-specific symptoms, as well as the lack of a cost-effective test to triage patients in primary care, has resulted in increased time-to-diagnosis and a poor prognosis for brain cancer patients. A rapid, cost-effective, triage test could significantly improve this patient pathway. A blood test using attenuated total reflection (ATR)-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy for the detection of brain cancer, alongside machine learning technology, is advancing towards clinical translation. However, whilst the methodology is simple and does not require extensive sample preparation, the throughput of such an approach is limited. Here we describe the development of instrumentation for the analysis of serum that is able to differentiate cancer and control patients at a sensitivity and specificity of 93.2% and 92.8%. Furthermore, preliminary data from the first prospective clinical validation study of its kind are presented, demonstrating how this innovative technology can triage patients and allow rapid access to imaging.

Health economic evaluation of a serum-based blood test for brain tumour diagnosis: exploration of two clinical scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the potential costs and health benefits of a serum-based spectroscopic triage tool for brain tumours, which could be developed to reduce diagnostic delays in the current clinical pathway. DESIGN: A model-based health pre-trial economic assessment. Decision tree models were constructed based on simplified diagnostic pathways. Models were populated with parameters identified from rapid reviews of the literature and clinical expert opinion. SETTING: Explored as a test in both primary and secondary care (neuroimaging) in the UK health service, as well as application to the USA. PARTICIPANTS: Calculations based on an initial cohort of 10 000 patients. In primary care, it is estimated that the volume of tests would approach 75 000 per annum. The volume of tests in secondary care is estimated at 53 000 per annum. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), which were employed to derive incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in a cost-effectiveness analysis. RESULTS: Results indicate that using a blood-based spectroscopic test in both scenarios has the potential to be highly cost-effective in a health technology assessment agency decision-making process, as ICERs were well below standard threshold values of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY. This test may be cost-effective in both scenarios with test sensitivities and specificities as low as 80%; however, the price of the test would need to be lower (less than approximately £40). CONCLUSION: Use of this test as triage tool in primary care has the potential to be both more effective and cost saving for the health service. In secondary care, this test would also be deemed more effective than the current diagnostic pathway.

Bovine chymosin: a computational study of recognition and binding of bovine kappa-casein.

Bovine chymosin is an aspartic protease that selectively cleaves the milk protein kappa-casein. The enzyme is widely used to promote milk clotting in cheese manufacturing. We have developed models of residues 97-112 of bovine kappa-casein complexed with bovine chymosin, using ligand docking, conformational search algorithms, and molecular dynamics simulations. In agreement with limited experimental evidence, the model suggests that the substrate binds in an extended conformation with charged residues on either side of the scissile bond playing an important role in stabilizing the binding pose. Lys111 and Lys112 are observed to bind to the N-terminal domain of chymosin displacing a conserved water molecule. A cluster of histidine and proline residues (His98-Pro99-His100-Pro101-His102) in kappa-casein binds to the C-terminal domain of the protein, where a neighboring conserved arginine residue (Arg97) is found to be important for stabilizing the binding pose. The catalytic site (including the catalytic water molecule) is stable in the starting conformation of the previously proposed general acid/base catalytic mechanism for 18 ns of molecular dynamics simulations.