Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial to Evaluate a Permissive Blood Pressure Target Versus Usual Care in Critically Ill Children with Hypotension (PRESSURE).

OBJECTIVES: Management of hypotension is a fundamental part of pediatric critical care, with cardiovascular support in the form of fluids or vasoactive drugs offered to every hypotensive child. However, optimal blood pressure (BP) targets are unknown. The PRotocolised Evaluation of PermiSSive BP Targets Versus Usual CaRE (PRESSURE) trial aims to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a permissive mean arterial pressure (MAP) target of greater than a fifth centile for age compared with usual care. DESIGN: Pragmatic, open, multicenter, parallel-group randomized control trial (RCT) with integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Eighteen PICUs across the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Infants and children older than 37 weeks corrected gestational age to 16 years accepted to a participating PICU, on mechanical ventilation and receiving vasoactive drugs for hypotension. INTERVENTIONS: Adjustment of hemodynamic support to achieve a permissive MAP target greater than fifth centile for age during invasive mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Randomization is 1:1 to a permissive MAP target or usual care, stratified by site and age group. Due to the emergency nature of the treatment, approaching patients for written informed consent will be deferred until after randomization. The primary clinical outcome is a composite of death and days of ventilatory support at 30 days. Baseline demographics and clinical status will be recorded as well as daily measures of BP and organ support, and discharge outcomes. This RCT received Health Research Authority approval (reference 289545), and a favorable ethical opinion from the East of England-Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee on May 10, 2021 (reference number 21/EE/0084). The trial is registered and has an International Standard RCT Number (reference 20609635). CONCLUSIONS: Trial findings will be disseminated in U.K. national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals.

Conservative versus liberal oxygenation targets in critically ill children (Oxy-PICU): a UK multicentre, open, parallel-group, randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The optimal target for systemic oxygenation in critically ill children is unknown. Liberal oxygenation is widely practiced, but has been associated with harm in paediatric patients. We aimed to evaluate whether conservative oxygenation would reduce duration of organ support or incidence of death compared to standard care. METHODS: Oxy-PICU was a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in 15 UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Children admitted as an emergency, who were older than 38 weeks corrected gestational age and younger than 16 years receiving invasive ventilation and supplemental oxygen were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio via a concealed, central, web-based randomisation system to conservative peripheral oxygen saturations ([SpO2] 88-92%) or liberal (SpO2 >94%) targets. The primary outcome was the duration of organ support at 30 days following random allocation, a rank-based endpoint with death either on or before day 30 as the worst outcome (a score equating to 31 days of organ support), with survivors assigned a score between 1 and 30 depending on the number of calendar days of organ support received. The primary effect estimate was the probabilistic index, a value greater than 0·5 indicating more than 50% probability that conservative oxygenation is superior to liberal oxygenation for a randomly selected patient. All participants in whom consent was available were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The completed study was registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN92103439). FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2020, and May 15, 2022, 2040 children were randomly allocated to conservative or liberal oxygenation groups. Consent was available for 1872 (92%) of 2040 children. The conservative oxygenation group comprised 939 children (528 [57%] of 927 were female and 399 [43%] of 927 were male) and the liberal oxygenation group included 933 children (511 [56%] of 920 were female and 409 [45%] of 920 were male). Duration of organ support or death in the first 30 days was significantly lower in the conservative oxygenation group (probabilistic index 0·53, 95% CI 0·50-0·55; p=0·04 Wilcoxon rank-sum test, adjusted odds ratio 0·84 [95% CI 0·72-0·99]). Prespecified adverse events were reported in 24 (3%) of 939 patients in the conservative oxygenation group and 36 (4%) of 933 patients in the liberal oxygenation group. INTERPRETATION: Among invasively ventilated children who were admitted as an emergency to a PICU receiving supplemental oxygen, a conservative oxygenation target resulted in a small, but significant, greater probability of a better outcome in terms of duration of organ support at 30 days or death when compared with a liberal oxygenation target. Widespread adoption of a conservative oxygenation saturation target (SpO2 88-92%) could help improve outcomes and reduce costs for the sickest children admitted to PICUs. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Protocol for a Randomized Multiple Center Trial of Conservative Versus Liberal Oxygenation Targets in Critically Ill Children (Oxy-PICU): Oxygen in Pediatric Intensive Care.

