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1.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1374, 2024 May 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38778362

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.


Assuntos
Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência , União Europeia , Carga Global da Doença , Expectativa de Vida , Humanos , União Europeia/estatística & dados numéricos , Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência/tendências , Masculino , Nível de Saúde , Feminino , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença
2.
Popul Health Metr ; 22(1): 8, 2024 Apr 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38654242

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030. METHODS: This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions. CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Bélgica/epidemiologia , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Masculino , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Pré-Escolar , Prevalência , Lactente , Fatores de Risco , Recém-Nascido , Incidência , Previsões , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Simulação por Computador
3.
Diabetologia ; 67(3): 420-429, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38177563

RESUMO

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar , Humanos , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/efeitos adversos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etiologia , Bebidas/efeitos adversos , Impostos , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Obesidade/etiologia
4.
Eur J Public Health ; 33(1): 121-126, 2023 02 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36421036

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the effects of population ageing on disease burden and explore conditions that drive poor health in later life to prevent or manage these. We examined the development of disease burden and its components for major disease groups among older adults in Europe over the last 30 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, we analyzed burden of disease trends between 1990 and 2019 measured by years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among older adults (65+ years) in Western, Central and Eastern Europe using cause groups for diseases and injuries. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the crude numbers of DALYs for all causes increased substantially among older Western Europeans. In Eastern Europe, the absolute DALYs also increased from 1990 to 2005 but then decreased between 2006 and 2013. However, DALY rates declined for all European regions over time, with large differences in the magnitude by region and gender. Changes in the YLL rate were mainly driven by the contribution of cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This study found an increased overall absolute disease burden among older Europeans between 1990 and 2019. The demographic change that has taken place in Eastern European countries implies a potential problem of directed resource allocation to the health care sector. Furthermore, the findings highlight the potential health gains through directing resources to health promotion and treatment to reduce YLDs and to prevent YLLs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Pessoas com Deficiência , Carga Global da Doença , Mortalidade , Idoso , Humanos , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Saúde Global , Expectativa de Vida , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Mortalidade/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência
5.
Front Public Health ; 10: 907012, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35734754

RESUMO

Objectives: Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years. Methods: The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021. Results: National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic. Discussion: Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Humanos , Morbidade , Pandemias , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
6.
J Am Coll Cardiol ; 79(3): 283-298, 2022 01 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35057915

RESUMO

Implementing a health promotion program for children is a complex endeavor. In this review, we outline the key lessons learned over 10 years of experience in implementing the SI! Program (Salud Integral-Comprehensive Health) for cardiovascular health promotion in preschool settings in 3 countries: Colombia (Bogotá), Spain (Madrid), and the United States (Harlem, New York). By matching rigorous efficacy studies with implementation science, we can help bridge the divide between science and educational practice. Achieving sustained lifestyle changes in preschool children through health promotion programs is likely to require the integration of several factors: 1) multidisciplinary teams; 2) multidimensional educational programs; 3) multilevel interventions; 4) local program coordination and community engagement; and 5) scientific evaluation through randomized controlled trials. Implementation of effective health promotion interventions early in life may induce long-lasting healthy behaviors that could help to curb the cardiovascular disease epidemic.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Promoção da Saúde/organização & administração , Pré-Escolar , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Serviços de Saúde Escolar
7.
Cancer Epidemiol ; 61: 30-37, 2019 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31128428

