Identification of Dementia in Medicare Claims Compared to Rigorous Clinical Assessments in African Americans.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates the health care system disproportionately misses dementia in African American compared to White individuals. In preliminary data, we examined factors related to dementia identification by the health care system among African Americans. METHODS: We leveraged linked Medicare fee-for-service claims and detailed annual cohort evaluations in African Americans from 4 cohorts at Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center. RESULTS: Among 88 African Americans with cognitive impairment (mean = 10 years follow-up), Medicare claims identified dementia <2 years from cohort diagnosis in 55%; 27% were identified 2-9.9 years after cohort diagnosis, and in 18% there was either no claims diagnosis during the study period, or claims identified dementia 10+ years after cohort diagnosis. Claims identification of dementia was related to older age at cohort diagnosis (eg, <2 years between cohort and claims: mean = 82 years; 10+ years/no diagnosis: mean = 77 years, p = .04), lower Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (<2 years: mean = 24; 10+ years/no diagnosis: mean = 26, p = .04), more depressive symptoms (<2 years: mean = 2.1 symptoms; 10+ years/no diagnosis: mean = 1.2, p = .04), and more comorbidity (<2 years: mean = 5.6 comorbidities; 10+ years/no diagnosis, mean = 3.0, p = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Among African Americans, preliminary data indicate the health care system most rapidly identifies dementia in older individuals, with worse cognitive and physical health. The health care system may miss opportunities for early support of African Americans with dementia, and caregivers.

Medicare Hospice Policy Changes and Beneficiaries' Rate of Live Discharge and Length-of-Stay.

CONTEXT: The 2014 Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) Act systemized audits of long hospice stays, and the 2016 two-tier payment system decreased daily reimbursement rates after 60 days of enrollment. Both aimed to reduce long stays. OBJECTIVES: Examine how live discharge rates and length of stay changed in relation to the policies. METHODS: We computed monthly hospice-level percent live discharges and length of stay using 2008-2019 Medicare hospice claims. We compared prepolicies trends and postpolicies trends overall, within Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) patients, within lung cancer patients, and stratified by hospice ownership (for-profit vs. nonprofit/government-owned). RESULTS: We included 10,539,912 and 10,453,025 episodes of care in the analytical samples for live discharge and length of stay analyses, respectively. Overall percent live discharges declined during the prepolicies period (-0.13 percentage-points per month, 95% CI: -0.14, -0.12), but exhibited no significant change during the postpolicies period. Trends were driven primarily by for-profits, with similar patterns within ADRD and lung cancer patients. Overall, mean length of stay increased over time, with greater rate of increase during the postpolicies period (0.41 days per month, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.42) compared to the prepolicies period (0.12 days per month, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.14). Length-of-stay increased faster among ADRD patients, but changed minimally for lung cancer patients. CONCLUSION: Live discharge rates declined significantly during the prepolicies period, but plateaued after implementation of the policies, driven by changes in for-profits. However, the policies did not reduce length of stay, which increased at faster rates, suggesting that postpolicies excess live discharges were not restricted to long-stay patients.

Evaluation of Federal Policy Changes to the Hospice Benefit and Use of Hospice for Persons With ADRD.

Importance: Hospice is an important end-of-life service for patients with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD). Objective: To determine whether hospice use among patients with ADRD changed in association with recent policies aimed at reducing hospice misuse and long hospice stays, an outcome that may have disproportionately affected patients with ADRD because of their lengthy end-of-life trajectories. Design Setting and Participants: This observational cross-sectional study used Medicare hospice claims data from Medicare hospice episodes of care beginning between July 2008 and December 2019 among Medicare hospice beneficiaries 65 years or older at time of enrollment. Data analysis was conducted between September 2019 and June 2021. Exposures: The 2014 Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) Act, which systematized audits of hospices with a high proportion of long stays, and the 2016 2-tier payment system, which reduced daily reimbursement rates after 60 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly percentage of (1) new patient enrollees, (2) patient census, and (3) care days provided to patients with an ADRD code. Results: The sample included 11 124 992 unique hospice episodes between 2008 and 2019; mean (SD) patient enrollment age ranged from 82.0 (8.2) years to 82.8 (8.7) years; the percentage of male patients ranged from 40.5% to 42.7%, and the percentage of Black, Hispanic, and White patients ranged from 7.7% to 8.2%, 1.5% to 2.0%, and 86.2% to 88.8%, respectively, across years. The percentage of new enrollees with an ADRD code dropped significantly during the months of IMPACT passage (-1.42 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.13 to -0.71) and implementation (-1.98 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.70 to -1.26) but rose again during the following months. While no significant changes were observed at the time of 2-tier payment implementation (0.15 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.21 to 0.51), the average rate of increase during the subsequent period was slower (0.01 percentage points per month; 95% CI, 0-0.02) than in earlier periods (0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.06 during the baseline period). Similar patterns were observed for the percentage of patient census and care days provided to patients with an ADRD code. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cross-sectional study of Medicare hospice claims data suggested that recent Medicare policies were associated with immediate and lasting reductions in the share of patients receiving hospice care with an ADRD code compared with expectations from preimplementation trends. Future research should examine mechanisms through which hospices enacted change and consequences for quality of care.

