The effects of alcohol tax policies on alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders in Mainland of China: an interrupted time series analysis from 1961-2019.

Background: Overwhelming evidence suggests that increasing alcohol taxes is an effective strategy for curbing alcohol consumption. However, research on the effects of such strategies in low- and middle-income nations is limited.Objective: The aim is to explore the temporal effect of alcohol tax policy in China.Methods: We employ interrupted time series analysis to investigate the temporal effects of tax policy changes on alcohol consumption and related consequences in Mainland China from 1961 to 2019. The study population, the total population of mainland region of China, aged more than 15 years.Results: The results show that the volume tax policy, which was announced in 2000 and implemented in 2001, led to an immediate reduction in the alcohol consumption (coefficient = -0.429, p < .001). Following the implementation of higher alcohol taxes in 1998 and 2001, the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and related years lived with disability (YLDs) gradually decreased. The relaxation of tax policy in 2006 led to a significant increase in alcohol consumption, both immediately (coefficient = 0.406, p < .001) and in the middle term (coefficient = 0.495, p < .001), as well as contribute to an immediate or medium term significant increase in the prevalence of AUDs (coefficient = 0.038, p = .010; coefficient = 0.032, p < .001) and YLDs (coefficient = 4.363, p = .001; coefficient = 4.226, p < .001).Conclusion: This study demonstrates that changes in alcohol consumption and related consequences (increase or decrease) have followed corresponding changes in alcohol tax policies (easing or tightening), indicating that increasing alcohol taxes can be an effective strategy in China for controlling alcohol consumption and related harms.

Can alcohol policy prevent harms to women and children from men's alcohol consumption? An overview of existing literature and suggested ways forward.

The World Health Organization's list of cost-effective alcohol control policies is a widely-used resource that highlights strategies to address alcohol-related harms. However, there is more evidence on how recommended policies impact harms to people who drink alcohol-such as physical health problems caused by heavy alcohol use-than on secondhand harms inflicted on someone other than the person drinking alcohol, i.e., alcohol's harms to others. In this essay, we describe evidence of impacts of alcohol policy on harms to women and children resulting from men's alcohol consumption, as well as options for making policies more relevant for reducing intimate partner violence and child abuse. We begin with an overview of harms to women and children resulting from men's alcohol consumption and review cost-effective alcohol policies with potential to reduce these harms based on likely mechanisms of action. Next, we present a rapid review of reviews to describe existing evidence of impacts of these policies on the outcomes of physical violence, sexual violence, and child abuse and neglect. We found little evidence of systematic evaluation of impacts of these important alcohol policies on harms to women and children. Thus, we advocate for increased attention in evaluation research to the impacts of alcohol policies on harms experienced by women and children who are exposed to men who drink alcohol. We also argue for more consideration of a broader range of policies and interventions to reduce these specific types of harm. Finally, we present a conceptual model illustrating how alcohol policies may be supplemented with other interventions specifically tailored to reduce alcohol-related harms commonly experienced by women and children as a result of men's alcohol use.

Influencing the global governance of alcohol: Alcohol industry views in submissions to the WHO consultation for the Alcohol Action Plan 2022-2030.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Secretariat of the World Health Organization (WHO) conducted an open consultation, with public submissions, for the purpose of developing an Alcohol Action Plan to "strengthen implementation" of the WHO's 2010 Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol. The consultation process and public submissions provided an opportunity to critically examine alcohol industry perspectives and arguments in relation to the global governance of alcohol. METHODS: 48 alcohol industry submissions to the WHO's 2020 consultation were included for analysis. Directed content analysis was used to examine the policy positions and arguments made by industry actors. Thematic analysis was employed to further explore the framing of industry arguments. RESULTS: In framing their arguments, alcohol industry actors positioned themselves as important stakeholders in policy debates; differentiated "normal" drinking from consumption that merits intervention; argued that alcohol policy should be made at the national, rather than global, level; and supported industry self-regulation or co-regulation rather than cost-effective public health measures to prevent harms from alcohol. CONCLUSION: The alcohol industry's submissions to the WHO's 2020 consultation could be seen as efforts to stymie improvements in the global governance of alcohol, and repeats several framing strategies that the industry has used in other forums, both national and global. However, their arguments appear to have had little traction in the creation of the Alcohol Action Plan. Changes from the Working Document to the adopted Action Plan show little acceptance by WHO of industry arguments.

