Securing accelerated access to long-acting injectable cabotegravir for HIV prevention in low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Reductions in HIV acquisition have slowed, and the global community is significantly off track from global goals. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) alone cannot address the diverse needs of the millions of people at risk of HIV acquisition. Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) received United States Food and Drug Administration approval for HIV prevention in December 2021. When studied, CAB-LA demonstrated high effectiveness, provides months of protection versus daily use, is preferred by some users and has the potential to achieve commodity cost reduction. These factors position CAB-LA to catalyse transformation in HIV prevention. Significant work must be undertaken to ensure at-scale uptake in low- and middle-income countries. Leveraging decades of product introduction experience, Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) has developed an innovative roadmap to support equitable CAB-LA introduction, comprising tightly executed market-shaping, product development, regulatory, and programmatic and implementation action. DISCUSSION: Proven models exist (e.g. long-acting reversible contraceptives, paediatric tuberculosis treatment and antiretrovirals (ARVs), such as paediatric dolutegravir and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine, and dolutegravir) for partnership-driven, accelerated, impactful product introduction. Based on learnings from these models and needs in the prevention space, CHAI developed a roadmap to maximize the near-term impact of CAB-LA and accelerate the development of, access to and impact of quality-assured, low-cost generic CAB-LA. This roadmap is intended to inform introduction planning and investment decision-making across a range of stakeholders, including donors, governments, manufacturers and other partners working in the HIV prevention space. Elements include (1) ensuring coordination and alignment across partners, and avoiding redundancy experienced during oral PrEP introduction; (2) preparing national programmes and providing support to maximize impact, including the development of national policies, guidelines and introduction plans; system strengthening; quantification and procurement; and addressing evidence needs, among other areas; (3) supporting community engagement, ensuring that demand generation and delivery approaches are person-centred and community-led; (4) incentivizing generic product development through, for example, milestone-based commercialization incentives and product development cost-sharing; and (5) expediting regulatory reviews. CONCLUSIONS: Accelerating access to affordable, generic CAB-LA can transform progress towards HIV epidemic control. This vision of impact at scale in prevention is achievable, if informed by results-backed approaches to introduction.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Updated assessment of risks and benefits of dolutegravir versus efavirenz in new antiretroviral treatment initiators in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform treatment guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens. METHODS: We updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. FINDINGS: Considering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain. INTERPRETATION: In the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The transition to dolutegravir and other new antiretrovirals in low-income and middle-income countries: what are the issues?

: There are currently approximately 16 million people taking NNRTI-based first-line treatment in low-income and middle-income countries. Most of these patients are using the combination of tenofovir (TDF), lamivudine (3TC) and efavirenz (EFV). The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (DTG) has shown an improved safety profile compared with EFV in randomized studies. DTG also has a high barrier to development of drug resistance. New co-formulated tablets with TDF/3TC/DTG are being introduced into LMICs, for a median price of $75 per person-year. The prodrug of TDF, tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is cheaper to manufacture than TDF. A combined pill with TAF/3TC/DTG is also being launched in LMICs, at a similar low price. However, the clinical development programmes for DTG and TAF did not include extensive analysis of several key populations: pregnant women, people with HIV-tuberculosis (TB) coinfection taking rifampicin-based treatment, and treatment-naive or pretreated patients with NRTI drug resistance. An observational study in Botswana has shown an increased risk of neural tube defects when dolutegravir is used in early pregnancy. In LMICs, only 50% of patients have access to regular viral load testing, and genotypic resistance testing is rarely performed. There is currently no clinical data to support switching patients from TDF/3TC/EFV directly to TDF/3TC/DTG if their viral load is either detectable or unknown. New clinical trials and observational studies will be needed to better understand the consequences of this switch of treatment in LMICs. Clinical trials of new antiretrovirals in key populations should be conducted earlier in their development. This will ensure that new treatments can be introduced into LMICs soon after their launch in high-income countries.

A cost-savings analysis of a candidate universal antiretroviral regimen.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite significant strides in tackling HIV/AIDS in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), many treatment shortcomings remain, with limited drug selection to patients emerging as a critical challenge. The potential cost-savings benefits of adopting newer drugs as near-universal first-line antiretroviral (ARV) regimens that also provide improved clinical outcomes are discussed. RECENT FINDINGS: In the near term, a fixed-dose combination of dolutegravir (DTG or D) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and either lamivudine or emtricitabine (XTC), that is, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/XTC/DTG (TXD) (X = XTC), could represent a near-universal first-line antiretroviral regimen offering significant clinical benefit, commodity savings, and overall health system savings. In the longer term, tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) could further reduce the cost of the first-line treatment backbone, with possible clinical benefits. Relative to the current generic standard of care in first-line, currently priced at ∼USD 90 per patient per year (pppy), high-volume production of TXD could lead to price reductions of ∼USD 20 pppy, whereas high-volume production of tenofovir alafenamide fumarate/XTC/DTG (TAFXD) could offer a reduction of ∼USD 40 pppy. SUMMARY: With TXD in the near term, and TAFXD in the longer term, patients can benefit from better tolerated and more durable treatment, and programs will benefit by simplifying patient care and reducing cost to cover more patients.