Identification of Dementia in Recent Medicare Claims Data, Compared With Rigorous Clinical Assessments.

BACKGROUND: Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) claims data are increasingly leveraged for dementia research. Few studies address the validity of recent claim data to identify dementia, or carefully evaluate characteristics of those assigned the wrong diagnosis in claims. METHODS: We used claims data from 2014 to 2018, linked to participants administered rigorous, annual dementia evaluations in 5 cohorts at the Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center. We compared prevalent dementia diagnosed through the 2016 cohort evaluation versus claims identification of dementia, applying the Bynum-standard algorithm. RESULTS: Of 1 054 participants with Medicare Parts A and B FFS in a 3-year window surrounding their 2016 index date, 136 had prevalent dementia diagnosed during cohort evaluations; the claims algorithm yielded 217. Sensitivity of claims diagnosis was 79%, specificity 88%, positive predictive value 50%, negative predictive value 97%, and overall accuracy 87%. White participants were disproportionately represented among detected dementia cases (true positive) versus cases missed (false negative) by claims (90% vs 75%, respectively, p = .04). Dementia appeared more severe in detected than missed cases in claims (mean Mini-Mental State Exam = 15.4 vs 22.0, respectively, p < .001; 28% with no limitations in activities of daily living versus 45%, p = .046). By contrast, those with "over-diagnosis" of dementia in claims (false positive) had several worse health indicators than true negatives (eg, self-reported memory concerns = 51% vs 29%, respectively, p < .001; mild cognitive impairment in cohort evaluation = 72% vs 44%, p < .001; mean comorbidities = 7 vs 4, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Recent Medicare claims perform reasonably well in identifying dementia; however, there are consistent differences in cases of dementia identified through claims than in rigorous cohort evaluations.

Trends in Relative Incidence and Prevalence of Dementia Across Non-Hispanic Black and White Individuals in the United States, 2000-2016.

Importance: In the US, dementia risk is higher in non-Hispanic Black individuals than in non-Hispanic White individuals. To evaluate progress toward reducing such disparities, tracking secular trends in racial disparities in dementia prevalence is essential. Objective: To examine whether relative racial disparities in dementia prevalence or incidence have changed in the US from 2000 to 2016. Design, Settings, and Participants: The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a nationally representative study of adults 50 years or older. New participants are recruited every 6 years, and study visits occur biennially. Approximately 17 000 to 22 000 respondents have been surveyed at each wave since 2000, achieving response rates of 81% to 89%. Data for this cohort study were obtained from non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black participants aged 70 years and older from the 2000 to 2016 waves. For analyses of secular trends in racial disparities in dementia prevalence, each HRS wave was considered separately (range of participants meeting eligibility criteria in each wave, 6322-7579). For analyses of secular trends in racial disparities in dementia incidence, 7 subcohorts were created (range of participants meeting eligibility criteria in each subcohort, 5322-5961) following up people without dementia for 4 years from subcohort baseline visits in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. Data were analyzed from October 2019 to August 2020. Exposures: Race based on self-response to closed-ended survey questions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dementia status was determined using 3 algorithms with similar sensitivity and specificity across non-Hispanic White and Black participants. Disparities were characterized using ratio measures. Results: In this study, the mean age and percentage of male participants eligible for inclusion in analyses of racial disparities in dementia prevalence increased over time among non-Hispanic White participants (from 78.2 years and 40% in 2000 to 78.7 years and 44% in 2016) but remained steady in non-Hispanic Black participants during the same period (from 78.0 years and 37% in 2000 to 77.9 years and 38% in 2016). Prevalence ratios comparing Black and White participants ranged from approximately 1.5 to 1.9 across algorithms and years, whereas hazard ratios ranged from approximately 1.4 to 1.8. Although results suggest stable or declining dementia risk overall, there was no evidence suggesting change in relative racial disparities in dementia prevalence or incidence during follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance: This study did not find evidence to suggest that the ratio of dementia risk across Black and White individuals changed in the US between 2000 and 2016. Additional efforts to identify and mitigate the source of these disparities is warranted.

