Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers.

OBJECTIVES: To examine long-term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio-demographic, and competition-related factors influenced dropout. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data. METHODS: Part 1-Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10-15 years (inclusive). Part 2-Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12-15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used. RESULTS: (1) Kaplan-Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93-4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age-group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10- vs 15-year-olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79-5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national). CONCLUSION: In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age-group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.

Does a perceptuomotor skills assessment have added value to detect talent for table tennis in primary school children?

Talent detection intends to support lifelong sports participation, reduce dropouts and stimulate sports at the elite level. For this purpose it is important to reveal the specific profile which directs children to the sports that connect to their strengths and preferences. This study evaluated a perceptuomotor skills assessment as part of talent detection for table tennis, a sport in which perceptuomotor skills are considered essential to cope with the difficult technical aspects. Primary school children (n = 121) and gifted young table tennis players (n = 146) were assessed using the Dutch perceptuomotor skills assessment measuring "ball control" and "gross motor function". A discriminant function analysis confirmed the added value by identifying primary school children fitting the table tennis perceptuomotor profile of the young gifted table tennis players (28%). General linear model analyses for the assessment's individual test items showed that the table tennis players outperformed their primary school peers on all "ball control" items (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the assessment appears to be of added value for talent detection in table tennis at this young age. Longitudinal studies need to reveal the predictive value for sports participation and elite sports.

Predictive models reduce talent development costs in female gymnastics.

This retrospective study focuses on the comparison of different predictive models based on the results of a talent identification test battery for female gymnasts. We studied to what extent these models have the potential to optimise selection procedures, and at the same time reduce talent development costs in female artistic gymnastics. The dropout rate of 243 female elite gymnasts was investigated, 5 years past talent selection, using linear (discriminant analysis) and non-linear predictive models (Kohonen feature maps and multilayer perceptron). The coaches classified 51.9% of the participants correct. Discriminant analysis improved the correct classification to 71.6% while the non-linear technique of Kohonen feature maps reached 73.7% correctness. Application of the multilayer perceptron even classified 79.8% of the gymnasts correctly. The combination of different predictive models for talent selection can avoid deselection of high-potential female gymnasts. The selection procedure based upon the different statistical analyses results in decrease of 33.3% of cost because the pool of selected athletes can be reduced to 92 instead of 138 gymnasts (as selected by the coaches). Reduction of the costs allows the limited resources to be fully invested in the high-potential athletes.