Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing provides critical information to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments and vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we estimated the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times (TAT) on variant detection in 167 countries. Most countries submit genomes >21 days after sample collection, and 77% of low and middle income countries sequenced <0.5% of their cases. We found that sequencing at least 0.5% of the cases, with a TAT <21 days, could be a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact our ability to quickly detect SARS-CoV-2 variants, and undermine the global pandemic preparedness.

Neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 by antibodies elicited through natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: an immunological study.

BACKGROUND: Mutations accrued by SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1-first detected in Brazil in early January, 2021-include amino acid changes in the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike protein that also are reported in other variants of concern, including B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. We aimed to investigate whether isolates of wild-type P.1 lineage SARS-CoV-2 can escape from neutralising antibodies generated by a polyclonal immune response. METHODS: We did an immunological study to assess the neutralising effects of antibodies on lineage P.1 and lineage B isolates of SARS-CoV-2, using plasma samples from patients previously infected with or vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. Two specimens (P.1/28 and P.1/30) containing SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 (as confirmed by viral genome sequencing) were obtained from nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected from patients in Manaus, Brazil, and compared against an isolate of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B (SARS.CoV2/SP02.2020) recovered from a patient in Brazil in February, 2020. Isolates were incubated with plasma samples from 21 blood donors who had previously had COVID-19 and from a total of 53 recipients of the chemically inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine CoronaVac: 18 individuals after receipt of a single dose and an additional 20 individuals (38 in total) after receipt of two doses (collected 17-38 days after the most recent dose); and 15 individuals who received two doses during the phase 3 trial of the vaccine (collected 134-230 days after the second dose). Antibody neutralisation of P.1/28, P.1/30, and B isolates by plasma samples were compared in terms of median virus neutralisation titre (VNT50, defined as the reciprocal value of the sample dilution that showed 50% protection against cytopathic effects). FINDINGS: In terms of VNT50, plasma from individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 had an 8·6 times lower neutralising capacity against the P.1 isolates (median VNT50 30 [IQR <20-45] for P.1/28 and 30 [<20-40] for P.1/30) than against the lineage B isolate (260 [160-400]), with a binominal model showing significant reductions in lineage P.1 isolates compared with the lineage B isolate (p≤0·0001). Efficient neutralisation of P.1 isolates was not seen with plasma samples collected from individuals vaccinated with a first dose of CoronaVac 20-23 days earlier (VNT50s below the limit of detection [<20] for most plasma samples), a second dose 17-38 days earlier (median VNT50 24 [IQR <20-25] for P.1/28 and 28 [<20-25] for P.1/30), or a second dose 134-260 days earlier (all VNT50s below limit of detection). Median VNT50s against the lineage B isolate were 20 (IQR 20-30) after a first dose of CoronaVac 20-23 days earlier, 75 (<20-263) after a second dose 17-38 days earlier, and 20 (<20-30) after a second dose 134-260 days earlier. In plasma collected 17-38 days after a second dose of CoronaVac, neutralising capacity against both P.1 isolates was significantly decreased (p=0·0051 for P.1/28 and p=0·0336 for P.1/30) compared with that against the lineage B isolate. All data were corroborated by results obtained through plaque reduction neutralisation tests. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 might escape neutralisation by antibodies generated in response to polyclonal stimulation against previously circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2. Continuous genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 combined with antibody neutralisation assays could help to guide national immunisation programmes. FUNDING: São Paulo Research Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and Funding Authority for Studies, Medical Research Council, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Emergence of the Asian lineage of Zika virus in Angola: an outbreak investigation.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus infections and suspected microcephaly cases have been reported in Angola since late 2016, but no data are available about the origins, epidemiology, and diversity of the virus. We aimed to investigate the emergence and circulation of Zika virus in Angola. METHODS: Diagnostic samples collected by the Angolan Ministry of Health as part of routine arboviral surveillance were tested by real-time reverse transcription PCR by the Instituto Nacional de Investigação em Saúde (Ministry of Health, Luanda, Angola). To identify further samples positive for Zika virus and appropriate for genomic sequencing, we also tested samples from a 2017 study of people with HIV in Luanda. Portable sequencing was used to generate Angolan Zika virus genome sequences from three people positive for Zika virus infection by real-time reverse transcription PCR, including one neonate with microcephaly. Genetic and mobility data were analysed to investigate the date of introduction and geographical origin of Zika virus in Angola. Brain CT and MRI, and serological assays were done on a child with microcephaly to confirm microcephaly and assess previous Zika virus infection. FINDINGS: Serum samples from 54 people with suspected acute Zika virus infection, 76 infants with suspected microcephaly, 24 mothers of infants with suspected microcephaly, 336 patients with suspected dengue virus or chikungunya virus infection, and 349 samples from the HIV study were tested by real-time reverse transcription PCR. Four cases identified between December, 2016, and June, 2017, tested positive for Zika virus. Analyses of viral genomic and human mobility data suggest that Zika virus was probably introduced to Angola from Brazil between July, 2015, and June, 2016. This introduction probably initiated local circulation of Zika virus in Angola that continued until at least June, 2017. The infant with microcephaly in whom CT and MRI were done had brain abnormalities consistent with congenital Zika syndrome and serological evidence for Zika virus infection. INTERPRETATION: Our analyses show that autochthonous transmission of the Asian lineage of Zika virus has taken place in Africa. Zika virus surveillance and surveillance of associated cases of microcephaly throughout the continent is crucial. FUNDING: Royal Society, Wellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund (UK Research and Innovation), Africa Oxford, John Fell Fund, Oxford Martin School, European Research Council, Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia/Ministério da Saúde/National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, and Ministério da Educação/Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior.

Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak.

Genetic analyses have provided important insights into Ebola virus spread during the recent West African outbreak, but their implications for specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using a collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show that long-distance dispersal events were not crucial for epidemic expansion and that preventing viral lineage movement to any given administrative area would, in most cases, have had little impact. However, major urban areas were critical in attracting and disseminating the virus: preventing viral lineage movement to all three capitals simultaneously would have contained epidemic size to one-third. We also show that announcements of border closures were followed by a significant but transient effect on international virus dispersal. By quantifying the hypothetical impact of different intervention strategies, as well as the impact of barriers on dispersal frequency, our study illustrates how phylodynamic analyses can help to address specific epidemiological and outbreak control questions.

Exact Bayesian inference for phylogenetic birth-death models.

Motivation: Inferring the rates of change of a population from a reconstructed phylogeny of genetic sequences is a central problem in macro-evolutionary biology, epidemiology and many other disciplines. A popular solution involves estimating the parameters of a birth-death process (BDP), which links the shape of the phylogeny to its birth and death rates. Modern BDP estimators rely on random Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer these rates. Such methods, while powerful and scalable, cannot be guaranteed to converge, leading to results that may be hard to replicate or difficult to validate. Results: We present a conceptually and computationally different parametric BDP inference approach using flexible and easy to implement Snyder filter (SF) algorithms. This method is deterministic so its results are provable, guaranteed and reproducible. We validate the SF on constant rate BDPs and find that it solves BDP likelihoods known to produce robust estimates. We then examine more complex BDPs with time-varying rates. Our estimates compare well with a recently developed parametric MCMC inference method. Lastly, we perform model selection on an empirical Agamid species phylogeny, obtaining results consistent with the literature. The SF makes no approximations, beyond those required for parameter quantization and numerical integration and directly computes the posterior distribution of model parameters. It is a promising alternative inference algorithm that may serve either as a standalone Bayesian estimator or as a useful diagnostic reference for validating more involved MCMC strategies. Availability and implementation: The Snyder filter is implemented in Matlab and the time-varying BDP models are simulated in R. The source code and data are freely available at https://github.com/kpzoo/snyder-birth-death-code. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Optimal point process filtering and estimation of the coalescent process.

The coalescent process is a widely used approach for inferring the demographic history of a population, from samples of its genetic diversity. Several parametric and non-parametric coalescent inference methods, involving Markov chain Monte Carlo, Gaussian processes, and other algorithms, already exist. However, these techniques are not always easy to adapt and apply, thus creating a need for alternative methodologies. We introduce the Bayesian Snyder filter as an easily implementable and flexible minimum mean square error estimator for parametric demographic functions on fixed genealogies. By reinterpreting the coalescent as a self-exciting Markov process, we show that the Snyder filter can be applied to both isochronously and heterochronously sampled datasets. We analytically solve the filter equations for the constant population size Kingman coalescent, derive expressions for its mean squared estimation error, and estimate its robustness to prior distribution specification. For populations with deterministically time-varying size we numerically solve the Snyder equations, and test this solution on common demographic models. We find that the Snyder filter accurately recovers the true demographic history for these models. We also apply the filter to a well-studied, dataset of hepatitis C virus sequences and show that the filter compares well to a popular phylodynamic inference method. The Snyder filter is an exact (given discretised priors, it does not approximate the posterior) and direct Bayesian estimation method that has the potential to become a useful alternative tool for coalescent inference.

