Quantitative assessment of multiple pathogen exposure and immune dynamics at scale.

IMPORTANCE: Serology reveals exposure to pathogens, as well as the state of autoimmune and other clinical conditions. It is used to evaluate individuals and their histories and as a public health tool to track epidemics. Employing a variety of formats, studies nearly always perform serology by testing response to only one or a few antigens. However, clinical outcomes of new infections also depend on which previous infections may have occurred. We developed a high-throughput serology method that evaluates responses to hundreds of antigens simultaneously. It can be used to evaluate thousands of samples at a time and provide a quantitative readout. This tool will enable doctors to monitor which pathogens an individual has been exposed to and how that changes in the future. Moreover, public health officials could track populations and look for infectious trends among large populations. Testing many potential antigens at a time may also aid in vaccine development.

Evaluating high-cost technologies - no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence generation for the health technology assessment (HTA) of a new technology is a long and expensive process with no guarantees that the health technology will be adopted and implemented into a health-care system. This would suggest that there is a greater risk of failure for a company developing a high-cost technology and therefore incentives (such as increasing the funding available for research or additional market exclusivity) may be needed to encourage development of such technologies as has been seen with many high-cost orphan drugs. AREAS COVERED: This paper discusses some of the key issues relating to the evaluation of high-cost technologies through the use of existing HTA processes and what the challenges will be going forward. EXPERT OPINION: We propose that while the current HTA process is robust, its evolution into accommodating the incorporation of real-world data and evidence alongside a life-cycle HTA approach should better enable developers to produce the evidence required on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This should lead to reduced decision uncertainty for HTA agencies to make adoption decisions in a more timely and efficient manner. Furthermore, budget impact analysis remains important in understanding the actual financial impact on health-care systems and budgets outside of the cost-effectiveness framework used to aid decision-making.

Photodynamic Diagnosis-guided Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumour in Participants with a First Suspected Diagnosis of Intermediate- or High-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Cost-effectiveness Analysis Alongside a Randomised Controlled Trial.

Background: Recurrence of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is common after transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT). Photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) may reduce recurrence. PDD uses a photosensitiser in the bladder that causes the tumour to fluoresce to guide resection. PDD provides better diagnostic accuracy and allows more complete tumour resection. Objective: To estimate the economic efficiency of PDD-guided TURBT (PDD-TURBT) in comparison to white light-guided TURNT (WL-TURBT) in individuals with a suspected first diagnosis of NMIBC at intermediate or high risk of recurrence on the basis of routine visual assessment before being scheduled for TURBT. Design setting and participants: This is a health economic evaluation alongside a pragmatic, open-label, parallel-group randomised trial from a societal perspective. A total of 493 participants (aged ≥16 yr) were randomly allocated to PDD-TURBT (n = 244) or WL-TURBT (n = 249) in 22 UK National Health Service hospitals. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Cost effectiveness ratios were based on the use of health care resources associated with PDD-TURBT and WL-TURBT and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained within the trial. Uncertainties in key parameters were assessed using sensitivity analyses. Results and limitations: On the basis of the use of resources driven by the trial protocol, the incremental cost effectiveness of PDD-TURBT in comparison to WL-TURBT was not cost saving. At 3 yr, the total cost was £12 881 for PDD-TURBT and £12 005 for WL-TURBT. QALYs at three years were 2.087 for PDD-TURBT and 2.094 for WL-TURBT. The probability that PDD-TURBT is cost effective was never >30% above the range of societal cost-effectiveness thresholds. Conclusions: There was no evidence of a difference in either costs or QALYs over 3-yr follow-up between PDD-TURBT and WL-TURBT in individuals with suspected intermediate- or high-risk NMIBC. PDD-TURBT is not supported for the management of primary intermediate- or high-risk NMIBC. Patient summary: We assessed overall costs for two approaches for removal of bladder tumours in noninvasive cancer and measured quality-adjusted life years gained for each. We found that use of a photosensitiser in the bladder was not more cost effective than use of white light only during tumour removal.

Clinical and cost effectiveness of endoscopic bipolar radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of malignant biliary obstruction: a systematic review.

