Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Vespa mandarinia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the Pacific Northwest, United States.

The recent introduction of the Asian giant hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith, in the United States in late 2019 has raised concerns about its establishment in the Pacific Northwest and its potential deleterious effects on honey bees, Apis spp., and their pollination services in the region. Therefore, we conducted a risk assessment of the establishment of V. mandarinia in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho on a county-by-county basis. Our highly conservative tier-1 qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessment relied on the biological requirements and ecological relationships of V. mandarinia in the environments of the Pacific Northwest. Our risk characterization was based on climate and habitat suitability estimates for V. mandarinia queens to overwinter and colonize nests, density and distribution of apiaries, and locations of major human-mediated introduction pathways that may increase establishment of the hornet in the counties. Our results suggest that 32 counties in the region could be at low risk, 120 at medium risk, and 23 at high risk of establishment. Many of the western counties in the region were estimated to be at the highest risk of establishment mainly because of their suitable climate for queens to overwinter, dense forest biomass for nest colonization, and proximity to major port and freight hubs in the region. By design, our tier-1 risk assessment most likely overestimates the risk of establishment, but considering its negative effects, these counties should be prioritized in ongoing monitoring and eradication efforts of V. mandarinia.

Tolerance: the forgotten child of plant resistance.

Plant resistance against insect herbivory has greatly focused on antibiosis, whereby the plant has a deleterious effect on the herbivore, and antixenosis, whereby the plant is able to direct the herbivore away from it. Although these two types of resistance may reduce injury and yield loss, they can produce selection pressures on insect herbivores that lead to pest resistance. Tolerance, on the other hand, is a more sustainable pest management strategy because it involves only a plant response and therefore does not cause evolution of resistance in target pest populations. Despite its attractive attributes, tolerance has been poorly studied and understood. In this critical, interpretive review, we discuss tolerance to insect herbivory and the biological and socioeconomic factors that have limited its use in plant resistance and integrated pest management. First, tolerance is difficult to identify, and the mechanisms conferring it are poorly understood. Second, the genetics of tolerance are mostly unknown. Third, several obstacles hinder the establishment of high-throughput phenotyping methods for large-scale screening of tolerance. Fourth, tolerance has received little attention from entomologists because, for most, their primary interest, research training, and funding opportunities are in mechanisms which affect pest biology, not plant biology. Fifth, the efforts of plant resistance are directed at controlling pest populations rather than managing plant stress. We conclude this paper by discussing future research and development activities.

A refined aquatic ecological risk assessment for a pyrethroid insecticide used for adult mosquito management.

The use of pyrethroid insecticides has increased substantially throughout the world over the past few decades as the use of organophorous, carbamate, and organochlorine insecticides is being phased out. Pyrethroids are the most common class of insecticides for ultralow-volume (ULV) aerosol applications used to manage high densities of adult mosquitoes. Pyrethroids are highly toxic to nontarget organisms such as certain aquatic organisms, and there have been concerns about the effect of applications of ULV insecticides on these organisms. To address the uncertainties associated with the risks of ULV applications and the contradictory findings of other ecological risk assessments, the authors performed a probabilistic aquatic ecological risk assessment for permethrin using actual environmental deposition on surfaces to estimate permethrin concentrations in water. The present study is the first ecological risk assessment for pyrethroids to quantitatively integrate the reduction in bioavailability resulting from the presence of dissolved organic matter. As part of the risk assessment, the authors incorporated a species sensitivity distribution to take into account the differences in toxicity for different species. The 95th percentile estimated concentration would result in less than 0.0001% of the potentially affected fraction of species reaching the lethal concentration that kills 50% of a population. The results of the present study are supported by the weight of evidence that pyrethroids applied by ground-based ULV equipment will not result in deleterious effects on aquatic organisms.

Net risk: a risk assessment of long-lasting insecticide bed nets used for malaria management.

Despite the demonstrated ability of bed nets that have been factory-impregnated with long-lasting insecticides (LLINs) to protect people from malaria and despite the ambitious plans for their widespread use, the health risks from the LLINs themselves have not been adequately investigated and reported in the peer-reviewed science literature. Here, we use a probabilistic risk assessment approach to estimate the risks to Africans from inhalation, dermal, and oral exposures to the newer LLINs with permethrin, α-cypermethrin, or deltamethrin as the insecticide active ingredient. We estimated exposures to LLINs using 17 age groups to incorporate different body weights and sleeping behaviors. Risk quotients (exposure divided by toxic threshold) at the 50th and 90th percentiles for non-cancer risks were < 1.0 for lifetime adjusted risk and all youth and adult age groups. Risk quotients for infants and toddlers (0-3 years) and child groups from 3 to 10 years were ≥ 1.0 for specific bed nets.

