Assessment of the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Nonhospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Importance: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 have higher rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but the risk and predictors of VTE among individuals with less severe COVID-19 managed in outpatient settings are less well understood. Objectives: To assess the risk of VTE among outpatients with COVID-19 and identify independent predictors of VTE. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 2 integrated health care delivery systems in Northern and Southern California. Data for this study were obtained from the Kaiser Permanente Virtual Data Warehouse and electronic health records. Participants included nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with COVID-19 diagnosed between January 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021, with follow-up through February 28, 2021. Exposures: Patient demographic and clinical characteristics identified from integrated electronic health records. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the rate per 100 person-years of diagnosed VTE, which was identified using an algorithm based on encounter diagnosis codes and natural language processing. Multivariable regression using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to identify variables independently associated with VTE risk. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. Results: A total of 398 530 outpatients with COVID-19 were identified. The mean (SD) age was 43.8 (15.8) years, 53.7% were women, and 54.3% were of self-reported Hispanic ethnicity. There were 292 (0.1%) VTE events identified over the follow-up period, for an overall rate of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.24-0.30) per 100 person-years. The sharpest increase in VTE risk was observed during the first 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis (unadjusted rate, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.51-0.67 per 100 person-years vs 0.09; 95% CI, 0.08-0.11 per 100 person-years after 30 days). In multivariable models, the following variables were associated with a higher risk for VTE in the setting of nonhospitalized COVID-19: age 55 to 64 years (HR 1.85 [95% CI, 1.26-2.72]), 65 to 74 years (3.43 [95% CI, 2.18-5.39]), 75 to 84 years (5.46 [95% CI, 3.20-9.34]), greater than or equal to 85 years (6.51 [95% CI, 3.05-13.86]), male gender (1.49 [95% CI, 1.15-1.96]), prior VTE (7.49 [95% CI, 4.29-13.07]), thrombophilia (2.52 [95% CI, 1.04-6.14]), inflammatory bowel disease (2.43 [95% CI, 1.02-5.80]), body mass index 30.0-39.9 (1.57 [95% CI, 1.06-2.34]), and body mass index greater than or equal to 40.0 (3.07 [1.95-4.83]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of outpatients with COVID-19, the absolute risk of VTE was low. Several patient-level factors were associated with higher VTE risk; these findings may help identify subsets of patients with COVID-19 who may benefit from more intensive surveillance or VTE preventive strategies.

Long-term functional outcomes and mortality after hospitalization for extracranial hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: The effects of extracranial hemorrhage (ECH), or bleeding outside the brain, are often considered transient. Yet, there are few data on the long-term and functional consequences of ECH. OBJECTIVE: Define the association of ECH hospitalization with functional independence and survival in a nationally representative cohort of older adults. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1995 to 2016, a nationally representative, biennial survey of older adults. Adults aged 66 and above with Medicare linkage and at least 12 months of continuous Medicare Part A and B enrollment. INTERVENTION: Hospitalization for ECH. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted odds ratios and predicted likelihood of independence in all activities of daily living (ADLs), independence in all instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and extended nursing home stay. Adjusted hazard ratio and predicted likelihood for survival. RESULTS: In a cohort of 6719 subjects (mean age 77, 59% women) with average follow-up time of 8.3 years (55,767 person-years), 736 (11%) were hospitalized for ECH. ECH was associated with a 15% increase in ADL disability, 15% increase in IADL disability, 8% increase in nursing home stays, and 4% increase in mortality. After ECH, subjects became disabled and died at the same annual rate as pre-ECH but never recovered to pre-ECH levels of function. In conclusion, hospitalization for ECH was associated with significant and durable declines in independence and survival. Clinical and research efforts should incorporate the long-term harms of ECH into decision-making and strategies to mitigate these effects.

Succeeding in Aging Research During the Pandemic: Strategies for Fellows and Junior Faculty.

Fellows and junior faculty conducting aging research have encountered substantial new challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. They report that they have been uncertain how and whether to modify existing research studies, have faced difficulties with job searches, and have struggled to balance competing pressures including greater clinical obligations and increased responsibilities at home. Many have also wondered if they should shift gears and make COVID-19 the focus of their research. We asked a group of accomplished scientists and mentors to grapple with these concerns and to share their thoughts with readers of this journal.