Unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement for patients with multimorbidities: a cohort study using propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting.

BACKGROUND: Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials. OBJECTIVES: Stage 1 - replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 - compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1. DESIGN: This was a cohort study. SETTING: Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data. PARTICIPANTS: Stage 1 - people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 - participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3. INTERVENTION: The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs. RESULTS: In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of < 2 points using propensity score stratification; no significant difference was observed using inverse probability weighting. Unicompartmental knee replacement more than halved the risk of venous thromboembolism [relative risk 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; relative risk 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.96) using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement was not associated with myocardial infarction or prosthetic joint infection using either method. In the long term, unicompartmental knee replacement had double the revision risk of total knee replacement [hazard ratio 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.15 to 3.38) using propensity score stratification; hazard ratio 2.60 (95% confidence interval 1.94 to 3.47) using inverse probability weighting], but half of the mortality [hazard ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; insignificant effect using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement had lower costs and higher quality-adjusted life-year gains than total knee replacement for stage 2 participants. LIMITATIONS: Although some propensity score methods successfully replicated TOPKAT, unresolved confounding may have affected stage 2. Missing Oxford Knee Scores may have led to information bias. CONCLUSIONS: Propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting successfully replicated TOPKAT, implying that some (but not all) propensity score methods can be used to evaluate surgical innovations and implantable medical devices using routine NHS data. Unicompartmental knee replacement was safer and more cost-effective than total knee replacement for patients with severe comorbidity and should be considered the first option for suitable patients. FUTURE WORK: Further research is required to understand the performance of propensity score methods for evaluating surgical innovations and implantable devices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as EUPAS17435. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

We compared the risks and benefits of partial and total knee replacements in NHS patients with a complex medical history who would normally be excluded from randomised trials on this topic. We used information that was collected during hospital appointments for people who had a knee replacement between 2009 and 2016. It is difficult to directly compare the two groups because each individual patient has a different medical history. We tested advanced statistical methods to account for these differences. In stage 1, we showed that some of these advanced statistical methods could replicate the results of a recently published surgical trial using routine data from the NHS. We compared patients in the trial with similar patients who were operated on in the NHS. Three of the proposed methods showed results similar to those obtained from the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT). In stage 2, we used the successful methods from stage 1 to study the risks, benefits and costs of partial and total knee replacement surgery in patients with complex medical histories. Two of the statistical methods found that patients who had a partial knee replacement had less self-reported pain and better function after surgery than patients who had a total knee replacement. All three methods found that partial knee replacement was safer, was associated with a lower risk of blood clots (a known complication of knee surgery) and had lower mortality over 5 years. However, patients who had a partial knee replacement were twice as likely as those with a total knee replacement to need a second surgery within 5 years. We found that partial knee replacements were less costly to the NHS and were associated with better overall quality of life for patients than total knee replacement.

Physical health monitoring in dementia and associations with ethnicity: a descriptive study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Good physical health monitoring can increase quality of life for people with dementia, but the monitoring may vary and ethnic inequalities may exist. AIM: To investigate UK primary care routine physical health monitoring for people with dementia by: (a) ethnic groups, and (b) comorbidity status. DESIGN & SETTING: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using electronic primary care records in the UK. METHOD: Physical health monitoring was compared in people with dementia from white, black, and Asian ethnic groups and compared those with ≥1 comorbidity versus no comorbidity, from 1 April 2015 to 31 March 2016. Using the Dementia : Good Care Planning framework and expert consensus, good care was defined as receiving, within 1 year: a dementia review; a blood pressure (BP) check (at least one); a GP consultation (at least one); a weight and/or body mass index (BMI) recording (at least one); and an influenza vaccination. RESULTS: Of 20 821 people with dementia, 68% received a dementia review, 80% at least one BP recording, 97% at least one GP contact, 48% a weight and/or BMI recording, and 81% an influenza vaccination in 1 year. Compared with white people, black people were 23% less likely and Asian people 16% less likely to have weight recorded (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.60 to 0.98/0.84, 0.71 to 1.00). People without comorbidities were less likely to have weight recorded (adjusted IRR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.79) and BP monitored (adjusted IRR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.75). CONCLUSION: Ethnic group was not associated with differences in physical health monitoring, other than weight monitoring. Comorbidity status was associated with weight and BP monitoring. Physical health monitoring in dementia, in particular nutrition, requires improvement.

Social Inequalities in Life Expectancy and Mortality in People With Dementia in the United Kingdom.

