How different are accuracies of clinicians' prediction of survival by assessment methods?

BACKGROUND: No standardized method has been established for evaluating the accuracy of a clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS). Till now, no study has compared the accuracy of CPS according to the evaluation methods using the same dataset. We aimed to examine the accuracy of CPS by different statistical approaches in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study. Newly admitted patients with advanced cancer were enrolled in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment. The patients were classified into groups of days (≤7 days) and weeks (≤30 days) based on CPS and actual survival (AS). We evaluated the accuracy of CPS by the distribution, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs), and an estimate ±33% of AS. RESULTS: A total of 2,571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. As for the "days" category, the distribution of AS is larger than that of CPS, however, the results are reversed in the "weeks" category. The AUROCs showed over 80% discrimination for both the "days" and "weeks" categories. Accurate CPS within ±33% of AS was approximately 30% in both "days" and "weeks" categories. CONCLUSIONS: We showed a discrepancy of approximately 30-80% in the accuracy of CPS among three different analysis methods: distribution, AUROC, and AS comparison. Considering the low accuracy of AS comparisons, clinicians should provide a wide range of survival time. CPS was able to effectively discriminate and may be useful for risk stratification.

Pretravel preparation and factors associated with willingness to seek pretravel consultation among Taiwanese travelers.

BACKGROUND: Although globalization promotes economic development, cross-border infectious disease transmission is still a serious threat to health. Taiwan is geographically close to Southeast and South Asia, but the needs and expectations of Taiwanese travelers with regard to travel medicine are still largely unknown. This study aimed to clarify the pretravel preparations, needs, willingness to seek pretravel consultation, and factors associated with willingness, in order to provide valuable information for improvement of healthcare service. METHODS: Data were collected with anonymous structured questionnaires distributed to 477 visitors who tried to get travel health information from New Southbound Health Center between June and November 2019. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was applied to identify factors associated with the visitors' willingness to seek pretravel consultation. RESULTS: A total of 304 questionnaires (64%) were collected. Eighty-three percent of the respondents were willing to seek pretravel consultation. A higher level of education (odds ratio 3.6 [95% CI 1.58-8.22]), having a plan to obtain travel medical insurance (2.5 [1.18-5.28]), concern with gastrointestinal diseases (2.0 [1.04-3.94]), concern with mosquito-borne diseases (2.0 [2.07-3.95]), and concern with noncommunicable diseases (2.2 [1.02-4.96]) were independent factors associated with willingness to seek pretravel consultation.: CONCLUSIONS: We found that most of the travelers were willing to seek pretravel consultation. Our study highlighted the need to enhance awareness about travel-related illness among these travelers. Strategies should be tailored according to these findings to help prevent epidemics and improve healthcare service in the future.