OBJECTIVES: Oxygen administration is a fundamental part of pediatric critical care, with supplemental oxygen offered to nearly every acutely unwell child. However, optimal targets for systemic oxygenation are unknown. Oxy-PICU aims to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a conservative peripheral oxygen saturation (Sp o2 ) target of 88-92% compared with a liberal target of more than 94%. DESIGN: Pragmatic, open, multiple-center, parallel group randomized control trial with integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Fifteen PICUs across England, Wales, and Scotland. PATIENTS: Infants and children age more than 38 week-corrected gestational age to 16 years who are accepted to a participating PICU as an unplanned admission and receiving invasive mechanical ventilation with supplemental oxygen for abnormal gas exchange. INTERVENTION: Adjustment of ventilation and inspired oxygen settings to achieve an Sp o2 target of 88-92% during invasive mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Randomization is 1:1 to a liberal Sp o2 target of more than 94% or a conservative Sp o2 target of 88-92% (inclusive), using minimization with a random component. Minimization will be performed on: age, site, primary reason for admission, and severity of abnormality of gas exchange. Due to the emergency nature of the treatment, approaching patients for written informed consent will be deferred to after randomization. The primary clinical outcome is a composite of death and days of organ support at 30 days. Baseline demographics and clinical status will be recorded as well as daily measures of oxygenation and organ support, and discharge outcomes. This trial received Health Research Authority approval on December 23, 2019 (reference: 272768), including a favorable ethical opinion from the East of England-Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee (reference number: 19/EE/0362). Trial findings will be disseminated in national and international conferences and peer-reviewed journals.

Co-ordinated multidisciplinary intervention to reduce time to successful extubation for children on mechanical ventilation: the SANDWICH cluster stepped-wedge RCT.

BACKGROUND: Daily assessment of patient readiness for liberation from invasive mechanical ventilation can reduce the duration of ventilation. However, there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of this in a paediatric population. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of a ventilation liberation intervention in critically ill children who are anticipated to have a prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation (primary objective) and in all children (secondary objective). DESIGN: A pragmatic, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial with economic and process evaluations. SETTING: Paediatric intensive care units in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Invasively mechanically ventilated children (aged < 16 years). INTERVENTIONS: The intervention incorporated co-ordinated multidisciplinary care, patient-relevant sedation plans linked to sedation assessment, assessment of ventilation parameters with a higher than usual trigger for undertaking an extubation readiness test and a spontaneous breathing trial on low levels of respiratory support to test extubation readiness. The comparator was usual care. Hospital sites were randomised sequentially to transition from control to intervention and were non-blinded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation until the first successful extubation. The secondary outcome measures were successful extubation, unplanned extubation and reintubation, post-extubation use of non-invasive ventilation, tracheostomy, post-extubation stridor, adverse events, length of intensive care and hospital stay, mortality and cost per respiratory complication avoided at 28 days. RESULTS: The trial included 10,495 patient admissions from 18 paediatric intensive care units from 5 February 2018 to 14 October 2019. In children with anticipated prolonged ventilation (n = 8843 admissions: control, n = 4155; intervention, n = 4688), the intervention resulted in a significantly shorter time to successful extubation [cluster and time-adjusted median difference -6.1 hours (interquartile range -8.2 to -5.3 hours); adjusted hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.20; p = 0.02] and a higher incidence of successful extubation (adjusted relative risk 1.01, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02; p = 0.03) and unplanned extubation (adjusted relative risk 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.51; p = 0.03), but not reintubation (adjusted relative risk 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.36; p = 0.38). In the intervention period, the use of post-extubation non-invasive ventilation was significantly higher (adjusted relative risk 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.49; p = 0.04), with no evidence of a difference in intensive care length of stay or other harms, but hospital length of stay was longer (adjusted hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.97; p = 0.01). Findings for all children were broadly similar. The control period was associated with lower, but not statistically significantly lower, total costs (cost difference, mean £929.05, 95% confidence interval -£516.54 to £2374.64) and significantly fewer respiratory complications avoided (mean difference -0.10, 95% confidence interval -0.16 to -0.03). LIMITATIONS: The unblinded intervention assignment may have resulted in performance or detection bias. It was not possible to determine which components were primarily responsible for the observed effect. Treatment effect in a more homogeneous group remains to be determined. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention resulted in a statistically significant small reduction in time to first successful extubation; thus, the clinical importance of the effect size is uncertain. FUTURE WORK: Future work should explore intervention sustainability and effects of the intervention in other paediatric populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN16998143. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Mechanical ventilation is a life-saving therapy, but may involve related risks because of the breathing tube in the mouth and throat, the sedative drugs required to reduce anxiety and remaining confined to bed. Therefore, getting off the ventilator (called weaning) is an important patient outcome. Previous studies have shown that an organised approach involving nurses, doctors and physiotherapists reduces the time that patients spend on the ventilator. Our study involved more than 10,000 patients admitted to 18 children's intensive care units. We tested a co-ordinated staff approach for managing a child's sedation and ventilator needs against usual care, which was mainly consultant led and did not involve bedside nurses. We wanted to find out if this approach improved the outcomes for children and did not cause additional harm. We first collected information in the intensive care units when children were weaned from the ventilator using usual care. Following staff training in the new approach, we compared children's outcomes between the two approaches. Compared with usual care, the new approach reduced the time that children spent on the ventilator by between 5 and 9 hours, and increased children's chances of having their breathing tube removed successfully. Some children pulled out their breathing tubes themselves before it was medically planned to do so. This happened more with the new approach, but the chance of needing the breathing tube put back in was not different from usual care. With the new approach, more children needed to use a mask ventilator than those receiving usual care, although the length of time that this was required was not different from usual care. The intensive care length of stay was the same for children receiving the new approach and usual care. However, with the new approach, children stayed in hospital 1 day longer, which resulted in higher costs (£715 per child); thus, the clinical relevance is uncertain.

