Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains. METHODS: This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022. RESULTS: Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

Effects of in-store marketing on food and beverage purchases: a longitudinal study of households with children.

OBJECTIVE: Most food retailers display foods in prominent locations as a marketing strategy (i.e. 'placement promotions'). We examined the extent to which households with children change their food and beverage purchases in response to these promotions. DESIGN: We analysed a novel dataset of all products promoted in two supermarkets from 2016 to 2017, including promotion dates and locations (e.g. aisle endcaps and front registers). We linked promotions to all purchases from the supermarkets from 2016 to 2017 by a cohort of households with children. We calculated the number of weekly promotions in each of thirteen food and beverage groups (e.g. bread; candy) and used fixed effects regressions to estimate associations between number of weekly promotions and households' weekly food purchases, overall and by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation. SETTING: Two large supermarkets in Maine, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred and twenty-one households with children. RESULTS: Most promotions (74 %) were for less healthy foods. The most promoted food groups were sweet and salty snacks (mean = 131·0 promotions/week), baked goods (mean = 68·2) and sugar-sweetened beverages (mean = 41·6). Households generally did not change their food group purchases during weeks when they were exposed to more promotions for those groups, except that a 1-sd increase in endcap candy promotions (about 1 promotion/week) was associated with $0·19/week (about 14·5 %) increase in candy purchases among SNAP nonparticipants (adjusted P < 0·001). CONCLUSIONS: In-store placement promotions for food groups were generally not associated with purchases of promoted food groups, perhaps because exposure to unhealthy food marketing was consistently high. Substantial changes to in-store food marketing may be needed to promote healthier purchases.

Philadelphia Beverage Tax and Association With Prices, Purchasing, and Individual-Level Substitution in a National Pharmacy Chain.

Importance: Taxes on sweetened beverages are being implemented around the globe; an understanding of these taxes on individual-level behavior is necessary. Objective: To evaluate the degree to which the sweetened beverage tax in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, was associated with changes in beverage prices and individual-level purchasing over time at a national pharmacy chain in Philadelphia compared with Baltimore, Maryland. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a difference-in-differences approach and generalized linear mixed models, this cohort study examined beverage purchases made by loyalty cardholders at a national chain pharmacy retailer with stores in Philadelphia and Baltimore (control city) from before tax to after tax. Beverage sales (in US dollars) were linked by unique loyalty card numbers to enable longitudinal analyses. Data were collected from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2017 (2 years before tax and 1 year after tax); data analyses were conducted from January through October 2022. Exposure: Implementation of Philadelphia's 1.5 cents/oz tax on sweetened beverages. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcomes were the change in mean beverage price per-ounce and mean beverage volume purchased per cardholder transaction. Individual-level point-of-sale scanner data from all beverage purchases were analyzed. Results: A total of 1188 unique beverages were purchased from the same stores before tax and after tax. There were 231 065 unique cardholders in Philadelphia and 82 517 in Baltimore. Mean prices of taxed beverages (n = 2 094 220) increased by 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3-2.0) cents/oz (106.7% pass-through) in Philadelphia compared with Baltimore from before tax to after tax. Philadelphia cardholders purchased 7.8% (95% CI -8.1% to -7.5%) fewer ounces of taxed beverages and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.7%) more ounces of nontaxed beverages per transaction. Taxed beverages made up a smaller percentage of cardholders' overall beverage purchases after tax (-13.4% [95% CI, -14.2% to -12.6%]), while nontaxed beverages made up a larger share (9.3% [95% CI, 7.7%-10.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cohort study of the Philadelphia beverage tax, the tax was completely passed through to prices and was associated with a 7.8% decline in ounces of taxed beverages purchased at a national pharmacy chain.

Different operationalizations of the 2018 WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The standardized scoring system assessing adherence to the 2018 World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF)/American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) cancer prevention recommendations assigns equal weight for each recommendation, thereby giving higher weight to dietary factors collectively (5 points) than adiposity (1 point) and physical activity (1 point). An alternative score assigning equal weights to the adiposity, physical activity, alcohol, and other dietary (composite) recommendations may better predict cancer associations. METHODS: We examined associations between standardized and alternative scores with cancer risk in two US prospective cohorts. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: During 28 years of follow-up, 16,342 incident cancer cases in women and 8729 cases in men occurred. Individuals in the highest versus lowest quintile of the standardized score had a reduced overall cancer risk (women: HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94; men: HR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.94). Results were slightly stronger for the alternative score (women: HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79, 0.87; men: HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.86). Similar patterns were observed for obesity-related, alcohol-related, smoking-related, and digestive system cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Greater adherence to the WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations was associated with lower cancer risk. A score assigning equal weights to the adiposity, physical activity, alcohol, and all remaining diet components yielded stronger associations than the standardized score.

Changes in Dental Outcomes After Implementation of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax.

