Crossover Trends in Current Cigarette Smoking Between Racial and Ethnic Groups of US Adolescents Aged 12-19 Years Old, 1999-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the racial difference and trends in cigarette smoking among adolescents from 1999 to 2018. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 10,760 adolescents aged 12-19 who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), 1999-2018. Current tobacco smoking (CTS) was defined as participants with serum cotinine ≥10 ng/mL. Adjusted biennial prevalence ratios (abiPR: the ratio associated with a two-year increase in time) were estimated. RESULTS: Diverging trends in CTS prevalence were revealed in adolescents. The steepest decrease occurred in Hispanics aged 12-17, with 15% declining every two calendar years [abiPR = 0.85(0.77, 0.94)]. The sharpest increase occurred with Blacks aged 18-19 years [abiPR = 1.06(0.99, 1.14)]. A crossover of prevalence trend between Blacks and Whites occurred in adolescents aged 18-19 years old due to the diverging trends. The average CTS prevalence was significantly higher in Whites than in Blacks in the early [(1999-2008, 13.65% (11.85%, 15.46%) vs. 8.80% (7.55%, 10.04%)], but Blacks had a higher average in recent years [(2009-2018, 8.32% (6.53%, 10.12%) vs. 7.77% (5.86%, 9.68%)]. For adolescents aged 18-19 years, the survey cycles or calendar years linearly explained 71% of the variations in the prevalence for Hispanics, 60% for Whites, but only 1% for Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: A crossover in the trend of current tobacco smoking occurred between 1999 and 2018 due to an increase in prevalence among Black adolescents and a significant decrease in prevalence among other racial groups.

The Use of Penalized Regression Analysis to Identify County-Level Demographic and Socioeconomic Variables Predictive of Increased COVID-19 Cumulative Case Rates in the State of Georgia.

Systemic inequity concerning the social determinants of health has been known to affect morbidity and mortality for decades. Significant attention has focused on the individual-level demographic and co-morbid factors associated with rates and mortality of COVID-19. However, less attention has been given to the county-level social determinants of health that are the main drivers of health inequities. To identify the degree to which social determinants of health predict COVID-19 cumulative case rates at the county-level in Georgia, we performed a sequential, cross-sectional ecologic analysis using a diverse set of socioeconomic and demographic variables. Lasso regression was used to identify variables from collinear groups. Twelve variables correlated to cumulative case rates (for cases reported by 1 August 2020) with an adjusted r squared of 0.4525. As time progressed in the pandemic, correlation of demographic and socioeconomic factors to cumulative case rates increased, as did number of variables selected. Findings indicate the social determinants of health and demographic factors continue to predict case rates of COVID-19 at the county-level as the pandemic evolves. This research contributes to the growing body of evidence that health disparities continue to widen, disproportionality affecting vulnerable populations.