Assessment of the impact of a personalised nutrition intervention in impaired glucose regulation over 26 weeks: a randomised controlled trial.

Dietary interventions can reduce progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. In this study we aimed to determine the impact of a DNA-personalised nutrition intervention in people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia over 26 weeks. ASPIRE-DNA was a pilot study. Participants were randomised into three arms to receive either (i) Control arm: standard care (NICE guidelines) (n = 51), (ii) Intervention arm: DNA-personalised dietary advice (n = 50), or (iii) Exploratory arm: DNA-personalised dietary advice via a self-guided app and wearable device (n = 46). The primary outcome was the difference in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between the Control and Intervention arms after 6 weeks. 180 people were recruited, of whom 148 people were randomised, mean age of 59 years (SD = 11), 69% of whom were female. There was no significant difference in the FPG change between the Control and Intervention arms at 6 weeks (- 0.13 mmol/L (95% CI [- 0.37, 0.11]), p = 0.29), however, we found that a DNA-personalised dietary intervention led to a significant reduction of FPG at 26 weeks in the Intervention arm when compared to standard care (- 0.019 (SD = 0.008), p = 0.01), as did the Exploratory arm (- 0.021 (SD = 0.008), p = 0.006). HbA1c at 26 weeks was significantly reduced in the Intervention arm when compared to standard care (- 0.038 (SD = 0.018), p = 0.04). There was some evidence suggesting prevention of progression to T2DM across the groups that received a DNA-based intervention (p = 0.06). Personalisation of dietary advice based on DNA did not result in glucose changes within the first 6 weeks but was associated with significant reduction of FPG and HbA1c at 26 weeks when compared to standard care. The DNA-based diet was effective regardless of intervention type, though results should be interpreted with caution due to the low sample size. These findings suggest that DNA-based dietary guidance is an effective intervention compared to standard care, but there is still a minimum timeframe of adherence to the intervention before changes in clinical outcomes become apparent.Trial Registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov.uk Ref: NCT03702465.

The economic burden of stomas in the UK: a retrospective observational study of health records and hospital encounters.

BACKGROUND: Stomas divert waste from the small intestine (ileostomy), large intestine (colostomy) or ureters (urostomy), and complications are common. AIMS: This study evaluated healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) and costs of stomas from a UK perspective. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of adults with new stomas (New Stoma Group) or new/existing stomas and >6 months of follow-up (Established Stoma Group) using health records linked with hospital encounters (January 2009-December 2018). Age- and sex-matched controls were identified for each stoma case (1:50). FINDINGS: Both the New (n=8533) and Established (n=9397) stoma groups had significantly higher HCRU (all P<0.0001) and associated costs (all P<0.01), driven by inpatient admissions. New Stoma Group: colostomy versus controls, £3227 versus £99 per person; ileostomy, £2576 versus £78 per person; and urostomy, £2850 versus £110 per person (all P<0.0001). Findings were similar in the Established Stoma Group. CONCLUSION: Stomas are associated with a substantial economic burden in the UK driven by hospital care. (Supplementary data tables can be obtained from the authors.).