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although healthcare databases are a valuable source for real-world oncology data, cancer stage is often lacking. We developed predictive models using claims data to identify metastatic/advanced-stage patients with ovarian cancer, urothelial carcinoma, gastric adenocarcinoma, Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Patients with ≥1 diagnosis of a cancer of interest were identified in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), a United States (US) healthcare database (2010-2016). Data were linked to three US state cancer registries and the HealthCore Integrated Research Environment Oncology database to identify cancer stage. Predictive models were constructed to estimate the probability of metastatic/advanced stage. Predictors available in the HIRD were identified and coefficients estimated by Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation to control overfitting. Classification error rates and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to select probability thresholds for classifying patients as cases of metastatic/advanced cancer. RESULTS: We used 2723 ovarian cancer, 6522 urothelial carcinoma, 1441 gastric adenocarcinoma, 109 MCC, and 12,373 NSCLC cases of early and metastatic/advanced cancer to develop predictive models. All models had high discrimination (C > 0.85). At thresholds selected for each model, PPVs were all >0.75: ovarian cancer = 0.95 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.94-0.96), urothelial carcinoma = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86), gastric adenocarcinoma = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.88), MCC = 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.89), and NSCLC = 0.91 (95% CI 0.90 - 0.92). CONCLUSION: Predictive modeling was used to identify five types of metastatic/advanced cancer in a healthcare claims database with greater accuracy than previous methods.


Assuntos
Seguro Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Sistema de Registros , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
8.
PLoS One ; 13(7): e0200378, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29979761

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. METHODS: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. CONCLUSION: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Dieta , Doenças Metabólicas/mortalidade , Política Nutricional , Obesidade Infantil/epidemiologia , Instituições Acadêmicas , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Índice de Massa Corporal , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Simulação por Computador , Ingestão de Alimentos , Comportamento Alimentar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Doenças Metabólicas/prevenção & controle , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Obesidade Infantil/prevenção & controle , Medição de Risco , Estados Unidos
9.
J Epidemiol Community Health ; 72(9): 817-824, 2018 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29748418

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal diets are a major contributor to cardiometabolic disease (CMD) mortality, and substantial disparities exist for both dietary quality and mortality risk across income groups in the USA. Research is needed to quantify how food pricing policies to subsidise healthy foods and tax unhealthy foods could affect the US CMD mortality, overall and by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) eligibility and participation. METHODS: Comparative risk analysis based on national data on diet (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2012) and mortality (mortality-linked National Health Interview Survey) and meta-analyses of policy-diet and diet-disease relationships. RESULTS: A national 10% price reduction on fruits, vegetables, nuts and whole grains was estimated to prevent 19 600 CMD deaths/year, including 2.6% (95% UI 2.4% to 2.8%) of all CMD deaths among SNAP participants, 2.7% (95% UI 2.4% to 3.0%) among SNAP-eligible non-participants and 2.6% (95% UI 2.4% to 2.8%) among SNAP-ineligible non-participants. Adding a national 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and processed meats would prevent a total of 33 700 CMD deaths/year, including 5.9% (95% UI 5.4% to 7.4%) of all CMD deaths among SNAP participants, 4.8% (95% UI 4.4% to 5.2%) among SNAP-eligible non-participants and 4.1% (95% UI 3.8% to 4.5%) among SNAP-ineligible non-participants. Adding a SNAP-targeted 30% subsidy for the same healthy foods would offer the largest reductions in both CMD mortality and disparities. CONCLUSION: National subsidies for healthy foods and taxes on SSBs and processed meats would each reduce CMD mortality; taxes would also reduce CMD mortality more steeply for SNAP participants than for non-participants.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Assistência Alimentar , Alimentos/economia , Comércio , Comportamento Alimentar , Humanos , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
10.
PLoS One ; 13(3): e0194555, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29596440

