Modeling the Cost of Vaccinating a Measles Zero-Dose Child in Zambia Using Three Vaccination Strategies.

Countries with moderate to high measles-containing vaccine coverage face challenges in reaching the remaining measles zero-dose children. There is growing interest in targeted vaccination activities to reach these children. We developed a framework for prioritizing districts for targeted measles and rubella supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for Zambia in 2020, incorporating the use of the WHO's Measles Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) and serosurveys. This framework was used to build a model comparing the cost of vaccinating one zero-dose child under three vaccination scenarios: standard nationwide SIA, targeted subnational SIA informed by MRAT, and targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and measles seroprevalence data. In the last scenario, measles seroprevalence data are acquired via either a community-based serosurvey, residual blood samples from health facilities, or community-based IgG point-of-contact rapid diagnostic testing. The deterministic model found that the standard nationwide SIA is the least cost-efficient strategy at 13.75 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated. Targeted SIA informed by MRAT was the most cost-efficient at 7.63 USD per zero-dose child, assuming that routine immunization is just as effective as subnational SIA in reaching zero-dose children. Under similar conditions, a targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and seroprevalence data resulted in 8.17-8.35 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated, suggesting that use of seroprevalence to inform SIA planning may not be as cost prohibitive as previously thought. Further refinement to the decision framework incorporating additional data may yield strategies to better target the zero-dose population in a financially feasible manner.

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. METHODS: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Adding new childhood vaccines to China's National Immunization Program: evidence, benefits, and priorities.

China's National Immunization Program has made remarkable achievements but does not include several important childhood vaccines that are readily available in the private market, such as pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine, Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib) vaccine, and varicella vaccine. We reviewed the literature to assess these four non-National Immunization Program vaccines in terms of their disease burdens, coverage, inequalities, and cost-effectiveness in China and aimed to recommend priorities for introducing them to the National Immunization Program. Based on our calculations using the available evidence, incorporating these vaccines into China's National Immunization Program in 2019 could have averted 11 761 deaths among children younger than 5 years, accounting for 10·29% of the total deaths in children younger than 5 years and reducing the mortality rate from 7·8 per 1000 to 7·0 per 1000. The review showed that 13-valent PCV (PCV13) had the lowest and most inequitable coverage but could prevent the highest number of deaths. In a budgetary analysis for the cohort of newborns in 2023, we estimated that the projected aggregate government costs were US$1954·92 million for PCV13, $1273·13 million for pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, $415·30 million for Hib vaccine, and $221·64 million for varicella vaccine. Our overall multicriteria decision analysis suggested the following priority order for introducing these four non-programme vaccines to the National Immunization Program to benefit the Chinese population: PCV13, rotavirus vaccine, Hib vaccine, and varicella vaccine.

An Estimate Of The Return On Investment Of A Malaria Vaccine In 20 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2021-30.

Malaria is a leading global health problem that was responsible for an estimated 619,000 deaths worldwide in 2021. We modeled the return on investment (ROI) for the introduction and continuation of a four-dose malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, from 2021 to 2030 in twenty sub-Saharan African countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We used the Decade of Vaccine Economics benefits and costing outputs to calculate an ROI using health impact data modeled by the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (hereafter "Swiss") and Imperial College London (hereafter "Imperial"). The Swiss estimates with a base vaccine price of US$7.00 resulted in an ROI of 0.42, and the Imperial impact estimates with the same base vaccine price resulted in an ROI of 2.30. Inclusion of the fifth seasonal dose for ten countries exhibiting high seasonal disease burden increased the Swiss ROI by 143 percent, to 1.02, and the Imperial ROI by 23.5 percent, to 2.84. To improve ROI, decision makers should continue to improve delivery platforms, decrease vaccine delivery costs, deliver the malaria vaccine in fewer doses, and provide access to vaccine resources.

