A simulation study of extrapolation uncertainty in exposure assessment - Use of pilot study results for site investigation.

Accurate characterization of soil contaminant concentrations is often crucial for assessing risks to human and ecological health. However, fine-scale assessments of large tracts of land can be cost prohibitive due to the number of samples needed. One solution to this problem is to extrapolate sampling results from one area to another unsampled area. In the absence of a validated extrapolation methodology, regulatory agencies have employed policy-based techniques for large sites, but the likelihood of decision errors resulting from these extrapolations is largely unexplored. This study describes the results of a simulation study aimed at guiding environmental sampling for sites where extrapolation concepts are of interest. The objective of this study is to provide practical recommendations to regulatory agencies for extrapolating sampling results on large tracts of land while minimizing errors that are detrimental to human health. A variety of site investigation scenarios representative of environmental conditions and sampling schemes were tested using adaptive sampling when collecting discrete samples or applying incremental sampling methodology (ISM). These simulations address extrapolation uncertainty in cases where a Pilot Study might result in either false noncompliance or false compliance conclusions. A wide range of plausible scenarios were used that reflect the variety of heterogeneity seen at large sites. This simulation study demonstrates that ISM can be reliably applied in a Pilot Study for purposes of extrapolating the outcome to a large area site because it decreases the likelihood of false non-compliance errors while also providing reliable estimates of true compliance across unsampled areas. The results demonstrate how errors depend on the magnitude of the 95% upper confidence limit for the mean concentration (95UCL) relative to the applicable action level, and that error rates are highest when the 95UCL is within 10%-40% of the action level. The false compliance rate can be reduced to less than 5% when 30% or more of the site is characterized with ISM. False compliance error rates using ISM are insensitive to the fraction of the decision units (DUs) that are characterized with three replicates (with a minimum of 10 percent), so long as 95UCLs are calculated for the DUs with one replicate using the average coefficient of variation from the three replicate DUs.

Symptomatic benefits of testosterone treatment in patient subgroups: a systematic review, individual participant data meta-analysis, and aggregate data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Testosterone replacement therapy is known to improve sexual function in men younger than 40 years with pathological hypogonadism. However, the extent to which testosterone alleviates sexual dysfunction in older men and men with obesity is unclear, despite the fact that testosterone is being increasingly prescribed to these patient populations. We aimed to evaluate whether subgroups of men with low testosterone derive any symptomatic benefit from testosterone treatment. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate characteristics associated with symptomatic benefit of testosterone treatment versus placebo in men aged 18 years and older with a baseline serum total testosterone concentration of less than 12 nmol/L. We searched major electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and clinical trial registries for reports published in English between Jan 1, 1992, and Aug 27, 2018. Anonymised individual participant data were requested from the investigators of all identified trials. Primary (cardiovascular) outcomes from this analysis have been published previously. In this report, we present the secondary outcomes of sexual function, quality of life, and psychological outcomes at 12 months. We did a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis with a random-effects linear regression model, and a two-stage meta-analysis integrating individual participant data with aggregated data from studies that did not provide individual participant data. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018111005. FINDINGS: 9871 citations were identified through database searches. After exclusion of duplicates and publications not meeting inclusion criteria, 225 full texts were assessed for inclusion, of which 109 publications reporting 35 primary studies (with a total 5601 participants) were included. Of these, 17 trials provided individual participant data (3431 participants; median age 67 years [IQR 60-72]; 3281 [97%] of 3380 aged ≥40 years) Compared with placebo, testosterone treatment increased 15-item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-15) total score (mean difference 5·52 [95% CI 3·95-7·10]; τ2=1·17; n=1412) and IIEF-15 erectile function subscore (2·14 [1·40-2·89]; τ2=0·64; n=1436), reaching the minimal clinically important difference for mild erectile dysfunction. These effects were not found to be dependent on participant age, obesity, presence of diabetes, or baseline serum total testosterone. However, absolute IIEF-15 scores reached during testosterone treatment were subject to thresholds in patient age and baseline serum total testosterone. Testosterone significantly improved Aging Males' Symptoms score, and some 12-item or 36-item Short Form Survey quality of life subscores compared with placebo, but it did not significantly improve psychological symptoms (measured by Beck Depression Inventory). INTERPRETATION: In men aged 40 years or older with baseline serum testosterone of less than 12 nmol/L, short-to-medium-term testosterone treatment could provide clinically meaningful treatment for mild erectile dysfunction, irrespective of patient age, obesity, or degree of low testosterone. However, due to more severe baseline symptoms, the absolute level of sexual function reached during testosterone treatment might be lower in older men and men with obesity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

