The met and unmet health needs for HIV, hypertension, and diabetes in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: analysis of a cross-sectional multimorbidity survey.

BACKGROUND: The convergence of infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases in South Africa is challenging to health systems. In this analysis, we assessed the multimorbidity health needs of individuals and communities in rural KwaZulu-Natal and established a framework to quantify met and unmet health needs for individuals living with infectious and non-communicable diseases. METHODS: We analysed data collected between May 25, 2018, and March 13, 2020, from participants of a large, community-based, cross-sectional multimorbidity survey (Vukuzazi) that offered community-based HIV, hypertension, and diabetes screening to all residents aged 15 years or older in a surveillance area in the uMkhanyakude district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data from the Vukuzazi survey were linked with data from demographic and health surveillance surveys with a unique identifier common to both studies. Questionnaires were used to assess the diagnosed health conditions, treatment history, general health, and sociodemographic characteristics of an individual. For each condition (ie, HIV, hypertension, and diabetes), individuals were defined as having no health needs (absence of condition), met health needs (condition that is well controlled), or one or more unmet health needs (including diagnosis, engagement in care, or treatment optimisation). We analysed met and unmet health needs for individual and combined conditions and investigated their geospatial distribution. FINDINGS: Of 18 041 participants who completed the survey (12 229 [67·8%] were female and 5812 [32·2%] were male), 9898 (54·9%) had at least one of the three chronic diseases measured. 4942 (49·9%) of these 9898 individuals had at least one unmet health need (1802 [18·2%] of 9898 needed treatment optimisation, 1282 [13·0%] needed engagement in care, and 1858 [18·8%] needed a diagnosis). Unmet health needs varied by disease; 1617 (93·1%) of 1737 people who screened positive for diabetes, 2681 (58·2%) of 4603 people who screened positive for hypertension, and 1321 (21·7%) of 6096 people who screened positive for HIV had unmet health needs. Geospatially, met health needs for HIV were widely distributed and unmet health needs for all three conditions had specific sites of concentration; all three conditions had an overlapping geographical pattern for the need for diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Although people living with HIV predominantly have a well controlled condition, there is a high burden of unmet health needs for people living with hypertension and diabetes. In South Africa, adapting current, widely available HIV care services to integrate non-communicable disease care is of high priority. FUNDING: Fogarty International Center and the National Institutes of Health, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Innovation, the South African Medical Research Council, the South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, and the Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Evaluating use of mass-media communication intervention 'MTV-Shuga' on increased awareness and demand for HIV and sexual health services by adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of exposure to MTV Shuga:Down South' (MTVShuga-DS) during the scale-up of combination HIV-prevention interventions on awareness and uptake of sexual reproductive health (SRH) and HIV-prevention services by adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). DESIGN: One longitudinal and three cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of AGYW. SETTING: AGYW in four South African districts with high HIV prevalence (>10%) (May 2017 and September 2019). PARTICIPANTS: 6311 AGYW aged 12-24. MEASURES: Using logistic regression, we measured the relationship between exposure to MTV Shuga-DS and awareness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), condom use at last sex, uptake of HIV-testing or contraception, and incident pregnancy or herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) infection. RESULTS: Within the rural cohort 2184 (85.5%) of eligible sampled individuals were enrolled, of whom 92.6% had at least one follow-up visit; the urban cross-sectional surveys enrolled 4127 (22.6%) of eligible sampled individuals. Self-report of watching at least one MTV Shuga-DS episode was 14.1% (cohort) and 35.8% (cross-section), while storyline recall was 5.5% (cohort) and 6.7% (cross-section). In the cohort, after adjustment (for HIV-prevention intervention-exposure, age, education, socioeconomic status), MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.06, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.70), contraception uptake (aOR 2.08, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.98) and consistent condom use (aOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.93), but not with HIV testing (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.21) or acquiring HSV-2 (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.38). In the cross-sections, MTVShuga-DS was associated with greater PrEP awareness (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.43), but no other outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Among both urban and rural AGYW in South Africa, MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness and improved demand for some HIV prevention and SRH technologies but not sexual health outcomes. However, exposure to MTVShuga-DS was low. Given these positive indications, supportive programming may be required to raise exposure and allow future evaluation of edu-drama impact in this setting.