Comparing Multivariate with Wealth-Based Inequity in Vaccination Coverage in 56 Countries: Toward a Better Measure of Equity in Vaccination Coverage.

INTRODUCTION: Following a call from the World Health Organization in 2017 for a methodology to monitor immunization coverage equity in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this study applies the Vaccine Economics Research for Sustainability and Equity (VERSE) vaccination equity toolkit to measure national-level inequity in immunization coverage using a multidimensional ranking procedure and compares this with traditional wealth-quintile based ranking methods for assessing inequity. The analysis covers 56 countries with a most recent Demographic & Health Survey (DHS) between 2010 and 2022. The vaccines examined include Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis-containing vaccine doses 1 through 3 (DTP1-3), polio vaccine doses 1-3 (Polio1-3), the measles-containing vaccine first dose (MCV1), and an indicator for being fully immunized for age with each of these vaccines. MATERIALS & METHODS: The VERSE equity toolkit is applied to 56 DHS surveys to rank individuals by multiple disadvantages in vaccination coverage, incorporating place of residence (urban/rural), geographic region, maternal education, household wealth, sex of the child, and health insurance coverage. This rank is used to estimate a concentration index and absolute equity coverage gap (AEG) between the top and bottom quintiles, ranked by multiple disadvantages. The multivariate concentration index and AEG are then compared with traditional concentration index and AEG measures, which use household wealth as the sole criterion for ranking individuals and determining quintiles. RESULTS: We find significant differences between the two sets of measures in almost all settings. For fully-immunized for age status, the inequities captured using the multivariate metric are between 32% and 324% larger than what would be captured examining inequities using traditional metrics. This results in a missed coverage gap of between 1.1 and 46.4 percentage points between the most and least advantaged. CONCLUSIONS: The VERSE equity toolkit demonstrated that wealth-based inequity measures systematically underestimate the gap between the most and least advantaged in fully-immunized for age coverage, correlated with maternal education, geography, and sex by 1.1-46.4 percentage points, globally. Closing the coverage gap between the bottom and top wealth quintiles is unlikely to eliminate persistent socio-demographic inequities in either coverage or access to vaccines. The results suggest that pro-poor interventions and programs utilizing needs-based targeting, which reflects poverty only, should expand their targeting criteria to include other dimensions to reduce systemic inequalities, holistically. Additionally, a multivariate metric should be considered when setting targets and measuring progress toward reducing inequities in healthcare coverage.

Financing And Funding Gap For 16 Vaccines Across 94 Low- And Middle-Income Countries, 2011-30.

We estimated immunization program costs, financing, and funding gaps for sixteen vaccines among ninety-four low- and middle-income countries during the period 2011-30. Inputs were obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the 2020 Decade of Vaccine Economics costing analysis, the World Health Organization, Gavi, and the United Nations Children's Fund. We found a total funding gap of $38.4 billion between 2011 and 2030, with the cost of immunization delivery being the main driver (86 percent) of the funding gap. On average, government financing of vaccination programs steadily rises throughout the period. However, the decline in both Gavi and development assistance for health (DAH) financing anticipated between 2011 and 2030 outpaces the forecasted increases in domestic government immunization spending. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied to both the costing and the scenario analyses to address uncertainty in the financing of vaccines and vaccine delivery. The results highlight a narrowing gap for vaccine acquisition but a growing gap for vaccine delivery, which emphasizes the critical need for resource mobilization and sustainable financial strategies for immunization programs at national and global levels, as well as a need to address the COVID-19 pandemic's potential effects on government financing for vaccines between 2021 and 2030.

