RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend active surveillance with serial magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for management of small, asymptomatic unruptured anterior circulation aneurysms (UIAs). We sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance compared to immediate surgery. METHODS: We developed a Markov cost-effectiveness model simulating patients with small (<7 mm) UIAs managed by active surveillance via MRA, immediate surgery, or watchful waiting. Inputs for the model were abstracted from the literature and used to construct a comprehensive model following persons from diagnosis to death. Outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime medical costs (2015 USD), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Immediate surgical treatment was the most cost-effective management strategy for small UIAs with ICER of USD 45,772 relative to active surveillance. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated immediate surgery was the preferred strategy, if rupture rate was >0.1%/year and if the diagnosis age was <70 years, while active surveillance was preferred if surgical complication risk was >11%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that at a willingness-to-pay of USD 100,000/QALY, immediate surgical treatment was the most cost-effective strategy in 64% of iterations. CONCLUSION: Immediate surgical treatment is a cost-effective strategy for initial management of small UIAs in patients <70 years of age. While more costly than MRA, surgical treatment increased QALY. The cost-effectiveness of immediate surgery is highly sensitive to diagnosis age, rupture rate, and surgical complication risk. Though there are a wide range of rupture rates and complications associated with treatment, this analysis supports the treatment of small, unruptured anterior circulation intracranial aneurysms in patients <70 years of age.