Background: Early evidence suggests that using radiofrequency ablation as an adjunct to standard care (i.e. endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with stenting) may improve outcomes in patients with malignant biliary obstruction. Objectives: To assess the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and potential risks of endoscopic bipolar radiofrequency ablation for malignant biliary obstruction, and the value of future research. Data sources: Seven bibliographic databases, three websites and seven trials registers were searched from 2008 until 21 January 2021. Review methods: The study inclusion criteria were as follows: patients with biliary obstruction caused by any form of unresectable malignancy; the intervention was reported as an endoscopic biliary radiofrequency ablation to ablate malignant tissue that obstructs the bile or pancreatic ducts, either to fit a stent (primary radiofrequency ablation) or to clear an obstructed stent (secondary radiofrequency ablation); the primary outcomes were survival, quality of life or procedure-related adverse events; and the study design was a controlled study, an observational study or a case report. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane tools. The primary analysis was meta-analysis of the hazard ratio of mortality. Subgroup analyses were planned according to the type of probe, the type of stent (i.e. metal or plastic) and cancer type. A de novo Markov model was developed to model cost and quality-of-life outcomes associated with radiofrequency ablation in patients with primary advanced bile duct cancer. Insufficient data were available for pancreatic cancer and secondary bile duct cancer. An NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was adopted for the analysis. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for radiofrequency ablation and the probability that radiofrequency ablation was cost-effective at different thresholds. The population expected value of perfect information was estimated in total and for the effectiveness parameters. Results: Sixty-eight studies (1742 patients) were included in the systematic review. Four studies (336 participants) were combined in a meta-analysis, which showed that the pooled hazard ratio for mortality following primary radiofrequency ablation compared with a stent-only control was 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.21 to 0.55). Little evidence relating to the impact on quality of life was found. There was no evidence to suggest an increased risk of cholangitis or pancreatitis, but radiofrequency ablation may be associated with an increase in cholecystitis. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis were that the costs of radiofrequency ablation was £2659 and radiofrequency ablation produced 0.18 quality-adjusted life-years, which was more than no radiofrequency ablation on average. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £14,392 per quality-adjusted life-year, radiofrequency ablation was likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year across most scenario analyses, with moderate uncertainty. The source of the vast majority of decision uncertainty lay in the effect of radiofrequency ablation on stent patency. Limitations: Only 6 of 18 comparative studies contributed to the survival meta-analysis, and few data were found concerning secondary radiofrequency ablation. The economic model and cost-effectiveness meta-analysis required simplification because of data limitations. Inconsistencies in standard reporting and study design were noted. Conclusions: Primary radiofrequency ablation increases survival and is likely to be cost-effective. The evidence for the impact of secondary radiofrequency ablation on survival and of quality of life is limited. There was a lack of robust clinical effectiveness data and, therefore, more information is needed for this indication. Future work: Future work investigating radiofrequency ablation must collect quality-of-life data. High-quality randomised controlled trials in secondary radiofrequency ablation are needed, with appropriate outcomes recorded. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020170233. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The bile and pancreatic ducts transport fluids to the intestines to help people digest their food properly. Some types of cancer can cause these ducts to become totally or partially blocked. We wanted to know if endoscopic radiofrequency ablation is safe and works well to treat people who have one of these blockages that cannot be removed by surgery. Radiofrequency ablation burns away a blockage by hitting it with radio waves. Endoscopic means that the radio waves are directed to the blockage using a thin, tube-like wire with a camera at the end. During radiofrequency ablation, a person might have a small tube called a stent put into their bile or pancreatic duct to keep it open or to replace an already blocked stent.

We searched for research studies that looked at (1) whether or not radiofrequency ablation was able to remove blockages from the ducts, (2) if radiofrequency ablation allowed people to live longer, (3) if patients had a better quality of life after radiofrequency ablation, (4) if radiofrequency ablation caused any side effects and (5) how much it costs to treat people with radiofrequency ablation.

We found that treatment with radiofrequency ablation before giving a person a stent helped them to live a little longer with their cancer. We did not find any evidence that radiofrequency ablation increased pain or swelling in the bile duct or pancreatic duct. Radiofrequency ablation might cause more swelling in the gall bladder than having a stent without radiofrequency ablation, but there was not enough research available for us to be certain of this.

Radiofrequency ablation before inserting a stent could be a safe option to add to treatment of bile and pancreatic duct blockages caused by cancer. There is limited research evidence and so we are unable to recommend radiofrequency ablation as a treatment for standard clinical practice.

Economic evaluations of interventions to prevent and control health-care-associated infections: a systematic review.

Almost 9 million health-care-associated infections have been estimated to occur each year in European hospitals and long-term care facilities, and these lead to an increase in morbidity, mortality, bed occupancy, and duration of hospital stay. The aim of this systematic review was to review the cost-effectiveness of interventions to limit the spread of health-care-associated infections), framed by WHO infection prevention and control core components. The Embase, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment, Cinahl, Scopus, Pediatric Economic Database Evaluation, and Global Index Medicus databases, plus grey literature were searched for studies between Jan 1, 2009, and Aug 10, 2022. Studies were included if they reported interventions including hand hygiene, personal protective equipment, national-level or facility-level infection prevention and control programmes, education and training programmes, environmental cleaning, and surveillance. The British Medical Journal checklist was used to assess the quality of economic evaluations. 67 studies were included in the review. 25 studies evaluated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus outcomes. 31 studies evaluated screening strategies. The assessed studies that met the minimum quality criteria consisted of economic models. There was some evidence that hand hygiene, environmental cleaning, surveillance, and multimodal interventions were cost-effective. There were few or no studies investigating education and training, personal protective equipment or monitoring, and evaluation of interventions. This Review provides a map of cost-effectiveness data, so that policy makers and researchers can identify the relevant data and then assess the quality and generalisability for their setting.