Multicentre randomised controlled trial: protocol for Plasma-Lyte Usage and Assessment of Kidney Transplant Outcomes in Children (PLUTO).

INTRODUCTION: Acute electrolyte and acid-base imbalance is experienced by many children following kidney transplantation. When severe, this can lead to complications including seizures, cerebral oedema and death. Relatively large volumes of intravenous fluid are administered to children perioperatively in order to establish perfusion to the donor kidney, the majority of which are from living and deceased adult donors. Hypotonic intravenous fluid is commonly used in the post-transplant period due to clinicians' concerns about the sodium, chloride and potassium content of isotonic alternatives when administered in large volumes.Plasma-Lyte 148 is an isotonic, balanced intravenous fluid that contains sodium, chloride, potassium and magnesium with concentrations equivalent to those of plasma. There is a physiological basis to expect that Plasma-Lyte 148 will reduce the incidence of clinically significant electrolyte and acid-base abnormalities in children following kidney transplantation compared with current practice.The aim of the Plasma-Lyte Usage and Assessment of Kidney Transplant Outcomes in Children (PLUTO) trial was to determine whether the incidence of clinically significantly abnormal plasma electrolyte levels in paediatric kidney transplant recipients will be different with the use of Plasma-Lyte 148 compared with intravenous fluid currently administered. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PLUTO is a pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial comparing Plasma-Lyte 148 to current care in paediatric kidney transplant recipients, conducted in nine UK paediatric kidney transplant centres.A total of 144 children receiving kidney transplants will be randomised to receive either Plasma-Lyte 148 (the intervention) intraoperatively and postoperatively, or current fluid. Apart from intravenous fluid composition, all participants will receive standard clinical transplant care.The primary outcome measure is acute hyponatraemia in the first 72 hours post-transplant, defined as laboratory plasma sodium concentration of <135 mmol/L. Secondary outcomes include symptoms of acute hyponatraemia, other electrolyte and acid-base imbalances and transplant kidney function.The primary outcome will be analysed using a logistic regression model adjusting for donor type (living vs deceased donor), patient weight (<20 kg vs ≥20 kg pretransplant) and transplant centre as a random effect. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial received Health Research Authority approval on 20 January 2020. Findings will be presented to academic groups via national and international conferences and peer-reviewed journals. The patient and public involvement group will play an important part in disseminating the study findings to the public domain. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: 2019-003025-22 and 16586164.