Implications of the Use of Algorithmic Diagnoses or Medicare Claims to Ascertain Dementia.

INTRODUCTION: Formal dementia ascertainment with research criteria is resource-intensive, prompting the growing use of alternative approaches. Our objective was to illustrate the potential bias and implications for study conclusions introduced through the use of alternate dementia ascertainment approaches. METHODS: We compared dementia prevalence and risk factor associations obtained using criterion-standard dementia diagnoses to those obtained using algorithmic or Medicare-based dementia ascertainment in participants of the baseline visit of the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS), a Health and Retirement Study (HRS) sub-study. RESULTS: Estimates of dementia prevalence derived using algorithmic or Medicare-based ascertainment differ substantially from those obtained using criterion-standard ascertainment. Use of algorithmic or Medicare-based dementia ascertainment can, but does not always, lead to risk factor associations that substantially differ from those obtained using criterion-standard ascertainment. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Absolute estimates of dementia prevalence should rely on samples with formal dementia ascertainment. The use of multiple algorithms is recommended for risk factor studies when formal dementia ascertainment is not available.

Development of Algorithmic Dementia Ascertainment for Racial/Ethnic Disparities Research in the US Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Disparities research in dementia is limited by lack of large, diverse, and representative samples with systematic dementia ascertainment. Algorithmic diagnosis of dementia offers a cost-effective alternate approach. Prior work in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study has demonstrated that existing algorithms are ill-suited for racial/ethnic disparities work given differences in sensitivity and specificity by race/ethnicity. METHODS: We implemented traditional and machine learning methods to identify an improved algorithm that: (1) had ≤5 percentage point difference in sensitivity and specificity across racial/ethnic groups; (2) achieved ≥80% overall accuracy across racial/ethnic groups; and (3) achieved ≥75% sensitivity and ≥90% specificity overall. Final recommendations were based on robustness, accuracy of estimated race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and prevalence ratios compared to those using in-person diagnoses, and ease of use. RESULTS: We identified six algorithms that met our prespecified criteria. Our three recommended algorithms achieved ≤3 percentage point difference in sensitivity and ≤5 percentage point difference in specificity across racial/ethnic groups, as well as 77%-83% sensitivity, 92%-94% specificity, and 90%-92% accuracy overall in analyses designed to emulate out-of-sample performance. Pairwise prevalence ratios between non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics estimated by application of these algorithms are within 1%-10% of prevalence ratios estimated based on in-person diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: We believe these algorithms will be of immense value to dementia researchers interested in racial/ethnic disparities. Our process can be replicated to allow minimally biasing algorithmic classification of dementia for other purposes.

Racial disparities and temporal trends in dementia misdiagnosis risk in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Systematic disparities in misdiagnosis of dementia across racial/ethnic groups have implications for health disparities. We compared the risk of dementia under- and overdiagnosis in clinical settings across racial/ethnic groups from 2000 to 2010. METHODS: We linked fee-for-service Medicare claims to participants aged ≥70 from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study. We classified dementia status using an algorithm with similar sensitivity and specificity across racial/ethnic groups and assigned clinical dementia diagnosis status using ICD-9-CM codes from Medicare claims. Multinomial logit models were used to estimate relative risks of clinical under- and overdiagnosis between groups and over time. RESULTS: Non-Hispanic blacks had roughly double the risk of underdiagnosis as non-Hispanic whites. While primary analyses suggested a shrinking disparity over time, this was not robust to sensitivity analyses or adjustment for covariates. Risk of overdiagnosis increased over time in both groups. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that efforts to reduce racial disparities in underdiagnosis are warranted.

The Association Between Air Pollution and Onset of Depression Among Middle-Aged and Older Women.