v-SYMPHONY career development series: A collaboration to enhance professional awareness for pediatric hematology oncology trainees.

BACKGROUND: A recent survey of pediatric hematology oncology (PHO) physicians identified that a majority believe fellows are struggling to find jobs that align with their goals. Career development for trainees has historically been home institution-specific, limiting fellows' exposures to career path possibilities. The "virtual-Symposium of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology of New York (v-SYMPHONY)" instituted a tristate Career Development Series for PHO trainees to better address their needs and increase awareness of the variety of PHO career opportunities. PROCEDURE: The v-SYMPHONY Career Development Series incorporated three sessions: (a) institutional perspective, (b) individual perspectives, and (c) nuts and bolts of job search. Pre- and post-series surveys were administered to participants to measure impact. RESULTS: Forty-one fellows registered for the series and completed a pre-survey. Over half (54%) were in their third or later year of fellowship. Careers with a clinical focus were the most commonly desired career path (59%). Most had received career development advice only from faculty within their institutions (90%). Post-surveys were completed by 11 PHO fellows. Overall, 100% of respondents reported benefiting from the career sessions and recommended the series should be repeated annually. Over 90% learned new information to prepare for the job search. CONCLUSIONS: The v-SYMPHONY Career Development Series for PHO fellows across multiple institutions was established and was extremely well received by its participants. PHO fellows agreed that these sessions were beneficial in helping prepare them for the job search process. An annual regional Career Development Series is feasible and is strongly suggested to support PHO fellows.

Adverse cardiovascular events and mortality in men during testosterone treatment: an individual patient and aggregate data meta-analysis.

