Exchange rate volatility, corruption, and economic growth.

This study assesses the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth using a panel of 194 countries for the period 1995-2019. We resort to dynamic panel data models considering the exchange rate volatility estimated based on GARCH models as an explanatory variable, along with some control variables such as the level of economic openness and financial development, investment, government spending, and the expected level of education. Countries are grouped according to the level of corruption of the governments. The estimates from both Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments are obtained. The results consistently show a significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth, which diminishes as the financial system develops. An important finding is that the effect of volatility is lower in high-corruption countries, which could be because they are used to dealing with the economic instability associated with low levels of governance and incorporate it as part of their costs.

Bayesian coalescent inference of hepatitis A virus populations: evolutionary rates and patterns.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is a hepatotropic member of the family Picornaviridae. Previous studies suggested that HAV may evolve more slowly than other members of the family. To estimate HAV substitution rates precisely, we used a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach on temporally sampled HAV VP1 full-length sequences from strains isolated in France. A mean rate of evolutionary change of 9.76 x 10(-4) nucleotide substitution per site per year was found. The results also revealed that the synonymous rate found for HAV is lower than that of other members of the family. Bayesian skyline plots revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections in 1996, coinciding with the introduction of HAV vaccine.

Inferring parameters shaping amino acid usage in prokaryotic genomes via Bayesian MCMC methods.

Molar content of guanine plus cytosine (G + C) and optimal growth temperature (OGT) are main factors characterizing the frequency distribution of amino acids in prokaryotes. Previous work, using multivariate exploratory methods, has emphasized ascertainment of biological factors underlying variability between genomes, but the strength of each identified factor on amino acid content has not been quantified. We combine the flexibility of the phylogenetic mixed model (PMM) with the power of Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to obtain a novel evolutionary picture of amino acid usage in prokaryotic genomes. We implement a Bayesian PMM which incorporates the feature that evolutionary history makes observed data interdependent. As in previous studies with PMM, we present a variance partition; however, attention is also given to the posterior distribution of "systematic effects" that may shed light about the relative importance of and relationships between evolutionary forces acting at the genomic level. In particular, we analyzed influences of G + C, OGT, and respiratory metabolism. Estimates of G + C effects were significant for amino acids coded by G + C or molar content of adenine plus thymine (A + T) in first and second bases. OGT had an important effect on 12 amino acids, probably reflecting complex patterns of protein modifications, to cope with varying environments. The effect of respiratory metabolism was less clear, probably due to the already reported association of G + C with aerobic metabolism. A "heritability" parameter was always high and significant, reinforcing the importance of accommodating phylogenetic relationships in these analyses. "Heritable" component correlations displayed a pattern that tended to cluster "pure" G + C (A + T) in first and second codon positions, suggesting an inherited departure from linear regression on G + C.