INTRODUCTION: Inequalities in life expectancy and mortality by social deprivation in the general population of the United Kingdom are widening. For people with dementia, data on potential gradients in life expectancy and mortality by social deprivation are sparse. This study aimed to explore potential differentials in life expectancy and mortality in people with dementia according to social deprivation. METHODS: Using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) primary care database, we included people with a diagnosis of dementia in the United Kingdom in 2000 to 2016 and obtained data on age at death and mortality. Comparisons were made according to social deprivation quintiles adjusting for age at diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 166,268 people with dementia there were no differences in life expectancy and mortality in the most deprived compared with the least deprived. This pattern has been stable during the study period, as no increasing inequalities in life expectancy and mortality according to social deprivation were found. DISCUSSION: Contrary to the general population, there were limited inequalities in life expectancy and mortality according to social deprivation for people with dementia.

Impact of the introduction and withdrawal of financial incentives on the delivery of alcohol screening and brief advice in English primary health care: an interrupted time-series analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of the introduction and withdrawal of financial incentives on alcohol screening and brief advice delivery in English primary care. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Data were split into three periods: (1) before the introduction of financial incentives (1 January 2006-31 March 2008); (2) during the implementation of financial incentives (1 April 2008-31 March 2015); and (3) after the withdrawal of financial incentives (1 April 2015-31 December 2016). Segmented regression models were fitted, with slope and step change coefficients at both intervention points. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Newly registered patients (16+) in 500 primary care practices for 2006-16 (n = 4 278 723). MEASUREMENTS: The outcome measures were percentage of patients each month who: (1) were screened for alcohol use; (2) screened positive for higher-risk drinking; and (3) were reported as having received brief advice on alcohol consumption. FINDINGS: There was no significant change in the percentage of newly registered patients who were screened for alcohol use when financial incentives were introduced. However, the percentage fell (P < 0.001) immediately when incentives were withdrawn, and fell by a further 2.96 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.21-3.70] patients per 1000 each month thereafter. After the introduction of incentives, there was an immediate increase of 9.05 (95% CI = 3.87-14.23) per 1000 patients screening positive for higher-risk drinking, but no significant further change over time. Withdrawal of financial incentives was associated with an immediate fall in screen-positive rates of 29.96 (95% CI = 19.56-40.35) per 1000 patients, followed by a rise each month thereafter of 2.14 (95% CI = 1.51-2.77) per 1000. Screen-positive patients recorded as receiving alcohol brief advice increased by 20.15 (95% CI = 12.30-28.00) per 1000 following the introduction of financial incentives, and continued to increase by 0.39 (95% CI = 0.26-0.53) per 1000 monthly until withdrawal. At this point, delivery of brief advice fell by 18.33 (95% CI = 11.97-24.69) per 1000 patients and continued to fall by a further 0.70 (95% CI = 0.28-1.12) per 1000 per month. CONCLUSIONS: Removing a financial incentive for alcohol prevention in English primary care was associated with an immediate and sustained reduction in the rate of screening for alcohol use and brief advice provision. This contrasts with no, or limited, increase in screening and brief advice delivery rates following the introduction of the scheme.