First-line support for assistance in breathing in children: statistical and health economic analysis plan for the FIRST-ABC trial.

BACKGROUND: The FIRST-ABC trial comprises of two pragmatic, multicentre, parallel groups, non-inferiority randomised clinical trials designed to evaluate the clinical non-inferiority of first-line use of high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) to continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in critically ill children who require non-invasive respiratory support (NRS). OBJECTIVES: To describe the pre-specified statistical and health economic analysis for the FIRST-ABC trial before completion of patient recruitment and data collection. METHODS: The statistical analysis plan was designed by the chief investigators and statisticians. We define the primary and secondary outcomes, summarise methods for data collection and safety monitoring, and present a detailed description of the planned statistical and health economic analysis. RESULTS: The primary clinical outcome is time to liberation from respiratory support. The primary effect estimate will be the adjusted hazard ratio, reported with a 95% confidence interval. As a sensitivity analysis, the primary analysis will be repeated using time to start weaning of NRS. Subgroup analyses will be performed to test for interactions between the effect of allocated treatment group and pre-specified baseline covariates. The health economic analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle and report the mean (95% confidence interval) incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness up to 6 months. All analyses will be performed separately for each of the two trials, and any results will not be combined. CONCLUSION: The FIRST-ABC trial will assess the non-inferiority of HFNC compared to CPAP in two parallel trials with shared infrastructure (step-up RCT and step-down RCT). We have developed a pre-specified statistical and health economics analysis plan for the FIRST-ABC study before trial completion to minimise analytical bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN60048867 . Registered on 19 June 2019.

Sedation AND Weaning In Children (SANDWICH): protocol for a cluster randomised stepped wedge trial.

INTRODUCTION: Weaning from ventilation is a complex process involving several stages that include recognition of patient readiness to begin the weaning process, steps to reduce ventilation while optimising sedation in order not to induce distress and removing the endotracheal tube. Delay at any stage can prolong the duration of mechanical ventilation. We developed a multicomponent intervention targeted at helping clinicians to safely expedite this process and minimise the harms associated with unnecessary mechanical ventilation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a 20-month cluster randomised stepped wedge clinical and cost-effectiveness trial with an internal pilot and a process evaluation. It is being conducted in 18 paediatric intensive care units in the UK to evaluate a protocol-based intervention for reducing the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation. Following an initial 8-week baseline data collection period in all sites, one site will be randomly chosen to transition to the intervention every 4 weeks and will start an 8-week training period after which it will continue the intervention for the remaining duration of the study. We aim to recruit approximately 10 000 patients. The primary analysis will compare data from before the training (control) with that from after the training (intervention) in each site. Full details of the analyses will be in the statistical analysis plan. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol was reviewed and approved by NRES Committee East Midlands-Nottingham 1 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 17/EM/0301). All sites started patient recruitment on 5 February 2018 before randomisation in April 2018. Results will be disseminated in 2020. The results will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed medical journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16998143.

Different temperature thresholds for antipyretic intervention in critically ill children with fever due to infection: the FEVER feasibility RCT.

