Early Serial Assessment of Aggregate Vasoactive Support and Mortality in Cardiogenic Shock: Insights From the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network Registry.

BACKGROUND: Associations of early changes in vasoactive support with cardiogenic shock (CS) mortality remain incompletely defined. METHODS: The Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network is a multicenter registry of cardiac intensive care units. Patients admitted with CS (2018-2023) had vasoactive dosing assessed at 4 and 24 hours from cardiac intensive care unit admission and quantified by the vasoactive-inotropic score (VIS). Prognostic associations of VIS at both time points, as well as change in VIS from 4 to 24 hours, were examined. Interaction testing was performed based on mechanical circulatory support status. RESULTS: Among 3665 patients, 82% had a change in VIS <10, with 7% and 11% having a ≥10-point increase and decrease from 4 to 24 hours, respectively. The 4 and 24-hour VIS were each associated with cardiac intensive care unit mortality (13%-45% and 11%-73% for VIS <10 to ≥40, respectively; Ptrend <0.0001 for each). Stratifying by the 4-hour VIS, changes in VIS from 4 to 24 hours had a graded association with mortality, ranging from a 2- to >4-fold difference in mortality comparing those with a ≥10-point increase to ≥10-point decrease in VIS (Ptrend <0.0001). The change in VIS alone provided good discrimination of cardiac intensive care unit mortality (C-statistic, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.70-0.75]) and improved discrimination of the 24-hour Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.72 [95% CI, 0.69-0.74] to 0.76 [95% CI, 0.74-0.78]) and the clinician-assessed Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions shock stage (0.72 [95% CI, 0.70-0.74] to 0.77 [95% CI, 0.75-0.79]). Although present in both groups, the mortality risk associated with VIS was attenuated in patients managed with versus without mechanical circulatory support (odds ratio per 10-point higher 24-hour VIS, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.23-1.49] versus 1.84 [95% CI, 1.69-2.01]; Pinteraction <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Early changes in the magnitude of vasoactive support in CS are associated with a gradient of risk for mortality. These data suggest that early VIS trajectory may improve CS prognostication, with the potential to be leveraged for clinical decision-making and research applications in CS.

Assessment of Atherothrombotic Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Risk of atherothrombotic events is not uniform in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Tailored risk assessment may help guide selection of pharmacotherapies for cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a risk model for atherothrombosis in patients with T2DM. METHODS: We developed and validated a risk model for myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke (IS) in a pooled cohort of 42,181 patients with T2DM from 4 TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) clinical trial cohorts. Candidate variables were assessed with multivariable Cox regression, and independent variables (P < 0.05) were retained in the final model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Treatment interactions with dapagliflozin (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor) and evolocumab (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor) were explored in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 58) and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk) trials, respectively. RESULTS: Sixteen variables were independent predictors of MI or IS. The model identified a >8-fold gradient of MI or IS rates between the top vs bottom risk quintiles in the validation cohort (3-year Kaplan-Meier rate: 14.9% vs 1.4%; P < 0.0001). C-indexes were 0.704 and 0.706 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model was well-calibrated in both primary and secondary prevention. Absolute reduction in the rates of MI or IS tended to be greater in patients with higher baseline predicted risk for both dapagliflozin (absolute risk reduction: 2.1% vs 0.2%) and evolocumab (absolute risk reduction: 3.2% vs 1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a risk score for atherothrombotic events, leveraging 16 routinely assessed clinical variables in patients with T2DM. The score has the potential to improve risk assessment and inform clinical decision-making.

Serial assessment of biomarkers and heart failure outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Cardiac functional and structural remodelling in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to development of heart failure (HF) as their major cardiovascular comorbidity. Circulating biomarkers may reflect these cardiac alterations. METHODS AND RESULTS: ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized trial of edoxaban versus warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. We performed a nested biomarker study, analysing high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT, n = 8705), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, n = 8765), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15, n = 8705) at baseline and 12 months. Of the biomarker cohort, 5207 had a history of HF, among whom 3996 had known ejection fraction (EF): 926 with reduced EF (HFrEF; ≤40%), 1043 with mildly reduced EF (HFmrEF; 40-49%), and 2027 with preserved EF (HFpEF; ≥50%). Elevated baseline hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 were associated with higher risk of hospitalization for HF (HHF) or HF death overall and in subpopulations defined by HF history and EF (p < 0.001 for each). These associations of outcome with each biomarker were consistent regardless of a history of HF or EF (p-interaction >0.05 for each). Patients who had an increase in or had persistently elevated values in any of the three biomarkers over 12 months were at higher risk for HHF or HF death in the overall population (p < 0.001 for each biomarker and category). CONCLUSION: Serial measurement of hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 revealed that higher baseline values, and increasing or persistently elevated values over 1 year are associated with higher risk of HF outcomes in patients with AF regardless of HF history or HF phenotype based on EF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov unique identifier NCT00781391.

A pragmatic lab-based tool for risk assessment in cardiac critical care: data from the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network (CCCTN) Registry.

AIMS: Contemporary cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) outcomes remain highly heterogeneous. As such, a risk-stratification tool using readily available lab data at time of CICU admission may help inform clinical decision-making. METHODS AND RESULTS: The primary derivation cohort included 4352 consecutive CICU admissions across 25 tertiary care CICUs included in the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network (CCCTN) Registry. Candidate lab indicators were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. An integer risk score incorporating the top independent lab indicators associated with in-hospital mortality was developed. External validation was performed in a separate CICU cohort of 9716 patients from the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN, USA). On multivariable analysis, lower pH [odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.72-2.24], higher lactate (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.62), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.10-1.45), and lower platelets (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.32) were the top four independent lab indicators associated with higher in-hospital mortality. Incorporated into the CCCTN Lab-Based Risk Score, these four lab indicators identified a 20-fold gradient in mortality risk with very good discrimination (C-index 0.82, 95% CI 0.80-0.84) in the derivation cohort. Validation of the risk score in a separate cohort of 3888 patients from the Registry demonstrated good performance (C-index of 0.82; 95% CI 0.80-0.84). Performance remained consistent in the external validation cohort (C-index 0.79, 95% CI 0.77-0.80). Calibration was very good in both validation cohorts (r = 0.99). CONCLUSION: A simple integer risk score utilizing readily available lab indicators at time of CICU admission may accurately stratify in-hospital mortality risk.