Incidence and prevalence of diabetes and cost of illness analysis of polycystic ovary syndrome: a Bayesian modelling study.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the incidence/prevalence of type 2 diabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and the economic burden associated with PCOS in the UK? SUMMARY ANSWER: The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in women with PCOS are 3-33 per 1000 person years and 26.5%, respectively, with an associated annual healthcare burden of at least £237 million in the UK. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Although observational studies have been designed to assess the incidence of diabetes in women with PCOS, these have been open to criticism because of short periods of follow-up, small sample sizes or invalidated diagnosis of PCOS. Only one study has estimated the healthcare-related economic burden of PCOS, reporting a cost of $4.36 billion per year in the USA. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a modelling study using individual patient data from a UK primary care database between 2004 and 2014 and aggregate data from the literature to obtain conversion rates through disease progression of PCOS. A simulation approach was applied to model the population dynamics of PCOS over a follow-up period of 25 years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: A total of 14 135 women with PCOS or symptoms indicative of PCOS were selected from the primary care database to estimate the incidence of confirmed diagnosis of PCOS and diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. A 'virtual' cohort including the entire PCOS population (size estimated from the UK census data) was simulated to model the population dynamics of PCOS. The economic and utility analyses were further conducted from a healthcare perspective. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The peak conversion rate from possible to diagnosed PCOS was 121 per 1000 person-year (PY). The maximal incidence of type 2 diabetes was 33 per 1000 PY. The estimated prevalence of diabetes in the PCOS population was 26.5% (95% interval: 25.4-27.8%) during a 25-year follow-up. The annual healthcare burden of PCOS based on our conservative estimate is at least £237 million for the follow-up period examined. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Due to lack of data, a full economic evaluation including healthcare costs of all the comorbidities associated with PCOS was not possible. Simplification of the real-world situation represented by the model may be a concern. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study suggests that a large number of women with symptoms indicative of PCOS never receive a definitive diagnosis yet can suffer from a rapid conversion to diabetes. This significantly reduces the quality of life for individual patients and incurs high costs for healthcare providers. As the risk of diabetes in women with PCOS is similar to that seen in populations at high risks of diabetes, it is possible that including them in national screening programmes may be cost effective. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): There was no funding for the current study. There are no conflicts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of an intervention for reducing cholesterol and cardiovascular risk for people with severe mental illness in English primary care: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illnesses, including psychosis, have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We aimed to evaluate the effects of a primary care intervention on decreasing total cholesterol concentrations and cardiovascular disease risk in people with severe mental illnesses. METHODS: We did this cluster randomised trial in general practices across England, with general practices as the cluster unit. We randomly assigned general practices (1:1) with 40 or more patients with severe mental illnesses using a computer-generated random sequence with a block size of four. Researchers were masked to allocation, but patients and general practice staff were not. We included participants aged 30-75 years with severe mental illnesses (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or psychosis), who had raised cholesterol concentrations (5·0 mmol/L) or a total:HDL cholesterol ratio of 4·0 mmol/L or more and one or more modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors. Eligible participants were recruited within each practice before randomisation. The Primrose intervention consisted of appointments (≤12) with a trained primary care professional involving manualised interventions for cardiovascular disease prevention (ie, adhering to statins, improving diet or physical activity levels, reducing alcohol, or quitting smoking). Treatment as usual involved feedback of screening results only. The primary outcome was total cholesterol at 12 months and the primary economic analysis outcome was health-care costs. We used intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN13762819. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2013, and Sept 30, 2015, we recruited general practices and between May 9, 2014, and Feb 10, 2016, we recruited participants and randomly assigned 76 general practices with 327 participants to the Primrose intervention (n=38 with 155 patients) or treatment as usual (n=38 with 172 patients). Total cholesterol concentration data were available at 12 months for 137 (88%) participants in the Primrose intervention group and 152 (88%) participants in the treatment-as-usual group. The mean total cholesterol concentration did not differ at 12 months between the two groups (5·4 mmol/L [SD 1·1] for Primrose vs 5·5 mmol/L [1·1] for treatment as usual; mean difference estimate 0·03, 95% CI -0·22 to 0·29; p=0·788). This result was unchanged by pre-agreed supportive analyses. Mean cholesterol decreased over 12 months (-0·22 mmol/L [1·1] for Primrose vs -0·36 mmol/L [1·1] for treatment as usual). Total health-care costs (£1286 [SE 178] in the Primrose intervention group vs £2182 [328] in the treatment-as-usual group; mean difference -£895, 95% CI -1631 to -160; p=0·012) and psychiatric inpatient costs (£157 [135] vs £956 [313]; -£799, -1480 to -117; p=0·018) were lower in the Primrose intervention group than the treatment-as-usual group. Six serious adverse events of hospital admission and one death occurred in the Primrose group (n=7) and 23, including three deaths, occurred in the treatment-as-usual group (n=18). INTERPRETATION: Total cholesterol concentration at 12 months did not differ between the Primrose and treatment-as-usual groups, possibly because of the cluster design, good care in the treatment-as-usual group, short duration of the intervention, or suboptimal focus on statin prescribing. The association between the Primrose intervention and fewer psychiatric admissions, with potential cost-effectiveness, might be important. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research.