Beverage-specific consumption trends: A cross-country, cross-sectional comparison.

INTRODUCTION: The price of alcoholic beverages can vary for a range of reasons, including tax. Risky drinkers purchase more low-cost alcoholic drinks than moderate drinkers, contributing to beverage-specific risks for that category. The study aimed to examine the proportion of total alcohol consumption comprised by each beverage type and their correlates. Australian and New Zealand populations were compared, where drinking cultures are similar, but taxation of alcohol differs. METHOD: Data was taken from the International Alcohol Control study in Australia (N=1580) and New Zealand (N =1979), a cross national survey that asks questions on beverage specific alcohol consumption at a range of different locations. Tax rates were obtained from previous analyses run on the dataset. RESULTS: Ready to Drink (pre-mixed) beverages are more popular in New Zealand and the proportion of these drinks consumed out of total alcohol consumption by risky drinkers was correspondingly higher there. Conversely, the proportion of wine consumed by risky drinkers was higher in Australia. The consumption of spirits and beer by risky drinkers was similar in both countries. DISCUSSION: Differences found for the proportion of beverages consumed by risky drinkers between the countries are fairly well aligned with differences in the taxation of each drink type. Future adaptations in taxation systems should consider the impact of taxes on preferential beverage choice and associated harms.

Trends in alcohol expenditure in Australia from 1984 to 2015-2016: An exploratory study.

INTRODUCTION: Excessive alcohol use is associated with non-communicable diseases and social problems, such as work absence, financial problems and family violence. Expenditure and expenditure shares on alcohol are valuable measures to monitor financial activities on this risk behaviour. The aim of this paper is to report trends in alcohol expenditure in Australia over the last two decades. METHODS: Data are from six waves of Australian Household Expenditure Surveys from 1984 to 2015-2016. We explored trends of alcohol expenditure among Australians and in different socio-demographic groups in the last 30 years. We further examined changes of expenditure on different on- and off-premises beverages over time. RESULTS: Absolute alcohol expenditure has remained the same between the 1980s and 2016, after accounting for inflation. However, a declining trend in relative alcohol expenditure as a proportion of total household expenditure was found across nearly all demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, employment, household income), except for women aged 45-54, who showed an increasing trend of alcohol expenditure after 1998-1999. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows declines in relative alcohol expenditure, which may reflect declines in alcohol's relative importance within the elements of the person's lifestyle they need to pay for and/or increased awareness of alcohol's health and social harms. Further longitudinal analysis should explore additional predictors of household expenditure on alcohol. Results suggest that current bi-annual indexation increases in alcohol tax should account for increases in income to ensure the effectiveness of pricing. Moreover, attention is needed to address drinking among middle-aged females.

"Harm per litre" as a concept and a measure in studying determinants of relations between alcohol consumption and harm.

The term "harm per litre" has been increasingly used in alcohol research in recent years as a concept and a comparative measure of alcohol-attributable harm in comparisons between environments, circumstances, and patterns of drinking. This essay discusses the origins of the term in connection with analyses in terms of patterns as well as levels of drinking and with concerns about differential harms from drinking different beverage types. Also discussed is the term's current primary usage, in the context of epidemiological concerns about differentially severe harms for poorer persons who drink. It is noted that these same concerns have been discussed, particularly in Britain, using the phrase "alcohol harm paradox". "Harm per litre" was initially most often used in comparisons between rates of alcohol-attributable harm by beverage type. After 2010, the expression was applied more broadly, particularly after its use in various World Health Organization-related discussions and documents. In addition, and especially from 2018 onwards when most of the papers using this term were published, it has been used in comparisons by socioeconomic status at the individual level, and by level of socioeconomic development at the country level. Almost all the findings indicate that people with lower socioeconomic status, and countries with lower average income, e.g., low income and lower-middle income countries, incur considerably higher harm per litre (with harm being expressed in disease burden and mortality) than upper middle-income and high-income countries. "Harm per litre" is a practicable and easy-to-understand concept to compare groups of individuals or countries, and to quantify health inequalities. The next important step will need to be elucidating a better causal understanding of the processes underlying these inequalities, with an emphasis on factors which can be most easily changed by interventions.