Limitations of the entomological operational risk assessment using probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

The Entomological Operational Risk Assessment (EORA) is used by the U.S. military to estimate risks posed by arthropod-vectored pathogens that produce human diseases. Our analysis demonstrated that the EORA matrix is formatted so that a small change in probability results in a discontinuous jump in risk. In addition, we show the overlap of different risk categories with respect to their probability of occurrence. Our results reveal that the fundamental mathematical problems associated with the EORA process may not provide estimates that are better than random chance. To ameliorate many of the problems associated with the EORA, we suggest more robust methods for performing qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessments when it is difficult to obtain the probability that an adverse event will occur and when the knowledge of experts can aid the process.

Economic cost analysis of West Nile virus outbreak, Sacramento County, California, USA, 2005.

In 2005, an outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) disease occurred in Sacramento County, California; 163 human cases were reported. In response to WNV surveillance indicating increased WNV activity, the Sacramento-Yolo Mosquito and Vector Control District conducted an emergency aerial spray. We determined the economic impact of the outbreak, including the vector control event and the medical cost to treat WNV disease. WNV disease in Sacramento County cost approximately $2.28 million for medical treatment and patients' productivity loss for both West Nile fever and West Nile neuroinvasive disease. Vector control cost approximately $701,790, including spray procedures and overtime hours. The total economic impact of WNV was $2.98 million. A cost-benefit analysis indicated that only 15 cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease would need to be prevented to make the emergency spray cost-effective.

A probabilistic risk assessment for deployed military personnel after the implementation of the "Leishmaniasis Control Program" at Tallil Air Base, Iraq.

Leishmaniasis has been of concern to the U.S. military and has re-emerged in importance because of recent deployments to the Middle East. We conducted a retrospective probabilistic risk assessment for military personnel potentially exposed to insecticides during the "Leishmaniasis Control Plan" (LCP) undertaken in 2003 at Tallil Air Base, Iraq. We estimated acute and subchronic risks from resmethrin, malathion, piperonyl butoxide (PBO), and pyrethrins applied using a truck-mounted ultra-low-volume (ULV) sprayer and lambda-cyhalothrin, cyfluthrin, bifenthrin, chlorpyrifos, and cypermethrin used for residual sprays. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our risk assessment (estimated environmental exposure/toxic endpoint) and set the RQ level of concern (LOC) at 1.0. Acute RQs for truck-mounted ULV and residual sprays ranged from 0.00007 to 33.3 at the 95th percentile. Acute exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin, bifenthrin, and chlorpyrifos exceeded the RQ LOC. Subchronic RQs for truck-mounted ULV and residual sprays ranged from 0.00008 to 32.8 at the 95th percentile. Subchronic exposures to lambda-cyhalothrin and chlorpyrifos exceeded the LOC. However, estimated exposures to lambda-cyhalothrin, bifenthrin, and chlorpyrifos did not exceed their respective no observed adverse effect levels.

A human dietary risk assessment associated with glycoalkaloid responses of potato to Colorado potato beetle defoliation.

A quantitative human dietary risk assessment was conducted using the glycoalkaloid concentrations measured from tubers of plants defoliated by Colorado potato beetles and undefoliated (control). There was a significantly greater production of glycoalkaloids for defoliated plants compared to control plants for both skin and inner tissue of tubers. The dietary risk posed to different human subgroups associated with the consumption of potatoes was estimated for the 50th, 95th, and 99.9th percentile US national consumption values. Exposures were compared to a toxic threshold of 1.0mg/kg body weight. Defoliation by Colorado potato beetles increased dietary risk by approximately 48%. Glycoalkaloid concentrations within the inner tissue of tubers, including undefoliated controls, exceeded the toxic threshold for all human subgroups at less than the 99.9th percentile of exposure, but not the 95th percentile.

Environmental concentrations, fate, and risk assessment of pyrethrins and piperonyl butoxide after aerial ultralow-volume applications for adult mosquito management.