Oral nutritional interventions in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition worsens the health of frail older adults. Current treatments for malnutrition may include prescribed oral nutritional supplements, which are multinutrient products containing macronutrients and micronutrients. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral nutritional supplements (with or without other dietary interventions) in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and grey literature were searched from inception to 13 September 2021. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral nutritional supplements in frail older people (aged ≥ 65 years) who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition (defined as undernutrition as per National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines). Meta-analysis and network meta-analysis were undertaken, where feasible, along with a narrative synthesis. A cost-effectiveness review was reported narratively. A de novo model was developed using effectiveness evidence identified in the systematic review to estimate the cost-effectiveness of oral nutritional supplements. RESULTS: Eleven studies (n = 822 participants) were included in the effectiveness review, six of which were fully or partly funded by industry. Meta-analyses suggested positive effects of oral nutritional supplements compared with standard care for energy intake (kcal) (standardised mean difference 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.15 to 1.88; very low quality evidence) and poor mobility (mean difference 0.03, p < 0.00001, 95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.04; very low quality evidence) but no evidence of an effect for body weight (mean difference 1.31, 95% confidence interval -0.05 to 2.66; very low quality evidence) and body mass index (mean difference 0.54, 95% confidence interval -0.03 to 1.11; very low quality evidence). Pooled results for other outcomes were statistically non-significant. There was mixed narrative evidence regarding the effect of oral nutritional supplements on quality of life. Network meta-analysis could be conducted only for body weight and grip strength; there was evidence of an effect for oral nutritional supplements compared with standard care for body weight only. Study quality was mixed; the randomisation method was typically poorly reported. One economic evaluation, in a care home setting, was included. This was a well-conducted study showing that oral nutritional supplements could be cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that oral nutritional supplements may only be cost-effective for people with lower body mass index (< 21 kg/m2) using cheaper oral nutritional supplements products that require minimal staff time to administer. LIMITATIONS: The review scope was narrow in focus as few primary studies used frailty measures (or our proxy criteria). This resulted in only 11 included studies. The small evidence base and varied quality of evidence meant that it was not possible to determine accurate estimates of the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of oral nutritional supplements. Furthermore, only English-language publications were considered. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the review found little evidence of oral nutritional supplements having significant effects on reducing malnutrition or its adverse outcomes in frail older adults. FUTURE WORK: Future research should focus on independent, high-quality, adequately powered studies to investigate oral nutritional supplements alongside other nutritional interventions, with longer-term follow-up and detailed analysis of determinants, intervention components and cost-effectiveness. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020170906. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 51. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT WAS THE QUESTION?: Malnutrition, in the form of undernutrition, is very common in frail older people. Dietary advice is recommended (e.g. adding nutrients to meals) for older adults who are malnourished, while powdered or liquid supplements (oral nutritional supplements) can be prescribed to those who are malnourished or at risk of becoming malnourished. In this study, we reviewed previous studies to see if oral nutritional supplements (as a form of dietary support) work at reducing malnutrition in frail older adults and whether or not they are value for money. WHAT DID WE DO?: We searched for studies up to September 2021 on frail older people who were at risk of malnutrition or were malnourished in care homes, hospitals or the community in any country. We included studies that measured malnutrition and the consequences of malnutrition, quality of life, survival, costs and hospitalisations. We assessed the difference in malnutrition between those receiving oral nutritional supplements and those receiving usual care or other dietary (or nutritional) interventions. We also looked at the value for money of oral nutritional supplements. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We found 12 studies (11 studies looking at whether the supplements worked and one study looking at value for money). Most of which were of low quality, and many were funded by industry. Studies often did not report on longer-term effects, or how older people felt about the supplements. There was no clear or strong evidence that oral nutritional supplements worked or were value for money in reducing malnutrition or its consequences (such as the ability to perform everyday tasks). WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: There is weak evidence for oral nutritional supplements in frail older adults. Future high-quality studies should be independent, assess longer-term effects, and have better reporting on factors that influence the impacts of oral nutritional supplements.

Photodynamic versus white-light-guided resection of first-diagnosis non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: PHOTO RCT.

