An empirical investigation of time-varying cost-effectiveness across the product life cycle.

Cost-effectiveness is traditionally treated as a static estimate driven by clinical trial efficacy and drug price at launch. Prior studies suggest that cost-effectiveness varies over the drug's lifetime. We examined the impact of "learning by doing," one of the least studied drivers of changes in cost-effectiveness across the product life cycle. We combined time-series trends in effectiveness over time by cancer regimen using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database. We estimated the time-varying effects of treatments in colorectal and pancreatic cancer over their life cycle, including FOLFOX (leucovorin, 5-fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin) and gemcitabine, on survival of patients. Mean prices over time by strength and dosage form were calculated using historical wholesale acquisition costs. We found consistent downward trends in the mortality hazard ratios, which suggest that effectiveness improves over time. In the case of first-line FOLFOX for colorectal cancer, the implied incremental cost-effectiveness ratio based on the observational data fell from $610,000 per life year gained in 2004 to $27,000 per life year gained in 2011. Cost-effectiveness estimated at launch is unlikely to be representative of cost-effectiveness over the drug's lifetime. In the drugs studied, the impact of time-varying clinical effectiveness dominated the impact of changing prices overtime.

Assessing Variation in the Cost of Palivizumab for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prevention in Preterm Infants.

BACKGROUND: The variability in cost of palivizumab treatment, indicated for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in high-risk infants, has not been robustly estimated in prior studies. This study aimed to determine the cost variations of palivizumab from a US payer perspective for otherwise healthy preterm infants born 29-35 weeks gestational age (wGA) using infant characteristics and applied dosing regimens. METHODS: Fenton Growth Charts were merged with World Health Organization Child Growth Standards to estimate preterm infant growth patterns. The merged growth chart was applied to infants who received palivizumab from a prospective, observational registry to determine future body weight using each infant's wGA and birth weight. Using quarter 3 (Q3) 2016-Q2 2017 vial cost, treatment costs at monthly dosing intervals were estimated using expected weights and averaged by age to derive expected mean 2016-2017 RSV seasonal costs per infant under various dosing scenarios. RESULTS: Given different dosing scenarios (two to five doses), birth month, and growth patterns for preterm infants 29-35 wGA, the estimated average 2016-2017 seasonal cost of palivizumab treatment ranged from $3221 to $12,568. Outpatient-only cost (excluding first dose at hospital discharge) ranged from $1733 to $11,862. The main drivers of costs were dosing regimen (74% of variance), dosing interacted with birth month (17%), and wGA (6%). CONCLUSION: The considerable variability in the average cost of palivizumab treatment for preterm infants is driven by choice of dosing regimen, wGA, and birth month. Therefore, when estimating the cost of palivizumab, it is important to consider both infant characteristics at each dose and potential dosing regimens.

Economic burden of multiple myeloma among patients in successive lines of therapy in the United States.

This study characterized the costs of multiple myeloma (MM) during first-line (1L), second-line (2L) and third-line (3L) treatment from the US payer perspective. Patients with ≥2 outpatient or ≥1 inpatient claims with a primary MM diagnosis and 12 months continuous enrollment post index were identified in a retrospective claims database between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2013. A cost per-patient per-month (PPPM) metric was used to calculate total all-cause and anti-MM pharmacy costs in 1L, 2L, and 3L treatment. Of 5704 patients included, 3626 initiated 1L treatment, 1797 initiated 2L and 817 initiated 3L. Average total all-cause PPPM costs were $22,527 in 1L, $35,266 in 2L and $47,417 in 3L. Anti-MM pharmacy costs represented 22%, 29% and 29% of total all-cause costs PPPM in 1L, 2L and 3L, respectively. Study results suggest that delaying 2L and/or 3L treatment initiation may result in lower treatment costs for patients with MM.

Short-term costs of preeclampsia to the United States health care system.

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality and adverse neonatal outcomes. Little is known about the extent of the health and cost burden of preeclampsia in the United States. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to quantify the annual epidemiological and health care cost burden of preeclampsia to both mothers and infants in the United States in 2012. STUDY DESIGN: We used epidemiological and econometric methods to assess the annual cost of preeclampsia in the United States using a combination of population-based and administrative data sets: the National Center for Health Statistics Vital Statistics on Births, the California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative Databases, the US Health Care Cost and Utilization Project database, and a commercial claims data set. RESULTS: Preeclampsia increased the probability of an adverse event from 4.6% to 10.1% for mothers and from 7.8% to 15.4% for infants while lowering gestational age by 1.7 weeks (P < .001). Overall, the total cost burden of preeclampsia during the first 12 months after birth was $1.03 billion for mothers and $1.15 billion for infants. The cost burden per infant is dependent on gestational age, ranging from $150,000 at 26 weeks gestational age to $1311 at 36 weeks gestational age. CONCLUSION: In 2012, the cost of preeclampsia within the first 12 months of delivery was $2.18 billion in the United States ($1.03 billion for mothers and $1.15 billion for infants), and was disproportionately borne by births of low gestational age.

