External validation of a refined four-stratum risk assessment score from the French pulmonary hypertension registry.

INTRODUCTION: Contemporary risk assessment tools categorise patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) as low, intermediate or high risk. A minority of patients achieve low risk status with most remaining intermediate risk. Our aim was to validate a four-stratum risk assessment approach categorising patients as low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high or high risk, as proposed by the Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) investigators. METHODS: We evaluated incident patients from the French PAH Registry and applied a four-stratum risk method at baseline and at first reassessment. We applied refined cut-points for three variables: World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walk distance and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression to assess survival according to three-stratum and four-stratum risk approaches. RESULTS: At baseline (n=2879), the four-stratum approach identified four distinct risk groups and performed slightly better than a three-stratum method for predicting mortality. Four-stratum model discrimination was significantly higher than the three-stratum method when applied during follow-up and refined risk categories among subgroups with idiopathic PAH, connective tissue disease-associated PAH, congenital heart disease and portopulmonary hypertension. Using the four-stratum approach, 53% of patients changed risk category from baseline compared to 39% of patients when applying the three-stratum approach. Those who achieved or maintained a low risk status had the best survival, whereas there were more nuanced differences in survival for patients who were intermediate-low and intermediate-high risk. CONCLUSIONS: The four-stratum risk assessment method refined risk prediction, especially within the intermediate risk category of patients, performed better at predicting survival and was more sensitive to change than the three-stratum approach.

Low income and outcome in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: An association to uncover.

BACKGROUND: Low income, a known prognostic indicator of various chronic respiratory diseases, has not been properly studied in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We hypothesize that a low income has an adverse prognostic impact on IPF. METHODS: Patients were selected from the French national prospective cohort COFI. Patients' income was assessed through the median city-level income provided by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies according to their residential address. Patients were classified in two groups as "low income" vs. "higher income" depending on whether their annual income was estimated to be < or ≥18 170 €/year (the first quartile of the income distribution in the study population). The survival and progression-free survival (PFS) of the groups were compared by a log-rank test and a Cox model in multivariate analysis. RESULTS: 200 patients were included. The average follow-up was 33.8 ± 22.7 months. Patients in the low income group were significantly more likely to be of non-European origin (p < 0.006), and to have at least one occupational exposure (p < 0.0001), and they tended to have a higher cumulative exposure to fine particles PM2.5 (p = 0.057). After adjusting for age, gender, forced vital capacity at inclusion, geographical origin, and occupational exposure having a low-income level was a factor associated with a worse PFS (HR: 1.81; CI95%: 1.24-2.62, p = 0.001) and overall survival (HR: 1.49; CI95%: 1.0006-2.23, p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Low income appears to be a prognostic factor in IPF. IPF patients with low incomes may also be exposed more frequently to occupational exposures.

Haemodynamics and serial risk assessment in systemic sclerosis associated pulmonary arterial hypertension.

The prognostic importance of follow-up haemodynamics and the validity of multidimensional risk assessment are not well established for systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).We assessed incident SSc-PAH patients to determine the association between clinical and haemodynamic variables at baseline and first follow-up right heart catheterisation (RHC) with transplant-free survival. RHC variables included cardiac index, stroke volume index (SVI), pulmonary arterial compliance and pulmonary vascular resistance. Risk assessment was performed according to the number of low-risk criteria: functional class I or II, 6-min walking distance (6MWD) >440 m, right atrial pressure <8 mmHg and cardiac index ≥2.5 L·min-1·m-2Transplant-free survival from diagnosis (n=513) was 87%, 55% and 35% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. At baseline, 6MWD was the only independent predictor. A follow-up RHC was available for 353 patients (median interval 4.6 months, interquartile range 3.9-6.4 months). The 6MWD, functional class, cardiac index, SVI, pulmonary arterial compliance and pulmonary vascular resistance were independently associated with transplant-free survival at follow-up, with SVI performing better than other haemodynamic variables. 1-year outcomes were better with increasing number of low-risk criteria at baseline (area under the curve (AUC) 0.63, 95% CI 0.56-0.69) and at first follow-up (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.64-0.78).Follow-up haemodynamics and multidimensional risk assessment had greater prognostic significance than at baseline in SSc-PAH.

Risk assessment, prognosis and guideline implementation in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Current European guidelines recommend periodic risk assessment for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The aim of our study was to determine the association between the number of low-risk criteria achieved within 1 year of diagnosis and long-term prognosis.Incident patients with idiopathic, heritable and drug-induced PAH between 2006 and 2016 were analysed. The number of low-risk criteria present at diagnosis and at first re-evaluation were assessed: World Health Organization (WHO)/New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I or II, 6-min walking distance (6MWD) >440 m, right atrial pressure <8 mmHg and cardiac index ≥2.5 L·min-1·m-21017 patients were included (mean age 57 years, 59% female, 75% idiopathic PAH). After a median follow-up of 34 months, 238 (23%) patients had died. Each of the four low-risk criteria independently predicted transplant-free survival at first re-evaluation. The number of low-risk criteria present at diagnosis (p<0.001) and at first re-evaluation (p<0.001) discriminated the risk of death or lung transplantation. In addition, in a subgroup of 603 patients with brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements, the number of three noninvasive criteria (WHO/NYHA functional class, 6MWD and BNP/NT-proBNP) present at first re-evaluation discriminated prognostic groups (p<0.001).A simplified risk assessment tool that quantifies the number of low-risk criteria present accurately predicted transplant-free survival in PAH.