Incidence rates of endometrial hyperplasia, endometrial cancer and hysterectomy from 1980 to 2003 within a large prepaid health plan.

Obesity strongly increases the risk of endometrial cancer and is projected to increase current and future endometrial cancer incidence. In order to fully understand endometrial cancer incidence, one should also examine both hysterectomy, which eliminates future risk of endometrial cancer, and endometrial hyperplasia (EH), a precursor that prompts treatment (including hysterectomy). Hysterectomy and EH are more common than endometrial cancer, but data on simultaneous temporal trends of EH, hysterectomy and endometrial cancer are lacking. We used linked pathology, tumor registry, surgery and administrative datasets at the Kaiser Permanente Northwest Health Plan to calculate age-adjusted and age-specific rates, 1980-2003, of EH only (N = 5,990), EH plus hysterectomy (N = 904), hysterectomy without a diagnosis of EH or cancer (N = 14,926) and endometrial cancer (N = 1,208). Joinpoint regression identified inflection points and quantified annual percentage changes (APCs). The EH APCs were -5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -7.4% to -3.2%) for 1980-1990, -12.9% (95% CI = -15.6% to -10.1%) for 1990-1999 and 2.4% (95% CI = -6.6% to 12.2%) for 1999-2003. The EH-plus-hysterectomy APCs were -8.6% (95% CI = -10.6% to -6.5%) for 1980-2000 and 24.5% (95% CI = -16.5% to 85.7%) for 2000-2003. Hysterectomy rates did not significantly change over time. The endometrial cancer APCs were -6.5% (95% CI = -10.3% to -2.6%) for 1980-1988 and 1.4% (95% CI = -0.2% to 3.0%) for 1988-2003. Hysterectomy rates were unchanged, but increased endometrial cancer incidence after 1988 and the reversal, in 1999, of the longstanding decline in EH incidence could reflect the influence of obesity on endometrial neoplasia.

Absolute risk of endometrial carcinoma during 20-year follow-up among women with endometrial hyperplasia.

PURPOSE The severity of endometrial hyperplasia (EH)-simple (SH), complex (CH), or atypical (AH)-influences clinical management, but valid estimates of absolute risk of clinical progression to carcinoma are lacking. Materials and METHODS We conducted a case-control study nested in a cohort of 7,947 women diagnosed with EH (1970-2002) at one prepaid health plan who remained at risk for at least 1 year. Patient cases (N = 138) were diagnosed with carcinoma, on average, 6 years later (range, 1 to 24 years). Patient controls (N = 241) were matched to patient cases on age at EH, date of EH, and duration of follow-up, and they were counter-matched to patient cases on EH severity. After we independently reviewed original slides and medical records of patient controls and patient cases, we combined progression relative risks (AH v SH, CH, or disordered proliferative endometrium [ie, equivocal EH]) from the case-control analysis with clinical censoring information (ie, hysterectomy, death, or left the health plan) on all cohort members to estimate interval-specific (ie, 1 to 4, 5 to 9, and 10 to 19 years) and cumulative (ie, through 4, 9, and 19 years) progression risks. Results For nonatypical EH, cumulative progression risk increased from 1.2% (95% CI, 0.6% to 1.9%) through 4 years to 1.9% (95% CI, 1.2% to 2.6%) through 9 years to 4.6% (95% CI, 3.3% to 5.8%) through 19 years after EH diagnosis. For AH, cumulative risk increased from 8.2% (95% CI, 1.3% to 14.6%) through 4 years to 12.4% (95% CI, 3.0% to 20.8%) through 9 years to 27.5% (95% CI, 8.6% to 42.5%) through 19 years after AH. CONCLUSION Cumulative 20-year progression risk among women who remain at risk for at least 1 year is less than 5% for nonatypical EH but is 28% for AH.

Comparison of HPV-based assays with Papanicolaou smears for cervical cancer screening in Morelos State, Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of human papillomavirus (HPV) assays with conventional Pap cytology for cervical cancer (CC) screening in Mexico. METHODS: Pap smears, self-collected vaginal specimens (SS) for HPV testing, and clinician-collected cervical specimens (CS) for HPV testing were obtained from 7868 women, aged 15-85 years old, attending CC screening at the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) between May and October, 1999. SS and CS specimens were screened for oncogenic HPV DNA by Hybrid Capture 2. Women who received cytological interpretations of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS), and/or a positive HPV test were referred for colposcopy and histologic studies. The relative estimates for sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of each test were calculated using histological diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 2 or 3, or CC histological diagnosis. RESULTS: Oncogenic HPV detection rate was 11.6% for SS, and 9.3% for CS. Pap smear abnormalities were observed in 2.4% of the women. Of 1147 women who had at least one abnormal test result, 88.5% underwent colposcopy, and 101 biopsy-confirmed CIN2/3 or cancer cases were identified. The relative sensitivity estimates for the Pap test, SS and CS were 59.4% (95% CI: 49.2-68.9), 71.3% (95% CI: 61.3-79.6), and 93.1% (95% CI: 85.8-96.9), respectively, while the specificities were 98.3% (95% CI: 98.0-98.6), 89.2% (95% CI: 88.5-89.9), and 91.8% (95% CI: 91.2-92.4), respectively. The positive predictive values of Pap, SS and CS were 36.1, 9.1 and 14.9, the colposcopy referrals needed to detect a case of CIN2/3 or cancer were 2.8, 11.0 and 6.7, respectively. DISCUSSION: Both HPV assays detected more cases of CIN2/3 or CC than Pap cytology alone. However, the HPV assays increased the number of colposcopy referrals. Our study suggests that HPV testing could be an effective way to improve the performance of CC screening.

Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance in liquid-based cytologic specimens: results of reflex human papillomavirus testing and histologic follow-up in routine practice with comparison of interpretive and probabilistic reporting methods.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing for high-risk types after Papanicolaou (Pap) smear interpretations of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) is a sensitive method for identifying women who harbor underlying high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). To the authors' knowledge, the application of HPV testing to ASCUS smears in routine practice with comparison of probabilistic and interpretive models of cytologic reporting has not been reported. METHODS: HPV DNA testing was performed reflexively on 216 liquid-based Pap smears that initially were interpreted as ASCUS. According to the interpretive model, ASCUS interpretations were modified and reported as either low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) or squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) when HPV positive and as reactive when HPV negative. Using the probabilistic model, ASCUS interpretations were maintained and simply reported with the HPV test result. Histologic follow-up data were obtained. RESULTS: Of the 216 women with ASCUS cytology, 142 (65.7%) were positive for high-risk HPV types. Of the 142 HPV-positive ASCUS smears, 101 (71.1%) were modified to an interpretation of LSIL (96 cases) or SIL (5 cases). Histologic follow-up of 55 of the 101 HPV-positive smears in the interpretive group and 26 of the 41 HPV-positive smears in the probabilistic group yielded similar percentages of lesions (18 lesions [32.7%] and 9 lesions [34.6%], respectively). However, there was a preponderance of low-grade lesions in the interpretive group (89%) but a nearly equal distribution of low-grade and high-grade lesions in the probabilistic group (56% and 44%, respectively); overall, 22% of the lesions were high-grade. Of the 74 HPV-negative ASCUS smears, 71 (96%) were modified to reactive and all 5 with histologic follow-up were judged as negative. CONCLUSIONS: Colposcopy with tissue studies was virtually restricted to HPV-positive cases, regardless of the reporting model used, suggesting that clinicians are basing colposcopy triage on the HPV test result rather than the definitiveness of the cytologic interpretation. This observation, the similar yield of lesions in both groups, and the significant risk of high-grade lesions argue against application of the interpretive model to HPV-tested ASCUS cases.

Improving cervical cancer screening in Mexico: results from the Morelos HPV Study

OBJETIVO: Describir algunos de los resultados del Estudio de VPH en Morelos. El objetivo principal del Estudio de VPH en Morelos es evaluar el uso de la prueba del virus de papiloma humano (VPH), en relación con la prueba de Papanicolaou, para el tamizaje de cáncer cervical. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: El Estudio de VPH en Morelos actualmente se está llevando a cabo en México, para examinar la posibilidad de usar la prueba de VPH para la detección de cáncer cervical. Se evaluó el uso de la prueba de VPH en muestras auto-tomadas vaginales y en muestras cervicales tomadas por un clínico. Se comparó la aceptabilidad del uso de la prueba de VPH en muestras auto-tomadas al uso del Papanicolaou. También se realizó un análisis de costo-efectividad y de costo-beneficio. RESULTADOS: Los resultados del Estudio de VPH en Morelos indican que la prueba de VPH tiene una mayor sensibilidad para detectar los casos de neoplasia intraepitelial cervical 2/3 y cáncer cervical que la prueba de Papanicolaou. Los resultados también indican una aceptabilidad menor al uso de la prueba de Papanicolaou que al uso de la prueba de VPH auto-tomada. Los resultados del análisis de costo-efectividad y el análisis de costo-beneficio indican que el tamizaje con la prueba de VPH en mujeres de 20-80 años de edad siempre es más costo-efectivo que el tamizaje con el Papanicolaou. CONCLUSIONES: Nuestros resultados sugieren que la prueba del VPH (ya sea auto-tomada o clínica) podría ser utilizada en los programas de detección y prevención de cáncer cervical, como un complemento o un sustituto efectivo de la prueba de Papanicolaou.