Optimal timing of delivery for growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis: A decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine the optimal timing of delivery of growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis in the setting of normal umbilical artery (UA) Dopplers. METHODS: We designed a decision analytic model using TreeAge software for a hypothetical cohort of 2000 fetuses with isolated gastroschisis, fetal growth restriction (FGR), and normal UA Dopplers across 34-39 weeks of gestation. This model accounted for costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for the pregnant individual and the neonate. Model outcomes included stillbirth, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), short gut syndrome (SGS), neonatal sepsis, neonatal death, and neurodevelopmental disability (NDD). RESULTS: We found 38 weeks to be the optimal timing of delivery for minimizing overall perinatal mortality and leading to the highest total QALYs. Compared to 37 weeks, delivery at 38 weeks resulted in 367.98 more QALYs, 2.22 more cases of stillbirth, 2.41 fewer cases of RDS, 0.02 fewer cases of NEC, 1.65 fewer cases of IVH, 0.5 fewer cases of SGS, 2.04 fewer cases of sepsis, 11.8 fewer neonatal deaths and 3.37 fewer cases of NDD. However, 39 weeks were the most cost-effective strategy with a savings of $1,053,471 compared to 38 weeks. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that 38 weeks was the optimal gestational age for delivery 51.70% of the time, 39 weeks were optimal 47.40% of the time, and 37 weeks was optimal 0.90% of the time. CONCLUSION: Taking into consideration a range of adverse perinatal outcomes and cost effectiveness, 38-39 weeks gestation is ideal for the delivery of fetuses with gastroschisis, FGR, and normal UA Dopplers. However, there are unique details to consider for each case, and the timing of delivery should be individualized using shared multidisciplinary decision making.

Obstetric management for stillbirth complicated by a prior cesarean delivery: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The primary concern for a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) is a uterine rupture leading to neonatal injury or mortality and maternal mortality. In individuals who have a term stillbirth, the neonatal concern is absent, yet repeat cesarean delivery remains common in this setting. Given the increased maternal risks from cesarean, it is important to evaluate obstetric management options in the population of women who have a term stillbirth and prior cesarean delivery (CD). OBJECTIVES: To examine the outcomes and costs of a TOLAC via induction of labor verses a repeat CD for cases of stillbirth occurring near term. STUDY DESIGN: A decision-analytic model incorporating the current and a subsequent delivery using TreeAge software was designed to compare outcomes in women induced for a TOLAC to those undergoing repeat CD in the setting of stillbirth at 34-41 weeks' gestation. We used a theoretical cohort of 6000 women, the estimated annual number of women a prior cesarean who experience a stillbirth in the United States. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for both modes of delivery with consideration of future pregnancy risks. Future pregnancy risks included uterine rupture, hysterectomy, placenta accreta, maternal death, neonatal death, and neonatal neurological deficits. Probabilities were derived from the literature, and a cost-effectiveness threshold was set at $100,000/QALY. RESULTS: In our theoretical cohort of 6000 women with a prior CD and current stillbirth, induction of labor resulted in 4836 fewer cesarean deliveries during stillbirth management, 1040 fewer cesarean deliveries in the subsequent pregnancy, and 14 fewer cases of placenta accreta in the subsequent pregnancy, despite 29 additional uterine ruptures across both pregnancies. Induction of labor was found to be the dominant strategy, resulting in decreased costs and increased QALYs. Univariate sensitivity analyses demonstrated that induction of labor was cost effective until the risk of uterine rupture in the first delivery exceeded 0.83% (baseline estimate: 0.38%). Additional univariate sensitivity analyses found that induction of labor was cost effective until the risk of IOL failure in the first delivery exceeded 64% (baseline estimate: 19%). CONCLUSION: In our theoretical cohort, induction of labor for TOLAC in the setting of a stillbirth with a history of prior CD is cost effective compared to a repeat CD. The results of this analysis demonstrate the benefit of induction of labor among women in this scenario who desire a future pregnancy.

Severe maternal morbidity and Black-white differences in Washington State.