Background: Testosterone is the standard treatment for male hypogonadism, but there is uncertainty about its cardiovascular safety due to inconsistent findings. We aimed to provide the most extensive individual participant dataset (IPD) of testosterone trials available, to analyse subtypes of all cardiovascular events observed during treatment, and to investigate the effect of incorporating data from trials that did not provide IPD. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials including IPD. We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print, Embase, Science Citation Index, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Database of Abstracts of Review of Effects for literature from 1992 onwards (date of search, Aug 27, 2018). The following inclusion criteria were applied: (1) men aged 18 years and older with a screening testosterone concentration of 12 nmol/L (350 ng/dL) or less; (2) the intervention of interest was treatment with any testosterone formulation, dose frequency, and route of administration, for a minimum duration of 3 months; (3) a comparator of placebo treatment; and (4) studies assessing the pre-specified primary or secondary outcomes of interest. Details of study design, interventions, participants, and outcome measures were extracted from published articles and anonymised IPD was requested from investigators of all identified trials. Primary outcomes were mortality, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular events at any time during follow-up. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We did a one-stage meta-analysis using IPD, and a two-stage meta-analysis integrating IPD with data from studies not providing IPD. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018111005. Findings: 9871 citations were identified through database searches and after exclusion of duplicates and of irrelevant citations, 225 study reports were retrieved for full-text screening. 116 studies were subsequently excluded for not meeting the inclusion criteria in terms of study design and characteristics of intervention, and 35 primary studies (5601 participants, mean age 65 years, [SD 11]) reported in 109 peer-reviewed publications were deemed suitable for inclusion. Of these, 17 studies (49%) provided IPD (3431 participants, mean duration 9·5 months) from nine different countries while 18 did not provide IPD data. Risk of bias was judged to be low in most IPD studies (71%). Fewer deaths occurred with testosterone treatment (six [0·4%] of 1621) than placebo (12 [0·8%] of 1537) without significant differences between groups (odds ratio [OR] 0·46 [95% CI 0·17-1·24]; p=0·13). Cardiovascular risk was similar during testosterone treatment (120 [7·5%] of 1601 events) and placebo treatment (110 [7·2%] of 1519 events; OR 1·07 [95% CI 0·81-1·42]; p=0·62). Frequently occurring cardiovascular events included arrhythmia (52 of 166 vs 47 of 176), coronary heart disease (33 of 166 vs 33 of 176), heart failure (22 of 166 vs 28 of 176), and myocardial infarction (10 of 166 vs 16 of 176). Overall, patient age (interaction 0·97 [99% CI 0·92-1·03]; p=0·17), baseline testosterone (interaction 0·97 [0·82-1·15]; p=0·69), smoking status (interaction 1·68 [0·41-6·88]; p=0.35), or diabetes status (interaction 2·08 [0·89-4·82; p=0·025) were not associated with cardiovascular risk. Interpretation: We found no evidence that testosterone increased short-term to medium-term cardiovascular risks in men with hypogonadism, but there is a paucity of data evaluating its long-term safety. Long-term data are needed to fully evaluate the safety of testosterone. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Prospective validation of a virtual clinic pathway in the management of choroidal naevi: the NAEVUS study Report no. 1: safety assessment.

BACKGROUND: Choroidal naevi are a common incidental finding prompting specialist referrals to ocular oncology. Rarely, such lesions have sufficient suspicious features to diagnose a small melanoma. The aim of the study is to show that 'virtual' imaging-based pathways are a safe and efficient option to manage such referrals. METHODS: A prospective cohort study at the Manchester Royal Eye Hospital and Moorfields Eye Hospital between June 2016 and July 2017 of the management decision of 400 patients reviewed by an ophthalmologist in a face-to-face consultation (gold standard) supported by fundus photography, optical coherence tomography, autofluorescence (AF) and B-mode ultrasound. The images were also read independently by blinded graders (non-medical) and blinded ophthalmologists, and a management decision was made based on image review alone (virtual pathway). The two pathways were compared for safety. RESULTS: The agreement for management decisions between face-to-face and virtual pathways was 83.1% (non-medical) and 82.6% (medical). There were more over-referrals in the virtual pathway (non-medical 24.3%, medical 23.3% of gold standard discharge) and only two under-referrals (10.5% of gold standard referrals), both borderline cases with minimal clinical risk. The agreement for risk factors of growth (orange pigment, subretinal fluid, hyper-AF) ranged between 82.3% and 97.3%. CONCLUSIONS: We prospectively validated a virtual clinic model for the safe management of choroidal naevi. Such a model of care is feasible with low rate of under-referral. An over-referral rate of almost 24% from the vitrual pathway needs to be factored into designing such pathways in conjunction with evidence on their cost-effectiveness.