New findings regarding the epidemic history and population dynamics of Japan-indigenous genotype 3 hepatitis E virus inferred by molecular evolution.

BACKGROUND: Since previous studies have investigated the population dynamics of Japan-indigenous genotype 3 hepatitis E virus (HEV) using virus sequences, more nucleotide sequences have been determined, and new techniques have been developed for such analysis. AIMS: To prevent future hepatitis E epidemic in Japan, this study aimed to elucidate the cause of past HEV expansion. METHODS: The epidemic history of Japan-indigenous genotype 3 HEV was determined using the coalescent analysis framework. Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) and Bayesian estimate of phylogeny with relaxed molecular clock models were calculated using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. RESULTS: Japan-indigenous strains consist of New World strains (subtype 3a), Japanese strains (3b) and European strains (3e). The oldest lineage, 3b, appeared around 1929. Lineages 3a and 3e appeared around 1960. BSPs indicated similar radical population growth of the 3a and 3b lineages from 1960 to 1980. CONCLUSIONS: Population dynamics of the three lineages shared some common characteristics, but had distinguishing features. The appearance of 3a and 3e lineages coincides with the increase of large-race pig importation from Europe and the USA after 1960. The epidemic phase of 3a and 3b strains from 1960 to 1980 could be related to increased opportunity for HEV infection arising from large-scale pig breeding since 1960. Our observations revealed new findings concerning the close relationship between the epidemic history of Japan-indigenous genotype 3 HEV and the improvement of the Japanese pig industry. Infection control in pig farms should be an effective method of preventing HEV infection in humans.

Testing spatiotemporal hypothesis of bacterial evolution using methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST239 genome-wide data within a bayesian framework.

Staphylococcus aureus is a common cause of infections that has undergone rapid global spread over recent decades. Formal phylogeographic methods have not yet been applied to the molecular epidemiology of bacterial pathogens because the limited genetic diversity of data sets based on individual genes usually results in poor phylogenetic resolution. Here, we investigated a whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data set of health care-associated Methicillin-resistant S. aureus sequence type 239 (HA-MRSA ST239) strains, which we analyzed using Markov spatial models that incorporate geographical sampling distributions. The reconstructed timescale indicated a temporal origin of this strain shortly after the introduction of Methicillin, followed by global pandemic spread. The estimate of the temporal origin was robust to the molecular clock, coalescent prior, full/intergenic/synonymous SNP inclusion, and correction for excluded invariant site patterns. Finally, phylogeographic analyses statistically supported the role of human movement in the global dissemination of HA-MRSA ST239, although it was unable to conclusively resolve the location of the root. This study demonstrates that bacterial genomes can indeed contain sufficient evolutionary information to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics of transmission. Future applications of this approach to other bacterial strains may provide valuable epidemiological insights that may justify the cost of genome-wide typing.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 circulating recombinant forms 08_BC and 07_BC in Asia.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) CRF08_BC and CRF07_BC are two major recombinants descended from subtypes B' and C. Despite their massive epidemic impact in China, their migration patterns and divergence times remain unknown. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses were performed on 228 HIV-1 sequences representing CRF08_BC, CRF07_BC, and subtype C strains from different locations across China, India, and Myanmar. Genome-specific rates of evolution and divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework under various evolutionary models. CRF08_BC originated in 1990.3 (95% credible region [CR], 1988.6 to 1991.9) in Yunnan province before spreading to Guangxi (south) and Liaoning (northeast) around 1995. Inside Guangxi region, the eastward expansion of CRF08_BC continued from Baise city (west) to Binyang (central) between 1997 and 1998 and later spread into Pingxiang around 1999 in the south, mainly through injecting drug users. Additionally, CRF07_BC diverged from its common ancestor in 1993.3 (95% CR, 1991.2 to 1995.2) before crossing the border into southern Taiwan in late 1990s. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that both CRF08_BC and CRF07_BC can trace their origins to Yunnan. The parental Indian subtype C lineage likely entered China around 1981.2 (95% CR, 1976.7 to 1985.9). Using a multiple unlinked locus model, we also showed that the dates of divergence calculated in this study may not be significantly affected by intrasubtype recombination among different lineages. This is the first phylodynamic study depicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV/AIDS in East Asia.