BACKGROUND: Fever accelerates host immune system control of pathogens but at a high metabolic cost. The optimal approach to fever management and the optimal temperature thresholds used for treatment in critically ill children are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different temperature thresholds for antipyretic management. DESIGN: A mixed-methods feasibility study comprising three linked studies - (1) a qualitative study exploring parent and clinician views, (2) an observational study of the epidemiology of fever in children with infection in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) and (3) a pilot RCT with an integrated-perspectives study. SETTING: Participants were recruited from (1) four hospitals in England via social media (for the FEVER qualitative study), (2) 22 PICUs in the UK (for the FEVER observational study) and (3) four PICUs in England (for the FEVER pilot RCT). PARTICIPANTS: (1) Parents of children with relevant experience were recruited to the FEVER qualitative study, (2) patients who were unplanned admissions to PICUs were recruited to the FEVER observational study and (3) children admitted with infection requiring mechanical ventilation were recruited to the FEVER pilot RCT. Parents of children and clinicians involved in the pilot RCT. INTERVENTIONS: The FEVER qualitative study and the FEVER observational study had no interventions. In the FEVER pilot RCT, children were randomly allocated (1 : 1) using research without prior consent (RWPC) to permissive (39.5 °C) or restrictive (37.5 °C) temperature thresholds for antipyretics during their PICU stay while mechanically ventilated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) The acceptability of FEVER, RWPC and potential outcomes (in the FEVER qualitative study), (2) the size of the potentially eligible population and the temperature thresholds used (in the FEVER observational study) and (3) recruitment and retention rates, protocol adherence and separation between groups and distribution of potential outcomes (in the FEVER pilot RCT). RESULTS: In the FEVER qualitative study, 25 parents were interviewed and 56 clinicians took part in focus groups. Both the parents and the clinicians found the study acceptable. Clinicians raised concerns regarding temperature thresholds and not using paracetamol for pain/discomfort. In the FEVER observational study, 1853 children with unplanned admissions and infection were admitted to 22 PICUs between March and August 2017. The recruitment rate was 10.9 per site per month. The majority of critically ill children with a maximum temperature of > 37.5 °C received antipyretics. In the FEVER pilot RCT, 100 eligible patients were randomised between September and December 2017 at a recruitment rate of 11.1 per site per month. Consent was provided for 49 out of 51 participants in the restrictive temperature group, but only for 38 out of 49 participants in the permissive temperature group. A separation of 0.5 °C (95% confidence interval 0.2 °C to 0.8 °C) between groups was achieved. A high completeness of outcome measures was achieved. Sixty parents of 57 children took part in interviews and/or completed questionnaires and 98 clinicians took part in focus groups or completed a survey. Parents and clinicians found the pilot RCT and RWPC acceptable. Concerns about children being in pain/discomfort were cited as reasons for withdrawal and non-consent by parents and non-adherence to the protocol by clinicians. LIMITATIONS: Different recruitment periods for observational and pilot studies may not fully reflect the population that is eligible for a definitive RCT. CONCLUSIONS: The results identified barriers to delivering the definitive FEVER RCT, including acceptability of the permissive temperature threshold. The findings also provided insight into how these barriers may be overcome, such as by limiting the patient inclusion criteria to invasive ventilation only and by improved site training. A definitive FEVER RCT using a modified protocol should be conducted, but further work is required to agree important outcome measures for clinical trials among critically ill children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The FEVER observational study is registered as NCT03028818 and the FEVER pilot RCT is registered as Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16022198. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Restricted fluid bolus versus current practice in children with septic shock: the FiSh feasibility study and pilot RCT.

