Factors Associated with State Variation in Mortality Among Persons Living with Diagnosed HIV Infection.

In the United States, the all-cause mortality rate among persons living with diagnosed HIV infection (PLWH) is almost twice as high as among the general population. We aimed to identify amendable factors that state public health programs can influence to reduce mortality among PLWH. Using generalized estimating equations (GEE), we estimated age-group-specific models (24-34, 35-54, ≥ 55 years) to assess the association between state-level mortality rates among PLWH during 2010-2014 (National HIV Surveillance System) and amendable factors (percentage of Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) clients with viral suppression, percentage of residents with healthcare coverage, state-enacted anti-discrimination laws index) while controlling for sociodemographic nonamendable factors. Controlling for nonamendable factors, states with 5% higher viral suppression among RWHAP clients had a 3-5% lower mortality rates across all age groups [adjusted Risk Ratio (aRR): 0.95, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.92-0.99 for 24-34 years, aRR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for 35-54 years, aRR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for ≥ 55 years]; states with 5% higher health care coverage had 4-11% lower mortality rate among older age groups (aRR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.93-0.99 for 34-54 years; aRR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.81-0.97 for ≥ 55 years); and having laws that address one additional area of anti-discrimination was associated with a 2-3% lower mortality rate among older age groups (aRR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.95-1.00 for 34-54 years; aRR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99 for ≥ 55 years). The mortality rate among PLWH was lower in states with higher levels of residents with healthcare coverage, anti-discrimination laws, and viral suppression among RWHAP clients. States can influence these factors through programs and policies.

Differences in human immunodeficiency virus care and treatment among subpopulations in the United States.

IMPORTANCE: Early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, prompt linkage to and sustained care, and antiretroviral therapy are associated with reduced individual morbidity, mortality, and transmission of the virus. However, levels of these indicators may differ among population groups with HIV. Disparities in care and treatment may contribute to the higher incidence rates among groups with higher prevalence of HIV. OBJECTIVE: To examine differences between groups of persons living with HIV by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and transmission category at essential steps in the continuum of care. DESIGN AND SETTING: We obtained data from the National HIV Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to determine the number of persons living with HIV who are aware and unaware of their infection using back-calculation models. We calculated the percentage of persons linked to care within 3 months of diagnosis on the basis of CD4 level and viral load test results. We estimated the percentages of persons retained in care, prescribed antiretroviral therapy, and with viral suppression using data from the Medical Monitoring Project, a surveillance system of persons receiving HIV care in select areas representative of all such persons in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: All HIV-infected persons in the United States. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Percentage of persons living with HIV who are aware of their infection, linked to care, retained in care, receiving antiretroviral therapy, and achieving viral suppression. RESULTS: Of the estimated 1,148,200 persons living with HIV in 2009 in the United States, 81.9% had been diagnosed, 65.8% were linked to care, 36.7% were retained in care, 32.7% were prescribed antiretroviral therapy, and 25.3% had a suppressed viral load (≤200 copies/mL). Overall, 857 276 persons with HIV had not achieved viral suppression, including 74.8% of male, 79.0% of black, 73.9% of Hispanic/Latino, and 70.3% of white persons. The percentage of blacks in each step of the continuum was lower than that for whites, but these differences were not statistically significant. Among persons with HIV who were 13 to 24 years of age, only 40.5% had received a diagnosis and 30.6% were linked to care. Persons aged 25 to 34, 35 to 44, and 45 to 54 years were all significantly less likely to achieve viral suppression than were persons aged 55 to 64 years. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Significant age disparities exist at each step of the continuum of care. Additional efforts are needed to ensure that all persons with HIV receive a diagnosis and optimal care to reduce morbidity, mortality, disparities in care and treatment, and ultimately HIV transmission. Ensuring that people stay in care and receive treatment will increase the proportion of HIV-infected individuals who achieve and maintain a suppressed viral load.

HIV transmission in the United States: considerations of viral load, risk behavior, and health disparities.

Ongoing HIV transmission is related to prevalence, risk behavior and viral load among persons with HIV. We assessed the contribution of these factors to HIV transmission with transmission rate models and data reported to National HIV Surveillance and published rates of risk behavior. We also estimated numbers of persons with risk behaviors and unsuppressed viral load among sexual risk groups. The transmission rate is higher considering risk behavior (18.5 infections per 100 people with HIV) than that attributed to unsuppressed viral load (4.6). Since persons without risk behavior or suppressed viral load presumably transmit HIV at very low rates, transmission can be attributed to a combination of these factors (28.9). Service needs are greatest for MSM; their number with unsuppressed viral load engaging in unprotected discordant sex was 8 times the number of male heterosexuals and more than twice the number of female heterosexuals with high-risk transmission potential. While all persons with HIV need optimal care, treatment as prevention is most relevant when risk behavior is present among persons with unsuppressed HIV viral load.

Prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection among persons aged ≥13 years--National HIV Surveillance System, United States, 2005-2008.

In the United States, approximately 1.1 million adults and adolescents are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and, each year, another 50,000 become infected. At the end of 2008, approximately 20% of the persons living with HIV had an undiagnosed infection. Of those living with HIV at the end of 2008, nearly two thirds were racial/ethnic minorities and half were men who have sex with men (MSM). In 2007, HIV ranked fifth as a leading cause of death among persons aged 35-44 years in the United States but third among blacks or African Americans in this age group. In 40 states with longstanding confidential name-based HIV surveillance systems, 33% of the estimated 41,768 adults and adolescents diagnosed with HIV infection in 2008 developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) within 1 year and, of these, 44% received their initial diagnosis in an acute care setting, suggesting that they received HIV testing late in the course of the infection. HIV-infected persons who are unaware of their infection or who receive a late diagnosis cannot benefit fully from timely initiation of therapy and are more likely to experience HIV-related morbidity and premature mortality. In addition, persons unaware of their infection are more likely to transmit HIV to others because of a higher prevalence of high-risk sexual behaviors and higher levels of viral RNA that continue to replicate without appropriate antiretroviral treatment.

Estimated future HIV prevalence, incidence, and potential infections averted in the United States: a multiple scenario analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. METHODS: We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years). RESULTS: Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.

Safety of thimerosal-containing vaccines: a two-phased study of computerized health maintenance organization databases.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the possible toxicity of thimerosal-containing vaccines (TCVs) among infants. METHODS: A 2-phased retrospective cohort study was conducted using computerized health maintenance organization (HMO) databases. Phase I screened for associations between neurodevelopmental disorders and thimerosal exposure among 124 170 infants who were born during 1992 to 1999 at 2 HMOs (A and B). In phase II, the most common disorders associated with exposure in phase I were reevaluated among 16 717 children who were born during 1991 to 1997 in another HMO (C). Relative risks for neurodevelopmental disorders were calculated per increase of 12.5 micro g of estimated cumulative mercury exposure from TCVs in the first, third, and seventh months of life. RESULTS: In phase I at HMO A, cumulative exposure at 3 months resulted in a significant positive association with tics (relative risk [RR]: 1.89; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-3.38). At HMO B, increased risks of language delay were found for cumulative exposure at 3 months (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01-1.27) and 7 months (RR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13). In phase II at HMO C, no significant associations were found. In no analyses were significant increased risks found for autism or attention-deficit disorder. CONCLUSIONS: No consistent significant associations were found between TCVs and neurodevelopmental outcomes. Conflicting results were found at different HMOs for certain outcomes. For resolving the conflicting findings, studies with uniform neurodevelopmental assessments of children with a range of cumulative thimerosal exposures are needed.