Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning.

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

Utility of Wrist-Wearable Data for Assessing Pain, Sleep, and Anxiety Outcomes After Traumatic Stress Exposure.

Importance: Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae after traumatic stress exposure are common and have higher incidence among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Pain, depression, avoidance of trauma reminders, reexperiencing trauma, anxiety, hyperarousal, sleep disruption, and nightmares have been reported. Wrist-wearable devices with accelerometers capable of assessing 24-hour rest-activity characteristics are prevalent and may have utility in measuring these outcomes. Objective: To evaluate whether wrist-wearable devices can provide useful biomarkers for recovery after traumatic stress exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were analyzed from a diverse cohort of individuals seen in the emergency department after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure, as part of the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study. Participants recruited from 27 emergency departments wore wrist-wearable devices for 8 weeks, beginning in the emergency department, and completed serial assessments of neuropsychiatric symptoms. A total of 19 019 patients were screened. Of these, 3040 patients met study criteria, provided informed consent, and completed baseline assessments. A total of 2021 provided data from wrist-wearable devices, completed the 8-week assessment, and were included in this analysis. The data were randomly divided into 2 equal parts (n = 1010) for biomarker identification and validation. Data were collected from September 2017 to January 2020, and data were analyzed from May 2020 to November 2022. Exposures: Participants were recruited for the study after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure (most commonly motor vehicle collision). Main Outcomes and Measures: Rest-activity characteristics were derived and validated from wrist-wearable devices associated with specific self-reported symptom domains at a point in time and changes in symptom severity over time. Results: Of 2021 included patients, 1257 (62.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 35.8 (13.0) years. Eight wrist-wearable device biomarkers for symptoms of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae exceeded significance thresholds in the derivation cohort. One of these, reduced 24-hour activity variance, was associated with greater pain severity (r = -0.14; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.07). Changes in 6 rest-activity measures were associated with changes in pain over time, and changes in the number of transitions between sleep and wake over time were associated with changes in pain, sleep, and anxiety. Simple cutoffs for these biomarkers identified individuals with good recovery for pain (positive predictive value [PPV], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.82-0.88), sleep (PPV, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.59-0.67, and anxiety (PPV, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.72-0.80) with high predictive value. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that wrist-wearable device biomarkers may have utility as screening tools for pain, sleep, and anxiety symptom outcomes after trauma exposure in high-risk populations.

No diversion in Western Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Massachusetts (MA) instituted a moratorium on ambulance diversion ("No Diversion") on January 1, 2009. STUDY OBJECTIVES: Determine whether No Diversion was associated with changes in Emergency Department (ED) throughput measures. DESIGN: Comparison of three 3-month periods. Period 1: 1 year prior (January-March 2008); Period 2: 3 months prior (October-December 2008); Period 3: 3 months after (January-March 2009). SETTING: Seven EDs in Western MA; two - including the only Level I Trauma Center - were "high" diversion (≥562 h/year) and 5 were "low" diversion (≤260 h/year). For "all," "high" diversion and "low" diversion ED groups, we compared mean monthly throughput measures, including: 1) total volume, 2) number of admissions, 3) number of elopements, 4) length of stay for all, admitted and discharged patients. Mean absolute and percent changes were estimated using mixed-effects regression analysis. Linear mixed models were run for "all," "high" and "low" diversion EDs comparing means of changes between periods. Results are presented as mean change per month in number and percent, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. We specified that a clinically significant effect of No Diversion had to meet two criteria: 1) there was a consistent difference in the means for both the Period 1 vs. Period 3 comparison and the Period 2 vs. Period 3 comparison, and 2) both comparisons had to achieve statistical significance at p ≤ 0.01. RESULTS: According to pre-determined criteria, no clinically significant changes were found in any ED group in mean monthly volume, admissions, elopements, or length-of-stay for any patient disposition group. CONCLUSION: No Diversion was not associated with significant changes in throughput measures in "all," "high" diversion and "low" diversion EDs.

Blood cultures do not change management in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if blood cultures identify organisms that are not appropriately treated with initial empiric antibiotics in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia, and to calculate the costs of blood cultures and cost savings realized by changing to narrower-spectrum antibiotics based on the results. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study conducted in an urban academic emergency department (ED). Patients with an ED and final diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia admitted between January 1, 2001, and August 30, 2003, were eligible when the results of at least one set of blood cultures obtained in the ED were available. Exclusion criteria included documented human immunodeficiency virus infection, immunosuppressive illness, chronic renal failure, chronic corticosteroid therapy, documented hospitalization within seven days before ED visit, transfer from another hospital, nursing home residency, and suspected aspiration pneumonia. The cost of blood cultures in all patients was calculated. The cost of the antibiotic regimens administered was compared with narrower-spectrum and less expensive alternatives based on the results. RESULTS: A total of 480 patients were eligible, and 191 were excluded. Thirteen (4.5%) of the 289 enrolled patients had true bacteremia; the organisms isolated were sensitive to the empiric antibiotics initially administered in all 13 cases (100%; 95% confidence interval = 75% to 100%). Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae were isolated in 11 and two patients, respectively. The potential savings of changing the antibiotic regimens to narrower-spectrum alternatives was only 170 dollars. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate empiric antibiotics were administered in all bacteremic patients. Antibiotic regimens were rarely changed based on blood culture results, and the potential savings from changes were minimal.