Cost-effectiveness of personal tailored risk information and taster sessions to increase the uptake of the NHS stop smoking services: the Start2quit randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a two-component intervention designed to increase attendance at the NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSSs) in England. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomized controlled trial (Start2quit). SETTING: NHS SSS and general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: The study comprised 4384 smokers aged 16 years or more identified from medical records in 99 participating practices, who were motivated to quit and had not attended the SSS in the previous 12 months. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Intervention was a personalized and tailored letter sent from the general practitioner (GP) and a personal invitation and appointment to attend a taster session providing information about SSS. Control was a standard generic letter from the GP advertising SSS and asking smokers to contact the service to make an appointment. MEASUREMENTS: Costs measured from an NHS/personal social services perspective, estimated health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) measured with EQ-5D and incremental cost per QALY gained during both 6 months and a life-time horizon. FINDINGS: During the trial period, the adjusted mean difference in costs was £92 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -£32 to -£216) and the adjusted mean difference in QALY gains was 0.002 (95% CI = -0.001 to 0.004). This generates an incremental cost per QALY gained of £59 401. The probability that the tailored letter and taster session is more cost-effective than the generic letter at 6 months is never above 50%. In contrast, the discounted life-time health-care cost was lower in the intervention group, while the life-time QALY gains were significantly higher. The probability that the intervention is more cost-effective is more than 83% using a £20 000-30 000 per QALY-gained decision-making threshold. CONCLUSIONS: An intervention designed to increase attendance at the NHS Stop Smoking Services (tailored letter and taster session in the services) appears less likely to be cost-effective than a generic letter in the short term, but is likely to become more cost-effective than the generic letter during the long term.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm for people with severe mental illness (PRIMROSE).

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of two bespoke severe mental illness (SMI)-specific risk algorithms compared with standard risk algorithms for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in those with SMI. SETTING: Primary care setting in the UK. The analysis was from the National Health Service perspective. PARTICIPANTS: 1000 individuals with SMI from The Health Improvement Network Database, aged 30-74 years and without existing CVD, populated the model. INTERVENTIONS: Four cardiovascular risk algorithms were assessed: (1) general population lipid, (2) general population body mass index (BMI), (3) SMI-specific lipid and (4) SMI-specific BMI, compared against no algorithm. At baseline, each cardiovascular risk algorithm was applied and those considered high risk (> 10%) were assumed to be prescribed statin therapy while others received usual care. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were accrued for each algorithm including no algorithm, and cost-effectiveness was calculated using the net monetary benefit (NMB) approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test assumptions made and uncertainty around parameter estimates. RESULTS: The SMI-specific BMI algorithm had the highest NMB resulting in 15 additional QALYs and a cost saving of approximately £53 000 per 1000 patients with SMI over 10 years, followed by the general population lipid algorithm (13 additional QALYs and a cost saving of £46 000). CONCLUSIONS: The general population lipid and SMI-specific BMI algorithms performed equally well. The ease and acceptability of use of an SMI-specific BMI algorithm (blood tests not required) makes it an attractive algorithm to implement in clinical settings.

Effectiveness of personalised risk information and taster sessions to increase the uptake of smoking cessation services (Start2quit): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: National Health Service Stop Smoking Services (SSSs) offer help to smokers motivated to quit; however, attendance rates are low and recent figures show a downward trend. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a two-component personalised intervention on attendance at SSSs. METHODS: We did this randomised controlled trial in 18 SSSs in England. Current smokers (aged ≥16 years) were identified from medical records in 99 general practices and invited to participate by their general practitioner. Individuals who gave consent, were motivated to quit, and had not attended the SSS within the past 12 months, were randomly assigned (3:2), via computer-generated randomisation with permuted blocks (block size of five), to receive either an individually tailored risk letter and invitation to attend a no-commitment introductory session run by the local SSS (intervention group) or a standard generic letter advertising the local SSS (control group). Randomisation was stratified by sex. Masking of participants to receipt of a personal letter and invitation to a taster session was not possible. The personal letter was generated by a research assistant, but the remainder of the research team were masked to group allocation. General practitioners, practice staff, and SSS advisers were unaware of their patients' allocation. The primary outcome was attendance at the first session of an SSS course within 6 months from randomisation. We did analysis by intention to treat. This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN 76561916. FINDINGS: Recruitment, collection of baseline data, delivery of the intervention, and follow up of participants took place between Jan 31, 2011, and July 12, 2014. We randomly assigned 4384 smokers to the intervention group (n=2636) or the control group (n=1748); 4383 participants comprised the intention-to-treat population. Attendance at the first session of an SSS course was significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group (458 [17·4%] vs 158 [9·0%] participants; unadjusted odds ratio 2·12 [95% CI 1·75-2·57]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Delivery of personalised risk information alongside an invitation to an introductory session more than doubled the odds of attending the SSS compared with a standard generic invitation to contact the service. This result suggests that a more proactive approach, combined with an opportunity to experience local services, can reduce patient barriers to receiving treatment and has high potential to increase uptake. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health Research Health Technology Assessment.