Economic impact of vaccine safety incident in Ukraine: The economic case for safety system investment.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine confidence and coverage decreased following a death temporally but not causally related to measles vaccination in Ukraine in 2008. Large measles outbreaks including international exportations followed. Herein we characterize this experience including associated costs. METHODS: Mixed-methods were used to characterize this vaccine safety incident and quantify health and economic costs. Qualitative interviews illuminate the incident, social climate, and corruption that influenced vaccine confidence in Ukraine. A literature review explored attitudes toward vaccines in the USSR and post-independence Ukraine. Infectious disease incidence was examined before and after the vaccine safety incident. An economic analysis estimated associated healthcare costs, including prevention and outbreak control measures, additional vaccination activities due to failure of the 2008 campaign, treatment costs for new cases domestically and foreign exportation, and productivity loss from treatment time and mortality for new cases. FINDINGS: Vaccine hesitancy and distrust in government and public health programs due to corruption existed in Ukraine before the vaccine safety incident. The mishandling of the 2008 incident catalyzed the decline of vaccine confidence and prompted poor procurement decisions, leading to a drop in infant vaccination coverage, increased domestic measles cases, and exportation of measles. The estimated cost of this incident was approximately $140 million from 2008 to 2018. INTERPRETATION: Absent a rapid and credible vaccine safety response, a coincidental death following immunization resulted in major outbreaks of measles with substantial economic costs. Adequate investments in a post-licensure safety system may help avoid similar future incidents.

COVID-19 impact on index testing services and programmatic cost in 5 high HIV prevalence Indian districts.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions to curb the first wave of COVID-19 in India resulted in a decline in facility-based HIV testing rates, likely contributing to increased HIV transmission and disease progression. The programmatic and economic impact of COVID-19 on index testing, a standardized contact tracing strategy, remains unknown. METHODS: Retrospective programmatic and costing data were analyzed under a US government-supported program to assess the pandemic's impact on the programmatic outcomes and cost of index testing implemented in two Indian states (Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh). We compared index testing continuum outcomes during lockdown (April-June 2020) and post-lockdown (July-Sept 2020) relative to pre-lockdown (January-March 2020) by estimating adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) using negative binomial regression. Startup and recurrent programmatic costs were estimated across geographies using a micro-costing approach. Per unit costs were calculated for each index testing continuum outcome. RESULTS: Pre-lockdown, 2431 index clients were offered services, 3858 contacts were elicited, 3191 contacts completed HIV testing, 858 contacts tested positive, and 695 contacts initiated ART. Compared to pre-lockdown, the number of contacts elicited decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.11-0.16) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.43-0.56); and the total contacts newly diagnosed with HIV also decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.18-0.26) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.59). HIV positivity increased from 27% pre-lockdown to 40% during lockdown and decreased to 26% post-lockdown. Further, ART initiation improved from 81% pre-lockdown to 88% during lockdown and post-lockdown. The overall cost to operate index testing was $193,457 pre-lockdown and decreased during lockdown to $132,177 (32%) and $126,155 (35%) post-lockdown. Post-lockdown unit cost of case identification rose in facility sites ($372) compared to pre-lockdown ($205), however it decreased in community-based sites from pre-lockdown ($277) to post-lockdown ($166). CONCLUSIONS: There was a dramatic decline in the number of index testing clients in the wake of COVID-19 restrictions that resulted in higher unit costs to deliver services; yet, improved linkage to ART suggests that decongesting centres could improve efficiency. Training index testing staff to provide support across services including non-facility-based HIV testing mechanisms (i.e., telemedicine, HIV self-testing, community-based approaches) may help optimize resources during public health emergencies.

Value of statistical life year in extreme poverty: a randomized experiment of measurement methods in rural Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) provides an important economic measure of an individual's trade-off between health risks and other consumption, and is a widely used policy parameter. Measuring VSLY is complex though, especially in low-income and low-literacy communities. METHODS: Using a large randomized experiment (N = 3027), we study methodological aspects of stated-preference elicitation with payment cards (price lists) in an extreme poverty context. In a 2 × 2 design, we systematically vary whether buying or selling prices are measured, crossed with the range of the payment card. RESULTS: We find substantial effects of both the pricing method and the list range on elicited VSLY. Estimates of the gross domestic product per capita multiplier for VSLY range from 3.5 to 33.5 depending on the study design. Importantly, all estimates are economically and statistically significantly larger than the current World Health Organization threshold of 3.0 for cost-effectiveness analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results inform design choice in VSLY measurements, and provide insight into the potential variability of these measurements and possibly robustness checks.

