Cost-Utility Analysis of Non-Contrast Abbreviated Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Cirrhosis.

Background/Aims: Ultrasonography has a low sensitivity for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients. Non-contrast abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging (aMRI) demonstrated a comparable performance to that of magnetic resonance imaging without the risk of contrast media exposure and at a lower cost than that of full diagnostic MRI. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of non-contrast aMRI for HCC surveillance in cirrhotic patients, using ultrasonography with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as a reference. Methods: Cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov model in Thailand and the United States. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained in each strategy. Surveillance protocols were considered cost-effective based on a willingness-to-pay value of $4,665 (160,000 Thai Baht) in Thailand and $50,000 in the United States. Results: aMRI was cost-effective in both countries with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $3,667/QALY in Thailand and $37,062/QALY in the United States. Patient-level microsimulations showed consistent findings that aMRI was cost-effective in both countries. By probabilistic sensitivity analysis, aMRI was found to be more cost-effective than combined ultrasonography and AFP with a probability of 0.77 in Thailand and 0.98 in the United States. By sensitivity analyses, annual HCC incidence was revealed as the most influential factor affecting cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness of aMRI increased in settings with a higher HCC incidence. At a higher HCC incidence, aMRI would remain cost-effective at a higher aMRI-to-ultrasonography with AFP cost ratio. Conclusions: Compared to ultrasonography with AFP, non-contrast aMRI is a cost-effective strategy for HCC surveillance and may be useful for such surveillance in cirrhotic patients, especially in those with high HCC risks.

Mortality Increased Among Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis Before and Following Different Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted patient care and worsened the morbidity and mortality of some chronic diseases. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations and outcomes in patients with cirrhosis both before and during different time periods of the pandemic has not been evaluated. AIMS: Describe characteristics of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and evaluate inpatient mortality and 30-day readmission before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective single-center cohort study of all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis from 2018 to 2022. Time periods within the COVID-19 pandemic were defined using reference data from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control. Adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression were used to assess differences between periods. RESULTS: 33,926 unique hospitalizations were identified. Most patients were over age 60 years across all time periods of the pandemic. More Hispanic patients were hospitalized during COVID-19 than before COVID-19. Medicare and Medicaid are utilized less frequently during COVID-19 than before COVID-19. After controlling for age and gender, inpatient mortality was significantly higher during all COVID-19 periods except Omicron compared to before COVID-19. The odds of experiencing a 30-day readmission were 1.2 times higher in the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. CONCLUSION: Inpatient mortality among patients with cirrhosis has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to before COVID-19. Although COVID-19 infection may have had a small direct pathologic effect on the natural history of cirrhotic liver disease, it is more likely that other factors are impacting this population.

Prognostic Value of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Measurements on a Daily Basis in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether daily measurement of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score adds prognostic value to the initial MELD score in predicting mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: We included 830 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary care ICU from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2013, who had MELD scores on admission day 1 (MELD-D1). Daily MELD score during the first 7 days of ICU admission were retrospectively abstracted. The performances of MELD-D1 to MELD-D7 and changes in MELD score on consecutive days (Δ-MELD) in predicting 90-day mortality were determined using logistic regression. RESULTS: MELD-D1 was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P<.001), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72. MELD-D2 to MELD-D7 yielded comparable performance to MELD-D1 with an approximately 10% increase in risk of death per each incremental unit of MELD score (odds ratios, 1.09-1.11; P<.001; AUCs, 0.68-0.72). Δ-MELD-D2 to Δ-MELD-D7 were not independently associated with mortality (P=.69, P=.42, P=.81, P=.94, P=.83 and P=.28, respectively) and did not increase the predictive performance (AUCs) when combined with MELD-D2 to MELD-D7. CONCLUSION: Repeating MELD score assessment during the first 7 days after ICU admission does not improve the ability of the initial MELD score for predicting 90-day mortality among patients with cirrhosis. Our finding does not support the practice of routine daily measurement of the MELD score.