Stillbirth rates, service outcomes and costs of implementing NHS England's Saving Babies' Lives care bundle in maternity units in England: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess implementation of the Saving Babies Lives (SBL) Care Bundle, a collection of practice recommendations in four key areas, to reduce stillbirth in England. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 463,630 births in 19 NHS Trusts in England using routinely collected electronic data supplemented with case note audit (n = 1,658), and surveys of service users (n = 2,085) and health care professionals (n = 1,064). The primary outcome was stillbirth rate. Outcome rates two years before and after the nominal SBL implementation date were derived as a measure of change over the implementation period. Data were collected on secondary outcomes and process outcomes which reflected implementation of the SBL care bundle. RESULTS: The total stillbirth rate, declined from 4.2 to 3.4 per 1,000 births between the two time points (adjusted Relative Risk (aRR) 0.80, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 0.70 to 0.91, P<0.001). There was a contemporaneous increase in induction of labour (aRR 1.20 (95%CI 1.18-1.21), p<0.001) and emergency Caesarean section (aRR 1.10 (95%CI 1.07-1.12), p<0.001). The number of ultrasound scans performed (aRR 1.25 (95%CI 1.21-1.28), p<0.001) and the proportion of small for gestational age infants detected (aRR 1.59 (95%CI 1.32-1.92), p<0.001) also increased. Organisations reporting higher levels of implementation had improvements in process measures in all elements of the care bundle. An economic analysis estimated the cost of implementing the care bundle at ~£140 per birth. However, neither the costs nor changes in outcomes could be definitively attributed to implementation of the SBL care bundle. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the SBL care bundle increased over time in the majority of sites. Implementation was associated with improvements in process outcomes. The reduction in stillbirth rates in participating sites exceeded that reported nationally in the same timeframe. The intervention should be refined to identify women who are most likely to benefit and minimise unwarranted intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on (NCT03231007); www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Dose-response assessment for impaired memory from chronic exposure to domoic acid among native American consumers of razor clams.

Domoic acid (DA) is a marine neurotoxin that accumulates in filtering shellfish during harmful algal blooms. A health protection limit of 20 ppm DA in razor clams (RC) has been set based principally upon an episode of acute DA toxicity in humans that included Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning among survivors. The objective of this study was to determine the dose-response relationship between estimated DA exposure through RC consumption and memory loss in Washington state Native Americans from 2005 to 2015. Results from total learning recall (TLR) memory scores were compared before and after the highest DA exposures. A decrease in TLR was related to DA dose (p < 0.01) regardless whether the effect was assumed to be transient or lasting, and whether the dose was expressed as an average daily dose or an average dose per meal. Benchmark dose modeling identified BMDL10 values of 167 ng/kg-day and 2740 ng/kg-meal assuming a transient effect, and 196 ng/kg-day and 2980 ng/kg-meal assuming no recovery of function occurs. These DA dose thresholds for a measurable memory function reduction observed in this study of clam consumers are well below the safe acute dose underpinning the current regulatory DA limit of 20 ppm (ca. 60 µg/kg).

Assessment of the quality, content and perceived utility of local maternity guidelines in hospitals in England implementing the saving babies' lives care bundle to reduce stillbirth.

INTRODUCTION: The UK Department of Health have targeted a reduction in stillbirth by 50% by 2025; to achieve this, the first version of the Saving Babies' Lives Care Bundle (SBLCB) was developed by NHS England in 2016 to improve four key areas of antenatal and intrapartum care. Clinical practice guidelines are a key means by which quality improvement initiatives are disseminated to front-line staff. METHODS: Seventy-five clinical practice guidelines covering the four areas of antenatal and intrapartum care in the first version of SBLCB were obtained from 19 maternity providers. The content and quality of guidelines were evaluated using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) tool. Maternity health professionals in participating organisations were invited to participate in an anonymous survey to determine perceptions toward and experiences of the use of clinical practice guidelines using a series of Likert scales. RESULTS: Unit guidelines showed considerable variation in quality with median scores of 50%-58%. Only 4 (5.6%) guidelines were recommended for use in clinical practice without modifications, 54 (75.0%) were recommended for use subject to modifications and 12 (16.7%) were not recommended for use. The lowest scoring domains were 'rigour of development', 'stakeholder involvement' and 'applicability'. A significant minority of unit guidelines omitted recommendations from national guidelines. The majority of staff believed that clinical practice guidelines standardised and improved the quality of care but over 30% had insufficient time to use them and 24% stated they were unable to implement recommendations. CONCLUSION: To successfully implement initiatives such as the SBLCB change is needed to local clinical practice guidelines to reduce variation in quality and to ensure they are consistent with national recommendations . In addition, to improve clinical practice, adequate time and resources need to be in place to deliver and evaluate care recommended in the SBLCB.