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and corresponding geographical inequalities in England: interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been disruption to the detection and management of those with hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF) during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is likely to vary geographically and could have implications for future mortality and morbidity. We aimed to estimate the change in diagnosed prevalence, treatment and prescription indicators for AF and hypertension and assess corresponding geographical inequalities. METHODS: Using the Quality and Outcomes Framework (2016/17 to 2021/22) and the English Prescribing Datasets (2018 to 2022), we described age standardised prevalence, treatment and prescription item rates for hypertension and AF by geography and over time. Using an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis, we estimated the impact of the pandemic (from April 2020) on missed diagnoses and on the percentage change in medicines prescribed for these conditions. Finally, we described changes in treatment indicators against Public Health England 2029 cardiovascular risk targets. RESULTS: We observed 143,822 fewer (-143,822, 95%CI:-226,144, -61,500, p = 0.001) diagnoses of hypertension, 60,330 fewer (-60,330, 95%CI: -83,216, -37,444, p = 0.001) diagnoses of AF and 1.79% fewer (-1.79%, 95%CI: -2.37%, -1.22%), p < 0.0001) prescriptions for these conditions over the COVID-19 impact period. There was substantial variation across geography in England in terms of the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis, prescription, and treatment rates of hypertension and AF. 20% of Sub Integrated Care Boards account for approximately 62% of all missed diagnoses of hypertension. The percentage of individuals who had their hypertension controlled fell from 75.8% in 2019/20 to 64.1% in 2021/22 and the percentage of individuals with AF who were risk assessed fell from 97.2% to 90.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension and AF detection and management were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption varied considerably across diseases and geography. This highlights the utility of administrative and geographically granular datasets to inform targeted efforts to mitigate the indirect impacts of the pandemic through applied secondary prevention measures.

Association between weight loss and health care resource utilization in adults living with obesity: Evidence from a UK primary care database.

AIMS: We investigated the impact of intentional weight loss on health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs among people with obesity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective, observational cohort study used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database. Adults >18 years at index date [first recorded body mass index (BMI) of 30-50 kg/m2 between 2006 and 2015 with a further BMI record 4 years later] were assigned to an intentional weight loss cohort (-25% to -10% BMI change) or a stable weight cohort (-3% to +3%), based on their BMI change during a 4-year baseline period from index date. Evidence of intention to lose weight during the baseline period was required. Linked Hospital Episode Statistics datasets captured HCRU and costs over an 8-year follow-up period. Mixed effects models adjusted for demographics, total costs during baseline and baseline comorbidities were used. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar between cohorts with weight loss (n = 8676) and stable weight (n = 44 519). Over follow-up, the weight loss cohort experienced a significantly lower mean annual increase in total costs [2.1% (95% confidence interval: 1.3-2.8)] than the stable weight cohort [4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.0-4.6); p < .0001]. Weight loss was associated with a lower mean annual increase in multiple HCRU and cost components compared with maintaining a stable high weight. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that intentional weight loss of 10-25% is associated with lower HCRU and costs in the long term among individuals living with obesity, relative to stable weight.

Real-world costs of obesity-related complications over eight years: a US retrospective cohort study in 28,500 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Obesity-related complications (ORCs) are associated with high costs for healthcare systems. We assessed the relationship between comorbidity burden, represented by both number and type of 14 specific ORCs, and total healthcare costs over time in people with obesity in the USA. METHODS: Adults (≥ 18 years old) identified from linked electronic medical records and administrative claims databases, with a body mass index measurement of 30-< 70 kg/m2 between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2012 (earliest measurement: index date), and with continuous enrolment for ≥ 1 year pre index (baseline year) and ≥ 8 years post index, were included. Individuals were grouped by type and number of ORCs during the pre-index baseline year. The primary outcome was annual total adjusted direct per-person healthcare costs. RESULTS: Of 28,583 included individuals, 12,686 had no ORCs, 7242 had one ORC, 4180 had two ORCs and 4475 had three or more ORCs in the baseline year. Annual adjusted direct healthcare costs increased with the number of ORCs and over the 8-year follow-up. Outpatient costs were the greatest contributor to baseline annual direct costs, irrespective of the number of ORCs. For specific ORCs, costs generally increased gradually over the follow-up; the largest percentage increases from year 1 to year 8 were observed for chronic kidney disease (+ 78.8%) and type 2 diabetes (+ 47.8%). CONCLUSIONS: In a US real-world setting, the number of ORCs appears to be a cost driver in people with obesity, from the time of initial obesity classification and for at least the following 8 years.

An Insurance Value Modeling Approach That Captures the Wider Value of a Novel Antimicrobial to Health Systems, Patients, and the Population.