Start2quit: a randomised clinical controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using personal tailored risk information and taster sessions to increase the uptake of the NHS Stop Smoking Services.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSSs) offer help to smokers who want to quit. However, the proportion of smokers attending the SSSs is low and current figures show a continuing downward trend. This research addressed the problem of how to motivate more smokers to accept help to quit. OBJECTIVES: To assess the relative effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness, of an intervention consisting of proactive recruitment by a brief computer-tailored personal risk letter and an invitation to a 'Come and Try it' taster session to provide information about the SSSs, compared with a standard generic letter advertising the service, in terms of attendance at the SSSs of at least one session and validated 7-day point prevalent abstinence at the 6-month follow-up. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention with follow-up 6 months after the date of randomisation. SETTING: SSSs and general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: All smokers aged ≥ 16 years identified from medical records in participating practices who were motivated to quit and who had not attended the SSS in the previous 12 months. Participants were randomised in the ratio 3 : 2 (intervention to control) by a computer program. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention - brief personalised and tailored letter sent from the general practitioner using information obtained from the screening questionnaire and from medical records, and an invitation to attend a taster session, run by the local SSS. Control - standard generic letter from the general practice advertising the local SSS and the therapies available, and asking the smoker to contact the service to make an appointment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Proportion of people attending the first session of a 6-week course over a period of 6 months from the receipt of the invitation letter, measured by records of attendance at the SSSs; (2) 7-day point prevalent abstinence at the 6-month follow-up, validated by salivary cotinine analysis; and (3) cost-effectiveness of the intervention. RESULTS: Eighteen SSSs and 99 practices within the SSS areas participated; 4384 participants were randomised to the intervention (n = 2636) or control (n = 1748). One participant withdrew and 4383 were analysed. The proportion of people attending the first session of a SSS course was significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group [17.4% vs. 9.0%; unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75 to 2.57; p < 0.001]. The validated 7-day point prevalent abstinence at the 6-month follow-up was significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group (9.0% vs. 5.6%; unadjusted OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.15; p < 0.001), as was the validated 3-month prolonged abstinence and all other periods of abstinence measured by self-report. Using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making threshold range of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the probability that the intervention was more cost-effective than the control was up to 27% at 6 months and > 86% over a lifetime horizon. LIMITATIONS: Participating SSSs may not be representative of all SSSs in England. Recruitment was low, at 4%. CONCLUSIONS: The Start2quit trial added to evidence that a proactive approach with an intensive intervention to deliver personalised risk information and offer a no-commitment introductory session can be successful in reaching more smokers and increasing the uptake of the SSS and quit rates. The intervention appears less likely to be cost-effective in the short term, but is highly likely to be cost-effective over a lifetime horizon. FUTURE WORK: Further research could assess the separate effects of these components. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN76561916. FUNDING DETAILS: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 3. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Inequalities in receipt of mental and physical healthcare in people with dementia in the UK.

Background: UK Dementia Strategies prioritise fair access to mental and physical healthcare. We investigated whether there are inequalities by deprivation or gender in healthcare received by people with dementia, and compared healthcare received by people with and without dementia. Methods: we investigated primary care records of 68,061 community dwelling dementia patients and 259,337 people without dementia (2002-13). We tested hypotheses that people with dementia from more deprived areas, and who are women receive more psychotropic medication, fewer surgery consultations, are less likely to receive annual blood pressure, weight monitoring and an annual review, compared with those from less deprived areas and men. Results: only half of people with dementia received a documented annual review. Deprivation was not associated with healthcare received. Compared to men with dementia, women with dementia had lower rates of surgery consultations (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.90, 95% CI 0.90-0.91), of annual blood pressure monitoring (adjusted IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97) and of annual weight monitoring (adjusted IRR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). Men with dementia were less likely to be taking psychotropic medication than women with dementia. People with dementia had fewer surgery consultations and were less likely to have their weight and blood pressure monitored at least annually, compared to the non-dementia group. Conclusions: people with dementia, in particular women, appear to receive less primary healthcare, but take more psychotropic medication that may negatively impact their physical health. Reducing these inequalities and improving access of people with dementia to preventative healthcare could improve the health of people with dementia.

The RECORD reporting guidelines: meeting the methodological and ethical demands of transparency in research using routinely-collected health data.

