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Introduction: Pancreatic cancer (PC) surgery has been associated with improved outcomes and value when performed at high-volume centers (HVC; ≥20 surgeries annually) compared to low-volume centers (LVC). Some have used these differences to suggest that regionalization of PC surgery would optimize patient outcomes and expenditures. Methods: A Markov model was created to evaluate 30-day mortality, 30-day complications, and 30-day costs. The differences in these outcome measures between the current and future states were measured to assess the population-level benefits of regionalization. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of variations of input variables in the model. Results: Among 5958 new cases of pancreatic cancer in California in 2021, a total of 2443 cases (41 %) would be resectable; among patients with resectable PC, a total of 977 (40 %) patients would undergo surgery. In aggregate, HVC and LVC 30-day postoperative complications occurred in 364 patients, 30-day mortality in 35 patients, and healthcare costs expended managing complications were $6,120,660. In the predictive model of complete regionalization to only HVC in California, an estimated 29 fewer complications, 17 fewer deaths, and a cost savings of $487,635 per year would occur. Conclusions and relevance: Pancreatic cancer (PC) surgery has been associated with improved outcomes and value when performed at high-volume centers (HVC; ≥20 surgeries annually) compared to low-volume centers (LVC). Complete regionalization of pancreatic cancer surgery predicted benefits in mortality, complications and cost, though implementing this strategy at a population-level may require investment of resources and redesigning care delivery models.
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BACKGROUND: Volume of operative cases may be an important factor associated with improved survival for early-stage pancreatic cancer. Most high-volume pancreatic centers are also academic institutions, which have been associated with additional healthcare costs. We hypothesized that at high-volume centers, the value of the extra survival outweighs the extra cost. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study used data from the California Cancer Registry linked to the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development database from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2012. Stage I-II pancreatic cancer patients who underwent resection were included. Multivariable analyses estimated overall survival and 30-day costs at low- vs high-volume pancreatic surgery centers. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net benefit (INB) were estimated, and statistical uncertainty was characterized using net benefit regression. RESULTS: Of 2,786 patients, 46.5% were treated at high-volume centers and 53.5% at low-volume centers. There was a 0.45-year (5.4 months) survival benefit (95% CI 0.21-0.69) and a $7,884 extra cost associated with receiving surgery at high-volume centers (95% CI $4,074-$11,694). The ICER was $17,529 for an additional year of survival (95% CI $7,997-$40,616). For decision-makers willing to pay more than $20,000 for an additional year of life, high-volume centers appear cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Although healthcare costs were greater at high-volume centers, patients undergoing pancreatic surgery at high-volume centers experienced a survival benefit (5.4 months). The extra cost of $17,529 per additional year is quite modest for improved survival and is economically attractive by many oncology standards.
