Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Trajectories of and disparities in HIV prevalence among Black, white, and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men in 86 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, 1992-2013.

PURPOSE: The challenges of producing adequate estimates of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) are well known. No one, to our knowledge, has published annual estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM over an extended period and across a wide range of geographic areas. METHODS: This article applies multilevel modeling to data integrated from numerous sources to estimate and validate trajectories of HIV prevalence among MSM from 1992 to 2013 for 86 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. RESULTS: Our estimates indicate that HIV prevalence among MSM increased, from an across-metropolitan statistical area mean of 11% in 1992 to 20% in 2013 (S.D. = 3.5%). Our estimates by racial/ethnic subgroups of MSM suggest higher mean HIV prevalence among black and Hispanic/Latino MSM than among white MSM across all years and geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: The increases found in HIV prevalence among all MSM are likely primarily attributable to decreases in mortality and perhaps also to increasing HIV incidence among racial/ethnic minority MSM. Future research is needed to confirm this. If true, health care initiatives should focus on targeted HIV prevention efforts among racial/ethnic minority MSM and on training providers to address cross-cutting health challenges of increased longevity among HIV-positive MSM.

Optimal Allocation of Societal HIV Prevention Resources to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States.

Objectives. To optimize combined public and private spending on HIV prevention to achieve maximum reductions in incidence.Methods. We used a national HIV model to estimate new infections from 2018 to 2027 in the United States. We estimated current spending on HIV screening, interventions that move persons with diagnosed HIV along the HIV care continuum, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We compared the current funding allocation with 2 optimal scenarios: (1) a limited-reach scenario with expanded efforts to serve eligible persons and (2) an ideal, unlimited-reach scenario in which all eligible persons could be served.Results. A continuation of the current allocation projects 331 000 new HIV cases over the next 10 years. The limited-reach scenario reduces that number by 69%, and the unlimited reach scenario by 94%. The most efficient funding allocations resulted in prompt diagnosis and sustained viral suppression through improved screening of high-risk persons and treatment adherence support for those infected.Conclusions. Optimal allocations of public and private funds for HIV prevention can achieve substantial reductions in new infections. Achieving reductions of more than 90% under current funding will require that virtually all infected receive sustained treatment.

Factors Associated with State Variation in Mortality Among Persons Living with Diagnosed HIV Infection.

In the United States, the all-cause mortality rate among persons living with diagnosed HIV infection (PLWH) is almost twice as high as among the general population. We aimed to identify amendable factors that state public health programs can influence to reduce mortality among PLWH. Using generalized estimating equations (GEE), we estimated age-group-specific models (24-34, 35-54, ≥ 55 years) to assess the association between state-level mortality rates among PLWH during 2010-2014 (National HIV Surveillance System) and amendable factors (percentage of Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) clients with viral suppression, percentage of residents with healthcare coverage, state-enacted anti-discrimination laws index) while controlling for sociodemographic nonamendable factors. Controlling for nonamendable factors, states with 5% higher viral suppression among RWHAP clients had a 3-5% lower mortality rates across all age groups [adjusted Risk Ratio (aRR): 0.95, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.92-0.99 for 24-34 years, aRR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for 35-54 years, aRR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for ≥ 55 years]; states with 5% higher health care coverage had 4-11% lower mortality rate among older age groups (aRR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.93-0.99 for 34-54 years; aRR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.81-0.97 for ≥ 55 years); and having laws that address one additional area of anti-discrimination was associated with a 2-3% lower mortality rate among older age groups (aRR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.95-1.00 for 34-54 years; aRR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for ≥ 55 years). The mortality rate among PLWH was lower in states with higher levels of residents with healthcare coverage, anti-discrimination laws, and viral suppression among RWHAP clients. States can influence these factors through programs and policies.

Selecting Evidence-Based HIV Prevention Behavioral Interventions for HIV-Negative Persons for National Dissemination.

This paper describes the development of a formula to determine which evidence-based behavioral interventions (EBIs) targeting HIV-negative persons would be cost-saving in comparison to the lifetime cost of HIV treatment and the process by which this formula was used to prioritize those with greatest potential impact for continued dissemination. We developed a prevention benefit index (PBI) to rank risk-reduction EBIs for HIV-negative persons based on their estimated cost for achieving the behavior change per one would-be incident infection of HIV. Inputs for calculating the PBI included the mean estimated cost-per-client served, EBI effect size for the behavior change, and the HIV incidence per 100,000 persons in the target population. EBIs for which the PBI was ≤ $402,000, the estimated lifetime cost of HIV care, were considered cost-saving. We were able to calculate a PBI for 35 EBI and target population combinations. Ten EBIs were cost-saving having a PBI below $402,000. One EBI did not move forward for dissemination due to high start-up dissemination costs. DHAP now supports the dissemination of 9 unique EBIs targeting 13 populations of HIV-negative persons. The application of a process, such as the PBI, may assist other health-field policymakers when making decisions about how to select and fund implementation of EBIs.

Optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds for state health departments.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the optimal allocation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV prevention funds for health departments in 52 jurisdictions, incorporating Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program funds, to improve outcomes along the HIV care continuum and prevent infections. METHODS: Using surveillance data from 2010 to 2012 and budgetary data from 2012, we divided the 52 health departments into 5 groups varying by number of persons living with diagnosed HIV (PLWDH), median annual CDC HIV prevention budget, and median annual HRSA expenditures supporting linkage to care, retention in care, and adherence to antiretroviral therapy. Using an optimization and a Bernoulli process model, we solved for the optimal CDC prevention budget allocation for each health department group. The optimal allocation distributed the funds across prevention interventions and populations at risk for HIV to prevent the greatest number of new HIV cases annually. RESULTS: Both the HIV prevention interventions funded by the optimal allocation of CDC HIV prevention funds and the proportions of the budget allocated were similar across health department groups, particularly those representing the large majority of PLWDH. Consistently funded interventions included testing, partner services and linkage to care and interventions for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sensitivity analyses showed that the optimal allocation shifted when there were differences in transmission category proportions and progress along the HIV care continuum. CONCLUSION: The robustness of the results suggests that most health departments can use these analyses to guide the investment of CDC HIV prevention funds into strategies to prevent the most new cases of HIV.

Shifting Resources and Focus to Meet the Goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy: The Enhanced Comprehensive HIV Prevention Planning Project, 2010-2013.

In September 2010, CDC launched the Enhanced Comprehensive HIV Prevention Planning (ECHPP) project to shift HIV-related activities to meet goals of the 2010 National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS). Twelve health departments in cities with high AIDS burden participated. These 12 grantees submitted plans detailing jurisdiction-level goals, strategies, and objectives for HIV prevention and care activities. We reviewed plans to identify themes in the planning process and initial implementation. Planning themes included data integration, broad engagement of partners, and resource allocation modeling. Implementation themes included organizational change, building partnerships, enhancing data use, developing protocols and policies, and providing training and technical assistance for new and expanded activities. Pilot programs also allowed grantees to assess the feasibility of large-scale implementation. These findings indicate that health departments in areas hardest hit by HIV are shifting their HIV prevention and care programs to increase local impact. Examples from ECHPP will be of interest to other health departments as they work toward meeting the NHAS goals.

From Theory to Practice: Implementation of a Resource Allocation Model in Health Departments.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a resource allocation model to optimize health departments' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-funded HIV prevention budgets to prevent the most new cases of HIV infection and to evaluate the model's implementation in 4 health departments. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: We developed a linear programming model combined with a Bernoulli process model that allocated a fixed budget among HIV prevention interventions and risk subpopulations to maximize the number of new infections prevented. The model, which required epidemiologic, behavioral, budgetary, and programmatic data, was implemented in health departments in Philadelphia, Chicago, Alabama, and Nebraska. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The optimal allocation of funds, the site-specific cost per case of HIV infection prevented rankings by intervention, and the expected number of HIV cases prevented. RESULTS: The model suggested allocating funds to HIV testing and continuum-of-care interventions in all 4 health departments. The most cost-effective intervention for all sites was HIV testing in nonclinical settings for men who have sex with men, and the least cost-effective interventions were behavioral interventions for HIV-negative persons. The pilot sites required 3 to 4 months of technical assistance to develop data inputs and generate and interpret the results. Although the sites found the model easy to use in providing quantitative evidence for allocating HIV prevention resources, they criticized the exclusion of structural interventions and the use of the model to allocate only CDC funds. CONCLUSIONS: Resource allocation models have the potential to improve the allocation of limited HIV prevention resources and can be used as a decision-making guide for state and local health departments. Using such models may require substantial staff time and technical assistance. These model results emphasize the allocation of CDC funds toward testing and continuum-of-care interventions and populations at highest risk of HIV transmission.

NIH support of Centers for AIDS Research and Department of Health Collaborative Public Health Research: advancing CDC's Enhanced Comprehensive HIV Prevention Planning project.

The contributions reported in this supplemental issue highlight the relevance of NIH-funded CEWG research to health department­supported HIV prevention and care activities in the 9 US cities with the highest numbers of AIDS cases. The project findings have the potential to enhance ongoing HIV treatment and care services and to advance the wider scientific agenda. The HIV testing to care continuum, while providing a framework to help track progress on national goals, also can reflect the heterogeneities of local epidemics. The collaborative research that is highlighted in this issue not only reflects a locally driven research agenda but also demonstrates research methods, data collection tools, and collaborative processes that could be encouraged across jurisdictions. Projects such as these, capitalizing on the integrated efforts of NIH, CDC, DOH, and academic institutions, have the potential to contribute to improvements in the HIV care continuum in these communities, bringing us closer to realizing the HIV prevention and treatment goals of the NHAS.