Routinely-collected health data (RCD) are now used for a wide range of studies, including observational studies, comparative effectiveness research, diagnostics, studies of adverse effects, and predictive analytics. At the same time, limitations inherent in using data collected without specific a priori research questions are increasingly recognized. There is also a growing awareness of the suboptimal quality of reports presenting research based on RCD. This has created a perfect storm of increased interest and use of RCD for research, together with inadequate reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of these data resources. The REporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely-collected Data (RECORD) statement was developed to address these limitations and to help researchers using RCD to meet their ethical obligations of complete and accurate reporting, as well as improve the utility of research conducted using RCD. The RECORD statement has been endorsed by more than 15 journals, including Clinical Epidemiology. This journal now recommends that authors submit the RECORD checklist together with any manuscript reporting on research using RCD.

Role of renal function in cardiovascular risk assessment: A retrospective cohort study in a population with low incidence of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD), a marker of cardiovascular risk, is susceptible to therapeutic intervention but need further study in populations with low incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). Incorporating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) could improve cardiovascular risk prediction in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To determine if decreased GFR is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality and to analyse GFR effect on cardiovascular risk prediction in a population with low CHD incidence. METHODS: Retrospective, observational, population-based study of 1,081,865 adults (35-74years old). Main exposure variable: GFR. OUTCOMES: CHD, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular diseases, all-cause mortality. Association between GFR categories of CKD (G1-G5) and outcomes was tested with Cox survival models. G1 was defined as the reference category. Predictive value of GFR was evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indices. RESULTS: Beginning at stage-3a CKD, increased risk was observed for coronary (HR 1.27 (95%CI 1.14-1.43)), cerebrovascular (HR 1.19 (95%CI 1.06-1.34)), cardiovascular (HR 1.23 (95%CI 1.13-1.34)) and all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.17 (95%CI 1.07-1.27)). GFR did not increase discrimination and reclassification indices significantly for any outcome. CONCLUSION: In general population with low CHD incidence and stage-3 CKD, impaired GFR was associated with increased risk of all cardiovascular diseases studied and all-cause mortality, but adding GFR values did not improve cardiovascular risk calculation. Despite a four-fold higher rate of CHD incidence at GFR G3a compared to G1, this represents moderate cardiovascular risk in our context.

Risks and benefits of psychotropic medication in pregnancy: cohort studies based on UK electronic primary care health records.