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: School food environment policies may be a critical tool to promote healthy diets in children, yet their effectiveness remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and quantify the impact of school food environment policies on dietary habits, adiposity, and metabolic risk in children. METHODS: We systematically searched online databases for randomized or quasi-experimental interventions assessing effects of school food environment policies on children's dietary habits, adiposity, or metabolic risk factors. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate, and pooled using inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Habitual (within+outside school) dietary intakes were the primary outcome. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. Funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's test evaluated potential publication bias. RESULTS: From 6,636 abstracts, 91 interventions (55 in US/Canada, 36 in Europe/New Zealand) were included, on direct provision of healthful foods/beverages (N = 39 studies), competitive food/beverage standards (N = 29), and school meal standards (N = 39) (some interventions assessed multiple policies). Direct provision policies, which largely targeted fruits and vegetables, increased consumption of fruits by 0.27 servings/d (n = 15 estimates (95%CI: 0.17, 0.36)) and combined fruits and vegetables by 0.28 servings/d (n = 16 (0.17, 0.40)); with a slight impact on vegetables (n = 11; 0.04 (0.01, 0.08)), and no effects on total calories (n = 6; -56 kcal/d (-174, 62)). In interventions targeting water, habitual intake was unchanged (n = 3; 0.33 glasses/d (-0.27, 0.93)). Competitive food/beverage standards reduced sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 0.18 servings/d (n = 3 (-0.31, -0.05)); and unhealthy snacks by 0.17 servings/d (n = 2 (-0.22, -0.13)), without effects on total calories (n = 5; -79 kcal/d (-179, 21)). School meal standards (mainly lunch) increased fruit intake (n = 2; 0.76 servings/d (0.37, 1.16)) and reduced total fat (-1.49%energy; n = 6 (-2.42, -0.57)), saturated fat (n = 4; -0.93%energy (-1.15, -0.70)) and sodium (n = 4; -170 mg/d (-242, -98)); but not total calories (n = 8; -38 kcal/d (-137, 62)). In 17 studies evaluating adiposity, significant decreases were generally not identified; few studies assessed metabolic factors (blood lipids/glucose/pressure), with mixed findings. Significant sources of heterogeneity or publication bias were not identified. CONCLUSIONS: Specific school food environment policies can improve targeted dietary behaviors; effects on adiposity and metabolic risk require further investigation. These findings inform ongoing policy discussions and debates on best practices to improve childhood dietary habits and health.


Assuntos
Comportamento Infantil/fisiologia , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição Infantil/fisiologia , Política Nutricional/legislação & jurisprudência , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Instituições Acadêmicas/legislação & jurisprudência , Adiposidade/fisiologia , Criança , Análise Custo-Benefício , Comportamento Alimentar/fisiologia , Comportamento Alimentar/psicologia , Serviços de Alimentação/economia , Serviços de Alimentação/legislação & jurisprudência , Serviços de Alimentação/normas , Guias como Assunto , Humanos , Política Nutricional/economia , Obesidade/prevenção & controle , Instituições Acadêmicas/economia , Instituições Acadêmicas/normas
11.
BMC Med ; 15(1): 208, 2017 11 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29178869

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US. METHODS: Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES). RESULTS: Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Diabetes Mellitus/economia , Financiamento Governamental , Alimentos/economia , Impostos , Adulto , Idoso , Bebidas , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/etiologia , Dieta , Feminino , Frutas , Humanos , Renda , Masculino , Carne , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nozes , Medição de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/economia , Estados Unidos , Verduras
12.
Am J Clin Nutr ; 106(1): 199-206, 2017 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28566311