Probabilistic risk assessment for high-end consumers of seafood on the northeastern Gulf coast.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (April 20, 2010) caused concern regarding Gulf seafood safety. Communities were skeptical of governmental risk assessments because they did not take into account the higher consumption of seafood along coastal areas. The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk assessment based on the consumption rates of high-end consumers of Gulf seafood. We utilized seafood consumption data from five communities across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This study collected finfish, shrimp, blue crab, and oysters from these communities and analyzed their tissues for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A probabilistic risk assessment was performed using population-specific seafood consumption rates and body weights for commercial fishers, recreational fishers, and a Filipino-American community. For non-cancer effects, 95th percentile hazard quotients for these targeted populations ranged between 1.84E-04 to 5.39E-03 for individual seafood types. The 95th percentile hazard indices for total seafood consumption ranged from 3.45E-03 to 8.41E-03. Based on total seafood consumption, highest hazard indices were modeled for the Filipino-American community followed by commercial and recreational fishers. Despite higher consumption rates, hazard indices for the high-end consumers targeted in this study were two to three orders of magnitude below the regulatory limit of 1.

Unacceptable failures: the final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity-the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.

Provision of information about newborn screening antenatally: a sequential exploratory mixed-methods project.

BACKGROUND: Participation in the UK Newborn Bloodspot Screening Programme (NBSP) requires parental consent but concerns exist about whether or not this happens in practice and the best methods and timing to obtain consent at reasonable cost. OBJECTIVES: To collate all possible modes of prescreening communication and consent for newborn (neonatal) screening (NBS); examine midwives', screening professionals' and users' views about the feasibility, efficiency and impact on understanding of each; measure midwives' and parents' preferences for information provision; and identify key drivers of cost-effectiveness for alternative modes of information provision. DESIGN: Six study designs were used: (1) realist review - to generate alternative communication and consent models; (2) qualitative interviews with parents and health professionals - to examine the implications of current practice for understanding and views on alternative models; (3) survey and observation of midwives - to establish current costs; (4) stated preference surveys with midwives, parents and potential future parents - to establish preferences for information provision; (5) economic analysis - to identify cost-effectiveness drivers of alternative models; and (6) stakeholder validation focus groups and interviews - to examine the acceptability, views and broader impact of alternative communication and consent models. SETTING: Providers and users of NBS in England. PARTICIPANTS: Study 2: 45 parents and 37 health professionals; study 3: 22 midwives and eight observations; study 4: 705 adults aged 18-45 years and 134 midwives; and study 6: 12 health-care professionals and five parents. RESULTS: The realist review identified low parental knowledge and evidence of coercive consent practices. Interview, focus group and stated preference data suggested a preference for full information, with some valuing this more than choice. Health professionals preferred informed choice models but parents and health professionals queried whether or not current consent was fully informed. Barriers to using leaflets effectively were highlighted. All studies indicated that a 'personalised' approach to NBS communication, allowing parents to select the mode and level of information suited to their learning needs, could have added value. A personalised approach should rely on midwife communication and should occur in the third trimester. Overall awareness was identified as requiring improvement. Starting NBS communication by alerting parents that they have a choice to make and telling them that samples could be stored are both likely to enhance engagement. The methods of information provision and maternal anxiety causing additional visits to health-care professionals were the drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. Lack of data to populate an economic analysis, confirmed by value of information analysis, indicated a need for further research. LIMITATIONS: There are some limitations with regard to the range of participants used in studies 2 and 3 and so caution should be exercised when interpreting some of the results. CONCLUSIONS: This project highlighted the importance of focusing on information receipt and identified key communication barriers. Health professionals strongly preferred informed consent, which parents endorsed if they were made aware of sample storage. Uniform models of information provision were perceived as ineffective. A choice of information provision was supported by health professionals and parents, which both enhances cost-effectiveness and improves engagement, understanding and the validity of consent. Remaining uncertainties suggest that more research is needed before new communication modes are introduced into practice. Future research should measure the impact of the suggested practice changes (informing in third trimester, information toolkits, changed role of midwife). TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN70227207. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 55. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The impact of social deprivation on mortality following acute myocardial infarction, stroke or subarachnoid haemorrhage: a record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of social deprivation on mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is unclear. Our objectives were, firstly, to determine, for each condition, whether there was higher mortality following admission according to social deprivation and secondly, to determine how any higher mortality for deprived groups may be correlated with factors including patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital size. METHODS: Routinely collected, linked hospital inpatient, mortality and primary care data were analysed for patients admitted as an emergency to hospitals in Wales between 2004 and 2011 with AMI (n = 30,663), stroke (37,888) and SAH (1753). Logistic regression with Bonferroni correction was used to examine, firstly, any significant increases in mortality with social deprivation quintile and, secondly, the influence of patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital characteristics on any higher mortality among the most socially deprived groups. RESULTS: Mortality was 14.3 % at 30 days for AMI, 21.4 % for stroke and 35.6 % for SAH. Social deprivation was significantly associated with higher mortality for AMI (25 %; 95 % CI = 12 %, 40 %) higher for quintile V compared with I), stroke (24 %; 14 %, 34 %), and non-significantly for SAH (32 %; -7 %, 87 %). The higher mortality at 30 days with increased social deprivation varied significantly according to patient age for AMI patients and time period for SAH. It was also highest for both AMI and stroke patients, although not significantly for female patients, for admissions on weekdays and during autumn months. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated a positive association between social deprivation and higher mortality following emergency admissions for both AMI and stroke. The study findings also suggest that the influence of patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital size on social inequalities in mortality are quite similar for AMI and stroke.