OBJECTIVE: Rates of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) are significantly higher among Black women and some data suggests further worsening of these rates among hospitals with the highest proportion of Black deliveries. In this study, we sought to examine whether Black women have higher SMM in Washington State and whether this varied by hospital. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked birth-hospital discharge data from Washington State. We compared Non-Hispanic Black women with Non-Hispanic white women and excluded observations with missing hospital information. SMM was defined using an already published algorithm. We ranked hospitals into low-, medium- and high Black-serving hospitals by using proportions of deliveries to Black women among all deliveries. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association of Black women with SMM adjusted for demographics, co-morbidities and clustering within hospital. RESULTS: In the cohort of 407,808 women, 4556 (1.12%) had SMM. High Black-serving hospitals had the highest rate of SMM (1.94%) as compared to medium Black-serving hospitals (1.16%) and low Black-serving hospitals (1.06%) (p < .01). Odds of SMM was higher in Black women (OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.39-1.78) and remained elevated after adjusting for demographics and the level of Black-serving hospital (aOR= 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.49). CONCLUSION: We found that the risk of SMM was higher among Black women. Hospital level performance and health outcomes stratified by maternal race and ethnicity in hospitals and hospital systems should be addressed to further reduce disparities and optimize outcomes.

Timing of delivery in women with prior uterine rupture: a decision analysis.

Background: Uterine rupture is an obstetric complication with high rates of associated maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. However, limited guidance for the timing of delivery in women with a history of prior uterine rupture exists.Objective: To determine the optimal gestational age of delivery in women with prior uterine rupture.Study design: A decision-analytic model was built using TreeAge software to compare the outcomes of repeat cesarean delivery when performed at 32, 33, 34, 35, or 36 weeks gestation in a theoretical cohort of 1000 women with prior uterine rupture. Strategies involved expectant management until a later gestational age accounting for the risks of spontaneous uterine rupture, spontaneous labor, uterine rupture following spontaneous labor, and stillbirth during each successive week that a woman was still pregnant. Maternal outcomes included uterine rupture, hysterectomy, and death. Neonatal outcomes included hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, cerebral palsy, and death. Probabilities were derived from the literature and total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were used to vary model inputs to investigate the robustness of our baseline assumptions.Results: In our theoretical cohort of 1000 pregnant women with a history of prior uterine rupture, cesarean delivery at 34 weeks maximized maternal and neonatal QALYs. Compared to delivery at 36 weeks, delivery at 34 weeks would prevent 38.6 uterine ruptures, 0.079 maternal deaths, 6.10 hysterectomies, and 12.1 neonatal deaths but results in 4.70 more cases of cerebral palsy. Univariate sensitivity analysis found that repeat cesarean at 34 weeks remained the optimal strategy until the probability of spontaneous repeat uterine rupture (baseline estimate: 0.68%) fell below 0.2% or rose above 0.9%, at which point, a strategy of delivery at 35 or 32 weeks became optimal, respectively. However, Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that delivery at 35 weeks was the optimal strategy 37% of the time, whereas 34 weeks was the optimal strategy 17% of the time.Conclusion: The optimal time for repeat cesarean delivery in women with prior uterine rupture appears to be between 34-0/7 and 35-6/7 weeks gestation.

The cost-effectiveness of repeat HIV testing during pregnancy in a resource-limited setting.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening strategies for the prevention of perinatal transmission in Uganda, a resource-limited country with high HIV prevalence and incidence. STUDY DESIGN: We designed a decision analytic model from a health care system perspective to assess the vertical transmission rates and cost-effectiveness of 4 different HIV screening strategies in pregnancy: (1) rapid HIV antibody (Ab) test at initial visit (current standard of care), (2) strategy 1 + HIV RNA at initial visit (adds detection of acute HIV), (3) strategy 1 + repeat HIV Ab at delivery (adds detection of incident HIV), and (4) strategy 3 + HIV RNA at delivery (adds detection of acute HIV at delivery). Model estimates were derived from the literature and local sources, and life years saved were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. Based on World Health Organization guidelines, we defined our cost-effectiveness threshold as ≤3 times the gross domestic product per capita, which for Uganda was US$3300 in 2008. RESULTS: Using base case estimates of 10% HIV prevalence among women entering prenatal care and 3% incidence during pregnancy, strategy 3 was incrementally the cost-effective option that led to the greatest total life years. CONCLUSIONS: Repeat rapid HIV Ab testing at the time of labor is a cost-effective strategy even in a resource-limited setting such as Uganda.