RESUMO

Background: A low intake of fruits and vegetables (F&Vs) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the United States. Both mass media campaigns (MMCs) and economic incentives may increase F&V consumption. Few data exist on their comparative effectiveness.Objective: We estimated CVD mortality reductions potentially achievable by price reductions and MMC interventions targeting F&V intake in the US population.Design: We developed a US IMPACT Food Policy Model to compare 3 policies targeting F&V intake across US adults from 2015 to 2030: national MMCs and national F&V price reductions of 10% and 30%. We accounted for differences in baseline diets, CVD rates, MMC coverage, MMC duration, and declining effects over time. Outcomes included cumulative CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke) deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained (LYGs) over the study period, stratified by age, sex, and race.Results: A 1-y MMC in 2015 would increase the average national F&V consumption by 7% for 1 y and prevent ∼18,600 CVD deaths (95% CI: 17,600, 19,500), gaining ∼280,100 LYGs by 2030. With a 15-y MMC, increased F&V consumption would be sustained, yielding a 3-fold larger reduction (56,100; 95% CI: 52,400, 57,700) in CVD deaths. In comparison, a 10% decrease in F&V prices would increase F&V consumption by ∼14%. This would prevent ∼153,300 deaths (95% CI: 146,400, 159,200), gaining ∼2.51 million LYGs. For a 30% price decrease, resulting in a 42% increase in F&V consumption, corresponding values would be 451,900 CVD deaths prevented or postponed (95% CI: 433,100, 467,500) and 7.3 million LYGs gained. Effects were similar by sex, with a smaller proportional effect and larger absolute effects at older ages. A 1-y MMC would be 35% less effective in preventing CVD deaths in non-Hispanic blacks than in whites. In comparison, price-reduction policies would have equitable proportional effects.Conclusion: Both national MMCs and price-reduction policies could reduce US CVD mortality, with price reduction being more powerful and sustainable.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Comércio , Dieta , Promoção da Saúde/métodos , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Meios de Comunicação de Massa , Grupos Raciais , Adulto , Idoso , Comportamento Alimentar , Feminino , Frutas , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Motivação , Política Nutricional , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Verduras
13.
PLoS One ; 12(3): e0172277, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28249003

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: While food pricing is a promising strategy to improve diet, the prospective impact of food pricing on diet has not been systematically quantified. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the prospective effect of changes in food prices on dietary consumption. DESIGN: We systematically searched online databases for interventional or prospective observational studies of price change and diet; we also searched for studies evaluating adiposity as a secondary outcome. Studies were excluded if price data were collected before 1990. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate. Findings were pooled using DerSimonian-Laird's random effects model. Pre-specified sources of heterogeneity were analyzed using meta-regression; and potential for publication bias, by funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests. RESULTS: From 3,163 identified abstracts, 23 interventional studies and 7 prospective cohorts with 37 intervention arms met inclusion criteria. In pooled analyses, a 10% decrease in price (i.e., subsidy) increased consumption of healthful foods by 12% (95%CI = 10-15%; N = 22 studies/intervention arms) whereas a 10% increase price (i.e. tax) decreased consumption of unhealthful foods by 6% (95%CI = 4-8%; N = 15). By food group, subsidies increased intake of fruits and vegetables by 14% (95%CI = 11-17%; N = 9); and other healthful foods, by 16% (95%CI = 10-23%; N = 10); without significant effects on more healthful beverages (-3%; 95%CI = -16-11%; N = 3). Each 10% price increase reduced sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 7% (95%CI = 3-10%; N = 5); fast foods, by 3% (95%CI = 1-5%; N = 3); and other unhealthful foods, by 9% (95%CI = 6-12%; N = 3). Changes in price of fruits and vegetables reduced body mass index (-0.04 kg/m2 per 10% price decrease, 95%CI = -0.08-0 kg/m2; N = 4); price changes for sugar-sweetened beverages or fast foods did not significantly alter body mass index, based on 4 studies. Meta-regression identified direction of price change (tax vs. subsidy), number of intervention components, intervention duration, and study quality score as significant sources of heterogeneity (P-heterogeneity<0.05 each). Evidence for publication bias was not observed. CONCLUSIONS: These prospective results, largely from interventional studies, support efficacy of subsidies to increase consumption of healthful foods; and taxation to reduce intake of unhealthful beverages and foods. Use of subsidies and combined multicomponent interventions appear most effective.