BACKGROUND: Although many women treated with psychotropic medication become pregnant, no psychotropic medication has been licensed for use in pregnancy. This leaves women and their health-care professionals in a treatment dilemma, as they need to balance the health of the woman with that of the unborn child. The aim of this project was to investigate the risks and benefits of psychotropic medication in women treated for psychosis who become pregnant. OBJECTIVE(S): (1) To provide a descriptive account of psychotropic medication prescribed before pregnancy, during pregnancy and up to 15 months after delivery in UK primary care from 1995 to 2012; (2) to identify risk factors predictive of discontinuation and restarting of lithium (multiple manufacturers), anticonvulsant mood stabilisers and antipsychotic medication; (3) to examine the extent to which pregnancy is a determinant for discontinuation of psychotropic medication; (4) to examine prevalence of records suggestive of adverse mental health, deterioration or relapse 18 months before and during pregnancy, and up to 15 months after delivery; and (5) to estimate absolute and relative risks of adverse maternal and child outcomes of psychotropic treatment in pregnancy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort studies. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Women treated for psychosis who became pregnant, and their children. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment with antipsychotics, lithium or anticonvulsant mood stabilisers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discontinuation and restarting of treatment; worsening of mental health; acute pre-eclampsia/gestational hypertension; gestational diabetes; caesarean section; perinatal death; major congenital malformations; poor birth outcome (low birthweight, preterm birth, small for gestational age, low Apgar score); transient poor birth outcomes (tremor, agitation, breathing and muscle tone problems); and neurodevelopmental and behavioural disorders. DATA SOURCES: Clinical Practice Research Datalink database and The Health Improvement Network primary care database. RESULTS: Prescribing of psychotropic medication was relatively constant before pregnancy, decreased sharply in early pregnancy and peaked after delivery. Antipsychotic and anticonvulsant treatment increased over the study period. The recording of markers of worsening mental health peaked after delivery. Pregnancy was a strong determinant for discontinuation of psychotropic medication. However, between 40% and 76% of women who discontinued psychotropic medication before or in early pregnancy restarted treatment by 15 months after delivery. The risk of major congenital malformations, and neurodevelopmental and behavioural outcomes in valproate (multiple manufacturers) users was twice that in users of other anticonvulsants. The risks of adverse maternal and child outcomes in women who continued antipsychotic use in pregnancy were not greater than in those who discontinued treatment before pregnancy. LIMITATIONS: A few women would have received parts of their care outside primary care, which may not be captured in this analysis. Likewise, the analyses were based on prescribing data, which may differ from usage. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotropic medication is prescribed before, during and after pregnancy. Many women discontinue treatment before or during early pregnancy and then restart again in late pregnancy or after delivery. Our results support previous associations between valproate and adverse child outcomes but we found no evidence of such an association for antipsychotics. FUTURE WORK: Future research should focus on (1) curtailing the use of sodium valproate; (2) estimating the benefits of psychotropic drug use in pregnancy; and (3) investigating the risks associated with lifestyle choices that are more prevalent among women using psychotropic drugs. FUNDING DETAILS: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Evaluating the clinical and cost effectiveness of a behaviour change intervention for lowering cardiovascular disease risk for people with severe mental illnesses in primary care (PRIMROSE study): study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illnesses die up to 20 years earlier than the general population, with cardiovascular disease being the leading cause of death. National guidelines recommend that the physical care of people with severe mental illnesses should be the responsibility of primary care; however, little is known about effective interventions to lower cardiovascular disease risk in this population and setting. Following extensive peer review, funding was secured from the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) to deliver the proposed study. The aim of the trial is to test the effectiveness of a behavioural intervention to lower cardiovascular disease risk in people with severe mental illnesses in United Kingdom General Practices. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a cluster randomised controlled trial in 70 GP practices for people with severe mental illnesses, aged 30 to 75 years old, with elevated cardiovascular disease risk factors. The trial will compare the effectiveness of a behavioural intervention designed to lower cardiovascular disease risk and delivered by a practice nurse or healthcare assistant, with standard care offered in General Practice. A total of 350 people will be recruited and followed up at 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is total cholesterol level at the 12-month follow-up and secondary outcomes include blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, smoking status, quality of life, adherence to treatments and services and behavioural measures for diet, physical activity and alcohol use. An economic evaluation will be carried out to determine the cost effectiveness of the intervention compared with standard care. DISCUSSION: The results of this pragmatic trial will provide evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of the intervention on lowering total cholesterol and addressing multiple cardiovascular disease risk factors in people with severe mental illnesses in GP Practices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13762819. Date of Registration: 25 February 2013. Date and Version Number: 27 August 2014 Version 5.

Recording of Influenza-Like Illness in UK Primary Care 1995-2013: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of recent studies examining recording of influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary care in the UK over time and according to population characteristics. Our aim was to determine time trends and socio-demographic patterns of ILI recorded consultations in primary care. METHODS: We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database and extracted data on all ILI consultations between 1995 and 2013. We estimated ILI recorded consultation rates per 100,000 person-weeks (pw) by age, gender, deprivation and winter season. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine time trends and the effect of socio-demographic characteristics. Trends in ILI recorded consultations were compared to trends in consultations with less specific symptoms (cough or fever) recorded. RESULTS: The study involved 7,682,908 individuals in 542 general practices. The ILI consultation rate decreased from 32.5/100,000 pw (95% confidence interval (CI) 32.1, 32.9) in 1995-98 to 15.5/100,000 pw (95% CI 15.4, 15.7) by 2010-13. The decrease occurred prior to 2002/3, and rates have remained largely stable since then. Declines were evident in all age groups. In comparison, cough or fever consultation rates increased from 169.4/100,000 pw (95% CI 168.6, 170.3) in 1995-98 to 237.7/100,000 pw (95% CI 237.2, 238.2) in 2010-13. ILI consultation rates were highest among individuals aged 15-44 years, higher in women than men, and in individuals from deprived areas. CONCLUSION: There is substantial variation in ILI recorded consultations over time and by population socio-demographic characteristics, most likely reflecting changing recording behaviour by GPs. These results highlight the difficulties in using coded information from electronic primary care records to measure the severity of influenza epidemics across time and assess the relative burden of ILI in different population subgroups.