Opportunities for HIV combination prevention to reduce racial and ethnic health disparities.

Despite advances in HIV prevention and care, African Americans and Latino Americans remain at much higher risk of acquiring HIV, are more likely to be unaware of their HIV-positive status, are less likely to be linked to and retained in care, and are less likely to have suppressed viral load than are Whites. The first National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) has reducing these disparities as one of its three goals by encouraging the implementation of combination high-impact HIV intervention strategies. Federal agencies have expanded their collaborations in order to decrease HIV-related disparities through better implementation of data-driven decision making; integration and consolidation of the continuum of HIV care; and the reorganization of relationships among public health agencies, researchers, community-based organizations, and HIV advocates. Combination prevention, the integration of evidence-based and impactful behavioral, biomedical, and structural intervention strategies to reduce HIV incidence, provides the tools to address the HIV epidemic. Unfortunately, health disparities exist at every step along the HIV testing-to-care continuum. This provides an opportunity and a challenge to everyone involved in HIV prevention and care to understand and address health disparities as an integral part of ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. To further reduce health disparities, successful implementation of NHAS and combination prevention strategies will require multidisciplinary teams, including psychologists with diverse cultural backgrounds and experiences, to successfully engage groups at highest risk for HIV and those already infected with HIV. In order to utilize the comprehensive care continuum, psychologists and behavioral scientists have a role to play in reconceptualizing the continuum of care, conducting research to address health disparities, and creating community mobilization strategies.

Recommendations from a research consultation to address intervention strategies for HIV/AIDS prevention focused on African Americans.

Despite substantial federal resources spent on HIV prevention, research, treatment, and care, as well as the availability and dissemination of evidence-based behavioral interventions, the disparate impact of HIV on African Americans continues. In October 2007, 3 federal agencies convened 20 HIV/AIDS prevention researchers and care providers for a research consultation to focus on new intervention strategies and current effective intervention strategies that should be more widely disseminated to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic among African Americans. The consultants focused on 2 areas: (1) potential directions for HIV prevention interventions, defined to include behavioral, community, testing, service delivery, structural, biomedical, and other interventions; and (2) improved research methods and agency procedures to better support prevention research focused on African American communities.

Economic evaluation of an HIV prevention intervention for seropositive injection drug users.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of Intervention for HIV-Seropositive injection drug users--Research and Evaluation (INSPIRE), designed to reduce risky sexual and needle-sharing behaviors in research sites in four US cities (2001-2003). METHODS: We collected data on program and participant costs. We used a mathematical model to estimate the number of sex partners of injection drug users expected to become infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (with and without intervention), cost of treatment for sex partners who became infected, and the effect of infection on partners' quality-adjusted life expectancy. We determined the minimum effect that INSPIRE must have on condom use among participants for the intervention to be cost-saving (intervention cost less than savings from averted HIV infections) or cost-effective (net cost per quality-adjusted life year saved less than $50,000). RESULTS: The intervention cost was $870 per participant. It would be cost-saving if it led to 53 percent reduction in the proportion of participants who had any unprotected sex in 1 year and cost-effective with 17 percent reduction. If behavior change lasted 3 months, the cost-effectiveness threshold was 66 percent; if 3 years, the threshold was 6 percent. CONCLUSIONS: Although cost-saving thresholds may not be achievable by the intervention, we anticipate that cost-effectiveness thresholds will be attained.

Race/ethnic disparities in HIV testing and knowledge about treatment for HIV/AIDS: United States, 2001.

In the United States, access to HIV care has remained suboptimal for people of color. To assess racial disparities in HIV testing and knowledge about treatment for HIV/AIDS in the United States, we analyzed the 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We obtained the percentage of respondents aged 18 to 64 years who: (1) were tested for HIV ever and recently (in the past 12 months) excluding for blood donations and (2) responded "true" to the statement, "There are medical treatments available that are intended to help a person who is infected with HIV to live longer." We calculated the difference in rates of HIV testing and knowledge about treatment between blacks or Latinos compared to whites. Overall, of the 162,962 respondents, 44.7% had been tested for HIV and 12.8% were tested in the past year. Overall, 86.4% answered "true" to the statement on treatment for HIV/AIDS. HIV testing rates were significantly lower among whites (ever, 42.4%; recent, 10.8%) than blacks (ever, 59.7%; recent, 23.4%) or Latinos (ever 45.6%, recent 14.8%). Compared to knowledge among whites (89.6%), knowledge level was, lower among blacks (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.52, 0.64) and Latinos (OR = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.59, 0.75) even after adjusting for sociodemographics and HIV testing status. The knowledge gap among blacks compared to whites decreased with increasing income and education. We conclude that knowledge about the availability of antiretroviral treatment was high overall. Compared to whites, blacks, and latinos had significantly higher HIV testing rates but significantly lower knowledge about antiretrovirals.