Understanding random resampling techniques for class imbalance correction and their consequences on calibration and discrimination of clinical risk prediction models.

OBJECTIVE: Class imbalance is sometimes considered a problem when developing clinical prediction models and assessing their performance. To address it, correction strategies involving manipulations of the training dataset, such as random undersampling or oversampling, are frequently used. The aim of this article is to illustrate the consequences of these class imbalance correction strategies on clinical prediction models' internal validity in terms of calibration and discrimination performances. METHODS: We used both heuristic intuition and formal mathematical reasoning to characterize the relations between conditional probabilities of interest and probabilities targeted when using random undersampling or oversampling. We propose a plug-in estimator that represents a natural correction for predictions obtained from models that have been trained on artificially balanced datasets ("naïve" models). We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation with two different data generation processes and present a real-world example using data from the International Stroke Trial database to empirically demonstrate the consequences of applying random resampling techniques for class imbalance correction on calibration and discrimination (in terms of Area Under the ROC, AUC) for logistic regression and tree-based prediction models. RESULTS: Across our simulations and in the real-world example, calibration of the naïve models was very poor. The models using the plug-in estimator generally outperformed the models relying on class imbalance correction in terms of calibration while achieving the same discrimination performance. CONCLUSION: Random resampling techniques for class imbalance correction do not generally improve discrimination performance (i.e., AUC), and their use is hard to justify when aiming at providing calibrated predictions. Improper use of such class imbalance correction techniques can lead to suboptimal data usage and less valid risk prediction models.

Estimation of migraine prevalence considering active and inactive states across different age groups.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a very common headache disorder on the population level, characterized by symptomatic attacks (activity). For many people with migraine, the migraine symptoms intermittently or permanently cease during their lifetime (inactive migraine). The current diagnostic classification of migraine considers two states: active migraine (having migraine symptoms within the last year) and not having active migraine (including both individuals with inactive migraine and those who never had migraine). Defining a state of inactive migraine that has gone into remission may better capture the trajectories of migraine across the lifespan and contribute to a better understanding of its biological processes. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of never, active, and inactive migraine separately, using modern prevalence and incidence estimation methodology to better describe the complexity of migraine trajectories at the population level. METHODS: Using a multistate modeling approach, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, and results from a population-based study, we estimated the transition rates by which individuals moved between migraine disease states and estimated prevalences of never, active and inactive migraine. We used data from the GBD project and a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people with a starting age of 30 and 30 years of follow-up, both in Germany and globally, stratified by sex. RESULTS: In Germany, the estimated rate of transition from active to inactive migraine (remission rate) increased after the age of 22.5 in women and 27.5 in men. The pattern for men in Germany was similar to the one observed on the global level. The prevalence of inactive migraine among women reaches 25.7% in Germany and 16.5% globally at age 60. For men, the inactive migraine prevalence estimates at the same age were 10.4% in Germany and 7.1% globally. CONCLUSIONS: Considering an inactive migraine state explicitly reflects a different epidemiological picture of migraine across the lifecourse. We have demonstrated that many women of older ages may be in an inactive migraine state. Many pressing research questions can only be answered if population-based cohort studies collect information not only on active migraine but also on inactive migraine states.

Economic Evaluation of a Mobile Stroke Unit Service in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Lower global disability and higher quality of life among ischemic stroke patients was found to be associated with the dispatch of mobile stroke units (MSUs) among patients eligible for recanalizing treatments in the Berlin_Prehospital Or Usual Delivery of stroke care (B_PROUD) study. The current study assessed the cost-utility and cost-effectiveness of additional MSU dispatch using data from this prospective, controlled, intervention study. METHODS: Outcomes considered in the economic evaluation included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the 3-level version of EQ-5D (EQ-5D-3L) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores for functional outcomes 3-months after stroke. Costs were prospectively collected during the study by the MSU provider (Berlin Fire Brigade) and the B_PROUD research team. We focus our results on the societal perspective. As we aimed to determine the economic consequences of the intervention beyond the study's follow-up period, both care costs and QALYs were extrapolated over 5 years. RESULTS: The additional MSU dispatch resulted in an incremental €40,984 per QALY. The best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario yielded additional costs of, respectively, €24,470.76 and €61,690.88 per QALY. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, MSU dispatch resulted in incremental costs of €81,491 per survival without disability. The best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario yielded additional costs of, respectively, €44,455.30 and €116,491.15 per survival without disability. INTERPRETATION: Among patients eligible for recanalizing treatments in ischemic stroke, MSU dispatch was associated with both higher QALYs and higher costs and is cost-effective when considering internationally accepted thresholds ranging from an additional €40,000 to €80,000 per QALY. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:942-951.