Assuntos
Adiposidade , Ingestão de Alimentos , Abastecimento de Alimentos/economia , Custos e Análise de Custo , Humanos
14.
Circulation ; 133(10): 967-78, 2016 Mar 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26846769

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities. METHODS AND RESULTS: To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths. CONCLUSIONS: After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/etnologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Etnicidade/etnologia , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Modelos Teóricos , Grupos Raciais/etnologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Fatores de Risco , Programa de SEER/tendências , Estados Unidos/etnologia
15.
Public Health Nutr ; 18(2): 275-85, 2015 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24698168

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the agreement between self-reported and parent-reported dietary and physical activity habits in children; and to evaluate the socio-economic determinants of healthier habits (Mediterranean diet and physical activity) among children. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of children recruited to a cluster-randomized controlled trial (Program SI!). Information about children's and parents' dietary and physical activity habits was obtained through validated questionnaires (Program SI! questionnaires, Kidmed, Krece Plus and Predimed scores). SETTING: Twenty-four schools in Madrid, Spain. SUBJECTS: Children (n 2062) aged 3-5 years and their parents (n 1949). RESULTS: There was positive agreement between parental- and self-reporting for three of the six children's habits examined. Parents' dietary and physical activity patterns were associated with those of their children. The main determinants of higher scores in children were higher parental age, the mother's scores, Spanish origin and higher awareness of human health (P<0·005). Children from parents with a low educational level had lower odds for scoring positively on items such as using olive oil (OR=0·23; 95 % CI 0·13, 0·41) and not skipping breakfast (OR=0·36; 95 % CI 0·23, 0·55), but higher odds for meeting the recommendations for consuming pulses (OR=1·71; 95 % CI 1·14, 2·55). Other habits being influenced by parental socio-economic status included the consumption of vegetables, fish, nuts, avoidance of fast food, and consumption of bakery products for breakfast. CONCLUSIONS: Children's habits may be influenced by their parents' health awareness and other socio-economic characteristics. These findings suggest that intervention strategies, even in very young children, should also target parents in order to achieve maximum success.


Assuntos
Comportamento Infantil , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição Infantil , Dieta , Comportamento Alimentar , Hábitos , Atividade Motora , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Dieta Mediterrânea , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Comportamento Materno , Política Nutricional , Pais , Comportamento Paterno , Cooperação do Paciente , Instituições Acadêmicas , Autorrelato , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Espanha , População Urbana
16.
Public Health Nutr ; 18(6): 959-67, 2015 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25025396

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To design and develop a questionnaire that can account for an individual's adherence to a Mediterranean lifestyle including the assessment of diet and physical activity patterns, as well as social interaction. DESIGN: The Mediterranean Lifestyle (MEDLIFE) index was created based on the current Spanish Mediterranean food guide pyramid. MEDLIFE is a twenty-eight-item derived index consisting of questions about food consumption (fifteen items), traditional Mediterranean dietary habits (seven items) and physical activity, rest and social interaction habits (six items). Linear regression models and Spearman rank correlation were fitted to assess content validity and internal consistency. SETTING: A subset of participants in the Aragon Workers' Health Study cohort (Zaragoza, Spain) provided the data for development of MEDLIFE. SUBJECTS: Participants (n 988) of the Aragon Workers' Health Study cohort in Spain. RESULTS: Mean MEDLIFE score was 11·3 (sd 2·6; range: 0-28), and the quintile distribution of MEDLIFE score showed a significant association with each of the individual items as well as with specific nutrients and lifestyle indicators (intra-validity). We also quantified MEDLIFE correspondence with previously reported diet quality indices and found significant correlations (ρ range: 0·44-0·53; P<0·001) for the Alternate Healthy Eating Index, the Alternate Mediterranean Diet Index and Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener. CONCLUSIONS: MEDLIFE is the first index to include an overall assessment of lifestyle habits. It is expected to be a more holistic tool to measure adherence to the Mediterranean lifestyle in epidemiological studies.


Assuntos
Hábitos , Promoção da Saúde/métodos , Estilo de Vida , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Cooperação do Paciente , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Dieta Mediterrânea/etnologia , Feminino , Humanos , Relações Interpessoais , Estilo de Vida/etnologia , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Região do Mediterrâneo , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Atividade Motora , Avaliação Nutricional , Cooperação do Paciente/etnologia , Descanso , Espanha , Inquéritos e Questionários
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