Change in full immunization inequalities in Indian children 12-23 months: an analysis of household survey data.

BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child health in recent years. However, the country continues to account for a large number of vaccine preventable child deaths. We estimated wealth-related full immunization inequalities in India. We also calculated the degree to which predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors contribute to these inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the two rounds of a large nationally representative survey done in all states in India in 2005-06 (n = 9582) and 2015-16 (n = 49,284). Full immunization status was defined as three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, one dose of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine in children 12-23 months. We compared full immunization coverage by wealth quintiles using descriptive statistics. We calculated concentration indices for full immunization coverage at the national and state levels. Using predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors associated with full immunization status identified from the literature, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) framework with a binomial distribution and an identity link to decompose the concentration index. RESULTS: National full immunization coverage increased from 43.65% in 2005-06 to 62.46% in 2015-16. Overall, full immunization coverage in both 2005-06 and 2015-16 in all states was lowest in children from poorer households and improved with increasing socioeconomic status. The national concentration index decreased from 0.36 to 0.13 between the two study periods, indicating a reduction in poor-rich inequality. Similar reductions were observed for most states, except in states where inequalities were already minimal (i.e., Tamil Nadu) and in some northeastern states (i.e., Meghalaya and Manipur). In 2005-06, the contributors to wealth-related full immunization inequality were antenatal care, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. The same factors contributed to full immunization inequality in 2015-16 in addition to difficulty reaching a health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage and wealth-related equality have improved nationally and in most states over the last decade in India. Targeted, context-specific interventions could help address overall wealth-related full immunization inequalities. Intensified government efforts could help in this regard, particularly in high-focus states where child mortality remains high.

The relationship between development assistance for health and public health financing in 134 countries between 2000 and 2015.

This paper utilizes causal time-series and panel techniques to examine the relationship between development assistance for health (DAH) and domestic health spending, both public and private, in 134 countries between 2000 and 2015. Data on 237 656 donor transactions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's DAH and Health Expenditure datasets are merged with economic, demographic and health data from the World Bank Databank and World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. Arellano-Bond system GMM estimation is used to assess the effect of changes in DAH on domestic health spending and health outcomes. Analyses are conducted for the entire health sector and separately for HIV, TB and malaria financing. Results show that DAH had no significant impact on overall domestic public health investment. For HIV-specific investments, a $1 increase in on-budget DAH was associated with a $0.12 increase in government spending for HIV. For the private sector, $1 in DAH is associated with a $0.60 and $0.03 increase in prepaid private spending overall and for malaria, with no significant impact on HIV spending. Results demonstrate that a 1% increase in public financing reduced under-5 mortality by 0.025%, while a 1% increase in DAH had no significant effect on reducing under-5 mortality. The relationships between DAH and public health financing suggest that malaria and HIV-specific crowding-in effects are offset by crowding-out effects in other unobserved health sectors. The results also suggest policies that crowd-in public financing will likely have larger impacts on health outcomes than DAH investments that do not crowd-in public spending.