Routine versus As-Needed Bevacizumab with 12-Weekly Assessment Intervals for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration: 92-Week Results of the GMAN Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of intravitreal bevacizumab (Avastin; Genentech, South San Francisco, CA) in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) using 2 different treatment regimens in which patients were assessed clinically at up to 12-week intervals. DESIGN: Randomized, controlled, noninferiority trial. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 331 patients with nAMD. METHODS: Patients were treated with 1.25 mg intravitreal bevacizumab and followed up to 92 weeks. They were randomized into 2 arms. All patients received 3 loading doses 4 weeks apart and thereafter were assessed every 12 weeks until the end of the study. One arm received a routine treatment at each 12-week assessment, and the other arm was treated at these assessments on an as-needed basis. After the loading doses, patients in either arm who showed signs of disease activity had an additional assessment after 6 weeks and at that visit had top-up treatments on an as-needed basis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 92 weeks. RESULTS: At 92 weeks, patients who had treatments every 12 weeks had superior BCVA to those treated on an as-needed basis every 12 weeks (P = 0.008), with the regular treatment arm gaining a mean BCVA of 5.5 letters and the as-needed treatment arm gaining 0.6 letters. The regular treatment arm of the study showed significantly improved outcomes with respect to 5-, 10-, and 15-letter changes in BCVA from baseline compared with the as-needed treatment arm, as well as superior reading speed. In patients who completed the study, up to but not including week 92, the mean number of treatments was 10.8 for the regular treatment arm and 9.1 for the as-needed treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: A treatment regimen with regular bevacizumab injections every 12 weeks after loading doses supplemented with as-needed top-up treatments produced a stable improvement in BCVA from baseline. The improvement in BCVA was broadly similar to that obtained in other studies using anti-vascular endothelial growth factor drugs with more frequent assessments and treatments.

Randomised controlled trial. Comparison Of iNfliximab and ciclosporin in STeroid Resistant Ulcerative Colitis: Trial design and protocol (CONSTRUCT).