BACKGROUND: There has been no randomised controlled trial (RCT) of fluid bolus therapy in paediatric sepsis in the developed world despite evidence that excess fluid may be associated with harm. OBJECTIVES: To determine the feasibility of the Fluids in Shock (FiSh) trial - a RCT comparing restricted fluid bolus (10 ml/kg) with current practice (20 ml/kg) in children with septic shock in the UK. DESIGN: (1) Qualitative feasibility study exploring parents' views about the pilot RCT. (2) Pilot RCT over a 9-month period, including integrated parental and staff perspectives study. SETTING: (1) Recruitment took place across four NHS hospitals in England and on social media. (2) Recruitment took place across 13 NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Parents of children admitted to a UK hospital with presumed septic shock in the previous 3 years. (2) Children presenting to an emergency department with clinical suspicion of infection and shock after 20 ml/kg of fluid. Exclusion criteria were receipt of > 20 ml/kg of fluid, conditions requiring fluid restriction and the patient not for full active treatment (i.e. palliative care plan in place). Site staff and parents of children in the pilot were recruited to the perspectives study. INTERVENTIONS: (1) None. (2) Children were randomly allocated (1 : 1) to 10- or 20-ml/kg fluid boluses every 15 minutes for 4 hours if in shock. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Acceptability of FiSh trial, proposed consent model and potential outcome measures. (2) Outcomes were based on progression criteria, including recruitment and retention rates, protocol adherence and separation between the groups, and collection and distribution of potential outcome measures. RESULTS: (1) Twenty-one parents were interviewed. All would have consented for the pilot study. (2) Seventy-five children were randomised, 40 to the 10-ml/kg fluid bolus group and 35 to the 20-ml/kg fluid bolus group. Two children were withdrawn. Although the anticipated recruitment rate was achieved, there was variability across the sites. Fifty-nine per cent of children in the 10-ml/kg fluid bolus group and 74% in the 20-ml/kg fluid bolus group required only a single trial bolus before shock resolved. The volume of fluid (in ml/kg) was 35% lower in the first hour and 44% lower over the 4-hour period in the 10-ml/kg fluid bolus group. Fluid boluses were delivered per protocol (volume and timing) for 79% of participants in the 10-ml/kg fluid bolus group and for 55% in the 20-ml/kg fluid bolus group, mainly as a result of delivery not being completed within 15 minutes. There were no deaths. Length of hospital stay, paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) transfers, and days alive and PICU free did not differ significantly between the groups. Two adverse events were reported in each group. A questionnaire was completed by 45 parents, 20 families and seven staff were interviewed and 20 staff participated in focus groups. Although a minority of site staff lacked equipoise in favour of more restricted boluses, all supported the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Even though a successful feasibility and pilot RCT were conducted, participants were not as unwell as expected. A larger trial is not feasible in its current design in the UK. FUTURE WORK: Further observational work is required to determine the epidemiology of severe childhood infection in the UK in the postvaccine era. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15244462. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 51. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A Novel Method to Identify the Start and End of the Winter Surge in Demand for Pediatric Intensive Care in Real Time.

OBJECTIVE: Implementation of winter surge management in intensive care is hampered by the annual variability in the start and duration of the winter surge. We aimed to develop a real-time monitoring system that could identify the start promptly and accurately predict the end of the winter surge in a pediatric intensive care setting. DESIGN: We adapted a method from the stock market called "Bollinger bands" to compare current levels of demand for pediatric intensive care services to thresholds based on medium-term average demand. Algorithms to identify the start and end of the surge were developed using Bollinger bands and pragmatic considerations. The method was applied to a specific pediatric intensive care service: the North Thames Children's Acute Transport Service using eight winters of data (2005-2012) to tune the algorithms and one winter to test the final method (2013/2014). SETTING: A regional specialized pediatric retrieval service based in London, United Kingdom. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The optimal Bollinger band thresholds were 1.2 and 1 SDs above and below a 41-day moving average of demand, respectively. A simple linear model was found to predict the end of the surge and overall surge demand volume as soon as the start had been identified. Applying the method to the validation winter of 2013/2014 showed excellent performance, with the surge identified from November 18, 2013, to January 4, 2014. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and tested a novel method to identify the start and predict the end of the winter surge in emergency demand for pediatric intensive care.

Weight-for-age distribution and case-mix adjusted outcomes of 14,307 paediatric intensive care admissions.

AIMS: To determine whether the paediatric intensive care (PIC) population weight distribution differs from the UK reference population and whether weight-for-age at admission is an independent risk factor for mortality. METHODS: Admission weight-for-age standard deviation scores (SDS) were calculated for all PIC admissions (March 2003-December 2011) to Great Ormond Street Hospital: this is the number of standard deviations (SD) between a child's weight and the UK mean weight-for-age. Categorised into nine SDS groups, standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between weight-for-age at admission and risk-adjusted mortality. RESULTS: Out of 12,458 admissions, mean weight-for-age was 1.04 SD below the UK reference population mean (p < 0.0001). Based on 942 deaths, risk-adjusted mortality was lowest in those with mild-to-moderately raised weight-for-age (SDS 0.5-2.5) and highest in children with extreme under- or overweight (SDS < -3.5 and SDS > +3.5). Logistic regression indicated that age, gender, ethnicity and weight-for-age are independent risk factors for mortality. South Asian and 'other' ethnicities had significantly increased risk of death compared to children of white and black ethnic origin. CONCLUSION: The PIC population mean weight-for-age is significantly lower than the UK reference mean. The extremes of weight-for-age are over-represented, especially underweight. Weight-for-age at admission is an independent risk factor for mortality. A U-shaped association between weight and risk-adjusted mortality exists, with the lowest risk of death in children who are mild-to-moderately overweight. Future studies should determine the impact of malnutrition on risk-adjusted mortality and investigate the aetiology of risk disparities with ethnicity.