Using Direct and Indirect Estimates for Alcohol-Attributable Mortality: A Modelling Study Using the Example of Lithuania.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative risk assessments (CRAs) for alcohol use are based on indirect estimates of attributable harm, and usually combine country-specific exposure estimates and global risk relations derived from meta-analyses. CRAs for Eastern European countries, such as Lithuania, base their risk relations not on global risk relations, but on a large Russian cohort study. The availability of a direct estimate of alcohol-attributable mortality following the 2017 implementation of a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania has allowed a comparison of these indirect estimates with a country-specific gold standard. METHODS: A statistical modelling study compared direct (predictions based on a time-series methodology) and indirect (predictions based on an attributable-fraction methodology) estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality before and after a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania. Specifically, Russia-specific versus global relative risks were compared against the gold standard of time-series based predictions. RESULTS: Compared to direct estimates, indirect estimates markedly underestimated the reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality 12 months post intervention by at least 63%. While both of the indirect estimates differed markedly from the direct estimates, the Russia-specific estimates were closer to the direct estimates, primarily due to higher estimates for alcohol-attributable cardiovascular mortality. DISCUSSION: As all indirect estimates were markedly lower than direct estimates, current overall relative risks and price elasticities should be re-evaluated. In particular, global estimates should be replaced by new regional estimates based on cohort studies.

Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity-a summary of the third edition.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This article summarizes the findings and conclusions of the third edition of Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity. The latest revision of this book is part of a series of monographs designed to provide a critical review of the scientific evidence related to alcohol control policy from a public health perspective. DESIGN: A narrative summary of the contents of the book according to five major issues. FINDINGS: An extensive amount of epidemiological evidence shows that alcohol is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, disability and death in high-, middle- and low-income countries. Trends in alcohol products and marketing are described, indicating that a large part of the global industry has been consolidated into a small number of transnational corporations that are expanding their operations in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The main part of the book is devoted to a review of strategies and interventions designed to prevent or minimize alcohol-related harm. Overall, the most effective strategies to protect public health are taxation that decreases affordability and restrictions on the physical availability of alcohol. A total ban on alcohol marketing is also an effective strategy to reduce consumption. In addition, drink-driving counter-measures, brief interventions with at-risk drinkers and treatment of drinkers with alcohol dependence are effective in preventing harm in high-risk contexts and groups of hazardous drinkers. CONCLUSION: Alcohol policy is often the product of competing interests, values and ideologies, with the evidence suggesting that the conflicting interests between profit and health mean that working in partnership with the alcohol industry is likely to lead to ineffective policy. Opportunities for implementation of evidence-based alcohol policies that better serve the public good are clearer than ever before as a result of accumulating knowledge on which strategies work best.

Do alcohol control policies have the predicted effects on consumption? An analysis of the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Many population-based alcohol control policies are postulated to work via changes in adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC). However, since APC is usually assessed on a yearly basis, often there are not enough data to conduct interrupted time-series or other controlled analyses. The current dataset, with 21 years of observation from four countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland), had sufficient power to test for average effects and potential interactions of the World Health Organization's (WHO) three "best buys" for alcohol control: taxation increases leading to a decrease in affordability; reduced availability (via a decrease in opening hours of at least 20 %); and advertising and marketing restrictions. We postulated that the former two would have immediate effects, while the latter would have mid- to long-term effects. METHODS: Linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Taxation increases and availability reductions in all countries were associated with an average reduction in APC of 0.83 litres (ℓ) of pure alcohol per year (95 % confidence interval: -1.21 ℓ, -0.41 ℓ) in the same year, with no significant differences between countries. Restrictions on advertising and/or marketing had no significant immediate associations with APC (average effect 0.04 ℓ per year; 95 % confidence interval: -0.65 ℓ, 0.73 ℓ). Several sensitivity analyses corroborated these main results. CONCLUSIONS: The WHO "best buy" alcohol control policies of taxation increases and availability restrictions worked as postulated in these four northeastern European Union countries.