Access, referral, service provision and management of individuals with primary progressive aphasia: A survey of speech-language therapists in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Italy, approximately 650 individuals receive a diagnosis of primary progressive aphasia (PPA) every year. Unfortunately, the frequency with which patients are referred to speech-language services is suboptimal, likely due to skepticism regarding the value of speech-language therapy in the context of neurodegeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a virtual survey of speech and language therapists (SLTs) across Italy, to collect information about the assessment, intervention and management of patients with PPA. To ensure that as many SLTs as possible received the survey, the Italian Federation of SLTs (Federazione Logopedisti Italiani, FLI) aided in disseminating the survey. RESULTS: In total, 336 respondents participated in the online survey, 140 of whom had previous experience with PPA patients. Respondents indicated having seen a total of 428 PPA patients in the previous 24 months (three patients on average, range: 0-40). SLTs who reported never working with PPA identified underdiagnoses, low referral rates and the rarity of the clinical syndrome as major reasons for their lack of experience with PPA. SLTs with experience working with PPA indicated that patients may not have accessed services because of service dysfunction and geographical barriers. Respondents reported using informal interviews during assessments and tests developed for post-stroke aphasia, while impairment-based/restitutive interventions were utilised most often. CONCLUSION: Findings may serve to inform health policy organisations regarding the current shortcomings and needed recommendations for improving the care of individuals with PPA in Italy. Improving awareness of the utility of rehabilitation among SLTs and other clinical service providers may serve to facilitate access to intervention, which in turn will serve to better support individuals living with PPA. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: What is already known on the subject Speech and language therapists (SLTs) play a crucial role in the assessment, diagnosis and treatment of people with primary progressive aphasia (PPA). However, the frequency with which individuals with PPA are referred for speech and language services is suboptimal due to skepticism regarding the value of speech and language therapy in the context of neurodegeneration, the scarcity of SLTs with expertise in the treatment of PPA and the lack of awareness of the SLT role amongst referrers. What this paper adds to existing knowledge In recognition of the lack of published information on the provision of speech and language therapy services and clinicians' approaches to the assessment and treatment of individuals with PPA in Italy, we conducted an online survey to evaluate the current referral patterns for speech and language therapy services and to examine the current barriers to access these services for individuals with PPA in Italy. What are the potential or actual clinical implications of this work? The data presented here support that SLTs view treatment as useful for individuals with PPA and other professional figures and may serve to improve access to intervention, which in turn will serve to better support individuals living with PPA. The results highlight the need to inform health policy organisations about current gaps and aid in developing recommendations for improving the care of individuals with PPA, in order to understand how SLTs can best support individuals with PPA and their families.

Incidence, prevalence and disability associated with neurological disorders in Italy between 1990 and 2019: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Neurological conditions are highly prevalent and disabling, in particular in the elderly. The Italian population has witnessed sharp ageing and we can thus expect a rising trend in the incidence, prevalence and disability of these conditions. METHODS: We relied on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to extract Italian data on incidence, prevalence and years lived with a disability (YLDs) referred to a broad set of neurological disorders including, brain and nervous system cancers, stroke, encephalitis, meningitis, tetanus, traumatic brain injury, and spinal cord injury. We assessed changes between 1990 and 2019 in counts and age-standardized rates. RESULTS: The most prevalent conditions were tension-type headache, migraine, and dementias, whereas the most disabling were migraine, dementias and traumatic brain injury. YLDs associated with neurological conditions increased by 22.5%, but decreased by 2.3% in age-standardized rates. The overall increase in prevalence and YLDs counts was stronger for non-communicable diseases with onset in old age compared to young to adult-age onset ones. The same trends were in the opposite direction when age-standardized rates were taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in YLDs associated with neurological conditions is mostly due to population ageing and growth: nevertheless, lived disability and, as a consequence, impact on health systems has increased. Actions are needed to improve outcome and mitigate disability associated with neurological conditions, spanning among diagnosis, treatment, care pathways and workplace interventions.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Descriptive Epidemiology: The Origin of Geographic Difference.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) epidemiology has rapidly developed in the last 30 years alongside the evolving changes in concepts in the field of clinical ALS and also due to the recent proposals of new classification system for motor neuron diseases. Many of these changes in the clinical scenario have been determined through the results of ALS population-based studies conducted in the last 20 years primarily in Europe. All the evidences converge to show that ALS risk is different across continents and ethnicities. In a European registry consortium named EURALS, ALS incident cases were drawn from a source population comprising almost 24 million people across Europe (ALS cases: 1028) and the estimated incidence was 2.2 per 100,000 person-years (py) for the general population. In contrast, other population-based studies have measured the lowest incidence in East Asia to be 0.89 per 100,000 py and in South Asia to be 0.79 per 100,000 py. A large part of Africa, Latin America and Asia does not have any population-based studies. The origin of geographic difference in ALS incidence is a matter of debate. Probably, this is partly due to genes (C9ORF72) and partly due to environmental risk factors. The rapid disappearance of ALS Foci in Guam, Kii, and West Guinea underline the importance of changes in lifestyle and environmental factors. The Global Burden of Disease, a project aiming to describe the burden of all diseases and injuries across all the countries of the world with a standardized protocol, has collected heterogeneous sources of data to estimate the burden of motor neuron diseases. The demographic changes related to increased expectation of life and the growth of the world population indicate that the load of motor neuron disease is rapidly moving toward 400 thousand prevalent cases. The burden is expected to shift toward Asia and Africa in the next decades for the rapid increase of expectation of life of countries with high demographic impact.