INTRODUCTION: Beverage taxes are associated with declines in sugar-sweetened beverage sales and consumption, but few studies have evaluated the associations of these taxes with health outcomes. This study analyzed changes in dental decay after the implementation of the Philadelphia sweetened beverage tax. METHODS: Electronic dental record data were obtained on 83,260 patients living in Philadelphia and control areas from 2014 to 2019. Difference-in-differences analyses compared the number of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Teeth with that of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Surfaces before (January 2014-December 2016) and after (January 2019-December 2019) tax implementation in Philadelphia and control patients. Analyses were conducted in older children/adults (aged ≥15 years) and younger children (aged <15 years). Subgroup analyses stratified by Medicaid status. Analyses were conducted in 2022. RESULTS: The number of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Teeth did not change after tax implementation in Philadelphia in panel analyses of older children/adults (difference-in-differences= -0.02, 95% CI= -0.08, 0.03) or younger children (difference-in-differences=0.07, 95% CI= -0.08, 0.23). There were similarly no post-tax changes in the number of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Surfaces. However, in cross-sectional samples of patients on Medicaid, the number of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Teeth was lower after tax implementation in older children/adults (difference-in-differences= -0.18, 95% CI= -0.34, -0.03; -22% decline) and younger children (difference-in-differences= -0.22, 95% CI= -0.46, 0.01; -30% decline), with similar results for number of new Decayed, Missing, and Filled Surfaces. CONCLUSIONS: The Philadelphia beverage tax was not associated with reduced tooth decay in the general population, but it was associated with reduced tooth decay in adults and children on Medicaid, suggesting potential health benefits for low-income populations.

In-Store Marketing and Supermarket Purchases: Associations Overall and by Transaction SNAP Status.

INTRODUCTION: In-store placement promotions are used widely in supermarkets, but their effects on customer purchases remain largely unknown. This study examined associations of supermarket placement promotions with customer purchases overall and by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit use. METHODS: Data on in-store promotions (e.g., endcaps, checkout displays) and transactions (n=274,118,338) were obtained from a New England supermarket chain with 179 stores from 2016 to 2017. Product-level analyses examined multivariable-adjusted changes in products' sales when they were promoted (versus not) across all transactions and stratified by whether the transaction was paid for with SNAP benefits. Food group-level analyses examined the extent to which a 20% increase from the mean number of weekly promotions for a food group (e.g., increasing the number of candy promotions from 17.0 to 20.4) was associated with total food group sales. Analyses were conducted in 2022. RESULTS: Across stores, the mean (SD) number of promotions per week was highest for sweet/salty snacks (126.3 [22.6]), baked goods (67.5 [18.4]), and sugar-sweetened beverages (48.6 [13.8]) and lowest for beans (5.0 [2.6]) and fruits (6.6 [3.3]). Product sales were between 16% (low-calorie drinks) and 136% (candy) higher when promoted versus not promoted. In 14 of 15 food groups, associations were stronger among transactions made with SNAP benefits than among those not made with SNAP benefits. The number of in-store promotions was generally not associated with total food group sales. CONCLUSIONS: In-store promotions, which were mostly for unhealthy foods, were associated with large product sales increases, particularly among SNAP purchasers. Policies limiting unhealthy in-store promotions and incentivizing healthy promotions should be explored.

Assessment of Calories Purchased After Calorie Labeling of Prepared Foods in a Large Supermarket Chain.

Importance: Calorie labels for prepared (ie, ready-to-eat) foods are required in large chain food establishments in the US. Large evaluations in restaurants suggest small declines in purchases of prepared foods after labeling, but to the authors' knowledge, no studies have examined how this policy influences supermarket purchases. Objective: To estimate changes in calories purchased from prepared foods and potential packaged substitutes compared with control foods after calorie labeling of prepared foods in supermarkets. Design, Setting, and Participants: This controlled interrupted time series compared sales 2 years before labeling implementation (April 2015-April 2017) with sales 7 months after labeling implementation (May 2017-December 2017). Data from 173 supermarkets from a supermarket chain with locations in Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont were analyzed from March 2020 to May 2022. Intervention: Implementation of calorie labeling of prepared foods in April 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Purchased items were classified as prepared foods, potential packaged substitutes for prepared foods, or all other (ie, control) foods. The primary outcome was mean weekly calories per transaction purchased from prepared foods, and the secondary outcome was mean weekly calories per transaction purchased from similar packaged items (for substitution analyses). Analyses of prepared and packaged foods were stratified by food category (bakery, entrées and sides, or deli meats and cheeses). Results: Among the included 173 supermarkets, calorie labeling was associated with a mean 5.1% decrease (95% CI, -5.8% to -4.4%) in calories per transaction purchased from prepared bakery items and an 11.0% decrease (95% CI, -11.9% to -10.1%) from prepared deli items, adjusted for changes in control foods; no changes were observed for prepared entrées and sides (change = 0.3%; 95% CI, -2.5% to 3.0%). Labeling was also associated with decreased calories per transaction purchased from packaged bakery items (change = -3.9%; 95% CI, -4.3% to -3.6%), packaged entrées and sides (change = -1.2%; 95% CI, -1.4% to -0.9%), and packaged deli items (change = -2.1%; 95% CI, -2.4% to -1.7%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal study of supermarkets, calorie labeling of prepared foods was associated with small to moderate decreases in calories purchased from prepared bakery and deli items without evidence of substitution to similar packaged foods.