Costs of Immunization Programs for 10 Vaccines in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the level of investment needed for the 2021-2030 decade is important as the global community faces the next strategic period for vaccines and immunization programs. To assist with this goal, we estimated the aggregate costs of immunization programs for ten vaccines in 94 low- and middle-income countries from 2011 to 2030. METHOD: We calculated vaccine, immunization delivery and stockpile costs for 94 low- and middle-income countries leveraging the latest available data sources. We conducted scenario analyses to vary assumptions about the relationship between delivery cost and coverage as well as vaccine prices for fully self-financing countries. RESULTS: The total aggregate cost of immunization programs in 94 countries for 10 vaccines from 2011 to 2030 is $70.8 billion (confidence interval: $56.6-$93.3) under the base case scenario and $84.1 billion ($72.8-$102.7) under an incremental delivery cost scenario, with an increasing trend over two decades. The relative proportion of vaccine and delivery costs for pneumococcal conjugate, human papillomavirus, and rotavirus vaccines increase as more countries introduce these vaccines. Nine countries in accelerated transition phase bear the highest burden of the costs in the next decade, and uncertainty with vaccine prices for the 17 fully self-financing countries could lead to total costs that are 1.3-13.1 times higher than the base case scenario. CONCLUSION: Resource mobilization efforts at the global and country levels will be needed to reach the level of investment needed for the coming decade. Global-level initiatives and targeted strategies for transitioning countries will help ensure the sustainability of immunization programs.

Return On Investment From Immunization Against 10 Pathogens In 94 Low- And Middle-Income Countries, 2011-30.

Estimating the value of global investment in immunization programs is critical to helping decision makers plan and mobilize immunization programs and allocate resources required to realize their full benefits. We estimated economic benefits using cost-of-illness and value-of-a-statistical-life approaches and combined this estimation with immunization program costs to derive the return on investment from immunization programs against ten pathogens for ninety-four low- and middle-income countries for the period 2011-30. Using the cost-of-illness approach, return on investment for one dollar invested in immunization against our ten pathogens was 26.1 for the ninety-four countries from 2011 to 2020 and 19.8 from 2021 to 2030. Using the value-of-a-statistical-life approach, return on investment was 51.0 from 2011 to 2020 and 52.2 from 2021 to 2030. The results demonstrate continued high return on investment from immunization programs. The return-on-investment estimates from this study will inform country policy makers and decision makers in funding agencies and will contribute to efforts to mobilize resources for immunization. Realization of the full benefits of immunization will depend on sustained investment in and commitment to immunization programs.

Socioeconomic associations of poorly controlled epilepsy in the Republic of Guinea: cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the socioeconomic factors associated with epilepsy in the Republic of Guinea. METHODS: People living with epilepsy (PLWE) were prospectively recruited at Ignace Deen Hospital, Conakry, in 2018. An instrument exploring household assets as a measure of wealth was designed and administered. Multivariate logistic regression models with fixed effects were fitted to assess the associations of sociodemographic and microeconomic factors with self-reported frequency of seizures in the prior month and regular intake of antiseizure medications (ASMs). Participants were stratified by age group: children (<13 years), adolescents (13-21) and adults (>21). RESULTS: A total of 285 participants (mean age 19.5 years; 129 females; 106 children, 72 adolescents, 107 adults, median household size 8) had an average of 4.2 seizures in the prior month. 64% were regularly taking ASMs. Direct costs of epilepsy were similar across income strata, averaging 60 USD/month in the lowest and 75 USD/month in the highest wealth quintiles (P = 0.42). The poorest PLWE were more likely to spend their money on traditional treatments (average 35USD/month) than on medical consultations (average 11 USD/month) (P = 0.01), whereas the wealthiest participants were not. Higher seizure frequency was associated with a lower household education level in adolescents and children (P = 0.028; P = 0.026) and with being male (P = 0.009) in children. Adolescents in higher-educated households were more likely to take ASMs (P = 0.004). Boys were more likely to regularly take ASMs than girls (P = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted programming for children and adolescents in the households with the lowest education and for girls would help improve epilepsy care in Guinea.

