Populational Perceptions Regarding Decision to Visit the Emergency Room with Chest Pain During COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: A significant decrease in emergency presentations of acute cardiac conditions has been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to understand perceptions that influence people's decisions whether to present to the emergency department (ED) with symptoms related to acute cardiovascular events to inform necessary medical communication. METHODS: We recruited users of Amazon Mechanical Turk (Seattle, WA) to participate in a survey to elucidate perceptions of COVID-19 risk associated with a visit to the ED. A conjoint analysis was designed based on commonly reported factors associated with people's decisions to present to the ED during the pandemic to calculate preference utilities. RESULTS: After exclusions, 1003 participants completed the survey between 12/5/2020 and 12/6/2020. Participants ranked the perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 at the ED as one of the highest, only second to that at bars and restaurants. Only 68% (685/1003) were willing to present to the ED immediately with severe chest pain. Fear of further transmitting the virus to loved ones was the most frequently cited reason for not presenting. Conjoint analysis demonstrated severe chest pain to be the dominant factor in the decision to present to the ED. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of contracting COVID-19 while presenting to the ED for a life-threatening cardiovascular symptom is overestimated and is strongly affected by social factors.

Geographically Derived Socioeconomic Factors to Improve Risk Prediction in Patients Having Aortic Valve Replacement.

Socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery, but is not included in commonly applied risk adjustment models. This study evaluates whether inclusion of SES improves aortic valve replacement (AVR) risk prediction models, as this is the most common elective operation performed at our institution during the study period. All patients who underwent AVR at a single institution from 2005 to 2015 were evaluated. SES measures included unemployment, poverty, household income, home value, educational attainment, housing density, and a validated SES index score. The risk scores for mortality, complications, and increased length of stay were generated using models published by the Society for Thoracic Surgeons. Univariate models were fitted for each SES covariate and multivariable models for mortality, any complication, and prolonged length of stay (PLOS). A total of 1,386 patients underwent AVR with a 2.7% mortality, 15.1% complication rate, and 9.7% PLOS. In univariate models, higher education was associated with decreased mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.96, p = 0.04) and complications (OR 0.97, p <0.01). Poverty was associated with increased length of stay (OR 1.02, p = 0.02). In the multivariable models, the inclusion of SES covariates increased the area under the curve for mortality (0.735 to 0.750, p = 0.14), for any complications (0.663 to 0.680, p <0.01), and for PLOS (0.749 to 0.751, p = 0.12). The inclusion of census-tract-level socioeconomic factors into the the Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk predication models is new and shows potential to improve risk prediction for outcomes after cardiac surgery. With the possibility of reimbursement and institutional ranking based on these outcomes, this study represents an improvement in risk prediction model.