One of the most effective ways of managing adult mosquitoes that vector human and animals diseases is the use of ultralow-volume insecticides. Because of concerns about the safety of the insecticides used for the management of adult mosquitoes, we conducted an environmental fate and efficacy study in Princeton and Colusa (both CA, USA) after aerial applications of pyrethrins and piperonyl butoxide (PBO). One hour before application, PBO concentrations in water were 0.008 and 0.2175 microg/L for Princeton and Colusa, respectively. One hour after the spray event in Princeton, the average PBO concentrations were 0.0125 microg/cm2 on ground-deposition pads and 0.1723 microg/L in water samples, with concentrations decreasing significantly over time. One hour after the spray event in Colusa, the average PBO concentrations were 0.0199 microg/cm2 on deposition pads and 1.274 microg/L in water samples, with concentrations decreasing significantly over time. A significant time and location effect for both deposition pads and water samples in Princeton and Colusa was observed (p<0.001 and p=0.014, respectively). Pyrethrins were not detected in nearly all ground and water samples. One hour after application, mortality of Culex tarsalis and Culex pipiens in sentinel cages was significantly higher than at the control site for both locations (p<0.001). Risk quotients for aquatic surrogate species in Princeton and Colusa were 0.002 or less at 1 h after application, which did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk quotient level of concern for endangered aquatic organisms of 0.05. Our results suggest that the amounts of pyrethrins and PBO deposited on the ground and in water after aerial ULV insecticide applications are lower than those estimated by previous exposure and risk assessments.

An ecological risk assessment for insecticides used in adult mosquito management.

West Nile virus (WNV) has been a concern for people across the United States since the disease was initially observed in the summer of 1999. Since 1999, WNV has caused the largest arboviral encephalitis epidemic in US history. Vector control management programs have been intensively implemented to control mosquitoes that carry WNV. Our deterministic ecological risk assessment focused on 6 common mosquito adulticides used in vector control, including 3 pyrethroids (d-phenothrin, resmethrin, and permethrin), pyrethrins, and 2 organophosphates (malathion and naled). Piperonyl butoxide, a synergist for the pyrethroids, was also assessed. Both aquatic and terrestrial nontarget organisms were considered for acute and chronic exposures to the adulticides. Tier I exposure estimates were derived from ISCST3 and AERMOD for deposition and air concentrations affecting terrestrial organisms and PRZM-EXAMS for standard pond concentrations affecting aquatic organisms. Nontargets exposed to adulticides included small mammals, birds, as well as aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates in a pond subject to receiving the chemical via drift and runoff. Risk quotients were obtained by comparing exposures to toxic endpoints. All risk quotients were low indicating that risks to ecological receptors most likely were small.

Genetically engineered plants, endangered species, and risk: a temporal and spatial exposure assessment for Karner blue butterfly larvae and Bt maize pollen.

Genetically engineered maize (Zea mays) containing insecticidal endotoxin proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) delta-endotoxin proteins has been adopted widely in the Midwestern United States. The proteins are toxic to several lepidopteran species and because a variety of maize tissues, including pollen, may express the endotoxins, the probability of exposure to nontarget species, including endangered species, needs to be understood. The objective of this study was to assess the potential temporal and spatial exposure of endangered Karner blue butterfly larvae (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) to Bt maize pollen in Wisconsin using probabilistic exposure techniques and geographic information systems analysis. Based on degree-day modeling of butterfly phenology and maize pollen shed, there is some potential for temporal exposure of larvae to maize pollen. However, in the majority of years and locations, maize pollen shed most likely will occur after the majority of larval feeding on wild lupine (Lupinus perennis). The spatial analysis indicates that some Karner blue butterfly populations occur in close proximity to maize fields, but in the vast majority of cases the butterfly's host plant and maize fields are separated by more than 500 m. A small number of potential or existing Karner blue butterfly sites are located near maize fields, including sites in two of the four counties where temporal overlap is most likely. The exposure assessment indicates that these two counties should receive the highest priority to determine if Karner blue butterfly larvae are actually at risk and then, if needed, to reduce or prevent exposure.

A human-health risk assessment for West Nile virus and insecticides used in mosquito management.