Antiretroviral procurement and supply chain management.

Procurement, the country-level process of ordering antiretrovirals (ARVs), and supply chain management, the mechanism by which they are delivered to health-care facilities, are critical processes required to move ARVs from manufacturers to patients. To provide a glimpse into the ARV procurement and supply chain, the following pages provide an overview of the primary stakeholders, principal operating models, and policies and regulations involved in ARV procurement. Also presented are key challenges that need to be addressed to ensure that the supply chain is not a barrier to the goal of universal coverage. This article will cover the steps necessary to order and distribute ARVs, including different models of delivery, key stakeholders involved, strategic considerations that vary depending on context and policies affecting them. The single drug examples given illustrate the complications inherent in fragmented supply and demand-driven models of procurement and supply chain management, and suggest tools for navigating these hurdles that will ultimately result in more secure and reliable ARV provision. Understanding the dynamics of ARV supply chain is important for the global health community, both to ensure full and efficient treatment of persons living with HIV as well as to inform the supply chain decisions for other public health products.

An overview of the antiretroviral market.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: An understanding of the current state of the antiretroviral marketplace is an important context in which to consider drug optimization work. RECENT FINDINGS: The antiretroviral marketplace has undergone a remarkable evolution over the past 11 years, expanding from serving less than 300 000 patients in low and middle-income countries in 2002 to almost 10 million patients today. In addition to dramatic growth, a steady and rapid improvement in the drugs and drug regimens used to treat patients has characterized a rapidly changing market. SUMMARY: The antiretroviral marketplace has been characterized by rapid growth and a succession of improving drugs and regimens over the past 11 years. The dynamic and innovative marketplace provides a strong platform from which to introduce new, optimized drugs and regimens to better serve patients' health needs.

Optimising the manufacture, formulation, and dose of antiretroviral drugs for more cost-efficient delivery in resource-limited settings: a consensus statement.

It is expected that funding limitations for worldwide HIV treatment and prevention in resource-limited settings will continue, and, because the need for treatment scale-up is urgent, the emphasis on value for money has become an increasing priority. The Conference on Antiretroviral Drug Optimization--a collaborative project between the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation--brought together process chemists, clinical pharmacologists, pharmaceutical scientists, physicians, pharmacists, and regulatory specialists to explore strategies for the reduction of antiretroviral drug costs. The antiretroviral drugs discussed were prioritised for consideration on the basis of their market impact, and the objectives of the conference were framed as discussion questions generated to guide scientific assessment of potential strategies. These strategies included modifications to the synthesis of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and use of cheaper sources of raw materials in synthesis of these ingredients. Innovations in product formulation could improve bioavailability thus needing less API. For several antiretroviral drugs, studies show efficacy is maintained at doses below the approved dose (eg, efavirenz, lopinavir plus ritonavir, atazanavir, and darunavir). Optimising pharmacoenhancement and extending shelf life are additional strategies. The conference highlighted a range of interventions; optimum cost savings could be achieved through combining approaches.

Optimizing antiretroviral product selection: a sample approach to improving patient outcomes, saving money, and scaling-up health services in developing countries.

Over the last decade, increased funding to support HIV treatment programs has enabled millions of new patients in developing countries to access the medications they need. Today, although demand for antiretrovirals continues to grow, the financial crisis has severely constrained funding leaving countries with difficult choices on program prioritization. Product optimization is one solution countries can pursue to continue to improve patient care while also uncovering savings that can be used for further scale up or other health system needs. Program managers can make procurement decisions that actually reduce program costs by considering additional factors beyond World Health Organization guidelines when making procurement decisions. These include in-country product availability, convenience, price, and logistics such as supply chain implications and laboratory testing requirements. Three immediate product selection opportunities in the HIV space include using boosted atazanavir in place of lopinovir for second-line therapy, lamivudine instead of emtricitabine in both first-line and second-line therapy, and tenofovir + lamivudine over abacavir + didanosine in second-line therapy. If these 3 opportunities were broadly implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and India today, approximately $300 million of savings would be realized over the next 5 years, enabling hundreds of thousands of additional patients to be treated. Although the discussion herein is specific to antriretrovirals, the principles of product selection are generalizable to diseases with multiple treatment options and fungible commodity procurement. Identifying and implementing approaches to overcome health system inefficiencies will help sustain and may expand quality care in resource-limited settings.