Beyond the Drinker: Alcohol's Hidden Costs in 2016 in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Drawing on a study of the range and magnitude of harms that alcohol caused to specific others in Australia, and on social and health agency statistics for collective costs, this article produces an analysis of the economic cost of alcohol's harm to others (AHTO) in Australia. METHOD: This study used a general population survey and routinely collected social response agencies' data to quantify different costs of AHTO, using methods consistent with International Guidelines for Estimating the Costs of Substance Abuse. This approach estimates costs for health care and social services, crime costs, costs of productivity loss, quality of life-year loss and other expenses, including both tangible costs (direct and indirect) and intangible costs of loss of quality of life (respondents' self-reported loss of health-related quality of life). RESULTS: The cost of AHTO in Australia was AUD$19.81 billion (95% CI [11.99, 28.34]), with tangible costs accounting for 58% of total costs ($11.45 billion, which is 0.68% of gross domestic product in 2016) and intangible costs of $8.36 billion. The costs to private individuals or households ($18.1 billion and 89% of total costs of AHTO) are greater than the costs to the government or society because of others' drinking in Australia. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents an estimation of the economic cost of harm from others' drinking. The economic costs from others' drinking are large and of much the same magnitude as the costs that drinkers impose on themselves, as found in previous studies. Preventing harm to others from drinking is important as a public health goal for both economic and humane reasons.

Learning from alcohol (policy) reforms in the Northern Territory (LEARNT): protocol for a mixed-methods study examining the impacts of the banned drinker register.

INTRODUCTION: The Banned Drinker Register (BDR) was reintroduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in September 2017. The BDR is a supply reduction measure and involves placing people who consume alcohol at harmful levels on a register prohibiting the purchase, possession and consumption of alcohol. The current study aims to evaluate the impacts of the reintroduction of the BDR, in the context of other major alcohol policy initiatives introduced across the NT such as Police Auxiliary Liquor Inspectors and a minimum unit price for alcohol of US$1.30 per standard drink. METHODS AND ANALYSES: The Learning from Alcohol (policy) Reforms in the Northern Territory project will use a mixed-methods approach and contain four major components: epidemiological analysis of trends over time (outcomes include health, justice and social welfare data); individual-level data linkage including those on the BDR (outcomes include health and justice data); qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the NT (n≥50); and qualitative interviews among people who are, or were previously, on the BDR, as well as the families and communities connected to those on the BDR (n=150). The impacts of the BDR on epidemiological data will be examined using time series analysis. Linked data will use generalised mixed models to analyse the relationship between outcomes and exposures, utilising appropriate distributions. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approvals have been obtained from NT Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC), Central Australia HREC and Deakin University HREC. In addition to peer-reviewed publications, we will report our findings to key organisational, policy, government and community stakeholders via conferences, briefings and lay summaries.

Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques.

AIMS: To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. METHODS: Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

The impact of alcohol taxation changes on unrecorded alcohol consumption: A review and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: The diverse forms of unrecorded alcohol, defined as beverage alcohol not registered in official statistics in the country where it is consumed, comprise about one fourth of all alcohol consumed worldwide. Since unrecorded alcohol is usually cheaper than registered commercial alcohol, a standard argument against raising alcohol excise taxes has been that doing so could potentially result in an increase in unrecorded consumption. This contribution examines whether increases in taxation have in fact led to increases in consumption of unrecorded alcohol, and whether these increases in unrecorded alcohol should be considered to be a barrier to raising taxes. A second aim is to outline mitigation strategies to reduce unrecorded alcohol use. METHODS: Narrative review of primary and secondary research, namely case studies and narrative and systematic reviews on unrecorded alcohol use worldwide. RESULTS: Unrecorded alcohol consumption did not automatically increase with increases in taxation and subsequent price increases of registered commercial alcohol. Instead, the level of unrecorded consumption depended on: a) the availability and type of unrecorded alcohol; b) whether such consumption was non-stigmatized; c) the primary population groups which consumed unrecorded alcohol before the policy change; and d) the policy measures taken. Mitigation strategies are outlined. CONCLUSIONS: Potential increases in the level of unrecorded alcohol consumption should be considered in the planning and implementation of substantial increases in alcohol taxation. However, unrecorded consumption should not be considered to be a principal barrier to implementing tax interventions, as evidence does not indicate an increase in consumption if mitigation measures are put in place by governments.

Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-time Economy Monitoring (QUANTEM): Rationale and overview.

This commentary introduces the special section on the outcomes of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-time Economy Monitoring project and outlines the political and policy context of the interventions put in place under the Queensland government's Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence strategy. The development of the strategy was informed by alcohol policy initiatives trialled in other major Australian cities over the past two decades. The articles in this special section examine the impact of the Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence policy stages on alcohol-related harms and local economies across selected entertainment precincts (Safe Night Precincts). A rich array of data were utilised, including administrative health and justice data, data reflective of nightlife trading (i.e. foot traffic data, ID scanner data and live music performances) and street surveys. Findings have implications for research, policy and practice and demonstrate the need for comprehensive evaluations that can accommodate the complexities of modern alcohol policy in Australia.

Summarising the impacts of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-Time Economy (QUANTEM) project.

This closing commentary to the special section presents an overview of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-Time Economy Monitoring evaluation findings in comparison to those from other jurisdictions where similar interventions have been implemented (such as Sydney and Newcastle), and especially with previous studies that have used similar evaluation methodologies, such as the Dealing with Alcohol and the Night-Time Economy study. Overall, the articles documented promising reductions in alcohol-related harm, building on the existing evidence base for multi-pronged interventions in entertainment districts. Importantly, this is the first comprehensive investigation to also look at impacts on nightlife-related business and findings demonstrated, that there were improvements for many businesses. There are substantial policy implications for Queensland and other jurisdictions (nationally and globally) wanting to reduce late night alcohol-related harm in entertainment districts.

Classifying Alcohol Control Policies with Respect to Expected Changes in Consumption and Alcohol-Attributable Harm: The Example of Lithuania, 2000-2019.

Due to the high levels of alcohol use, alcohol-attributable mortality and burden of disease, and detrimental drinking patterns, Lithuania implemented a series of alcohol control policies within a relatively short period of time, between 2008 and 2019. Based on their expected impact on alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable harm, as well as their target population, these policies have been classified using a set of objective criteria and expert opinion. The classification criteria included: positive vs. negative outcomes, mainly immediate vs. delayed outcomes, and general population vs. specific group outcomes. The judgement of the alcohol policy experts converged on the objective criteria, and, as a result, two tiers of intervention were identified: Tier 1-highly effective general population interventions with an anticipated immediate impact; Tier 2-other interventions aimed at the general population. In addition, interventions directed at specific populations were identified. This adaptable methodological approach to alcohol control policy classification is intended to provide guidance and support for the evaluation of alcohol policies elsewhere, to lay the foundation for the critical assessment of the policies to improve health and increase life expectancy, and to reduce crime and violence.

Alcohol control policy measures and all-cause mortality in Lithuania: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol use has been identified as a major risk factor for burden of mortality and disease, particularly for countries in eastern Europe. During the past two decades, several countries in this region have implemented effective alcohol policy measures to combat this burden. The aim of the current study was to measure the association between Lithuania's alcohol control policies and adult all-cause mortality. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series methodology by means of general additive models. SETTING: Lithuania. PARTICIPANTS: Adult population of Lithuania, aged 20 years and older. MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol control policies were ascertained via a document review of relevant legislation materials. Policy effects were evaluated as follows: (1) slope changes in periods of legislative (non-)activity with regard to alcohol control policy (analysis 1); (2) level changes of three interventions following recommendations of the World Health Organization (analysis 2); and (3) level changes of seven interventions judged a priori by an international panel of experts (analysis 3). Mortality was measured by sex-stratified and total monthly age-standardized rates of all-cause mortality for the adult population. FINDINGS: During the period 2001-18, effective alcohol control policy measures were implemented on several occasions, and in those years the all-cause mortality rate declined by approximately 3.2% more than in years without such policies. In particular, the implementation of increased taxation in 2017 was associated with reduced mortality over and above the general trend for men and in total for all analyses, which amounted to 1452 deaths avoided (95% confidence interval = -166 to -2739) in the year following the implementation of the policy. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol control policies in Lithuania appear to have reduced the overall adult all-cause mortality over and above secular trends.