Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age and Sex Normalization of Intestinal Permeability Measures for the Improved Assessment of Enteropathy in Infancy and Early Childhood: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to describe changes in intestinal permeability in early childhood in diverse epidemiologic settings. METHODS: In a birth cohort study, the lactulose:mannitol (L:M) test was administered to 1980 children at 4 time points in the first 24 months of life in 8 countries. Data from the Brazil site with an incidence of diarrhea similar to that seen in the United States and no growth faltering was used as an internal study reference to derive age- and sex-specific z scores for mannitol and lactulose recoveries and the L:M ratio. RESULTS: A total of 6602 tests demonstrated mannitol recovery, lactulose recovery, and the L:M ratio were associated with country, sex, and age. There was heterogeneity in the recovery of both probes between sites with mean mannitol recovery ranging for 1.34% to 5.88%, lactulose recovery of 0.19% to 0.58%, and L:M ratios 0.10 to 0.17 in boys of 3 months of age across different sites. We observed strong sex-specific differences in both mannitol and lactulose recovery, with boys having higher recovery of both probes. Alterations in intestinal barrier function increased in most sites from 3 to 9 months of age and plateaued or diminished from 9 to 15 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in recovery of the probes differ markedly in different epidemiologic contexts in children living in the developing world. The rate of change in the L:M-z ratio was most rapid and consistently disparate from the reference standard in the period between 6 and 9 months of age, suggesting that this is a critical period of physiologic impact of enteropathy in these populations.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiology and Impact of Campylobacter Infection in Children in 8 Low-Resource Settings: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogen infections have been associated with enteric dysfunction and impaired growth in children in low-resource settings. In a multisite birth cohort study (MAL-ED), we describe the epidemiology and impact of Campylobacter infection in the first 2 years of life. METHODS: Children were actively followed up until 24 months of age. Diarrheal and nondiarrheal stool samples were collected and tested by enzyme immunoassay for Campylobacter Stool and blood samples were assayed for markers of intestinal permeability and inflammation. RESULTS: A total of 1892 children had 7601 diarrheal and 26 267 nondiarrheal stool samples tested for Campylobacter We describe a high prevalence of infection, with most children (n = 1606; 84.9%) having a Campylobacter-positive stool sample by 1 year of age. Factors associated with a reduced risk of Campylobacter detection included exclusive breastfeeding (risk ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, .47-.67), treatment of drinking water (0.76; 0.70-0.83), access to an improved latrine (0.89; 0.82-0.97), and recent macrolide antibiotic use (0.68; 0.63-0.74). A high Campylobacter burden was associated with a lower length-for-age Z score at 24 months (-1.82; 95% confidence interval, -1.94 to -1.70) compared with a low burden (-1.49; -1.60 to -1.38). This association was robust to confounders and consistent across sites. Campylobacter infection was also associated with increased intestinal permeability and intestinal and systemic inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter was prevalent across diverse settings and associated with growth shortfalls. Promotion of exclusive breastfeeding, drinking water treatment, improved latrines, and targeted antibiotic treatment may reduce the burden of Campylobacter infection and improve growth in children in these settings.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

Sentinel hospital-based surveillance for assessment of burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the burden and molecular epidemiology of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children hospitalized with severe acute watery diarrhea in Pakistan prior to introduction of rotavirus vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out over a period of two years from 2006 - 2008 at five sentinel hospitals in the cities of Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Peshawar. Stool samples collected from children under five years of age hospitalized with severe acute watery diarrhea were tested for rotavirus antigen via enzyme immunoassay (EIA) (IDEA REF K6020 Oxoid Ltd (Ely), Cambridge, United Kingdom). A subset of EIA positive stool samples were further processed for genotyping. RESULTS: 6679 children were enrolled and stool specimens of 2039 (30.5%) were positive for rotavirus. Rotavirus positivity ranged from 16.3% to 39.4% in the 5 hospitals with highest positivity in Lahore. 1241 (61%) of all rotavirus cases were in infants under one year of age. Among the strains examined for G-serotypes, the occurrence of G1, G2, G9 and G4 strains was found to be 28%, 24%, 14% and 13%, respectively. Among P-types, the most commonly occurring strains were P6 (31.5%) followed by P8 (20%) and P4 (12%). Prevalent rotavirus genotype in hospitalized children of severe diarrhea were G1P[8] 11.6% (69/593), followed by G2P[4] 10.4% (62/593), and G4P[6] 10.1% (60/593). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one third of children hospitalized with severe gastroenteritis in urban centers in Pakistan have rotavirus. Introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Pakistan's national immunization program could prevent many severe episodes and diarrheal deaths.

Development and assessment of molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens causing childhood diarrhoea: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea can be caused by many pathogens that are difficult to assay in the laboratory. Molecular diagnostic techniques provide a uniform method to detect and quantify candidate enteropathogens. We aimed to develop and assess molecular tests for identification of enteropathogens and their association with disease. METHODS: We developed and assessed molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens across three platforms-PCR-Luminex, multiplex real-time PCR, and TaqMan array card-at five laboratories worldwide. We judged the analytical and clinical performance of these molecular techniques against comparator methods (bacterial culture, ELISA, and PCR) using 867 diarrhoeal and 619 non-diarrhoeal stool specimens. We also measured molecular quantities of pathogens to predict the association with diarrhoea, by univariate logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: The molecular tests showed very good analytical and clinical performance at all five laboratories. Comparator methods had limited sensitivity compared with the molecular techniques (20-85% depending on the target) but good specificity (median 97·3%, IQR 96·5-98·9; mean 95·2%, SD 9·1). Positive samples by comparator methods usually had higher molecular quantities of pathogens than did negative samples, across almost all platforms and for most pathogens (p<0·05). The odds ratio for diarrhoea at a given quantity (measured by quantification cycle, Cq) showed that for most pathogens associated with diarrhoea-including Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli, Cryptosporidium spp, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, heat-stable enterotoxigenic E coli, rotavirus, Shigella spp and enteroinvasive E coli, and Vibrio cholerae-the strength of association with diarrhoea increased at higher pathogen loads. For example, Shigella spp at a Cq range of 15-20 had an odds ratio of 8·0 (p<0·0001), but at a Cq range of 25-30 the odds ratio fell to 1·7 (p=0·043). INTERPRETATION: Molecular diagnostic tests can be implemented successfully and with fidelity across laboratories around the world. In the case of diarrhoea, these techniques can detect pathogens with high sensitivity and ascribe diarrhoeal associations based on quantification, including in mixed infections, providing rich and unprecedented measurements of infectious causes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Next Generation Molecular Diagnostics Project.

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS: The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS: We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION: Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.