Despite recently reported associations between air pollution and acute psychiatric outcomes, the association with depression onset has not, to our knowledge, been previously examined. We conducted a prospective cohort study among 41,844 women in the Nurses' Health Study, in the United States. The women had an average age of 66.6 (standard deviation, 7.6) years, were depression-free in 1996, and were followed through 2008. May-September ozone exposures were predicted by interpolating concentrations from the 5 nearest monitors. One-, 2-, and 5-year average concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) were predicted at each participant's residence using a spatiotemporal model. We defined depression as report of doctor's diagnosis or use of antidepressant medication. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios with time-varying Cox models. Hazard ratios for both pollutants were elevated (per 10-parts-per-billion increase in ozone, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.12; per 10-µg/m3 increase in 1-year PM2.5, HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.20). Associations were stronger when only antidepressant use was used to define cases (for ozone, HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.14; for PM2.5, HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.25). To our knowledge, these results represent the first identification of a possible association between both long-term ozone and PM2.5 exposure and depression onset. Although the stronger association specifically with antidepressant use may reflect that this endpoint better captures the onset time and milder cases, our findings should be interpreted with caution.

The relation between past exposure to fine particulate air pollution and prevalent anxiety: observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether higher past exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with prevalent high symptoms of anxiety. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Nurses' Health Study. PARTICIPANTS: 71,271 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study residing throughout the contiguous United States who had valid estimates on exposure to particulate matter for at least one exposure period of interest and data on anxiety symptoms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Meaningfully high symptoms of anxiety, defined as a score of 6 points or greater on the phobic anxiety subscale of the Crown-Crisp index, administered in 2004. RESULTS: The 71,271 eligible women were aged between 57 and 85 years (mean 70 years) at the time of assessment of anxiety symptoms, with a prevalence of high anxiety symptoms of 15%. Exposure to particulate matter was characterized using estimated average exposure to particulate matter <2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and 2.5 to 10 µm in diameter (PM2.5-10) in the one month, three months, six months, one year, and 15 years prior to assessment of anxiety symptoms, and residential distance to the nearest major road two years prior to assessment. Significantly increased odds of high anxiety symptoms were observed with higher exposure to PM2.5 for multiple averaging periods (for example, odds ratio per 10 µg/m(3) increase in prior one month average PM2.5: 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.19; in prior 12 month average PM2.5: 1.15, 1.06 to 1.26). Models including multiple exposure windows suggested short term averaging periods were more relevant than long term averaging periods. There was no association between anxiety and exposure to PM2.5-10. Residential proximity to major roads was not related to anxiety symptoms in a dose dependent manner. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was associated with high symptoms of anxiety, with more recent exposures potentially more relevant than more distant exposures. Research evaluating whether reductions in exposure to ambient PM2.5 would reduce the population level burden of clinically relevant symptoms of anxiety is warranted.

Relationships between lead biomarkers and diurnal salivary cortisol indices in pregnant women from Mexico City: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Lead (Pb) exposure during pregnancy may increase the risk of adverse maternal, infant, or childhood health outcomes by interfering with hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis function. We examined relationships between maternal blood or bone Pb concentrations and features of diurnal cortisol profiles in 936 pregnant women from Mexico City. METHODS: From 2007-11 we recruited women from hospitals/clinics affiliated with the Mexican Social Security System. Pb was measured in blood (BPb) during the second trimester and in mothers' tibia and patella 1-month postpartum. We characterized maternal HPA-axis function using 10 timed salivary cortisol measurements collected over 2-days (mean: 19.7, range: 14-35 weeks gestation). We used linear mixed models to examine the relationship between Pb biomarkers and cortisol area under the curve (AUC), awakening response (CAR), and diurnal slope. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, women in the highest quintile of BPb concentrations had a reduced CAR (Ratio: -13%; Confidence Interval [CI]: -24, 1, p-value for trend < 0.05) compared to women in the lowest quintile. Tibia/patella Pb concentrations were not associated with CAR, but diurnal cortisol slopes were suggestively flatter among women in the highest patella Pb quantile compared to women in the lowest quantile (Ratio: 14%; CI: -2, 33). BPb and bone Pb concentrations were not associated with cortisol AUC. CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent blood Pb levels were associated with cortisol awakening response in these pregnant women and this might explain adverse health outcomes associated with Pb. Further research is needed to confirm these results and determine if other environmental chemicals disrupt hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis function during pregnancy.