BACKGROUND: Around 7500 people are diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the UK annually. Recurrence following transurethral resection of bladder tumour is common, and the intensive monitoring schedule required after initial treatment has associated costs for patients and the NHS. In photodynamic diagnosis, before transurethral resection of bladder tumour, a photosensitiser that is preferentially absorbed by tumour cells is instilled intravesically. Transurethral resection of bladder tumour is then conducted under blue light, causing the photosensitiser to fluoresce. Photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour offers better diagnostic accuracy than standard white-light-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour, potentially reducing the chance of subsequent recurrence. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour. DESIGN: This was a multicentre, pragmatic, open-label, parallel-group, non-masked, superiority randomised controlled trial. Allocation was by remote web-based service, using a 1 : 1 ratio and a minimisation algorithm balanced by centre and sex. SETTING: The setting was 22 NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥ 16 years with a suspected first diagnosis of high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, no contraindications to photodynamic diagnosis and written informed consent were eligible. INTERVENTIONS: Photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour and standard white-light cystoscopy transurethral resection of bladder tumour. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary clinical outcome measure was the time to recurrence from the date of randomisation to the date of pathologically proven first recurrence (or intercurrent bladder cancer death). The primary health economic outcome was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained at 3 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 538 participants from 22 UK hospitals between 11 November 2014 and 6 February 2018. Of these, 269 were allocated to photodynamic diagnosis and 269 were allocated to white light. A total of 112 participants were excluded from the analysis because of ineligibility (n = 5), lack of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer diagnosis following transurethral resection of bladder tumour (n = 89) or early cystectomy (n = 18). In total, 209 photodynamic diagnosis and 217 white-light participants were included in the clinical end-point analysis population. All randomised participants were included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Over a median follow-up period of 21 months for the photodynamic diagnosis group and 22 months for the white-light group, there were 86 recurrences (3-year recurrence-free survival rate 57.8%, 95% confidence interval 50.7% to 64.2%) in the photodynamic diagnosis group and 84 recurrences (3-year recurrence-free survival rate 61.6%, 95% confidence interval 54.7% to 67.8%) in the white-light group (hazard ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.28; p = 0.70). Adverse event frequency was low and similar in both groups [12 (5.7%) in the photodynamic diagnosis group vs. 12 (5.5%) in the white-light group]. At 3 years, the total cost was £12,881 for photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour and £12,005 for white light. There was no evidence of differences in the use of health services or total cost at 3 years. At 3 years, the quality-adjusted life-years gain was 2.094 in the photodynamic diagnosis transurethral resection of bladder tumour group and 2.087 in the white light group. The probability that photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour was cost-effective was never > 30% over the range of society's cost-effectiveness thresholds. LIMITATIONS: Fewer patients than anticipated were correctly diagnosed with intermediate- to high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer before transurethral resection of bladder tumour and the ratio of intermediate- to high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer was higher than expected, reducing the number of observed recurrences and the statistical power. CONCLUSIONS: Photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour did not reduce recurrences, nor was it likely to be cost-effective compared with white light at 3 years. Photodynamic diagnosis-guided transurethral resection of bladder tumour is not supported in the management of primary intermediate- to high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. FUTURE WORK: Further work should include the modelling of appropriate surveillance schedules and exploring predictive and prognostic biomarkers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN84013636. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 40. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Around 7500 people are diagnosed with early-stage bladder cancer in the UK each year. Early bladder cancer is contained within the bladder and has not yet invaded the bladder's muscle wall or spread elsewhere in the body. The cancer will return (recur) in around half of people after initial treatment and they have to attend hospital for regular check-ups, with costs to both them and the NHS. The first step in treating early bladder cancer is surgery to remove the tumour. This surgery is normally performed under white light. Photodynamic diagnosis is a new technique in which a liquid is put into the patient's bladder before surgery and a blue light is used during the operation. This causes the bladder cancer to fluoresce so that it can be seen more easily by the surgeon. The Photodynamic versus white-light-guided resection of first diagnosis non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer ( PHOTO ) trial aimed to find out whether or not using photodynamic diagnosis at initial surgery would reduce how often the cancer recurred and whether or not this could reduce the cost of treating early bladder cancer. A total of 538 people with early bladder cancer who had a medium to high chance of their cancer returning after treatment were enrolled in the PHOTO trial. They were included in one of two treatment groups, at random: 269 had photodynamic surgery and 269 had standard white-light surgery. People in both groups were monitored regularly for any recurrences, with further treatment as appropriate. After 3 years, 4 out of 10 people in each group had a recurrence of their bladder cancer. We found no difference between the treatment groups in the number of people with recurrences. We found no evidence of a benefit to patients, and the total costs of photodynamic surgery were higher than those of standard white light. We therefore recommend that it is no longer used in the treatment of this group of patients.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral nutritional supplements in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current management of malnutrition can include prescribed oral nutritional supplements (ONS); however, there is uncertainty whether these supplements are effective in people who are older (≥65 years) and frail. We assessed the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and adherence and acceptability of ONS in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, five bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and CINAHL) and grey literature sources were searched from inception to Sept 13, 2021, to identify studies assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ONS (with or without other dietary interventions) in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. Multiple reviewers independently did study screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment. Quality was assessed using version 1.0 of the Cochrane risk of bias tool for randomised controlled trials (RCTs), and the BMJ Drummond checklist was used to assess the quality of the included cost-effectiveness study. A meta-analysis was done for the effectiveness review; for the other reviews, a narrative synthesis approach was used. This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42020170906. FINDINGS: Of 8492 records retrieved and screened, we included 11 RCTs involving 822 participants, six of which were fully or partly funded by industry. For the majority of the outcomes for which meta-analyses were possible (11/12), Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) assessments suggested that the evidence was of very low certainty. Results suggested that ONS might have a slightly positive effect on energy (kcal) intake (standardised mean difference 1·02 [95% CI 0·15 to 1·88]; I2=87%; four studies), protein intake (standardised mean difference 1·67 [-0·03 to 3·37; I2=97%; four studies), and mobility (mean difference 0·03 [0·02 to 0·04]; I2=0%; four studies), compared with standard care. Narrative syntheses suggested that the effect of ONS on quality of life, compared with standard care, was mixed. In the identified studies, there was very little information related to active components, determinants, or acceptability of interventions. One economic evaluation, done in a care home setting, showed that ONS could be cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: We found little evidence of ONS reducing malnutrition or its associated adverse outcomes in older people who are frail. High-quality, non-industry-funded, adequately powered studies reporting on short-term and long-term health outcomes, determinants, and participant characteristics are needed. FUNDING: UK National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (NIHR128729).