Incidence and recurrence of boils and abscesses within the first year: a cohort study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Boils and abscesses are common in primary care but the burden of recurrent infection is unknown. AIM: To investigate the incidence of and risk factors for recurrence of boil or abscess for individuals consulting primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study using electronic health records from primary care in the UK. METHOD: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database was used to identify patients who had consulted their GP for a boil or abscess. Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between age, sex, social deprivation, and consultation and to calculate the incidence of, and risk factors for, repeat consultation for a boil or abscess. RESULTS: Overall, 164 461 individuals were identified who consulted their GP for a boil or abscess between 1995 and 2010. The incidence of first consultation for a boil or abscess was 512 (95% CI = 509 to 515) per 100 000 person-years in females and 387 (95% CI = 385 to 390) per 100 000 person-years in males. First consultations were most frequent in younger age groups (16-34 years) and those with the greatest levels of social deprivation. The rate of repeat consultation for a new infection during follow up was 107.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 105.6 to 109.4) per 1000 person-years. Obesity (relative risk [RR] 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), diabetes (RR 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), smoking (RR 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.4), age <30 years (RR 1.2, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), and prior antibiotic use (RR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4) were all associated with repeat consultation for a boil or abscess. CONCLUSION: Ten percent of patients with a boil or abscess develop a repeat boil or abscess within 12 months. Obesity, diabetes, young age, smoking, and prescription of an antibiotic in the 6 months before initial presentation were independently associated with recurrent infection, and may represent options for prevention.

Women's perception of risks of adverse fetal pregnancy outcomes: a large-scale multinational survey.

OBJECTIVE: To determine pregnant women and new mothers' perception of risks in pregnancy. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a large-scale multinational survey including 9113 pregnant women and new mothers from 18 countries in Europe, North America and Australia. MAIN OUTCOMES: Risk perception scores (0-10) for harmful effects to the fetus were derived for: (1) medicines (over-the-counter medicine and prescribed medicine), (2) food substances (eggs and blue veined cheese), (3) herbal substances (ginger and cranberries) (4) alcohol and tobacco, and (5) thalidomide. RESULTS: Overall, 80% (6453/8131) of women perceived the risk of giving birth to a child with a birth defect to be ≤ 5 of 100 births. The women rated cranberries and ginger least harmful (mean risk perception scores 1.1 and 1.5 of 10, respectively) and antidepressants, alcohol, smoking and thalidomide as most harmful (7.6, 8.6, 9.2 and 9.4 out of 10, respectively). The perception varied with age, level of education, pregnancy status, profession and geographical region. Noticeably, 70% had not heard about thalidomide, but of those who had (2692/9113), the risk perception scores were 0.4-0.5 points lower in women below 25 years compared to women aged 26-30 years. CONCLUSIONS: In general, women perceived the risks of giving birth to a child with birth defects low, but there were substantial disparities between women's perceived risks and the actual risks when it comes to over-the-counter agents against nausea and prescribed medication. The study revealed that few women knew of thalidomide, suggesting that the general awareness among women of the teratogenic effects of thalidomide is declining, but it has left a general scepticism about safety of medication in pregnancy. This may have some severe consequences if women are left without medical treatments in pregnancy.

Trends of people using drugs and opioid substitute treatment recorded in England and wales general practice (1994-2012).

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug use is a multifaceted public-health problem with potentially serious impacts. The United Kingdom has one of the highest prevalence of illegal drug use in Europe. Reduction of overall illegal drug use in England and Wales has decreased from 11% to 8.2% (2012/13) over the past 10 years. People who use drugs often seek help from their family doctors. AIMS: To investigate General Practitioners (family doctors) first recording of drug use and opioid substitute treatment in primary care settings. DESIGN: A descriptive study design. Males and females (16-64 years old) were extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. SETTING: England and Wales primary care. METHOD: The first recording of drug use and opioid substitution treatment in primary care was estimated for the period (1994-2012). Poisson regressions were conducted to estimate incidence risk ratios (IRR). RESULTS: We identified 33,508 first recordings of drug use and 10,869 individuals with prescriptions for opioid substitute treatment. Overall, males (IRR 2.02, 95% CI:1.97-2.07), people in the age-group; 16-24 (IRR 6.7, 95% CI:6.4-6.9) compared to those over 25 years and the most deprived (IRR 4.2, 95% CI:3.9-4.4) were more likely to have a recording of drug use. Males (IRR 1.2 95% CI:1.2-1.3), in the age-group; 25-34 (IRR 1.8 95% CI:1.7-1.9) and the most deprived (IRR 3.9 95% CI:3.6-4.3) were the groups more likely to have a opioid substitute treatment prescription. CONCLUSION: It is evident from this study that there is little recording of drug use and opioid substitute treatment in primary care. Most drug users do not receive treatment in primary care.