Costs and economies of scale in repeated home-based HIV counselling and testing: Evidence from the ANRS 12249 treatment as prevention trial in South Africa.

Universal HIV testing is now recommended in generalised HIV epidemic settings. Although home-based HIV counselling and testing (HB-HCT) has been shown to be effective in achieving high levels of HIV status awareness, little is still known about the cost implications of universal and repeated HB-HCT. We estimated the costs of repeated HB-HCT and the scale economies that can be obtained when increasing the population coverage of the intervention. We used primary data from the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention (TasP) trial in rural South Africa (2012-2016), whose testing component included six-monthly repeated HB-HCT. We relied on the dynamic system generalised method of moments (GMM) approach to produce unbiased short- and long-run estimates of economies of scale, using the number of contacts made by HIV counsellors for HB-HCT as the scale variable. We also estimated the mediating effect of the contact quality - measured as the proportion of HIV tests performed among all contacts eligible for an HIV test - on scale economies. The mean cost (standard deviation) of universal and repeated HB-HCT was $24.2 (13.7) per contact, $1694.3 (1527.8) per new HIV diagnosis, and $269.2 (279.0) per appropriate referral to HIV care. The GMM estimations revealed the presence of economies of scale, with a 1% increase in the number of contacts for HB-HCT leading to a 0.27% decrease in the mean cost. Our results also suggested a significant long-run relationship between mean cost and scale, with a 1% increase in the scale leading to a 0.36% decrease in mean cost in the long run. Overall, we showed that significant cost savings can be made from increasing population coverage. Nevertheless, there is a risk that this gain is made at the expense of quality: the higher the quality of HB-HCT activities, the lower the economies of scale.

A Rapid Drug Resistance Genotyping Workflow for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Using Targeted Isothermal Amplification and Nanopore Sequencing.

Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) for tuberculosis (TB) requires weeks to yield results. Although molecular tests rapidly detect drug resistance-associated mutations (DRMs), they are not scalable to cover the full genome and the many DRMs that can predict resistance. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) methods are scalable, but if conducted directly on sputum, typically require a target enrichment step, such as nucleic acid amplification. We developed a targeted isothermal amplification-nanopore sequencing workflow for rapid prediction of drug resistance of TB isolates. We used recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) to perform targeted isothermal amplification (37°C for 90 min) of three regions within the Mycobacterium tuberculosis genome, followed by nanopore sequencing on the MinION. We tested 29 mycobacterial genomic DNA extracts from patients with drug-resistant (DR) TB and compared our results to those of WGS by Illumina and phenotypic DST to evaluate the accuracy of prediction of resistance to rifampin and isoniazid. Amplification by RPA showed fidelity equivalent to that of high-fidelity PCR (100% concordance). Nanopore sequencing generated DRM predictions identical to those of WGS, with considerably faster sequencing run times of minutes rather than days. The sensitivity and specificity of rifampin resistance prediction for our workflow were 96.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 81.0 to 99.9%) and 100.0% (95% CI, 15.8 to 100.0%), respectively. For isoniazid resistance prediction, the sensitivity and specificity were 100.0% (95% CI, 86.3 to 100.0%) and 100.0% (95% CI, 39.8 to 100.0%), respectively. The workflow consumable costs per sample are less than £100. Our rapid and low-cost drug resistance genotyping workflow provides accurate prediction of rifampin and isoniazid resistance, making it appropriate for use in resource-limited settings. IMPORTANCE Current methods for diagnosing drug-resistant tuberculosis are time consuming, resulting in delays in patients receiving treatment and in transmission onwards. They also require a high level of laboratory infrastructure, which is often only available at centralized facilities, resulting in further delays to diagnosis and additional barriers to deployment in resource-limited settings. This article describes a new workflow that can diagnose drug-resistant TB in a shorter time, with less equipment, and for a lower price than current methods. The amount of TB DNA is first increased without the need for bulky and costly thermocycling equipment. The DNA is then read using a portable sequencer called a MinION, which indicates whether there are tell-tale changes in the DNA that indicate whether the TB strain is drug resistant. Our workflow could play an important role in the future in the fight against the public health challenge that is TB drug resistance.

Updated assessment of risks and benefits of dolutegravir versus efavirenz in new antiretroviral treatment initiators in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform treatment guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens. METHODS: We updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. FINDINGS: Considering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain. INTERPRETATION: In the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

No effect of test and treat on sexual behaviours at population level in rural South Africa.