OBJECTIF: Explorer les facteurs socioéconomiques associés à l'épilepsie en République de Guinée. MÉTHODES: Des personnes vivant avec l'épilepsie (PVE) ont été recrutées prospectivement à l'hôpital Ignace Deen, à Conakry, en 2018. Un outil explorant les actifs des ménages en tant que mesure de la richesse a été conçu et administré. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariée avec des effets fixes ont été ajustés pour évaluer les associations de facteurs sociodémographiques et microéconomiques avec la fréquence autodéclarée des crises au cours du mois précédent et la prise régulière de médicaments antiépileptiques (MAE). Les participants ont été stratifiés par groupe d'âge: enfants (<13 ans), adolescents (13-21) et adultes (> 21). RÉSULTATS: 285 participants (âge moyen 19,5 ans; 129 femmes; 106 enfants, 72 adolescents, 107 adultes, taille médiane du ménage 8) ont eu en moyenne 4,2 crises au cours du mois précédent. 64% prenaient régulièrement des MAE. Les coûts directs de l'épilepsie étaient similaires dans toutes les strates de revenus, atteignant en moyenne 60 USD/mois dans les quintiles de richesse les plus bas et 75 USD/mois dans les quintiles de richesse les plus élevés (p = 0,42). Les PVE les plus pauvres étaient plus susceptibles de dépenser leur argent pour des traitements traditionnels (35 USD/mois en moyenne) que pour des consultations médicales (11 USD/mois en moyenne) (p = 0,01), contrairement aux participants les plus riches. Une fréquence de crises plus élevée était associée à un niveau d'éducation du ménage plus faible chez les adolescents et les enfants (p = 0,028; p = 0,026) et au fait d'être de sexe masculin (p = 0,009) chez les enfants. Les adolescents des ménages avec un niveau d'éducation plus élevé étaient plus susceptibles de prendre des MAE (p = 0,004). Les garçons étaient plus susceptibles de prendre régulièrement des MAE que les filles (p = 0,047). CONCLUSIONS: Des programmes ciblés pour les enfants et les adolescents dans les ménages les moins scolarisés et pour les filles aideraient à améliorer les soins de l'épilepsie en Guinée.

The Value of a Statistical Life-Year in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From a Large Population-Based Survey in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) is the central number for the economic allocation of health resources. Nevertheless, empirical data on VSLY are lacking for most low- and middle- income countries. In the absence of empirically established VSLY, researchers typically use an arbitrary 3-times multiple of per-capita gross domestic product or per-capita income per life-year saved to establish cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we establish an empirical VSLY for the first time for a community in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: To empirically establish VSLY, we randomly selected 4000 individuals in the Ukonga community of Tanzania and employed a contingent valuation survey to measure VSLY. Using the contingent valuation methodology, we elicited willingness to pay for a 2% mortality risk reduction and had individuals convert this into an annualized payment to be paid each year over their expected remaining life. RESULTS: We compared our elicited value to per-capita income and found that mean VSLY is $9340 (95% CI $6206-$12 373). The mean annual income in our sample was $2069, resulting in a VSLY that is equivalent to 4.5 times per-capita income. CONCLUSION: Our results provide empirical evidence to support moving away from using the World Health Organization cost-effectiveness thresholds in practice because they will likely result in inefficient underinvestment in cost-effective interventions, even in relatively poor samples.

Quality-adjusted life year weights and treatment bias: Theory and evidence from cognitive interviews.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this research is to understand the thought processes that underpin responses to stated preference approaches for eliciting quality of life, in particular the standard gamble. METHODS: We utilize standard gamble preference elicitation survey techniques to elicit quality-adjusted life year weights for two reduced health states: chronic severe depression and total blindness. After the survey, we conduct open-ended qualitative interviews with respondents to determine their thought processes while taking the surveys and to shed light on what their quality-adjusted life year weight is capturing. Survey responses were coded and analyzed for themes in NVivo, the results of which were then formalized in the terminology of decision sciences. RESULTS: The qualitative results of the cognitive interviews present systematic evidence for a type of cognitive bias present in standard gamble quality-adjusted life year weight elicitation, which has not been previously highlighted and which we call treatment bias. We define this treatment bias as the consideration of salient treatment alternatives correlated with a reduced health state, when these alternatives are not explicitly posed in the question. Our formalization of this cognitive behavior demonstrates that treatment bias will always bias the elicited health state utility of treating the illness in question downward. CONCLUSION: The treatment bias highlighted in this study has implications for economic evaluation when comparing treatment for illnesses where alternative treatments are widely publicized versus those that are not. For example, comparing the effectiveness of treating depression versus arthritis may be biased against depression if advertisements for anti-depressants are more widely viewed by survey respondents than advertisements for arthritis treatments. We propose a statement to be imbedded in all questionnaires regarding stated preference elicitation of quality-adjusted life year weights in order to correct for this bias in future stated preference surveys.