Background: Traditional health economic evaluations of antimicrobials currently underestimate their value to wider society. They can be supplemented by additional value elements including insurance value, which captures the value of an antimicrobial in preventing or mitigating impacts of adverse risk events. Despite being commonplace in other sectors, constituents of the impacts and approaches for estimating insurance value have not been investigated. Objectives: This study assessed the insurance value of a novel gram-negative antimicrobial from operational healthcare, wider population health, productivity, and informal care perspectives. Methods: A novel mixed-methods approach was used to model insurance value in the United Kingdom: (1) literature review and multidisciplinary expert workshops to identify risk events for 4 relevant scenarios: ward closures, unavoidable shortage of conventional antimicrobials, viral respiratory pandemics, and catastrophic antimicrobial resistance (AMR); (2) parameterizing mitigable costs and frequencies of risk events across perspectives and scenarios; (3) estimating insurance value through a Monte Carlo simulation model for extreme events and a dynamic disease transmission model. Results: The mean insurance value across all scenarios and perspectives over 10 years in the UK was £718 million, should AMR remain unchanged, where only £134 million related to operational healthcare costs. It would be 50%-70% higher if AMR steadily increased or if a more risk-averse view (1-in-10 year downside) of future events is taken. Discussion: The overall insurance value if AMR remains at current levels (a conservative projection), is over 5 times greater than insurance value from just the operational healthcare costs perspective, traditionally the sole perspective used in health budgeting. Insurance value was generally larger for nationwide or universal (catastrophic AMR, pandemic, and conventional antimicrobial shortages) rather than localized (ward closure) scenarios, across perspectives. Components of this insurance value match previously published estimates of operational costs and mortality impacts. Conclusions: Insurance value of novel antimicrobials can be systematically modeled and substantially augments their traditional health economic value in normal circumstances. These approaches are generalizable to similar health interventions and form a framework for health systems and governments to capture broader value in health technology assessments, improve healthcare access, and increase resilience by planning for adverse scenarios.

Obesity-related complications, healthcare resource use and weight loss strategies in six European countries: the RESOURCE survey.

BACKGROUND: Obesity-related complications (ORCs), such as type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease, contribute considerably to the clinical and economic impacts of obesity. To obtain a holistic overview of health and weight management attempts for people with obesity in Europe, we designed the cross-sectional RESOURCE survey to collect data on comorbidities, healthcare resource use (HCRU) and weight loss strategies from people with obesity in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. METHODS: Adults (≥18 years old) with self-reported body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 who reported interacting with primary or secondary healthcare services in the past 12 months, but had not been pregnant during this time, were recruited from an existing consumer research panel. All data were self-reported via an online survey (May-June 2021). Weight changes over the past year were calculated from participants' estimated weights. RESULTS: Of the 1850 participants in the survey, 26.3% reported that they had ≥3 ORCs from a set of 15 conditions of interest. The most frequently reported ORCs were hypertension (39.3% of participants), dyslipidaemia (22.8%) and T2D (17.5%). Participants in obesity class III (BMI 40 to <70 kg/m2) were more likely to report multiple ORCs than those in lower obesity classes. The presence of multiple ORCs was linked to various types of HCRU, including a significantly increased chance of reporting hospitalization in the past year. Most participants (78.6%) had attempted to lose weight in the past year, but of those who also reported estimated weight changes, 73.4% had not experienced clinically meaningful weight loss of ≥5%. CONCLUSIONS: ORCs are common in people with obesity, and are linked to increased HCRU. Together with the low reported success rate of weight loss attempts, this highlights an unmet need in Europe for enhanced weight management support for people with obesity.

Changes in life expectancy and house prices in London from 2002 to 2019: hyper-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of death registration and real estate data.