CONTEXT: Within the community-randomized ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention trial conducted in rural South Africa, we analysed sexual behaviours stratified by sex over time, comparing immediate antiretroviral therapy irrespective of CD4+ cell count vs. CD4+-guided antiretroviral therapy (start at CD4+ cell count > 350 cells/µl then >500 cells/µl) arms. METHODS: As part of the 6-monthly home-based trial rounds, a sexual behaviour individual questionnaire was administered to all residents at least 16 years. We considered seven indicators: sexual intercourse in the past month; at least one regular sexual partner in the past 6 months; at least one casual sexual partner in the past 6 months and more than one sexual partner in the past 6 months; condom use at last sex (CLS) with regular partner, CLS with casual partner, and point prevalence estimate of concurrency. We conducted repeated cross-sectional analyses, stratified by sex. Generalized Estimating Equations models were used, including trial arm, trial time, calendar time and interaction between trial arm and trial time. RESULTS: CLS with regular partner varied between 29-51% and 23-46% for men and women, respectively, with significantly lower odds among women in the control vs. intervention arm by trial end (P < 0.001). CLS with casual partner among men showed a significant interaction between arm and trial round, with no consistent pattern. Women declared more than one partner in the past 6 months in less than 1% of individual questionnaires; among men, rates varied between 5-12%, and odds significantly and continuously declined between calendar rounds 1 and 7 [odds ratio = 4.2 (3.24-5.45)]. CONCLUSION: Universal Test and Treat was not associated with increased sexual risk behaviours.

"If you are here at the clinic, you do not know how many people need help in the community": Perspectives of home-based HIV services from health care workers in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the era of universal test-and-treat.

BACKGROUND: Limited engagement in clinic-based care is affecting the HIV response. We explored the field experiences and perceptions of local health care workers regarding home-based strategies as opportunities to improve the cascade of care of people living with HIV in rural South Africa as part of a Universal Test-and-Treat approach. METHODS: In Hlabisa sub-district, home-based HIV services, including rapid HIV testing and counselling, and support for linkage to and retention in clinic-based HIV care, were implemented by health care workers within the ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention (TasP) trial. From April to July 2016, we conducted a mixed-methods study among health care workers from the TasP trial and from local government clinics, using self-administrated questionnaires (n = 90 in the TasP trial, n = 56 in government clinics), semi-structured interviews (n = 13 in the TasP trial, n = 5 in government clinics) and three focus group discussions (n = 6-10 health care workers of the TasP trial per group). Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and qualitative data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: More than 90% of health care workers assessed home-based testing and support for linkage to care as feasible and acceptable by the population they serve. Many health care workers underlined how home visits could facilitate reaching people who had slipped through the cracks of the clinic-based health care system and encourage them to successfully access care. Health care workers however expressed concerns about the ability of home-based services to answer the HIV care needs of all community members, including people working outside their home during the day or those who fear HIV-related stigmatization. Overall, health care workers encouraged policy-makers to more formally integrate home-based services in the local health system. They promoted reshaping the disease-specific and care-oriented services towards more comprehensive goals. CONCLUSION: Because home-based services allow identification of people early during their infection and encourage them to take actions leading to viral suppression, HCWs assessed them as valuable components within the panel of UTT interventions, aiming to reach the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets, especially in the rural Southern African region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The registration number of the ANRS 12249 TasP trial on ClinicalTrials.gov is NCT01509508.

HIV Treatment Substantially Decreases Hospitalization Rates: Evidence From Rural South Africa.

The effect of HIV treatment on hospitalization rates for HIV-infected people has never been established. We quantified this effect in a rural South African community for the period 2009-13. We linked clinical data on HIV treatment start dates for more than 2,000 patients receiving care in the public-sector treatment program with five years of longitudinal data on self-reported hospitalizations from a community-based population cohort of more than 100,000 adults. Hospitalization rates peaked during the first year of treatment and were about five times higher, compared to hospitalization rates after four years on treatment. Earlier treatment initiation could save more than US$300,000 per 1,000 patients over the first four years of HIV treatment, freeing up scarce resources. Future studies on the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment should include these effects.