Neuromyelitis optica testing and treatment: Availability and affordability in 60 countries.

BACKGROUND: We characterize the variations in availability and affordability of NMO diagnostic testing and treatment by geographic region and country-level income group. METHODS: A structured survey was distributed in English, French, and Spanish in late 2018 to neurologists and other physicians who encounter NMO patients. RESULTS: Respondents (response rate 45%, 64/143 countries contacted) came from all WHO world regions and World Bank country income levels (49% university-based; 13 low-, 16 lower middle-, 16 upper-middle-, and 15 high-income countries). The average cost of an aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-Ab) test to a patient globally was 209 USD, and the average cost of NMO treatment per year was 3,819 USD. AQP4-Ab and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-antibody (MOG-Ab) testing were available in 68% and 38% of all countries. Low-income countries had poor availability of both AQP4-Ab (2/13 countries) and MOG-Ab (1/13) compared to high-income countries (15/15 AQP4-Ab, 13/15 MOG-Ab). Nearly half (48%, 13/27) of African and Eastern Mediterranean countries had access to neither test. GLOBAL TREATMENT AVAILABILITY AND USAGE: Azathioprine (88%), rituximab (50%), mycophenolate mofetil (57%), intravenous methylprednisolone (98%), oral prednisone (68%), plasma exchange (78%), intravenous immunoglobulin (72%). Whereas 70-100% of high-income countries' patients could afford treatment without incurring a catastrophic health expenditure, <10% of low-income country patients could. Most low-income countries (12/13) reported the patient pays for NMO care entirely without public assistance CONCLUSIONS: There is a gap in access to diagnostic testing for NMO in non-high-income countries, even in countries where acute and immunosuppressive treatment for NMO are available.

Availability, accessibility, and affordability of neurodiagnostic tests in 37 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the availability, accessibility, and affordability of EEG, EMG, CSF analysis, head CT, and brain MRI for neurologic disorders across countries. METHODS: An online, 60-question survey was distributed to neurology practitioners in 2014 to assess the presence, wait time, and cost of each test in private and public health sectors. Data were stratified by World Bank country income group. Affordability was calculated with reference to the World Health Organization's definition of catastrophic health expenditure as health-related out-of-pocket expenditure of >40% of disposable household income, and assessment of providers' perceptions of affordability to the patient. RESULTS: Availability of EEG and EMG is correlated with higher World Bank income group (correlation coefficient 0.38, test for trend p = 0.046; 0.376, p = 0.043); CSF, CT, and MRI did not show statistically significant associations with income groups. Patients in public systems wait longer for neurodiagnostic tests, especially MRI, EEG, and urgent CT (p < 0.0001). The mean cost per test, across all tests, was lower in the public vs private sector (US $55.25 vs $214.62, p < 0.001). Each drop in World Bank income group is associated with a 29% decrease in the estimated share of the population who can afford a given test (95% confidence interval -33.4, 25.2; p < 0.001). In most low-income countries surveyed, only the top 10% or 20% of the population was able to afford tests below catastrophic levels. In surveyed lower-middle-income countries, >40% of the population, on average, could not afford neurodiagnostic tests. CONCLUSIONS: Neurodiagnostic tests are least affordable in the lowest income settings. Closing this "diagnostic gap" for countries with the lowest incomes is essential.