West Nile virus (WNV) has been a major public health concern in North America since 1999, when the first outbreak in the Western Hemisphere occurred in New York City. As a result of this ongoing disease outbreak, management of mosquitoes that vector WNV throughout the United States and Canada has necessitated using insecticides in areas where they traditionally have not been used or have been used less frequently. This has resulted in concerns by the public about the risks from insecticide use. The objective of this study was to use reasonable worst-case risk assessment methodologies to evaluate human-health risks for WNV and the insecticides most commonly used to control adult mosquitoes. We evaluated documented health effects from WNV infection and determined potential population risks based on reported frequencies. We determined potential acute (1-day) and subchronic (90-day) multiroute residential exposures from each insecticide for several human subgroups during a WNV disease outbreak scenario. We then compared potential insecticide exposures to toxicologic and regulatory effect levels. Risk quotients (RQs, the ratio of exposure to toxicologic effect) were < 1.0 for all subgroups. Acute RQs ranged from 0.0004 to 0.4726, and subchronic RQs ranged from 0.00014 to 0.2074. Results from our risk assessment and the current weight of scientific evidence indicate that human-health risks from residential exposure to mosquito insecticides are low and are not likely to exceed levels of concern. Further, our results indicate that, based on human-health criteria, the risks from WNV exceed the risks from exposure to mosquito insecticides.

A comparative risk assessment of genetically engineered, mutagenic, and conventional wheat production systems.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties produced using modern biotechnologies, such as genetic engineering and mutagenic techniques, have lagged behind other crop species, but are now being developed and, in the case of mutagenic wheat, commercially grown around the world. Because these wheat varieties have emerged recently, there is a unique opportunity to assess comparatively the potential environmental risks (human health, ecological, and livestock risks) associated with genetically engineered, mutagenic, and conventional wheat production systems. Replacement of traditional herbicides with glyphosate in a glyphosate-tolerant (genetically engineered) wheat system or imazamox in an imidazolinone-tolerant (mutagenic) wheat system may alter environmental risks associated with weed management. Additionally, because both systems rely on plants that express novel proteins, the proteins and plants themselves may impose risks. The purpose of our study was to examine comparatively the multiple aspects of risk associated with different wheat production systems in the US and Canada using the risk assessment paradigm. Specifically, we used tier 1 quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods to compare specific environmental risks associated with the different wheat production systems. Both glyphosate and imazamox present lower human health and ecological risks than many other herbicides associated with conventional wheat production systems evaluated in this study. The differences in risks were most pronounced when comparing glyphosate and imazamox to herbicides currently with substantial market share. Current weight-of-evidence suggests that the transgenic CP4 EPSPS protein present in glyphosate-tolerant wheat poses negligible risk to humans, livestock, and wildlife. Risk for mutated AHAS protein in imidazolinone-tolerant wheat most likely would be low, but there are not sufficient effect and exposure data to adequately characterize risk. Environmental risks for herbicides were more amenable to quantitative assessments than for the transgenic CP4 EPSPS protein and the mutated AHAS protein.

On risk and plant-based biopharmaceuticals.

Research into plant-based expression of pharmaceutical proteins is proceeding at a blistering pace. Indeed, plants expressing pharmaceutical proteins are currently being grown in field environments throughout the USA. But how are these plants and proteins being assessed for environmental risk and how are they being regulated? Here, we examine the applicability of the risk assessment paradigm for assessing human and ecological risks from field-grown transgenic plants that express pharmaceutical proteins.

The probabilistic economic injury level: incorporating uncertainty into pest management decision-making.

Despite the recognition that the economic injury level (EIL) is determined by dynamic biological and economic parameters, which can be highly variable and uncertain, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty and to use estimates of uncertainty in the determination of EILs. In this paper, we define the probabilistic EIL (PEIL) and develop PEILs for two insect pest scenarios: alfalfa weevil larvae, Hypera postica (Gyllenhal), on early bud-stage alfalfa, and bean leaf beetle adults, Cerotoma trifurcata (Forster), on V1-stage soybean. The PEIL is an EIL that reflects its probability of occurrence. The probability of occurrence is determined by incorporating the uncertainty associated with the input variables used to calculate the EIL. We used Monte Carlo simulation, a random sampling technique in which each input variable in the model was sampled repeatedly from a range of possible values based on probability distributions. Each input variable's probability distribution was sampled such that the distribution's shape was reproduced. Then, the variability for each input was propagated into the output of the model so that the model output reflected the probability of values that could occur. This represents the first use of the Monte Carlo technique to determine EILs.