The relationship between adherence and total spending among Medicare beneficiaries with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relationship between medication adherence, cost sharing measured as out-of-pocket spending, and total annual spending in Medicare beneficiaries with type 2 diabetes (T2D) to evaluate whether pharmacy cost-sharing programs have the potential to decrease adherence. These programs may unintentionally increase the risk of medical complications and may result in higher spending overall. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective study used 2006 to 2009 Medicare claims data. The sample included patients 65 years or older with T2D (at least 1 claim with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 250.x0 and 250.x2 and at least 1 antidiabetes drug claim). METHODS: Medication adherence was measured as proportion of days covered over the first 12 months of observation. Spending and adherence outcomes were defined in deciles. RESULTS: The sample included 12,305 patient-year observations. Pharmacy spending for patients in the most adherent (10th) decile was 59% higher than that for patients in the least adherent (1st) decile ($4839 vs $3046). Yet, patients in the 10th decile had 49% lower total ($12,531 vs $24,468) and 64% lower medical spending ($7692 vs $21,421) than patients in the 1st decile. Greater out-of-pocket spending was correlated with lower adherence and higher total and medical spending. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes a widespread variation in medication adherence, pharmacy cost sharing, and medical spending in a sample of Medicare beneficiaries with T2D. We found that lower adherence was correlated with higher cost sharing in the Medicare population, perhaps because of unobserved confounding factors. However, the existing literature on patients with employer-sponsored insurance suggests some of this correlation may be indicative of causal relationships.

Cost-effectiveness of sequenced treatment of rheumatoid arthritis with targeted immune modulators.

AIMS: To determine the cost-effectiveness of treatment sequences of biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs or Janus kinase/STAT pathway inhibitors (collectively referred to as bDMARDs) vs conventional DMARDs (cDMARDs) from the US societal perspective for treatment of patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with inadequate responses to cDMARDs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An individual patient simulation model was developed that assesses the impact of treatments on disease based on clinical trial data and real-world evidence. Treatment strategies included sequences starting with etanercept, adalimumab, certolizumab, or abatacept. Each of these treatment strategies was compared with cDMARDs. Incremental cost, incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each treatment sequence relative to cDMARDs. The cost-effectiveness of each strategy was determined using a US willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000/QALY. RESULTS: For the base-case scenario, bDMARD treatment sequences were associated with greater treatment benefit (i.e. more QALYs), lower lost productivity costs, and greater treatment-related costs than cDMARDs. The expected ICERs for bDMARD sequences ranged from ∼$126,000 to $140,000 per QALY gained, which is below the US-specific WTP. Alternative scenarios examining the effects of homogeneous patients, dose increases, increased costs of hospitalization for severely physically impaired patients, and a lower baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) Disability Index score resulted in similar ICERs. CONCLUSIONS: bDMARD treatment sequences are cost-effective from a US societal perspective.

Estimating the future burden of cardiovascular disease and the value of lipid and blood pressure control therapies in China.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle and dietary changes reflect an ongoing epidemiological transition in China, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) playing an ever-increasing role in China's disease burden. This study assessed the burden of CVD and the potential value of lipid and blood pressure control strategies in China. METHODS: We estimated the likely burden of CVD between 2016 and 2030 and how expanded use of lipid lowering and blood pressure control medication would impact that burden in the next 15 years. Accounting for the costs of drug use, we assessed the net social value of a policy that expands the utilization of lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies in China. RESULTS: Rises in prevalence of CVD risk and population aging would likely increase the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) by 75 million and strokes by 118 million, while the number of CVD deaths would rise by 39 million in total between 2016 and 2030. Universal treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia patients with lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies could avert between 10 and 20 million AMIs, between 8 and 30 million strokes, and between 3 and 10 million CVD deaths during the 2016-2030 period, producing a positive social value net of health care costs as high as $932 billion. CONCLUSIONS: In light of its aging population and epidemiological transition, China faces near-certain increases in CVD morbidity and mortality. Preventative measures such as effective lipid and blood pressure management may reduce CVD burden substantially and provide large social value. While the Chinese government is implementing more systematic approaches to health care delivery, prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

