Hospital admission rates for distal forearm fractures: an epidemiological survey in patients referred to a large emergency department in Northern Italy.

UNLABELLED: In this survey, the proportion of patients with distal forearm fractures admitted to the Parma University Hospital during 2012 (13 %) was relatively low and generally lower than that reported in other studies. In our region, the main orthopedic approach remains conservative. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to define the ratio between hospitalized and non-hospitalized fragility fractures of the distal forearm in our province (Parma, Northern Italy). METHODS: All forearm fractures referred during 2012 to the emergency department of the Parma University Hospital (the main hospital in the province with a catchment area of approximately 345,000) were retrieved from the hospital database using both ICD-9-CM codes and text strings. The diagnosis of distal forearm fracture due to low-energy trauma and the need for hospitalization were individually confirmed by medical records and X-ray reports. The analysis was limited to subjects aged 40 years and over. RESULTS: In both sexes combined, 66 subjects out of 505 were hospitalized (13.1 %; confidence interval (CI) 95 % 10.4-16.3 %), 47 immediately (8.1 %) and 25 (5 %) after a few days. The percentage of cases hospitalized was 12 % in women (CI 95 % 9.2-15.6 %) and 17 % in men (CI 95 % 11.1-25 %; p = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of fragility distal forearm fractures hospitalized in our area is relatively low and generally lower than that reported in other studies.

Uses and misuses of statistics: the case of strontium ranelate and the number needed to treat.

In the last 15 years, several pharmacological agents for the prevention of fractures have been developed and commercialized. Most of them showed to be effective in reducing fracture risk. The enhanced availability of drugs to prevent fractures has generated a fierce competition among pharmaceutical companies to conquer a share of the potential market, often with claims of superiority of a drug over another without direct comparisons. The definitive way to compare different treatments would require randomized head to head trials. These trials are expensive, need large samples and are unlikely to be ever performed. Therefore, it has become a common practice to compare pharmacological agents through observational studies on administrative databases or by the indirect comparison of the results of individual randomised-controlled trials (RCT) and their meta-analyses. These studies may produce evidence of clinical value, complementary to that given by RCT. However, without a proper and complete analysis, they may result in a biased picture of effectiveness and be completely misleading. In this article, we critically disclose how such competition may produce biased and misleading picture of evidence, by reviewing the significance of the number needed to treat, absolute risk reduction and relative risk reduction in relation to vertebral fractures prevention with available drugs.

Assessment of the 10-year risk of fracture in Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®: a north Italian multicenter study.

The aim of the study was to estimate the absolute risk of fracture in a sample of postmenopausal women with the Italian version of FRAX®, using femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and 3 internationally validated clinical risk factors (CRFs) (history of fragility fracture, family history of hip fracture, current smoking). We retrospectively studied 9586 women (mean age 64.1 yr) examined in three osteoporosis centers from Northern Italy over two years (2001-2002). The risk of major osteoporotic (clinical spine, hip, forearm and humerus) and hip fractures was estimated using the online version of the FRAX algorithm adapted for Italy. The median 10-year risk was 7.5% for osteoporotic fracture and 1.7% for hip fracture. 25% of subjects had a 10-year risk ≥ 12.1% for osteoporotic fracture and ≥ 4.1% for hip fracture. The median 10-year risk of fracture increased with the number of prevalent CRFs. For major osteoporotic fractures risk rose from 6.3% to 10.9%, 21.4% and 40.9% with 1, 2 and 3 prevalent CRFs, respectively. For hip fractures the corresponding figures were: 1.3%, 2.7%, 7.0% and 21.9%, respectively. However, it must be emphasized that in 2 out of 3 women, none of the CRFs examined was present and the assessment of risk was limited to age and BMD. Our data provide the first description of the effect of the combination of BMD, age and CRFs on fracture risk stratification in a large sample of Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®. The results are a useful starting point to define criteria for the application of FRAX® in clinical practice in Italy.

Validation and further development of the WHO 10-year fracture risk assessment tool in Italian postmenopausal women: project rationale and description.

The threshold for pharmacological intervention for osteoporosis remains controversial. Tools predicting the future risk of new fractures are increasingly used to establish a convenient individual risk/benefit ratio for a long term treatment. FRAX® is likely to become the most widely used tool for assessing fracture risk also for the WHO endorsement. The inevitable limitations will not hamper its value. As for any tool like this a continuous process of validation and further development is highly warranted. The predictive and clinical value of FRAX® has to be tested in individual countries by exploring also the inclusion of additional specific relatively uncommon risk factors. The DeFRA project is intended to validate in a large cohort of postmenopausal women a new algorithm derived from FRAX®. Both, the coefficients of continuous variable and the gradients for clinical risk factors should not be considered as conclusive for the routine clinical use. The new tool will be offered for the routine clinical use only at the completion of the DeFRA project, requiring the prospective collection of at least 60.000 patient-years. Here we report the rational and the design of the project.