Effects of Primary Biliary Cholangitis on Quality of Life and Health Care Costs in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There have been few high-quality studies of the costs, preference-based health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and cost effectiveness of treatments for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). We aimed to estimate the marginal effects of PBC complications and symptoms, accounting for treatment, on HRQoL and the annual cost of health care in the United Kingdom (UK). These are essential components for evaluation of cost effectiveness and this information will aid in evaluation of new treatments. METHODS: Questionnaires were mailed to 4583 participants in the UK-PBC research cohort and data were collected on HRQoL and use of the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK from 2015 through 2016. HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L instrument. The annual cost of resource use was calculated using unit costs obtained from NHS sources. We performed econometric analyses to determine the effects of treatment, symptoms, complications, liver transplantation status, and patient characteristics on HRQoL and annual costs. RESULTS: In an analysis of data from 2240 participants (over 10% of all UK PBC patients), we found that PBC symptoms have a considerable effect on HRQoL. Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy was associated with significantly higher HRQoL regardless of response status. Having had a liver transplant and ascites were also independently associated with reduced HRQoL. Having had a liver transplant (US$4294) and esophageal varices (US$3401) were the factors with the two greatest mean annual costs to the NHS. Symptoms were not independently associated with cost but were associated with reduction in HRQoL for patients, indicating the lack of effective treatments for PBC symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from 2240 participants in the UK PBC, we found that HRQoL and cost estimates provide greater insight into the relative importance of PBC-related symptoms and complications. These findings provide estimates for health technology assessments of new treatments for PBC.

Secondary transfer of emergency stroke patients eligible for mechanical thrombectomy by air in rural England: economic evaluation and considerations.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is a time-sensitive emergency procedure for patients who had ischaemic stroke leading to improved health outcomes. Health systems need to ensure that MT is delivered to as many patients as quickly as possible. Using decision modelling, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of secondary transfer by helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) compared with ground emergency medical services (GEMS) of rural patients eligible for MT in England. METHODS: The model consisted of (1) a short-run decision tree with two branches, representing secondary transfer transportation strategies and (2) a long-run Markov model for a theoretical population of rural patients with a confirmed ischaemic stroke. Strategies were compared by lifetime costs: quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost per QALY gained and net monetary benefit. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored uncertainty around parameter values. RESULTS: We used the base case of early-presenting (<6 hours to arterial puncture) patient aged 75 years who had stroke to compare HEMS and GEMS. This produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28 027 when a 60 min reduction in travel time was assumed. Scenario analyses showed the importance of the reduction in travel time and futile transfers in lowering ICERs. For late presenting (>6 hours to arterial puncture), ground transportation is the dominant strategy. CONCLUSION: Our model indicates that using HEMS to transfer patients who had stroke eligible for MT from remote hospitals in England may be cost-effective when: travel time is reduced by at least 60 min compared with GEMS, and a £30 000/QALY threshold is used for decision-making. However, several other logistic considerations may impact on the use of air transportation.

Cost Consequences for the NHS of Using a Two-Step Testing Method for the Detection of Clostridium difficile with a Point of Care, Polymerase Chain Reaction Test as the First Step.

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a common healthcare-associated infection. Current practice for diagnosing CDI in the Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust involves a three-step, laboratory testing strategy using glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) enzyme immunoassay (EIA), followed by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test then a toxin EIA. However, a PCR point of care test (POCT) for the C. difficile tcdB gene for screening suspected CDI cases, may provide a more efficient way of facilitating an equally effective, two-step, testing strategy with a toxin EIA. This study evaluated the cost consequences of changing from the three-step to a two-step testing strategy. A cost-consequences model was developed to compare the costs and consequences of the two strategies. Uncertainties in the model inputs were investigated with one- and two-way sensitivity analysis. The two-step, POCT strategy was estimated to save £283,282 per 1000 hospitalized NHS patients with suspected infectious diarrhea. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the turnaround time for the POCT was the largest driver for cost savings. Providing the POCT has sufficiently high diagnostic accuracy for detecting C. difficile, the two-step, POCT strategy for CDI identification is likely to be cost saving for NHS hospitals with an offsite laboratory.

Are there socio-economic inequalities in utilization of predictive biomarker tests and biological and precision therapies for cancer? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novel biological and precision therapies and their associated predictive biomarker tests offer opportunities for increased tumor response, reduced adverse effects, and improved survival. This systematic review determined if there are socio-economic inequalities in utilization of predictive biomarker tests and/or biological and precision cancer therapies. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, PubMed, and PsycINFO were searched for peer-reviewed studies, published in English between January 1998 and December 2019. Observational studies reporting utilization data for predictive biomarker tests and/or cancer biological and precision therapies by a measure of socio-economic status (SES) were eligible. Data was extracted from eligible studies. A modified ISPOR checklist for retrospective database studies was used to assess study quality. Meta-analyses were undertaken using a random-effects model, with sub-group analyses by cancer site and drug class. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for each study. Pooled utilization ORs for low versus high socio-economic groups were calculated for test and therapy receipt. RESULTS: Among 10,722 citations screened, 62 papers (58 studies; 8 test utilization studies, 37 therapy utilization studies, 3 studies on testing and therapy, 10 studies without denominator populations or which only reported mean socio-economic status) met the inclusion criteria. Studies reported on 7 cancers, 5 predictive biomarkers tests, and 11 biological and precision therapies. Thirty-eight studies (including 1,036,125 patients) were eligible for inclusion in meta-analyses. Low socio-economic status was associated with modestly lower predictive biomarker test utilization (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.71-1.05; 10 studies) and significantly lower biological and precision therapy utilization (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75-0.91; 30 studies). Associations with therapy utilization were stronger in lung cancer (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-1.00; 6 studies), than breast cancer (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.78-1.10; 8 studies). The mean study quality score was 6.9/10. CONCLUSIONS: These novel results indicate that there are socio-economic inequalities in predictive biomarker tests and biological and precision therapy utilization. This requires further investigation to prevent differences in outcomes due to inequalities in treatment with biological and precision therapies.

