The severity assessment of Parkinson's disease based on plasma inflammatory factors and third ventricle width by transcranial sonography.

BACKGROUND: Predicting Parkinson's disease (PD) can provide patients with targeted therapies. However, disease severity can be roughly evaluated in clinical practice based on the patient's symptoms and signs. OBJECTIVE: The current study attempted to explore the factors linked with PD severity and construct a predictive model. METHOD: The PD patients and healthy controls were recruited from our study center while recording their basic demographic information. The serum inflammatory markers levels, such as Cystatin C (Cys C), C-reactive protein (CRP), RANTES (regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted), Interleukin-10 (IL-10), and Interleukin-6 (IL-6) were determined for all the participants. PD patients were categorized into early and mid-advanced groups based on the Hoehn and Yahr (H-Y) scale and evaluated using PD-related scales. LASSO logistic regression analysis (Model C) helped select variables based on clinical scale evaluations, serum inflammatory factor levels, and transcranial sonography measurements. The optimal harmonious model coefficient λ was determined via 10-fold cross-validation. Moreover, Model C was compared with multivariate (Model A) and stepwise (Model B) logistic regression. The area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operator characteristic (ROC), brier score, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) helped determine the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model, followed by configuring a forest plot and column chart. RESULTS: The study included 113 healthy individuals and 102 PD patients, with 26 early and 76 mid-advanced patients. Univariate analysis of variance screened out statistically significant differences among inflammatory markers Cys C and RANTES. The average Cys C level in the mid-advanced stage was significantly higher than in the early stage (p < 0.001) but not for RANTES (p = 0.740). The LASSO logistic regression model (λ.1se = 0.061) associated with UPDRS-I, UPDRS-II, UPDRS-III, HAMA, PDQ-39, and Cys C as the included independent variables revealed that the Model C discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.968, Brier = 0.049) were superior to Model A (AUC = 0.926, Brier = 0.079) and Model B (AUC = 0.929, Brier = 0.071) models. CONCLUSION: The study results show multiple factors are linked with PD assessment. Moreover, the inflammatory marker Cys C and transcranial sonography measurement could objectively predict PD symptom severity, helping doctors monitor PD evolution in patients while targeting interventions.

China's Economic Forecast Based on Machine Learning and Quantitative Easing.

In this paper, six variables, including export value, real exchange rate, Chinese GDP, and US IPI, and their seasonal variables, are used as determinants to model and forecast China's export value to the US using three methods: BP neural network, ARIMA, and AR-GARCH. Error indicators were chosen to compare the simulated and predicted results of the three models with the real values. It is found that the results of all three models are satisfactory, although there are some differences in their simulation and forecasting capabilities, but the ARIMA model has a clear advantage. This paper analyses the reasons for these results and proposes suggestions for improving China's exports in the context of the models.

[The value of 5-HTT gene polymorphism for the assessment and prediction of male adolescence violence].

OBJECTIVE: To establish an adolescent violence crime prediction model, and to assess the value of serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene polymorphism for the assessment and prediction of violent crime. METHODS: Investigative tools were used to analyze the difference in personality dimensions, social support, coping styles, aggressiveness, impulsivity, and family condition scale between 223 adolescents with violence behavior and 148 adolescents without violence behavior. The distribution of 5-HTT gene polymorphisms (5-HTTLPR and 5-HTTVNTR) was compared between the two groups. The role of 5-HTT gene polymorphism on adolescent personality, impulsion and aggression scale also was also analyzed. Stepwise logistic regression was used to establish a predictive model for adolescent violent crime. RESULTS: Significant difference was found between the violence group and the control group on multiple dimensions of psychology and environment scales. However, no statistical difference was found with regard to the 5-HTT genotypes and alleles between adolescents with violent behaviors and normal controls. The rate of prediction accuracy was not significantly improved when 5-HTT gene polymorphism was taken into the model. CONCLUSION: The violent crime of adolescents was closely related with social and environmental factors. No association was found between 5-HTT polymorphisms and adolescent violence criminal behavior.