A clinical and economic evaluation of Control of Hyperglycaemia in Paediatric intensive care (CHiP): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Early research in adults admitted to intensive care suggested that tight control of blood glucose during acute illness can be associated with reductions in mortality, length of hospital stay and complications such as infection and renal failure. Prior to our study, it was unclear whether or not children could also benefit from tight control of blood glucose during critical illness. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine if controlling blood glucose using insulin in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) reduces mortality and morbidity and is cost-effective, whether or not admission follows cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Randomised open two-arm parallel group superiority design with central randomisation with minimisation. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. Following random allocation, care givers and outcome assessors were no longer blind to allocation. SETTING: The setting was 13 English PICUs. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who met the following criteria were eligible for inclusion: ≥ 36 weeks corrected gestational age; ≤ 16 years; in the PICU following injury, following major surgery or with critical illness; anticipated treatment > 12 hours; arterial line; mechanical ventilation; and vasoactive drugs. Exclusion criteria were as follows: diabetes mellitus; inborn error of metabolism; treatment withdrawal considered; in the PICU > 5 consecutive days; and already in CHiP (Control of Hyperglycaemia in Paediatric intensive care). INTERVENTION: The intervention was tight glycaemic control (TGC): insulin by intravenous infusion titrated to maintain blood glucose between 4.0 and 7.0 mmol/l. CONVENTIONAL MANAGEMENT (CM): This consisted of insulin by intravenous infusion only if blood glucose exceeded 12.0 mmol/l on two samples at least 30 minutes apart; insulin was stopped when blood glucose fell below 10.0 mmol/l. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the number of days alive and free from mechanical ventilation within 30 days of trial entry (VFD-30). The secondary outcomes comprised clinical and economic outcomes at 30 days and 12 months and lifetime cost-effectiveness, which included costs per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: CHiP recruited from May 2008 to September 2011. In total, 19,924 children were screened and 1369 eligible patients were randomised (TGC, 694; CM, 675), 60% of whom were in the cardiac surgery stratum. The randomised groups were comparable at trial entry. More children in the TGC than in the CM arm received insulin (66% vs. 16%). The mean VFD-30 was 23 [mean difference 0.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.42 to 1.14]. The effect did not differ among prespecified subgroups. Hypoglycaemia occurred significantly more often in the TGC than in the CM arm (moderate, 12.5% vs. 3.1%; severe, 7.3% vs. 1.5%). Mean 30-day costs were similar between arms, but mean 12-month costs were lower in the TGC than in CM arm (incremental costs -£3620, 95% CI -£7743 to £502). For the non-cardiac surgery stratum, mean costs were lower in the TGC than in the CM arm (incremental cost -£9865, 95% CI -£18,558 to -£1172), but, in the cardiac surgery stratum, the costs were similar between the arms (incremental cost £133, 95% CI -£3568 to £3833). Lifetime incremental net benefits were positive overall (£3346, 95% CI -£11,203 to £17,894), but close to zero for the cardiac surgery stratum (-£919, 95% CI -£16,661 to £14,823). For the non-cardiac surgery stratum, the incremental net benefits were high (£11,322, 95% CI -£15,791 to £38,615). The probability that TGC is cost-effective is relatively high for the non-cardiac surgery stratum, but, for the cardiac surgery subgroup, the probability that TGC is cost-effective is around 0.5. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust to a range of alternative assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: CHiP found no differences in the clinical or cost-effectiveness of TGC compared with CM overall, or for prespecified subgroups. A higher proportion of the TGC arm had hypoglycaemia. This study did not provide any evidence to suggest that PICUs should stop providing CM for children admitted to PICUs following cardiac surgery. For the subgroup not admitted for cardiac surgery, TGC reduced average costs at 12 months and is likely to be cost-effective. Further research is required to refine the TGC protocol to minimise the risk of hypoglycaemic episodes and assess the long-term health benefits of TGC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN61735247. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 18, No. 26. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.