Background: London has outperformed smaller towns and rural areas in terms of life expectancy increase. Our aim was to investigate life expectancy change at very-small-area level, and its relationship with house prices and their change. Methods: We performed a hyper-resolution spatiotemporal analysis from 2002 to 2019 for 4835 London Lower-layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs). We used population and death counts in a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate age- and sex-specific death rates for each LSOA, converted to life expectancy at birth using life table methods. We used data from the Land Registry via the real estate website Rightmove (www.rightmove.co.uk), with information on property size, type and land tenure in a hierarchical model to estimate house prices at LSOA level. We used linear regressions to summarise how much life expectancy changed in relation to the combination of house prices in 2002 and their change from 2002 to 2019. We calculated the correlation between change in price and change in sociodemographic characteristics of the resident population of LSOAs and population turnover. Findings: In 134 (2.8%) of London's LSOAs for women and 32 (0.7%) for men, life expectancy may have declined from 2002 to 2019, with a posterior probability of a decline >80% in 41 (0.8%, women) and 14 (0.3%, men) LSOAs. The life expectancy increase in other LSOAs ranged from <2 years in 537 (11.1%) LSOAs for women and 214 (4.4%) for men to >10 years in 220 (4.6%) for women and 211 (4.4%) for men. The 2.5th-97.5th-percentile life expectancy difference across LSOAs increased from 11.1 (10.7-11.5) years in 2002 to 19.1 (18.4-19.7) years for women in 2019, and from 11.6 (11.3-12.0) years to 17.2 (16.7-17.8) years for men. In the 20% (men) and 30% (women) of LSOAs where house prices had been lowest in 2002, mainly in east and outer west London, life expectancy increased only in proportion to the rise in house prices. In contrast, in the 30% (men) and 60% (women) most expensive LSOAs in 2002, life expectancy increased solely independently of price change. Except for the 20% of LSOAs that had been most expensive in 2002, LSOAs with larger house price increases experienced larger growth in their population, especially among people of working ages (30-69 years), had a larger share of households who had not lived there in 2002, and improved their rankings in education, poverty and employment. Interpretation: Large gains in area life expectancy in London occurred either where house prices were already high, or in areas where house prices grew the most. In the latter group, the increases in life expectancy may be driven, in part, by changing population demographics. Funding: Wellcome Trust; UKRI (MRC); Imperial College London; National Institutes of Health Research.

The Societal Value of Vaccines: Expert-Based Conceptual Framework and Methods Using COVID-19 Vaccines as a Case Study.

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

Eight-year trends in obesity-related complications and health care cost progression in a US population with obesity: A retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: Obesity-related complications (ORCs) impose a substantial health burden on affected individuals, and economic costs to health care systems. We examined ORCs and the progression of direct health care costs over 8 years, stratified by obesity class. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Adults with obesity were identified in linked US medical records and administrative claims databases. The index date was the first body mass index measurement of 30 to <70 kg/m2 between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2012; a ≥8-year continuous enrolment post-index was required for inclusion. Diagnosis codes for five specific ORCs and total health care costs were recorded in each year of follow-up. Costs adjusted for clinical and demographic factors were also estimated. RESULTS: Of 28 583 eligible individuals, 17 892 had class I obesity, 6550 had class II obesity and 4141 had class III obesity. From baseline to year 8, the presence of type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis doubled in all obesity classes, with even larger increases for chronic kidney disease and heart failure. Observed and adjusted total health care costs generally increased from the baseline year to year 8. The difference in costs between obesity classes increased over time: at year 1, individuals with class III obesity had 26.8% higher costs than those in class I, but at year 8, this difference was 40.7%. Outpatient costs constituted half of the total observed costs across obesity classes. CONCLUSIONS: ORC rates and health care costs increase over time, and are greater in higher obesity classes. This could be mitigated by approaches that limit obesity progression.

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia and disability. METHODS: Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau-age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall-age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). FINDINGS: The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. INTERPRETATION: After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.

Is the healthy start scheme associated with increased food expenditure in low-income families with young children in the United Kingdom?