INTRODUCTION: Many patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) present with acute exacerbations needing hospital admission. Treatment includes intravenous steroids but up to 40% of patients do not respond and require emergency colectomy. Mortality following emergency colectomy has fallen, but 10% of patients still die within 3 months of surgery. Infliximab and ciclosporin, both immunosuppressive drugs, offer hope for treating steroid-resistant UC as there is evidence of their short-term effectiveness. As there is little long-term evidence, this pragmatic randomised trial, known as Comparison Of iNfliximab and ciclosporin in STeroid Resistant Ulcerative Colitis: a Trial (CONSTRUCT), aims to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of infliximab and ciclosporin for steroid-resistant UC. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Between May 2010 and February 2013, 52 UK centres recruited 270 patients admitted with acute severe UC who failed to respond to intravenous steroids but did not need surgery. We allocated them at random in equal proportions between infliximab and ciclosporin.The primary clinical outcome measure is quality-adjusted survival, that is survival weighted by Crohn's and Colitis Questionnaire (CCQ) participants' scores, analysed by Cox regression. Secondary outcome measures include: the CCQ-an extension of the validated but community-focused UK Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ) to include patients with acute severe colitis and stoma; two general quality of life measures-EQ-5D and SF-12; mortality; survival weighted by EQ-5D; emergency and planned colectomies; readmissions; incidence of adverse events including malignancies, serious infections and renal disorders; disease activity; National Health Service (NHS) costs and patient-borne costs. Interviews investigate participants' views on therapies for acute severe UC and healthcare professionals' views on the two drugs and their administration. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Research Ethics Committee for Wales has given ethical approval (Ref. 08/MRE09/42); each participating Trust or Health Board has given NHS Reseach & Development approval. We plan to present trial findings at international and national conferences and publish in high-impact peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN: 22663589; EudraCT number: 2008-001968-36.

Sociodemographic factors predicting mother's cervical screening and daughter's HPV vaccination uptake.

BACKGROUND: Achieving high human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage may reduce inequalities in cervical cancer prevention by mitigating the inequalities seen in the cervical screening programme. This paper assesses whether the same sociodemographic factors are associated with both cervical screening and HPV vaccination. METHODS: Girls' HPV vaccination records were linked by address to cervical screening records for their mothers in the North West of England. Index of Multiple Deprivation scores (2010) and census ethnicity data (2001) were used to investigate the association between deprivation and ethnic composition of area of residence with HPV vaccination and cervical screening uptake, along with potential differences between Primary Care Trusts (PCTs), which were responsible for vaccine delivery. RESULTS: Deprivation was not associated with routine (12-13-year-olds) vaccination initiation, but girls living in the most deprived quintile were significantly less likely to complete the three vaccine doses (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.88). Mother-daughter pairs failing to engage in either screening or vaccination were also more likely to live in deprived areas (routine vaccination OR for most deprived quintile: 2.35; 95% CI 2.00 to 2.77). There were differences between PCTs after controlling for demographic effects (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.52). CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring completion of the vaccine schedule is critical for organisations responsible for vaccine delivery in order to reduce cancer risk among girls living in deprived areas. There remains a small minority of mothers and daughters from disadvantaged backgrounds who do not participate in either cervical screening or HPV vaccination.

The cost-effectiveness of a pharmacogenetic test: a trial-based evaluation of TPMT genotyping for azathioprine.

