Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Estimating the burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome through a rubella immunity assessment among pregnant women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Potential impact on vaccination policy.

BACKGROUND: Rubella-containing vaccines (RCV) are not yet part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) vaccination program; however RCV introduction is planned before 2020. Because documentation of DRC's historical burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) has been minimal, estimates of the burden of rubella virus infection and of CRS would help inform the country's strategy for RCV introduction. METHODS: A rubella antibody seroprevalence assessment was conducted using serum collected during 2008-2009 from 1605 pregnant women aged 15-46years attending 7 antenatal care sites in 3 of DRC's provinces. Estimates of age- and site-specific rubella antibody seroprevalence, population, and fertility rates were used in catalytic models to estimate the incidence of CRS per 100,000 live births and the number of CRS cases born in 2013 in DRC. RESULTS: Overall 84% (95% CI 82, 86) of the women tested were estimated to be rubella antibody seropositive. The association between age and estimated antibody seroprevalence, adjusting for study site, was not significant (p=0.10). Differences in overall estimated seroprevalence by study site were observed indicating variation by geographical area (p⩽0.03 for all). Estimated seroprevalence was similar for women declaring residence in urban (84%) versus rural (83%) settings (p=0.67). In 2013 for DRC nationally, the estimated incidence of CRS was 69/100,000 live births (95% CI 0, 186), corresponding to 2886 infants (95% CI 342, 6395) born with CRS. CONCLUSIONS: In the 3 provinces, rubella virus transmission is endemic, and most viral exposure and seroconversion occurs before age 15years. However, approximately 10-20% of the women were susceptible to rubella virus infection and thus at risk for having an infant with CRS. This analysis can guide plans for introduction of RCV in DRC. Per World Health Organization recommendations, introduction of RCV should be accompanied by a campaign targeting all children 9months to 14years of age as well as vaccination of women of child bearing age through routine services.

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000-2010 for each country, region and globally. RESULTS: The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4-61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46-195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56-235) and 121 (95% CI: 31-238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000-80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000-97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000-158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000-169,000) in 1996. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.

Systematic Review of the Manifestations of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in Infants and Characterization of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs).

Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) continues to cause disability among unvaccinated populations in countries with no or insufficient rubella vaccine coverage to prevent transmission. We systematically reviewed the literature on birth outcomes associated with CRS to estimate the duration, severity, and frequency of combinations of morbidities. We searched PubMed, the Science Citation Index, and references from relevant articles for studies in English with primary data on the frequency of CRS manifestations for ≥20 cases and identified 65 studies representing 66 study populations that met our inclusion criteria. We abstracted available data on CRS cases with one or more hearing, heart, and/or eye defect following maternal rubella infection during the period of 0-20 weeks since the last menstrual period. We assessed the quality and weight of the available evidence using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Most of the evidence originates from studies in developed countries of cohorts of infants identified with CRS in the 1960s and 1970s, prior to the development of standardized definitions for CRS and widespread use of vaccine. We developed estimates of undiscounted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost per CRS case for countries of different income levels. The estimates ranged from approximately 19 to 39 for high-income countries assuming optimal treatment and from approximately 29 to 39 DALYs lost per CRS case in low- and lower- middle-income countries assuming minimal treatment, with the lower bound based on 2010 general global burden of disease disability weights and the upper bound based on 1990 age-specific and treatment-specific global burden of disease disability weights. Policymakers and analysts should appreciate the significant burden of disability caused by CRS as they evaluate opportunities to manage rubella.