BACKGROUND: Healthy Start is a food assistance programme in the United Kingdom (UK) which aims to provide a nutritional safety-net and enable low-income families on welfare benefits to access a healthier diet through the provision of food vouchers. Healthy Start was launched in 2006 but remains under-evaluated. This study aims to determine whether participation in the Healthy Start scheme is associated with differences in food expenditure in a nationally representative sample of households in the UK. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of the Living Costs and Food Survey dataset (2010-2017). All households with a child (0-3 years) or pregnant woman were included in the analysis (n = 4869). Multivariable quantile regression compared the expenditure and quantity of fruit and vegetables (FV), infant formula and total food purchases. Four exposure groups were defined based on eligibility, participation and income (Healthy Start Participating, Eligible Non-participating, Nearly Eligible low-income and Ineligible high-income households). RESULTS: Of 876 eligible households, 54% participated in Healthy Start. No statistically significant differences were found in FV or total food purchases between participating and eligible non-participating households, but infant formula purchases were lower in Healthy Start participating households. Ineligible higher-income households had higher purchases of FV. CONCLUSION: This study did not find evidence of an association between Healthy Start participation and FV expenditure. Moreover, inequalities in FV purchasing persist in the UK. Higher participation and increased voucher value may help to improve programme performance and counteract the harmful effects of poverty on diet.

Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data.

BACKGROUND: High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England. METHODS: We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit research database using de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019, with information on age, sex, and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex, and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs, and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA. FINDINGS: In 2002-06 and 2006-10, all but a few (0-1%) MSOAs had a life expectancy increase for female and male sexes. In 2010-14, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5·2%) of 6791 MSOAs. By 2014-19, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1270 (18·7%) for women and 784 (11·5%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller in MSOAs where life expectancy had been lower in 2002 (mostly northern urban MSOAs), and larger in MSOAs where life expectancy had been higher in 2002 (mostly MSOAs in and around London). As a result of these trends, the gap between the first and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10·7 years (95% credible interval 10·4-10·9) in 2002 to reach 14·2 years (13·9-14·5) in 2019, and for men increased from 11·5 years (11·3-11·7) in 2002 to 13·6 years (13·4-13·9) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment in public health and health care throughout the entire country. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and National Institutes of Health Research.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs. CONCLUSION: Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Inequalities in incident and prevalent multimorbidity in England, 2004-19: a population-based, descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of multimorbidity and its socioeconomic gradient poses unique challenges to the provision and structure of health care. We aimed to describe inequalities and trends over time in multimorbidity prevalence, incidence, and case fatality among adults of all ages in England using primary care electronic health records. METHODS: We used a random sample of 991 243 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database registered at participating general practices within England between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). We used the following two outcome measures: basic multimorbidity, comprising two or more chronic conditions; and complex multimorbidity, comprising at least three chronic conditions affecting at least three body systems. We calculated crude, age-standardised, and age-sex-standardised annual incidence, prevalence, and case fatality rates, along with median age of onset for both multimorbidity types. We calculated absolute and relative inequalities for each outcome. FINDINGS: In 2004, 30·8% of our study population had basic multimorbidity and 15·1% had complex multimorbidity. This increased to 52·8% and 32·7%, respectively, in 2019. Although the overall incidence of basic multimorbidity remained stable over the 16-year study period, the incidence among people of working age and the incidence of complex multimorbidity increased gradually. Socioeconomic deprivation was associated with an increased incidence of both multimorbidity types in working-age adults. The median age at onset of complex multimorbidity was 7 years younger for the most deprived quintile of the IMD compared with the least deprived quintile. INTERPRETATION: The burden of multimorbidity in England has increased substantially over the past 16 years with persistent inequalities, which are worse in working-age adults and for complex multimorbidity. Prevention efforts to reduce the onset and slow the progression of multimorbidity are essential to reduce the increasing impact on patients and health systems alike. FUNDING: University of Liverpool and UK National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research.

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales. METHODS: We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. RESULTS: Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10-15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000-272,200), with 85,900 (71,500-101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900-125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700-237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300-90,800) and 93,300 (76,700-111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.