Comparative assessment of five trials of universal HIV testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN: Universal voluntary HIV counselling and testing followed by prompt initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all those diagnosed HIV-infected (universal test and treat, UTT) is now a global health standard. However, its population-level impact, feasibility and cost remain unknown. Five community-based trials have been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa to measure the effects of various UTT strategies at population level: BCPP/YaTsie in Botswana, MaxART in Swaziland, HPTN 071 (PopART) in South Africa and Zambia, SEARCH in Uganda and Kenya and ANRS 12249 TasP in South Africa. This report describes and contrasts the contexts, research methodologies, intervention packages, themes explored, evolution of study designs and interventions related to each of these five UTT trials. METHODS: We conducted a comparative assessment of the five trials using data extracted from study protocols and collected during baseline studies, with additional input from study investigators. We organized differences and commonalities across the trials in five categories: trial contexts, research designs, intervention packages, trial themes and adaptations. RESULTS: All performed in the context of generalized HIV epidemics, the trials highly differ in their social, demographic, economic, political and health systems settings. They share the common aim of assessing the impact of UTT on the HIV epidemic but differ in methodological aspects such as study design and eligibility criteria for trial populations. In addition to universal ART initiation, the trials deliver a wide range of biomedical, behavioural and structural interventions as part of their UTT strategies. The five studies explore common issues, including the uptake rates of the trial services and individual health outcomes. All trials have adapted since their initiation to the evolving political, economic and public health contexts, including adopting the successive national recommendations for ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial commonalities but also differences between the five UTT trials in their design, conduct and multidisciplinary outputs. As empirical literature on how UTT may improve efficiency and quality of HIV care at population level is still scarce, this article provides a foundation for more collaborative research on UTT and supports evidence-based decision making for HIV care in country and internationally.

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. METHODS: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. FINDINGS: A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. INTERPRETATION: A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

Implementing universal HIV treatment in a high HIV prevalence and rural South African setting - Field experiences and recommendations of health care providers.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe the field experiences and recommendations of clinic-based health care providers (HCP) regarding the implementation of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: In Hlabisa sub-district, the local HIV programme of the Department of Health (DoH) is decentralized in 18 clinics, where ART was offered at a CD4 count ≤500 cells/µL from January 2015 to September 2016. Within the ANRS 12249 TasP trial, implemented in part of the sub-district, universal ART (no eligibility criteria) was offered in 11 mobile clinics between March 2012 and June 2016. A cross-sectional qualitative survey was conducted in April-July 2016 among clinic-based nurses and counsellors providing HIV care in the DoH and TasP trial clinics. In total, 13 individual interviews and two focus groups discussions (including 6 and 7 participants) were conducted, audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. RESULTS: All HCPs reported an overall good experience of delivering ART early in the course of HIV infection, with most patients willing to initiate ART before being symptomatic. Yet, HCPs underlined that not feeling sick could challenge early ART initiation and adherence, and thus highlighted the need to take time for counselling as an important component to achieve universal ART. HCPs also foresaw logistical challenges of universal ART, and were especially concerned about increasing workload and ART shortage. HCPs finally recommended the need to strengthen the existing model of care to facilitate access to ART, e.g., community-based and integrated HIV services. CONCLUSIONS: The provision of universal ART is feasible and acceptable according to HCPs in this rural South-African area. However their experiences suggest that universal ART, and more generally the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets, will be difficult to achieve without the implementation of new models of health service delivery.

Impact of HIV Drug Resistance on HIV/AIDS-Associated Mortality, New Infections, and Antiretroviral Therapy Program Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually. Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends. CONCLUSIONS: Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female-male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.

Time and Money: The True Costs of Health Care Utilization for Patients Receiving "Free" HIV/Tuberculosis Care and Treatment in Rural KwaZulu-Natal.

