A simulation modelling approach to evaluating alternative policies for the management of the waiting list for liver transplantation.

A shortage of donor liver grafts unfortunately results in approximately 10% of patients dying whilst listed for a liver transplant in Europe and the United States. Thus it is imperative that all available organs are used as efficiently as possible. This paper reports upon the application of a simulation modelling approach to assess the impact of several alternative allocation policies upon the cost effectiveness of this technology at one liver transplant centre in the UK. The impact of changes in allocation criteria on the estimated net life expectancy, average net costs and overall cost effectiveness of the transplantation programme were evaluated. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the base case allocation policy, based upon the time spent on the waiting list (i.e., longest wait first) was 11,557 pounds sterling at 1999 prices. The ICERs associated with an allocation policy based upon age (lowest age first), and an allocation policy based upon the severity of the pre-transplant condition of the patient (with most severely ill patients given a lower priority) were lower than the base case at 10,424 pounds sterling and 9,077 pounds sterling, respectively. The results of this modelling study suggest that the overall cost effectiveness of the liver transplantation programme could be improved if the current allocation policy were modified to give more weight to the age of the patient and the reduced chances of success of the most severely ill patients.

Psychiatric and social outcome following liver transplantation for alcoholic liver disease: a controlled study.

Psychiatric outcome, quality of life, and alcohol consumption were compared between patients transplanted for alcoholic liver disease and those transplanted for other chronic liver diseases. Instruments used included the Clinical Interview Schedule, the 28-item General Health Questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the Nottingham Health Profile. There was no difference between the two groups with regard to median scores or "caseness" on these instruments, except for physical mobility on the Nottingham Health Profile, where the alcoholic group was more likely to experience difficulties (p = 0.03). The majority of those transplanted for alcoholic liver disease remained abstinent, although 7 of the 31 in the alcoholic group (23%) were drinking above recommended safe limits. Psychosocial outcome is similar for individuals transplanted for alcoholic liver disease and those transplanted for other chronic liver diseases. Patients should not be excluded from transplantation on grounds of their drinking history.

Incidence, risk factors, management, and outcome of portal vein abnormalities at orthotopic liver transplantation.

Portal vein thrombosis is often considered a contraindication to orthotopic liver transplantation. We have analyzed the incidence, risk factors, management and outcome of patients with portal vein thrombosis undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation. During the period from October 1988 to October 1992 140 grafts were performed on 132 patients. Fourteen had portal vein thrombosis with either partial (n = 7) or complete (n = 7) occlusion of the portal vein at surgery. Portal vein thrombosis was more common in patients with autoimmune chronic active hepatitis (3/5 vs. 11/127, chi 2 = 13.3, P < 0.001), cryptogenic cirrhosis (4/12 vs. 10/120, chi 2 = 7.2, P < 0.01), or those with tumors (6/22 vs. 10/110, chi 2 = 5.7, P < 0.05). In 13 of the 14 portal inflow was reestablished by flushing, balloon thrombectomy, or passage of a graduated dilator. In one patient complete fibrous obliteration necessitated a portal vein to right gastroepiploic vein anastomosis. On follow-up there have been 6 deaths in this group (6/14 = 43%) from recurrent cancer (n = 1), sepsis (n = 4), and cardiac and renal failure (n = 1). Four of these 6 patients had confirmation of PV patency on imaging. The remaining 8 patients are alive and well (median follow-up 37 months, range 6-53 months). Post-transplant portal vein thrombosis occurred in 3 of the 14 patients (21%) with a portal vein abnormality at surgery and in two of the 118 patients with a normal portal vein (3/14 vs. 2/118, chi 2 = 8.5, P < 0.01). Four of the 5 cases were successfully treated by surgical thrombectomy.