Sustained Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Beverage Prices and Sales Over 2 Years.

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear whether changes in beverage price and sales after beverage tax implementation can be sustained long term. This study aims to quantify the changes in beverage prices and sales in large retailers 2 years after the implementation of the 1.5 cents per ounce Philadelphia beverage tax. METHODS: Data on price and volume sales of beverages and potential food substitutes were collected from 109 supermarkets, 45 mass merchandizers, and 350 pharmacies in Philadelphia, Baltimore (control), and Pennsylvania ZIP codes bordering Philadelphia (to investigate potential cross-border shopping for tax avoidance). Difference-in-differences analyses compared beverage prices and volume sales in the year before tax implementation (2016) to 2 years after (2018). Data were analyzed in 2020-2021. RESULTS: Difference-in-differences analyses found that after tax implementation, taxed beverage prices in Philadelphia increased by 1.02 cents per ounce (95% CI=0.94, 1.11; 68% pass through), and taxed beverage volume sales in stores decreased by 50% (95% CI=36%, 61%). After accounting for cross-border shopping, taxed beverage volume sales decreased in Philadelphia by 35% in 2018. Volume sales of nontaxed beverages did not change after tax implementation (difference-in-differences=4%, 95% CI= -3%, 12%). Volume sales of nontaxed beverage concentrates increased on average by 34% (95% CI=19%, 51%), but there was no evidence of substitution to high-calorie foods. CONCLUSIONS: There was a large reduction in taxed beverage volume sales 2 years after Philadelphia tax implementation, even after accounting for cross-border shopping. Increases in nontaxed beverage concentrate sales likely partially offset this decline, but there was no evidence of post-tax food substitution.

Calorie Labeling and Product Reformulation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Supermarket-Prepared Foods.

INTRODUCTION: The 2010 Affordable Care Act required chain retail food establishments, including supermarkets, to post calorie information for prepared (i.e., ready to eat) foods. Implementation of calorie labeling could spur companies to reduce the calorie content of prepared foods, but few studies have explored this. This study evaluates the changes in the calorie content of prepared foods at 2 large U.S. supermarket chains after they implemented calorie labels in April 2017. METHODS: The chains (≈1,200 stores) provided data on the calorie content and labeling status of all items sold between July 2015 and January 2019. In 2021, analyses used a difference-in-differences approach to examine the changes in the calorie content of prepared bakery, entree, and deli items introduced before calorie labeling to those introduced after the labeling compared with changes in similar foods not subject to the new labeling requirement. Primary analyses examined continuously available items; exploratory analyses examined items newly introduced to the marketplace. RESULTS: Relative to changes in comparison foods not subject to the labeling requirement, continuously available prepared bakery items decreased by 7.7 calories per item after calorie labels were implemented (95% CI= -12.9, -2.5, p=0.004, ≈0.5% reduction). In exploratory analyses, prepared bakery items introduced after calorie labeling contained 440 fewer calories per item than those introduced before calorie labeling (95% CI= -773.9, -106.1, p=0.01, ≈27% reduction), driven by reductions in product size. No changes were observed in the calorie content of continuously available or newly introduced prepared entrees or deli items. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing calorie labels could encourage product reformulation among some types of prepared supermarket foods. These supply-side changes could lead to reductions in caloric intake.

Adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research 2018 Recommendations for Cancer Prevention and Risk of Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) 2018 diet, nutrition, and physical activity recommendations aim to reduce cancer risk. We examined adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations and colorectal cancer risk in two prospective cohorts. METHODS: We followed 68,977 women in the Nurses' Health Study and 45,442 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study from 1986 until 2012. We created cumulatively averaged WCRF/AICR scores using updated diet, adiposity, and physical activity data from questionnaires, and used Cox regression to estimate sex-specific HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident colorectal cancer. RESULTS: We documented 2,449 colorectal cancer cases. Men in the highest quintile of the WCRF/AICR lifestyle score had a lower risk of colorectal cancer compared with those in the lowest quintile (HRQ5vsQ1 = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.52-0.77). The result was weaker in women (HRQ5vsQ1 = 0.86; 95% CI, 0.72-1.02; P heterogeneity by sex = 0.006). When analyzing the diet recommendations alone, we similarly observed stronger inverse associations in men (HRQ5vsQ1 = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.90) compared with women (HRQ5vsQ1 = 0.93; 95% CI, 0.77-1.12; P heterogeneity by sex = 0.06). In men, the lifestyle score was more strongly inversely associated with risk of distal colon cancer compared with proximal colon or rectal cancer (P common effects = 0.03); we did not observe significant differences between anatomic locations in women. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations are associated with lower colorectal cancer risk in men, with weaker results in women. IMPACT: Consideration of adiposity and physical activity in conjunction with diet is important for colorectal cancer prevention.