Determinants of the onset and prognosis of the post-COVID-19 condition: a 2-year prospective observational cohort study.

Background: At least 5-10% of subjects surviving COVID-19 develop the post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) or "Long COVID". The clinical presentation of PCC is heterogeneous, its pathogenesis is being deciphered, and objective, validated biomarkers are lacking. It is unknown if PCC is a single entity or a heterogeneous syndrome with overlapping pathophysiological basis. The large US RECOVER study identified four clusters of subjects with PCC according to their presenting symptoms. However, the long-term clinical implications of PCC remain unknown. Methods: We conducted a 2-year prospective cohort study of subjects surviving COVID-19, including individuals fulfilling the WHO PCC definition and subjects with full clinical recovery. We systematically collected post-COVID-19 symptoms using prespecified questionnaires and performed additional diagnostic imaging tests when needed. Factors associated with PCC were identified and modelled using logistic regression. Unsupervised clustering analysis was used to group subjects with PCC according to their presenting symptoms. Factors associated with PCC recovery were modelled using a direct acyclic graph approach. Findings: The study included 548 individuals, 341 with PCC, followed for a median of 23 months (IQR 16.5-23.5), and 207 subjects fully recovered. In the model with the best fit, subjects who were male and had tertiary studies were less likely to develop PCC, whereas a history of headache, or presence of tachycardia, fatigue, neurocognitive and neurosensitive complaints and dyspnea at COVID-19 diagnosis predicted the development of PCC. The cluster analysis revealed the presence of three symptom clusters with an additive number of symptoms. Only 26 subjects (7.6%) recovered from PCC during follow-up; almost all of them (n = 24) belonged to the less symptomatic cluster A, dominated mainly by fatigue. Recovery from PCC was more likely in subjects who were male, required ICU admission, or had cardiovascular comorbidities, hyporexia and/or smell/taste alterations during acute COVID-19. Subjects presenting with muscle pain, impaired attention, dyspnea, or tachycardia, conversely, were less likely to recover from PCC. Interpretation: Preexisting medical and socioeconomic factors, as well as acute COVID-19 symptoms, are associated with the development of and recovery from the PCC. Recovery is extremely rare during the first 2 years, posing a major challenge to healthcare systems. Funding: Fundació Lluita contra les Infeccions.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Clinical presentation and virological assessment of confirmed human monkeypox virus cases in Spain: a prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In May, 2022, several European countries reported autochthonous cases of monkeypox, which rapidly spread globally. Early reports suggest atypical presentations. We aimed to investigate clinical and virological characteristics of cases of human monkeypox in Spain. METHODS: This multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study was done in three sexual health clinics in Madrid and Barcelona, Spain. We enrolled all consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed monkeypox from May 11 to June 29, 2022. Participants were offered lesion, anal, and oropharynx swabs for PCR testing. Participant data were collected by means of interviews conducted by dermatologists or specialists in sexually transmitted infections and were recorded using a standard case report form. Outcomes assessed in all participants with a confirmed diagnosis were demographics, smallpox vaccination, HIV status, exposure to someone with monkeypox, travel, mass gathering attendance, risk factors for sexually transmitted infections, sexual behaviour, signs and symptoms on first presentation, virological results at multiple body sites, co-infection with other sexually transmitted pathogens, and clinical outcomes 14 days after the initial presentation. Clinical outcomes were followed up until July 13, 2022. FINDINGS: 181 patients had a confirmed monkeypox diagnosis and were enrolled in the study. 166 (92%) identified as gay men, bisexual men, or other men who have sex with men (MSM) and 15 (8%) identified as heterosexual men or heterosexual women. Median age was 37·0 years (IQR 31·0-42·0). 32 (18%) patients reported previous smallpox vaccination, 72 (40%) were HIV-positive, eight (11%) had a CD4 cell count less than 500 cells per µL, and 31 (17%) were diagnosed with a concurrent sexually transmitted infection. Median incubation was 7·0 days (IQR 5·0-10·0). All participants presented with skin lesions; 141 (78%) participants had lesions in the anogenital region, and 78 (43%) in the oral and perioral region. 70 (39%) participants had complications requiring treatment: 45 (25%) had a proctitis, 19 (10%) had tonsillitis, 15 (8%) had penile oedema, six (3%) an abscess, and eight (4%) had an exanthem. Three (2%) patients required hospital admission. 178 (99%) of 180 swabs from skin lesions collected tested positive, as did 82 (70%) of 117 throat swabs. Viral load was higher in lesion swabs than in pharyngeal specimens (mean cycle threshold value 23 [SD 4] vs 32 [6], absolute difference 9 [95% CI 8-10]; p<0·0001). 108 (65%) of 166 MSM reported anal-receptive sex. MSM who engaged in anal-receptive sex presented with proctitis (41 [38%] of 108 vs four [7%] of 58, absolute difference 31% [95% CI 19-44]; p<0·0001) and systemic symptoms before the rash (67 [62%] vs 16 [28%], absolute difference 34% [28-62]; p<0·0001) more frequently than MSM who did not engage in anal-receptive sex. 18 (95%) of 19 participants with tonsillitis reported practising oral-receptive sex. The median time from onset of lesions to formation of a dry crust was 10 days (IQR 7-13). INTERPRETATION: In our cohort, monkeypox caused genital, perianal, and oral lesions and complications including proctitis and tonsillitis. Because of the variability of presentations, clinicians should have a low threshold for suspicion of monkeypox. Lesion swabs showed the highest viral loads, which, combined with the history of sexual exposure and the distribution of lesions, suggests close contact is probably the dominant transmission route in the current outbreak. FUNDING: None.