The cost of providing mechanical thrombectomy in the UK NHS: a micro-costing study.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for the treatment of large vessel occlusion stroke is well established, but uncertainty remains around the true cost of delivering this treatment within the NHS. The aim of this study was to establish the cost of providing MT within the hyperacute phase of care and to explore differences in resources used and costs across different neuroscience centres in the UK. METHOD: This was a multicentre retrospective study using micro-costing methods to enable a precise assessment of the costs of MT from an NHS perspective. Data on resources used and their costs were collected from five UK neuroscience centres between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: Data were collected on 310 patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with MT. The mean total cost of providing MT and inpatient care within 24 hours was £10,846 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10,527-11,165) per patient. The main driver of cost was MT procedure costs, accounting for 73% (£7,943; 95% CI 7,649-8,237) of the total 24-hour cost. Costs were higher for patients treated under general anaesthesia (£11,048; standard deviation (SD) 2,654) than for local anaesthesia (£9,978; SD 2,654), mean difference £1,070 (95% CI 381-1,759; p=0.003); admission to an intensive care unit (ICU; £12,212; SD 3,028) against for admission elsewhere (£10,179; SD 2,415), mean difference £2,032 (95% CI 1,345-2,719; p<0001).The mean cost within 72 hours was £12,440 (95% CI 10,628-14,252). The total costs for the duration of inpatient care before discharge from a thrombectomy centre was £14,362 (95% CI 13,603-15,122). CONCLUSIONS: Major factors contributing to costs of MT for stroke include consumables and staff for intervention, use of general anaesthesia and ICU admissions. These findings can inform the reimbursement, provision and strategic planning of stroke services and aid future economic evaluations.

