Time­dependent ROC curve analysis to determine the predictive capacity of seven clinical scales for mortality in patients with COVID­19: Study of a hospital cohort with very high mortality.

Clinical data from hospital admissions are typically utilized to determine the prognostic capacity of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indices. However, as disease status and severity markers evolve over time, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis becomes more appropriate. The present analysis assessed predictive power for death at various time points throughout patient hospitalization. In a cohort study involving 515 hospitalized patients (General Hospital Number 1 of Mexican Social Security Institute, Colima, Mexico from February 2021 to December 2022) with COVID-19, seven severity indices [Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) PaO2/FiO2 arterial oxygen pressure/fraction of inspired oxygen (Kirby index), the Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2), the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA), the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and the Viral Pneumonia Mortality Score (MuLBSTA were evaluated using time-dependent ROC curves. Clinical data were collected at admission and at 2, 4, 6 and 8 days into hospitalization. The study calculated the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for each index at these time points. Mortality was 43.9%. Throughout all time points, NEWS-2 demonstrated the highest predictive power for mortality, as indicated by its AUC values. PSI and COVID-GRAM followed, with predictive power increasing as hospitalization duration progressed. Additionally, NEWS-2 exhibited the highest sensitivity (>96% in all periods) but showed low specificity, which increased from 22.9% at admission to 58.1% by day 8. PSI displayed good predictive capacity from admission to day 6 and excellent predictive power at day 8 and its sensitivity remained >80% throughout all periods, with moderate specificity (70.6-77.3%). COVID-GRAM demonstrated good predictive capacity across all periods, with high sensitivity (84.2-87.3%) but low-to-moderate specificity (61.5-67.6%). The qSOFA index initially had poor predictive power upon admission but improved after 4 days. FIB-4 had a statistically significant predictive capacity in all periods (P=0.001), but with limited clinical value (AUC, 0.639-0.698), and with low sensitivity and specificity. MuLBSTA and IKIRBY exhibited low predictive power at admission and no power after 6 days. In conclusion, in COVID-19 patients with high mortality rates, NEWS-2 and PSI consistently exhibited predictive power for death during hospital stay, with PSI demonstrating the best balance between sensitivity and specificity.

Fitness Cost of Sequential Selection with Deltamethrin in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

In Mexico, Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary dengue vector, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. The continued use of synthetic pyrethroids has led to the development of resistance in target populations, which has diminished the effectiveness of vector control programs. Resistance has been associated with disadvantages that affect the biological parameters of resistant mosquitoes compared to susceptible ones. In the present study, the disadvantages were evaluated by parameters related to survival and reproduction ('fitness cost') after selection with deltamethrin for five generations. The parameters analyzed were the length of the development cycle, sex ratio, survival, longevity, fecundity, egg viability, preoviposition, oviposition and postoviposition periods, and growth parameters. In the deltamethrin-selected strain, there was a decrease in the development cycle duration, the percentage of pupae, the oviposition period, and eggs viability. Although mean daily fecundity was not affected after the selection process, this, together with the decrease in the survival and fecundity levels by specific age, significantly affected the gross reproductive rate (GRR), net reproductive rate (Ro), and intrinsic growth rate (rm) of the group selected for five generations with deltamethrin compared to the group without selection. Identifying the 'cost' of resistance in biological fitness represents an advantage if it is desired to limit the spread of resistant populations since the fitness cost is the less likely that resistant individuals will spread in the population. This represents an important factor to consider in designing integrated vector management programs.

Health and economic measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic- Effect on street vendors.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 pandemic affects human health and the global economy. Its evolution is unpredictable, making it hard for governments to provide response actions suited for all populations. Meanwhile, informal street workers carry on with their labor despite contingency measures to sustain their lives. The objective was to conduct a case-control study to become aware of how street vendors' economy is affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODOLOGY: During phase 2 of the COVID-19 pandemic in a Mexican suburban city. We interviewed informal street vendors (cases) and formal employees (controls). RESULTS: Before mobility restrictions were in place, population income came 1.5% from formal employment and 23.5% from informal employment (street vendors). Informal employees lived on less than the equivalent of 1.5 Big Macs per day (p <0.001). After the contingency measures, formal employment kept the same, while the informal employment ratio increased to 57.4% (p < 0.001). The street vendors were almost 100-times less likely to be concerned about the coronavirus outbreak (p < 0.001) and were 38-times less likely to stop working compared with the formal workers (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We have proven that street vendors are a sector of the population that is highly vulnerable to significant economic loss due to contingency measures. Informal workers cannot stop working despite the "Stay at Home" initiative because the government has not implemented strategies that guarantee their survival and their families. Therefore, street vendors continue to be a source of the virus's spread throughout cities.

A PCR-RFLP method for typing human papillomavirus type 16 variants.

Infection with some types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is required for cervical cancer development, being HPV type 16 (HPV 16) the most common type in premalignant and malignant cervical lesions. DNA sequencing has revealed the existence of intratypic variants of HPV 16 whose genotyping is clinically useful for distinguishing between persistent and recurrent infections. From the epidemiological perspective, the frequency of diverse HPV 16 variants in several populations could correlate with the presence of precursor high-risk lesions in different anatomical locations. Currently, the "gold standard" method for identifying HPV 16 variants involves the sequencing of genomic regions to identify characteristic polymorphic sites. Although some other methods have been described, they require specialized or high-cost equipment. In this study, a robust and low cost procedure is described for HPV 16 variant typing, based on the long control region of the virus.