BACKGROUND: Thiopurine-methyl transferase (TPMT) testing prior to the prescription of azathioprine in autoimmune diseases is one of the few examples of a pharmacogenetic test that has made the transition from research into clinical practice. TPMT testing could lead to improved prescribing of azathioprine resulting in a reduction in adverse drug reactions as well as an improvement in effectiveness. When allocating scarce resources robust evidence on cost-effectiveness is required. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a TPMT genotyping test to inform azathioprine prescribing in autoimmune diseases. The secondary aim of this study was to demonstrate the complexity of undertaking a trial-based evaluation of a pharmacogenetic test. METHODS: A prospective economic evaluation was conducted alongside the TARGET (TPMT: Azathioprine Response to Genotype and Enzyme Testing) study, a pragmatic controlled trial that randomized (1:1) patients to undergo TPMT genotyping before azathioprine (n = 167) or current practice (n = 166). Assuming the UK health service perspective and a time horizon of 4 months, resource-use and health status data were collected prospectively for all recruited patients. RESULTS: The mean incremental cost for TPMT genotyping and subsequent care pathways compared with current practice for the 4-month follow-up was -£421.06 (95% confidence interval -£925.15 to £89.75). Mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years were close to zero but negative: -0.008 (95% confidence interval -0.017 to 0.0002). Assuming a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the expected incremental net benefit of introducing the test is £256.89 (95% CI -£425.94 to £932.86). CONCLUSIONS: TPMT genotyping potentially offers a less expensive alternative than current practice, but it may also have a small but negative effect on health status. These findings are associated with significant uncertainty, and the causal effect of TPMT genotyping on changes in health status and health care resource use remains uncertain. The results from this study therefore pose a difficult challenge to decision makers.

Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the problem of separating statistical noise from treatment effects in health outcomes modeling and analysis. To demonstrate the implementation of one technique, common random numbers (CRNs), and to illustrate the value of CRNs to assess costs and outcomes under uncertainty. METHODS: A microsimulation model was designed to evaluate osteoporosis treatment, estimating cost and utility measures for patient cohorts at high risk of osteoporosis-related fractures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated using a full implementation of CRNs, a partial implementation of CRNs, and no CRNs. A modification to traditional probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was used to determine how variance reduction can impact a decision maker's view of treatment efficacy and costs. RESULTS: The full use of CRNs provided a 93.6 percent reduction in variance compared to simulations not using the technique. The use of partial CRNs provided a 5.6 percent reduction. The PSA results using full CRNs demonstrated a substantially tighter range of cost-benefit outcomes for teriparatide usage than the cost-benefits generated without the technique. CONCLUSIONS: CRNs provide substantial variance reduction for cost-effectiveness studies. By reducing variability not associated with the treatment being evaluated, CRNs provide a better understanding of treatment effects and risks.

The delivery of a health promotion intervention by a public health promotion specialist improves patient satisfaction in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to introduce a public health promotion specialist (PHPS) into the hospital emergency department (ED) to provide a brief health promotion intervention to patients and to determine the effect of the initiative on patient satisfaction. METHODS: Patients in the intervention group were offered and received a 5- to 10-minute presentation about exercise, heart health, healthy eating on a budget, or weight control by a trained PHPS. Patients in the control group received usual ED care. Both groups completed the patient satisfaction instrument. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to compare the two groups on patient satisfaction questions and to identify predictors of the likelihood of patients referring others to the ED. RESULTS: Subjects in the intervention group were more likely to rate the services as great in areas of patient satisfaction such as provider listening, staff being friendly and helpful, comfort and safety, and privacy. Those in the intervention group were three times more likely than those in the control group to state that they would refer others to the ED. CONCLUSIONS: Health promotion and disease prevention interventions carried out by PHPS in the ED can improve patient satisfaction.

Payment contracts in a preventive health care system: a perspective from operations management.

We consider a health care system consisting of two noncooperative parties: a health purchaser (payer) and a health provider, where the interaction between the two parties is governed by a payment contract. We determine the contracts that coordinate the health purchaser-health provider relationship; i.e. the contracts that maximize the population's welfare while allowing each entity to optimize its own objective function. We show that under certain conditions (1) when the number of customers for a preventive medical intervention is verifiable, there exists a gate-keeping contract and a set of concave piecewise linear contracts that coordinate the system, and (2) when the number of customers is not verifiable, there exists a contract of bounded linear form and a set of incentive-feasible concave piecewise linear contracts that coordinate the system.