The Evolving Landscape of HIV Drug Resistance Diagnostics for Expanding Testing in Resource-Limited Settings.

Global scale-up of antiretroviral treatment has dramatically changed the prospects of HIV/AIDS disease, rendering life-long chronic care and treatment a reality for millions of HIV-infected patients. Affordable technologies to monitor antiretroviral treatment are needed to ensure long-term durability of limited available drug regimens. HIV drug resistance tests can complement existing strategies in optimizing clinical decision-making for patients with treatment failure, in addition to facilitating population-based surveillance of HIV drug resistance. This review assesses the current landscape of HIV drug resistance technologies and discusses the strengths and limitations of existing assays available for expanding testing in resource-limited settings. These include sequencing-based assays (Sanger sequencing assays and nextgeneration sequencing), point mutation assays, and genotype-free data-based prediction systems. Sanger assays are currently considered the gold standard genotyping technology, though only available at a limited number of resource-limited setting reference and regional laboratories, but high capital and test costs have limited their wide expansion. Point mutation assays present opportunities for simplified laboratory assays, but HIV genetic variability, extensive codon redundancy at or near the mutation target sites with limited multiplexing capability have restricted their utility. Next-generation sequencing, despite high costs, may have potential to reduce the testing cost significantly through multiplexing in high-throughput facilities, although the level of bioinformatics expertise required for data analysis is currently still complex and expensive and lacks standardization. Web-based genotype-free prediction systems may provide enhanced antiretroviral treatment decision-making without the need for laboratory testing, but require further clinical field evaluation and implementation scientific research in resource-limited settings.

Deep sequencing for HIV-1 clinical management.

The emerging HIV-1 resistance epidemic is threatening the impressive global advances in HIV-1 infection treatment and prevention achieved in the last decade. Next-generation sequencing is improving our ability to understand, diagnose and prevent HIV-1 resistance, being increasingly cost-effective and more accessible. However, NGS still faces a number of limitations that need to be addressed to enable its widespread use. Here, we will review the main NGS platforms available for HIV-1 diagnosis, the factors affecting the clinical utility of NGS testing and the evidence supporting -or not- ultrasensitive genotyping over Sanger sequencing for routine HIV-1 diagnosis. Now that global HIV-1 eradication might be within our reach, making NGS accessible also to LMICs has become a priority. Reductions in sequencing costs, particularly in library preparation, and accessibility to low-cost, robust but simplified automated bioinformatic analyses of NGS data will remain essential to end the HIV-1 pandemic.