The value of surrogate endpoints for predicting real-world survival across five cancer types.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear how well different outcome measures in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) perform in predicting real-world cancer survival. We assess the ability of RCT overall survival (OS) and surrogate endpoints - progression-free survival (PFS) and time to progression (TTP) - to predict real-world OS across five cancers. METHODS: We identified 20 treatments and 31 indications for breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, and pancreatic cancer that had a phase III RCT reporting median OS and median PFS or TTP. Median real-world OS was determined using a Kaplan-Meier estimator applied to patients in the Surveillance and Epidemiology End Results (SEER)-Medicare database (1991-2010). Performance of RCT OS and PFS/TTP in predicting real-world OS was measured using t-tests, median absolute prediction error, and R(2) from linear regressions. RESULTS: Among 72,600 SEER-Medicare patients similar to RCT participants, median survival was 5.9 months for trial surrogates, 14.1 months for trial OS, and 13.4 months for real-world OS. For this sample, regression models using clinical trial OS and trial surrogates as independent variables predicted real-world OS significantly better than models using surrogates alone (P = 0.026). Among all real-world patients using sample treatments (N = 309,182), however, adding trial OS did not improve predictive power over predictions based on surrogates alone (P = 0.194). Results were qualitatively similar using median absolute prediction error and R(2) metrics. CONCLUSIONS: Among the five tumor types investigated, trial OS and surrogates were each independently valuable in predicting real-world OS outcomes for patients similar to trial participants. In broader real-world populations, however, trial OS added little incremental value over surrogates alone.

The Rising Burden of Preeclampsia in the United States Impacts Both Maternal and Child Health.

OBJECTIVE: Preeclampsia is one of the top six causes of maternal mortality in the United States (US) and is associated with considerable perinatal morbidity and mortality. Evidence suggests the US incidence of preeclampsia has increased dramatically over the past two decades. This study aims to compile, summarize, and critique the literature on the health and economic burden of preeclampsia and early-onset preeclampsia. STUDY DESIGN: We reviewed the literature for estimates of burden of preeclampsia and early-onset preeclampsia to both mother and child, summarized the evidence on economic and social burden, and highlighted current gaps in the literature. RESULTS: No recent studies comprehensively assess the costs and health consequences of preeclampsia or early-onset preeclampsia for both mother and child. Where it exists, the literature suggests preeclampsia and early-onset preeclampsia cause numerous adverse health consequences, but these conditions currently lack effective treatment. The need for preterm delivery from early-onset preeclampsia suggests its costs are substantial: very (28-31 weeks) and extremely (<28 weeks) preterm birth cost approximately 40 and 100 times a term pregnancy, respectively. CONCLUSION: Given the severity of outcomes from preeclampsia, further research on its health and economic consequences is essential to inform policy and resource allocation decisions in health care.

The Impact of State AIDS Drug Assistance Policies on Clinical and Economic Outcomes of People With HIV.

We investigated the effect of changes to state AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAP) policies, which govern access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), on clinical and economic outcomes among low-income people living with HIV/AIDS. Retrospective analyses of ART access were conducted on state ADAP policies, using data from ADAP Monitoring Reports and Kaiser Family Foundation from 2006 to 2010. We found stricter eligibility requirements reduce the number of HIV-positive individuals with ART access through ADAP, and decreased ART use increases mortality by 2.67 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per beneficiary. If the ADAP income eligibility cutoff were decreased by 50 percentage points in each state, 4,626 individuals would lose ART access nationwide. Based on a $22,143 cost/QALY, this policy would save $274 million in health care expenditures (2012 dollars), but result in 12,352 QALYs lost, valued at $1.2 billion. Therefore, states should exercise caution in restricting programs that increase ART access for low-income people living with HIV/AIDS.

HIV care providers emphasize the importance of the Ryan White Program for access to and quality of care.

With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) under way, some policy makers have questioned the continued relevance of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program as a safety net for people living with HIV/AIDS. We surveyed HIV care providers to understand the role of the Ryan White Program and to identify concerns regarding the ACA implementation. We also addressed whether the program is still relevant after ACA implementation and, if so, what elements should be retained. We found that providers consider the Ryan White Program to be critical in facilitating high-quality care for people living with HIV/AIDS. Most of the providers highlighted the program's support for providing medical and nonmedical case management as especially valuable and important to the entire continuum of care and for all patient subpopulations. Whether care is supplied by the Ryan White Program, Medicaid, or other means, our findings suggest that case management services will remain critical in treating HIV/AIDS as the health care landscape continues to evolve.

Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research.

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model--a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans--we compared optimistic "disease specific" scenarios with a hypothetical "delayed aging" scenario in terms of the scenarios' impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060--mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.