Modeling Adherence Interventions Among Youth with HIV in the United States: Clinical and Economic Projections.

The Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions is evaluating treatment adherence interventions (AI) to improve virologic suppression (VS) among youth with HIV (YWH). Using a microsimulation model, we compared two strategies: standard-of-care (SOC) and a hypothetical 12-month AI that increased cohort-level VS in YWH in care by an absolute ten percentage points and cost $100/month/person. Projected outcomes included primary HIV transmissions, deaths and life-expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Compared to SOC, AI would reduce HIV transmissions by 15% and deaths by 12% at 12 months. AI would improve discounted life expectancy/person by 8 months at an added lifetime cost/person of $5,300, resulting in an ICER of $7,900/QALY. AI would be cost-effective at $2,000/month/person or with efficacies as low as a 1 percentage point increase in VS. YWH-targeted adherence interventions with even modest efficacy could improve life expectancy, prevent onward HIV transmissions, and be cost-effective.

RESUMEN: La Red de Ensayos Médicos sobre Adolescentes para Realizar Intervenciones sobre el VIH/SIDA está evaluando intervenciones de adherencia (IAs) al tratamiento para mejorar la supresión virológica (SV) entre los jóvenes con VIH (JCV). Usando un modelo de microsimulación, comparamos dos estrategias: cuidado convencional (CC) y una intervención de adherencia hipotética durando 12 meses que aumentaría la SV a nivel de cohorte entre JCV en tratamiento por 10 puntos de porcentuales y que costaría US$ 100/mes/persona. Resultados proyectados incluyeron transmisiones de VIH primarias, muertes y esperanza de vida, costos de por vida asociados con el VIH, y razones incrementales de costo-efectividad (RICEs, $/año de vida ajustado por la calidad [AVAC]). Comparado al CC, la IA reduciría transmisiones de VIH por 15% y muertes por 12% a los 12 meses. La IA mejoraría esperanza de vida descontada/persona por 8 meses a un costo de por vida adicional/persona de US$ 5.300, resultando en una RICE de US$ 7.900/AVAC. La IA sería costo-efectiva a un costo de US$ 2.000/mes/persona o si mejorara SV por al menos un punto porcentual. Intervenciones de adherencia dirigidas a jóvenes con una eficacia incluso modesta podrían mejorar esperanza de vida, prevenir transmisiones de VIH, y ser costo-efectivas.

Sexual Partner Types and Incident HIV Infection Among Rural South African Adolescent Girls and Young Women Enrolled in HPTN 068: A Latent Class Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sexual partners are the primary source of incident HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa. Identifying partner types at greatest risk of HIV transmission could guide the design of tailored HIV prevention interventions. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from AGYW (aged 13-23 years) enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of cash transfers for HIV prevention in South Africa. Annually, AGYW reported behavioral and demographic characteristics of their 3 most recent sexual partners, categorized each partner using prespecified labels, and received HIV testing. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify partner types from reported characteristics, and generalized estimating equations to estimate the relationship between both LCA-identified and prespecified partner types and incident HIV infection. RESULTS: Across 2140 AGYW visits, 1034 AGYW made 2968 partner reports and 63 AGYW acquired HIV infection. We identified 5 LCA partner types, which we named monogamous HIV-negative peer partner; one-time protected in-school peer partner; out-of-school older partner; anonymous out-of-school peer partner; and cohabiting with children in-school peer partner. Compared to AGYW with only monogamous HIV-negative peer partners, AGYW with out-of-school older partners had 2.56 times the annual risk of HIV infection (95% confidence interval: 1.23 to 5.33), whereas AGYW with anonymous out-of-school peer partners had 1.72 times the risk (95% confidence interval: 0.82 to 3.59). Prespecified partner types were not associated with incident HIV. CONCLUSION: By identifying meaningful combinations of partner characteristics and predicting the corresponding risk of HIV acquisition among AGYW, LCA-identified partner types may provide new insights for the design of tailored HIV prevention interventions.

Depression, ART Adherence, and Receipt of Case Management Services by Adults with HIV in North Carolina, Medical Monitoring Project, 2009-2013.

Depression among persons with HIV is associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption and discontinuation, virological failure, and poor clinical and survival outcomes. Case management services can address needs for emotional counseling and other supportive services to facilitate HIV care engagement. Using 2009-2013 North Carolina Medical Monitoring Project data from 910 persons engaged in HIV care, we estimated associations of case management utilization with "probable current depression" and with 100% ART dose adherence. After weighting, 53.2% of patients reported receiving case management, 21.7% reported depression, and 87.0% reported ART adherence. Depression prevalence was higher among those reporting case management (24.9%) than among other patients (17.6%) (p < 0.01). Case management was associated with depression among patients living above the poverty level [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR), 2.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-3.36], and not among other patients (aPR, 1.01; 95% CI 0.72-1.43). Receipt of case management was not associated with ART adherence (aPR, 1.00; 95% CI 0.95-1.05). Our analysis indicates a need for more effective depression treatment, even among persons receiving case management services. Self-reported ART adherence was high overall, though lower among persons experiencing depression (unadjusted prevalence ratio, 0.92; 95% CI 0.86-0.99). Optimal HIV clinical and prevention outcomes require addressing psychological wellbeing, monitoring of ART adherence, and effective case management services.

Critical Review: Building on the HIV Cascade: A Complementary "HIV States and Transitions" Framework for Describing HIV Diagnosis, Care, and Treatment at the Population Level.

The HIV cascade--often referred to as "the HIV continuum"--provides a valuable framework for population-level representations of engagement with the HIV healthcare system. The importance and appeal of this framework are evidenced by a large body of scientific literature, as well as by the adoption of cascade-related indicators by medical and public health organizations worldwide. Despite its centrality in the fields of HIV treatment and prevention, however, the traditional cascade provides limited description of the processes affecting the numbers it represents. Representations that describe these processes and capture the dynamic nature of HIV-infected persons' pathways through the healthcare system are essential for monitoring and predicting intervention effects and epidemic trends. We propose here a complementary schema--termed the "HIV States and Transitions" framework--designed to maintain key strengths of the traditional cascade while addressing key limitations and more fully describing the dynamic aspects of HIV testing, care, and treatment at the population level.

Community viral load as a measure for assessment of HIV treatment as prevention.

Community viral load, defined as an aggregation of individual viral loads of people infected with HIV in a specific community, has been proposed as a useful measure to monitor HIV treatment uptake and quantify its effect on transmission. The first reports of community viral load were published in 2009, and the measure was subsequently incorporated into the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy. Although intuitively an appealing strategy, measurement of community viral load has several theoretical limitations and biases that need further assessment, which can be grouped into four categories: issues of selection and measurement, the importance of HIV prevalence in determining the potential for ongoing HIV transmission, interpretation of community viral load and its effect on ongoing HIV transmission in a community, and the ecological fallacy (ie, ecological bias). These issues need careful assessment as community viral load is being considered as a public health measurement to assess the effect of HIV care on prevention.