Transmission of HIV drug resistance: lessons from sensitive screening assays.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The review discusses new technologies for the sensitive detection of HIV drug resistance, with a focus on applications in antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naïve populations. RECENT FINDINGS: Conventional sequencing is well established for detecting HIV drug resistance in routine care and guides optimal treatment selection in patients starting ART. Access to conventional sequencing is nearly universal in Western countries, but remains limited in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Technological advances now allow detection of resistance with greatly improved sensitivity compared with conventional sequencing, variably increasing the yield of resistance testing in ART-naïve populations. There is strong cumulative evidence from retrospective studies that sensitive detection of resistant mutants in baseline plasma samples lacking resistance by conventional sequencing more than doubles the risk of virological failure after starting efavirenz-based or nevirapine-based ART. SUMMARY: Sensitive resistance testing methods are mainly confined to research applications and in this context have provided great insight into the dynamics of drug resistance development, persistence, and transmission. Adoption in care settings is becoming increasingly possible, although important challenges remain. Platforms for diagnostic use must undergo technical improvements to ensure good performance and ease of use, and clinical validation is required to ensure utility.

Impact of antiretroviral drugs in pregnant women and their children in Africa: HIV resistance and treatment outcomes.

The global community has committed itself to eliminating new pediatric HIV infections by 2015 and improving maternal, newborn, and child health and survival in the context of HIV. Such objectives require regimens to prevent mother-to-child transmission (pMTCT) which, while being highly efficacious, protect the efficacy of future first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Major obstacles to eliminating vertical transmissions globally include low rates of adherence to ART and non-completion of the 'pMTCT cascade' due to programmatic and structural challenges faced by healthcare systems in low-income countries. Providing all pregnant women with lifelong ART regardless of CD4 count/disease stage (Option B+) could be the most effective option to prevent both HIV transmission and resistance, assuming adherence is successfully maintained. This strategy is more likely to achieve sustained undetectable HIV viremia, does not involve ART interruptions, is simpler to implement, and is cost-effective. Where Option B+ is not available, options A (short course zidovudine with single-dose nevirapine and an ARV "tail") and B (combination ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding, with ART cessation after weaning in women not qualifying for ART for their own health) are also efficacious, highly cost-effective and associated with infrequent resistance selection if taken properly.

HIV-1 infection in subjects older than 70: a multicenter cross-sectional assessment in Catalonia, Spain.

We designed a multicenter cross-sectional study to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the HIV-1-infected population aged 70 years or more in our setting. 179 individuals from eight university hospitals in Barcelona, Spain, were included, representing 1.5% of HIV-1 infected subjects followed during 2008. Most subjects were male (76%) and had acquired HIV infection through sexual intercourse (87%); 69% had been diagnosed with HIV-1 after their sixties. The CD4 cell counts at HIV-1 diagnosis were < 200 cells/mm(3) in 52% of individuals, whereas this was only seen in 34% of subjects from a published cohort including younger HIV- infected adults from the same setting [1]. Most of our patients were on HAART, had undetectable HIV-1 viremia and the most recent median CD4 cell counts were >or= 350 cells/mm(3). 154 subjects had at least one comorbid condition, including dyslipidemia (54%), hypertension (36%), hyperglycemia or diabetes (30%), cardiovascular disease (23%), chronic renal failure (18%), history of neoplasia (17%) and cognitive impairment (11%). Lipodystrophy was reported in 58% of individuals. Rates of hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and cancer were higher than those reported in unselected local population (28%, 17% and 7%, respectively). The study participants were taking an average of 2.97 drugs (range 1-10) other than antiretrovirals. In conclusion, the elder population infected with HIV-1 is likely being diagnosed late and at lower CD4+ counts and is frequently affected by comorbidities and co-medication. Based on our findings, we suggest some recommendations regarding the management of this growing population.

In vivo fitness cost of the M184V mutation in multidrug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in the absence of lamivudine.

Lamivudine therapy selects for the M184V mutation. Although this mutation reduces the replicative capacity of human immunodeficiency virus in vitro, its impact on viral fitness in vivo has not been well defined. We used quantitative allele-specific PCR to precisely calculate the fitness differences between the mutated M184V virus and one that had reverted to the wild type in a cohort of patients by selectively interrupting reverse transcriptase inhibitor therapy, and we found that the M184V variants were consistently 4 to 8% less fit than the wild type in the absence of drug. After a lag phase of variable duration, wild-type variants emerged due to continued evolution of pol and back mutation rather than through emergence of an archived wild-type variant.