What works to increase attendance for diabetic retinopathy screening? An evidence synthesis and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy screening (DRS) is effective but uptake is suboptimal. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of quality improvement (QI) interventions for DRS attendance; describe the interventions in terms of QI components and behaviour change techniques (BCTs); identify theoretical determinants of attendance; investigate coherence between BCTs identified in interventions and determinants of attendance; and determine the cost-effectiveness of QI components and BCTs for improving DRS. DATA SOURCES AND REVIEW METHODS: Phase 1 - systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating interventions to increase DRS attendance (The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE and trials registers to February 2017) and coding intervention content to classify QI components and BCTs. Phase 2 - review of studies reporting factors influencing attendance, coded to theoretical domains (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and sources of grey literature to March 2016). Phase 3 - mapping BCTs (phase 1) to theoretical domains (phase 2) and an economic evaluation to determine the cost-effectiveness of BCTs or QI components. RESULTS: Phase 1 - 7277 studies were screened, of which 66 RCTs were included in the review. Interventions were multifaceted and targeted patients, health-care professionals (HCPs) or health-care systems. Overall, interventions increased DRS attendance by 12% [risk difference (RD) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10 to 0.14] compared with usual care, with substantial heterogeneity in effect size. Both DRS-targeted and general QI interventions were effective, particularly when baseline attendance levels were low. All commonly used QI components and BCTs were associated with significant improvements, particularly in those with poor attendance. Higher effect estimates were observed in subgroup analyses for the BCTs of 'goal setting (outcome, i.e. consequences)' (RD 0.26, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.36) and 'feedback on outcomes (consequences) of behaviour' (RD 0.22, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.29) in interventions targeting patients and of 'restructuring the social environment' (RD 0.19, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.26) and 'credible source' (RD 0.16, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.24) in interventions targeting HCPs. Phase 2 - 3457 studies were screened, of which 65 non-randomised studies were included in the review. The following theoretical domains were likely to influence attendance: 'environmental context and resources', 'social influences', 'knowledge', 'memory, attention and decision processes', 'beliefs about consequences' and 'emotions'. Phase 3 - mapping identified that interventions included BCTs targeting important barriers to/enablers of DRS attendance. However, BCTs targeting emotional factors around DRS were under-represented. QI components were unlikely to be cost-effective whereas BCTs with a high probability (≥ 0.975) of being cost-effective at a societal willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY included 'goal-setting (outcome)', 'feedback on outcomes of behaviour', 'social support' and 'information about health consequences'. Cost-effectiveness increased when DRS attendance was lower and with longer screening intervals. LIMITATIONS: Quality improvement/BCT coding was dependent on descriptions of intervention content in primary sources; methods for the identification of coherence of BCTs require improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Randomised controlled trial evidence indicates that QI interventions incorporating specific BCT components are associated with meaningful improvements in DRS attendance compared with usual care. Interventions generally used appropriate BCTs that target important barriers to screening attendance, with a high probability of being cost-effective. Research is needed to optimise BCTs or BCT combinations that seek to improve DRS attendance at an acceptable cost. BCTs targeting emotional factors represent a missed opportunity to improve attendance and should be tested in future studies. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016044157 and PROSPERO CRD42016032990. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Interventions to increase attendance for diabetic retinopathy screening.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence supporting the effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy screening (DRS) in reducing the risk of sight loss, attendance for screening is consistently below recommended levels. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of the review was to assess the effectiveness of quality improvement (QI) interventions that seek to increase attendance for DRS in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.Secondary objectives were:To use validated taxonomies of QI intervention strategies and behaviour change techniques (BCTs) to code the description of interventions in the included studies and determine whether interventions that include particular QI strategies or component BCTs are more effective in increasing screening attendance;To explore heterogeneity in effect size within and between studies to identify potential explanatory factors for variability in effect size;To explore differential effects in subgroups to provide information on how equity of screening attendance could be improved;To critically appraise and summarise current evidence on the resource use, costs and cost effectiveness. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ProQuest Family Health, OpenGrey, the ISRCTN, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the WHO ICTRP to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that were designed to improve attendance for DRS or were evaluating general quality improvement (QI) strategies for diabetes care and reported the effect of the intervention on DRS attendance. We searched the resources on 13 February 2017. We did not use any date or language restrictions in the searches. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included RCTs that compared any QI intervention to usual care or a more intensive (stepped) intervention versus a less intensive intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We coded the QI strategy using a modification of the taxonomy developed by Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) and BCTs using the BCT Taxonomy version 1 (BCTTv1). We used Place of residence, Race/ethnicity/culture/language, Occupation, Gender/sex, Religion, Education, Socioeconomic status, and Social capital (PROGRESS) elements to describe the characteristics of participants in the included studies that could have an impact on equity of access to health services.Two review authors independently extracted data. One review author entered the data into Review Manager 5 and a second review author checked them. Two review authors independently assessed risks of bias in the included studies and extracted data. We rated certainty of evidence using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: We included 66 RCTs conducted predominantly (62%) in the USA. Overall we judged the trials to be at low or unclear risk of bias. QI strategies were multifaceted and targeted patients, healthcare professionals or healthcare systems. Fifty-six studies (329,164 participants) compared intervention versus usual care (median duration of follow-up 12 months). Overall, DRS attendance increased by 12% (risk difference (RD) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10 to 0.14; low-certainty evidence) compared with usual care, with substantial heterogeneity in effect size. Both DRS-targeted (RD 0.17, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.22) and general QI interventions (RD 0.12, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.15) were effective, particularly where baseline DRS attendance was low. All BCT combinations were associated with significant improvements, particularly in those with poor attendance. We found higher effect estimates in subgroup analyses for the BCTs 'goal setting (outcome)' (RD 0.26, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.36) and 'feedback on outcomes of behaviour' (RD 0.22, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.29) in interventions targeting patients, and 'restructuring the social environment' (RD 0.19, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.26) and 'credible source' (RD 0.16, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.24) in interventions targeting healthcare professionals.Ten studies (23,715 participants) compared a more intensive (stepped) intervention versus a less intensive intervention. In these studies DRS attendance increased by 5% (RD 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.09; moderate-certainty evidence).Fourteen studies reporting any QI intervention compared to usual care included economic outcomes. However, only five of these were full economic evaluations. Overall, we found that there is insufficient evidence to draw robust conclusions about the relative cost effectiveness of the interventions compared to each other or against usual care.With the exception of gender and ethnicity, the characteristics of participants were poorly described in terms of PROGRESS elements. Seventeen studies (25.8%) were conducted in disadvantaged populations. No studies were carried out in low- or middle-income countries. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The results of this review provide evidence that QI interventions targeting patients, healthcare professionals or the healthcare system are associated with meaningful improvements in DRS attendance compared to usual care. There was no statistically significant difference between interventions specifically aimed at DRS and those which were part of a general QI strategy for improving diabetes care. This is a significant finding, due to the additional benefits of general QI interventions in terms of improving glycaemic control, vascular risk management and screening for other microvascular complications. It is likely that further (but smaller) improvements in DRS attendance can also be achieved by increasing the intensity of a particular QI component or adding further components.