BACKGROUND: HIV and tuberculosis (TB) services are provided free of charge in many sub-Saharan African countries, but patients still incur costs. METHODS: Patient-exit interviews were conducted in primary health care clinics in rural South Africa with representative samples of 200 HIV-infected patients enrolled in a pre-antiretroviral treatment (pre-ART) program, 300 patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 300 patients receiving TB treatment. For each group, we calculated health expenditures across different spending categories, time spent traveling to and using services, and how patients financed their spending. Associations between patient group and costs were assessed in multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Total monthly health expenditures [1 USD = 7.3 South African Rand (ZAR)] were ZAR 171 [95% confidence interval (CI): 134 to 207] for pre-ART, ZAR 164 (95% CI: 141 to 187) for ART, and ZAR 122 (95% CI: 105 to 140) for TB patients (P = 0.01). Total monthly time costs (in hours) were 3.4 (95% CI: 3.3 to 3.5) for pre-ART, 5.0 (95% CI: 4.7 to 5.3) for ART, and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9 to 3.4) for TB patients (P < 0.01). Although overall patient costs were similar across groups, pre-ART patients spent on average ZAR 29.2 more on traditional healers and ZAR 25.9 more on chemists and private doctors than ART patients, whereas ART patients spent ZAR 34.0 more than pre-ART patients on transport to clinics (P < 0.05 for all results). Thirty-one percent of pre-ART, 39% of ART, and 41% of TB patients borrowed money or sold assets to finance health care. CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving nominally free care for HIV/TB face large private costs, commonly leading to financial distress. Subsidized transport, fewer clinic visits, and drug pick-up points closer to home could reduce costs for ART patients, potentially improving retention and adherence. Large expenditure on alternative care among pre-ART patients suggests that transitioning patients to ART earlier, as under HIV treatment-as-prevention policies, may not substantially increase patients' financial burden.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV drug resistance testing to inform switching to second line antiretroviral therapy in low income settings.

BACKGROUND: To guide future need for cheap resistance tests for use in low income settings, we assessed cost-effectiveness of drug resistance testing as part of monitoring of people on first line ART - with switching from first to second line ART being conditional on NNRTI drug resistance mutations being identified. METHODS: An individual level simulation model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which accounts for adherence and resistance development was used to compare outcomes of various potential monitoring strategies in a typical low income setting in sub-Saharan Africa. Underlying monitoring strategies considered were based on clinical disease, CD4 count or viral load. Within each we considered a strategy in which no further measures are performed, one with a viral load measure to confirm failure, and one with both a viral load measure and a resistance test. Predicted outcomes were assessed over 2015-2025 in terms of viral suppression, first line failure, switching to second line regimen, death, HIV incidence, disability-adjusted-life-years averted and costs. Potential future low costs of resistance tests ($30) were used. RESULTS: The most effective strategy, in terms of DALYs averted, was one using viral load monitoring without confirmation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for this strategy was $2113 (the same as that for viral load monitoring with confirmation). ART monitoring strategies which involved resistance testing did not emerge as being more effective or cost effective than strategies not using it. The slightly reduced ART costs resulting from use of resistance testing, due to less use of second line regimens, was of similar magnitude to the costs of resistance tests. CONCLUSION: Use of resistance testing at the time of first line failure as part of the decision whether to switch to second line therapy was not cost-effective, even though the test was assumed to be very inexpensive.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential responses to future high levels of transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral drug-naive populations beginning treatment: modelling study and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: With continued roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, evidence is emerging of increasing levels of transmitted drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different potential public health responses to substantial levels of transmitted drug resistance. METHODS: We created a model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effects of ART, which accounted for resistance generation, transmission, and disappearance of resistance from majority virus in the absence of drug pressure. We simulated 5000 ART programmatic scenarios with different prevalence levels of detectable resistance in people starting ART in 2017 (t0) who had not previously been exposed to antiretroviral drugs. We used the model to predict cost-effectiveness of various potential changes in policy triggered by different prevalence levels of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) measured in the population starting ART. FINDINGS: Individual-level resistance testing before ART initiation was not generally a cost-effective option, irrespective of the cost-effectiveness threshold. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), no change in policy was cost effective (ie, no change in policy would involve paying less than $500 per QALY gained), irrespective of the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance, because of the increased cost of the policy alternatives. At thresholds of $1000 or higher, and with the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance greater than 10%, a policy to measure viral load 6 months after ART initiation became cost effective. The policy option to change the standard first-line treatment to a boosted protease inhibitor regimen became cost effective at a prevalence of NNRTI resistance higher than 15%, for cost-effectiveness thresholds greater than $2000. INTERPRETATION: Cost-effectiveness of potential policies to adopt in response to different levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance depends on competing budgetary claims, reflected in the cost-effectiveness threshold. Results from our model will help inform WHO recommendations on monitoring of HIV drug resistance in people starting ART. FUNDING: WHO (with funds provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), CHAIN (European Commission).

Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir instead of zidovudine for use in first-line antiretroviral therapy in settings without virological monitoring.

BACKGROUND: The most recent World Health Organization (WHO) antiretroviral treatment guidelines recommend the inclusion of zidovudine (ZDV) or tenofovir (TDF) in first-line therapy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with emphasis on emerging patterns of drug resistance upon treatment failure and their impact on second-line therapy. METHODS: We used a stochastic simulation of a generalized HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa to compare two strategies for first-line combination antiretroviral treatment including lamivudine, nevirapine and either ZDV or TDF. Model input parameters were derived from literature and, for the simulation of resistance pathways, estimated from drug resistance data obtained after first-line treatment failure in settings without virological monitoring. Treatment failure and cost effectiveness were determined based on WHO definitions. Two scenarios with optimistic (no emergence; base) and pessimistic (extensive emergence) assumptions regarding occurrence of multidrug resistance patterns were tested. RESULTS: In the base scenario, cumulative proportions of treatment failure according to WHO criteria were higher among first-line ZDV users (median after six years 36% [95% simulation interval 32%; 39%]) compared with first-line TDF users (31% [29%; 33%]). Consequently, a higher proportion initiated second-line therapy (including lamivudine, boosted protease inhibitors and either ZDV or TDF) in the first-line ZDV user group 34% [31%; 37%] relative to first-line TDF users (30% [27%; 32%]). At the time of second-line initiation, a higher proportion (16%) of first-line ZDV users harboured TDF-resistant HIV compared with ZDV-resistant viruses among first-line TDF users (0% and 6% in base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). In the base scenario, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) was US$83 when TDF instead of ZDV was used in first-line therapy (pessimistic scenario: US$ 315), which was below the WHO threshold for high cost effectiveness (US$ 2154). CONCLUSIONS: Using TDF instead of ZDV in first-line treatment in resource-limited settings is very cost-effective and likely to better preserve future treatment options in absence of virological monitoring.

Phylodynamic and phylogeographic patterns of the HIV type 1 subtype F1 parenteral epidemic in Romania.

In the late 1980s an HIV-1 epidemic emerged in Romania that was dominated by subtype F1. The main route of infection is believed to be parenteral transmission in children. We sequenced partial pol coding regions of 70 subtype F1 samples from children and adolescents from the PENTA-EPPICC network of which 67 were from Romania. Phylogenetic reconstruction using the sequences and other publically available global subtype F sequences showed that 79% of Romanian F1 sequences formed a statistically robust monophyletic cluster. The monophyletic cluster was epidemiologically linked to parenteral transmission in children. Coalescent-based analysis dated the origins of the parenteral epidemic to 1983 [1981-1987; 95% HPD]. The analysis also shows that the epidemic's effective population size has remained fairly constant since the early 1990s suggesting limited onward spread of the virus within the population. Furthermore, phylogeographic analysis suggests that the root location of the parenteral epidemic was Bucharest.

Effect on transmission of HIV-1 resistance of timing of implementation of viral load monitoring to determine switches from first to second-line antiretroviral regimens in resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that antiretroviral therapy (ART) use with only clinical monitoring for failure will result in high rates of transmission of virus with resistance to drugs currently in use. METHODS: A stochastic simulation model of transmission of HIV, natural history and the effect of ART, was developed and used to predict the proportion of new infections with resistance according to whether and when viral load monitoring is introduced. RESULTS: In our base model, there was predicted to be 12.4% of new HIV infections with primary antiretroviral resistance in 2020 if clinical monitoring is used throughout, compared with 5.4 and 6.1% if viral load-guided switching (based on viral load measured every 6 months, with switch determined by a value >500 copies/ml) was introduced in 2010 or 2015, respectively. The death rate for those on ART was lowest when viral load monitoring was used, but the overall death rate in all infected people was higher if viral load monitoring was introduced at the expense of scale-up in HIV diagnosis and ART initiation beyond their 2010 coverage levels (4.7 compared with 3.1 per 100 person-years). INTERPRETATION: To preserve current first-line drugs for the long term there is an eventual need for some form of cheap and practical viral load monitoring in resource-limited settings. However, a delay in introduction of 5 years has limited consequences for resistance transmission so the current priority for countries' ART programmes is to increase HIV testing and provide treatment for all those in need of ART.