RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination is considered a potentially effective strategy for controlling the disease. The objective of this study is to estimate the number of people with a high risk of morbidity and those who should be prioritized in immunization planning in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The population at risk by age was identified from the national census data of 2018. Various sources were identified to obtain information on the number of patients with different comorbidities, including heart failure, diabetes, chronic kidney failure, cancers, HIV infection, and obesity. Sources were also identified to estimate the number of health workers, teachers and military and police force personnel. RESULTS: By 2021, Colombia is estimated to have a total of 51,049,498 inhabitants, of whom 14% will be people over 60 years of age. Additionally, of the people with comorbidities younger than 60 years old, 5,233,241 inhabitants are expected to be obese, 592,726 are expected to have diabetes mellitus, 216,389 are expected to have chronic kidney disease, and 521,263 are expected to have heart failure, totaling 15,055,697 individuals. Combining the high-priority groups and health workers, a projected 20 million people will have mortality risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: For Colombia's vaccination strategy to have an impact on reducing mortality, population groups with risk factors, corresponding to approximately 15 million inhabitants, as well as essential workers should be prioritized.