Interventions for hyperhidrosis in secondary care: a systematic review and value-of-information analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hyperhidrosis is uncontrollable excessive sweating that occurs at rest, regardless of temperature. The symptoms of hyperhidrosis can significantly affect quality of life. The management of hyperhidrosis is uncertain and variable. OBJECTIVE: To establish the expected value of undertaking additional research to determine the most effective interventions for the management of refractory primary hyperhidrosis in secondary care. METHODS: A systematic review and economic model, including a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. Treatments to be prescribed by dermatologists and minor surgical treatments for hyperhidrosis of the hands, feet and axillae were reviewed; as endoscopic thoracic sympathectomy (ETS) is incontestably an end-of-line treatment, it was not reviewed further. Fifteen databases (e.g. CENTRAL, PubMed and PsycINFO), conference proceedings and trial registers were searched from inception to July 2016. Systematic review methods were followed. Pairwise meta-analyses were conducted for comparisons between botulinum toxin (BTX) injections and placebo for axillary hyperhidrosis, but otherwise, owing to evidence limitations, data were synthesised narratively. A decision-analytic model assessed the cost-effectiveness and VOI of five treatments (iontophoresis, medication, BTX, curettage, ETS) in 64 different sequences for axillary hyperhidrosis only. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Fifty studies were included in the effectiveness review: 32 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 17 non-RCTs and one large prospective case series. Most studies were small, rated as having a high risk of bias and poorly reported. The interventions assessed in the review were iontophoresis, BTX, anticholinergic medications, curettage and newer energy-based technologies that damage the sweat gland (e.g. laser, microwave). There is moderate-quality evidence of a large statistically significant effect of BTX on axillary hyperhidrosis symptoms, compared with placebo. There was weak but consistent evidence for iontophoresis for palmar hyperhidrosis. Evidence for other interventions was of low or very low quality. For axillary hyperhidrosis cost-effectiveness results indicated that iontophoresis, BTX, medication, curettage and ETS was the most cost-effective sequence (probability 0.8), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9304 per quality-adjusted life-year. Uncertainty associated with study bias was not reflected in the economic results. Patients and clinicians attending an end-of-project workshop were satisfied with the sequence of treatments for axillary hyperhidrosis identified as being cost-effective. All patient advisors considered that the Hyperhidrosis Quality of Life Index was superior to other tools commonly used in hyperhidrosis research for assessing quality of life. LIMITATIONS: The evidence for the clinical effectiveness and safety of second-line treatments for primary hyperhidrosis is limited. This meant that there was insufficient evidence to draw conclusions for most interventions assessed and the cost-effectiveness analysis was restricted to hyperhidrosis of the axilla. FUTURE WORK: Based on anecdotal evidence and inference from evidence for the axillae, participants agreed that a trial of BTX (with anaesthesia) compared with iontophoresis for palmar hyperhidrosis would be most useful. The VOI analysis indicates that further research into the effectiveness of existing medications might be worthwhile, but it is unclear that such trials are of clinical importance. Research that established a robust estimate of the annual incidence of axillary hyperhidrosis in the UK population would reduce the uncertainty in future VOI analyses. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015027803. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Type and Impact of Evidence Review Group Exploratory Analyses in the NICE Single Technology Appraisal Process.

BACKGROUND: As part of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal process, independent evidence review groups (ERGs) critically appraise a company's submission relating to a specific technology and indication. OBJECTIVES: To explore the type of additional exploratory analyses conducted by ERGs and their impact on the recommendations made by NICE. METHODS: The 100 most recently completed single technology appraisals with published guidance were selected for inclusion. A content analysis of relevant documents was undertaken to identify and extract relevant data, and narrative synthesis was used to rationalize and present these data. RESULTS: The types of exploratory analysis conducted in relation to companies' models were fixing errors, addressing violations, addressing matters of judgment, and the provision of a new, ERG-preferred base case. Ninety-three of the 100 ERG reports contained at least one of these analyses. The most frequently reported type of analysis in these 93 ERG reports related to the category "Matters of judgment," which was reported in 83 reports (89%). At least one of the exploratory analyses conducted and reported by an ERG is mentioned in 97% of NICE appraisal consultation documents and 94% of NICE final appraisal determinations, and had a clear influence on recommendations in 72% of appraisal consultation documents and 47% of final appraisal determinations. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the additional analyses undertaken by ERGs in the appraisal of company submissions are highly influential in the policy-making and decision-making process.

Cost-effectiveness of adjunct non-pharmacological interventions for osteoarthritis of the knee.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the costs and benefits of alternative adjunct non-pharmacological treatments for knee osteoarthritis and little guidance on which should be prioritised for commissioning within the NHS. This study estimates the costs and benefits of acupuncture, braces, heat treatment, insoles, interferential therapy, laser/light therapy, manual therapy, neuromuscular electrical stimulation, pulsed electrical stimulation, pulsed electromagnetic fields, static magnets and transcutaneous electrical nerve Stimulation (TENS), based on all relevant data, to facilitate a more complete assessment of value. METHODS: Data from 88 randomised controlled trials including 7,507 patients were obtained from a systematic review. The studies reported a wide range of outcomes. These were converted into EQ-5D index values using prediction models, and synthesised using network meta-analysis. Analyses were conducted including firstly all trials and secondly only trials with low risk of selection bias. Resource use was estimated from trials, expert opinion and the literature. A decision analytic model synthesised all evidence to assess interventions over a typical treatment period (constant benefit over eight weeks or linear increase in effect over weeks zero to eight and dissipation over weeks eight to 16). RESULTS: When all trials are considered, TENS is cost-effective at thresholds of £20-30,000 per QALY with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,690 per QALY vs. usual care. When trials with a low risk of selection bias are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £13,502 per QALY vs. TENS. The results of the analysis were sensitive to varying the intensity, with which interventions were delivered, and the magnitude and duration of intervention effects on EQ-5D. CONCLUSIONS: Using the £20,000 per QALY NICE threshold results in TENS being cost-effective if all trials are considered. If only higher quality trials are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective at this threshold, and thresholds down to £14,000 per QALY.